Now that Week 2 of the NFL season has officially drawn to a close, fantasy managers have more data upon which they can make key roster decisions moving forward. This weekend’s proceedings may have provided further confirmation of interesting narratives that arose after Week 1. In other cases, they may have completely contradicted what happened last week, leaving many managers confused about a players’ season-long outlook or fantasy start sit decisions.
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In what follows, I’ll assess the eye-popping performances from Week 2 and attempt to outline the rest-of-season outlook for these players. As mentioned last week, it remains important to exercise a fair share of patience as we head into the third week of the NFL season. Two games represent a tiny sample size and there is still plenty of football to be played. Managers who stay level-headed despite weekly fluctuations in performance are primed to be successful in their respective leagues.
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Fantasy Football Risers
The rationale for selecting Malik Nabers in the 4th-5th round of fantasy drafts was based on his potential to be an elite target-earner in the Giants’ offense. This potential was realized in Week 2, as the rookie earned a staggering 64% target share against the Commanders. His 18 targets were at least 14 more than any of the remaining pass-catching options in this offense. Now that Nabers appears to have established a rapport with QB Daniel Jones, his fantasy outlook is bright.
Unfortunately, there are some caveats to Nabers’ 23.7 half-PPR fantasy points. A considerable portion of Nabers’ production came from a touchdown reception. While this Giants offense continues to perform as one of the league’s worst, touchdowns will be hard to come by. Jones has never thrown more than 24 touchdowns in any given season. Nabers also benefitted from facing arguably the league’s worst secondary. He continuously got the better of the Commanders’ sub-par cornerbacks and amassed plenty of production as a result.
Malik Nabers should be a mainstay in fantasy lineups for the foreseeable future. His combination of target volume and explosive talent will make him a rock-solid WR2 on a week-to-week basis in fantasy football rankings. However, he’ll continue to lack league-winning upside as long as the Giants’ offensive woes persist.
The rookie learning curve tends to be quite steep for tight ends. For the most part, they take a couple years of acclimation before becoming key offensive figures. This rule of thumb clearly doesn’t apply for Brock Bowers, who’s already assumed a massive role in the Raiders’ offensive scheme. He tied Davante Adams for the team lead in targets during their upset victory over the Ravens this weekend.
Bowers is a special talent at the TE position. A highly-touted prospect during his days as a Georgia Bulldog, Bowers’ abilities have seamlessly translated to the NFL. He’s currently leading the TE position in receptions and receiving yards. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he’s averaged an impressive 2.64 yards per route run and earned a 80.5 receiving grade for his efforts. All told, Bowers is an ultra effective pass-catcher in an offense that severely lacks weapons.
The Raiders offense is trending towards a true one-two punch led by Adams and Bowers. Given Bowers’ undeniable talent, the rookie will make the absolute most of this opportunity. Moving forward, expect Bowers to be ranked as a top-five TE.
Kyler Murray became many experts’ favourite selection in the mid-to-late rounds of drafts due to the undeniable upside he possesses. Murray offers the same dual-threat ability the likes of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson do. He was nevertheless available for a fraction of the draft cost. Those who cashed in on this discount are reaping the benefits of great QB production thus far.
In Week 2, Kyler Murray led all QBs in PFF passing grade, big time throw percentage and passing touchdowns. His 59 rushing yards offered an additional boost to his fantasy output. The Cardinals offense appears to be firing on all cylinders, scoring a minimum of 28 points in consecutive contests.
After a couple of injury-riddled seasons, Murray appears to have finally earned a full bill of health. This is evident through the number of explosive runs he’s produced on seemingly broken plays. Murray’s ability as a runner rivals the elite at the position. His rushing production is quintessential for his fantasy value.
With the likes of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride continuing to emerge as stars at their respective positions, Murray is primed to earn plenty of fantasy points through the air as well. Drew Petzing appears to have developed the ideal scheme for Murray and the Cardinals’ group of weapons. Murray should be ranked as an upper-half QB1 for weeks to come.
Fantasy Football Fallers
After an offseason riddled with tumultuous contract negotiations, Brandon Aiyuk has gotten off to a slow start. What’s perhaps most concerning about Aiyuk’s struggles is his lack of volume. He’s currently being out-targeted by Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. He and Jauan Jennings are level on targets, with nine each.
Despite these early struggles, a return to form is imminent for Aiyuk. Much has been said about the impact of missing training camp in terms of physical shape and mental sharpness. As Aiyuk continues to accumulate practice sessions and snaps on the field, he’ll re-emerge as a productive fantasy football asset. Expect his target share to rise significantly in the coming weeks. This is nevertheless an elite offense that depends on Aiyuk’s prowess as a downfield separator.
In 2023, Brandon Aiyuk earned a PFF receiving grade of 92.3, averaged 3.01 yards per route run and scored seven receiving touchdowns. These metrics show the extent to which Aiyuk can be a difference-maker for the 49ers and fantasy managers. Aiyuk is the most glaring buy-low option on the market right now. Once he inevitably shakes off this rust, he’ll provide weekly WR2 production.
Zamir White’s perceived fantasy value was entirely contingent on volume. Over the offseason, most of us expected White to operate as the workhorse RB in Antonio Pierce’s run-heavy offensive scheme. However, White continues to cede touches to the likes of Alexander Mattison and Ameer Abdullah. Needless to say, the RB-by-committee approach currently being employed in the Raiders backfield is a nightmare for White managers.
Among 49 RBs with at least 10 carries, White currently ranks 49th in PFF run grade and 41st in yards per carry. If these inefficiencies persist, the Raiders will be forced to allocate their early-down carries elsewhere.
White’s lack of usage in the passing game is also an issue. Thus far, Alexander Mattison has had more passing snaps, more receiving yards and more first downs earned through the air. Mattison also received the team’s only carry from inside the 5-yard line, suggesting the latter will be favoured in red-zone situations.
AWhite is an inefficient back in an offense that will struggle to move the ball throughout the 2024 season. He’ll continue to cede receiving and red-zone touches to the other RBs on this depth chart. White is trending towards being a non-viable fantasy asset sooner rather than later.
Terry McLaurin has been the pillar of consistency throughout his career. Despite a never-ending carousel of QBs and offensive schemes, the former Ohio State WR has produced at a high level on a year-to-year basis. However, through two weeks, McLaurin has struggled to perform in the offensive system currently run in Washington.
The arrival of highly-touted QB prospect Jayden Daniels is likely going to benefit McLaurin long-term. McLaurin and the rest of the Commanders franchise have been in dire need of consistency at the position. That said, rookie QBs tend to struggle as they acclimate to the NFL. Historically speaking, they’ve failed to support consistent fantasy production for the WRs in their offenses.
Thus far, Kliff Kingsbury has been very conservative with Daniels. The offense has adopted a run-heavy offensive scheme and most of Daniels’ passing attempts have been near the line of scrimmage. Daniels’ average depth of target (aDOT) of 5.2 yards, per PFF, is far from ideal for McLaurin, who profiles as a downfield playmaker. The two simply don’t appear to be on the same page at the moment.
McLaurin is undoubtedly a talented WR. What’s more, he remains the unquestioned WR1 in this offense that figures to be in pass-heavy game scripts more often than not. That being said, it’s fair to question whether Daniels’ lack of experience and Kingsbury’s uninspiring play-calling will be too much for McLaurin to overcome. The coming weeks will be very telling for Scary Terry’s 2024 outlook. Fantasy managers should not panic just yet.
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