Week 4 brings the last slate of NFL football in September. As the 2024 fantasy landscape takes shape, managers must observe which teams are cohesive on offense. This provides insight into waiver wire moves and trades as the season goes on, a stretch where the most value is found in these player markets.
Below is the Week 4 review of NFL offensive pace & efficiency, including three offenses trending up, three offenses trending down, and a table detailing key efficiency statistics for all NFL teams.
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NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency: Week 4
*For more details on EPA, click here. The table below is sorted by EPA/play.
Offenses Trending Up
Washington Commanders
The Commanders made an offensive statement Monday night, scoring five touchdowns and converting one field goal attempt without having to punt. They are 3-0 atop the NFC East and most impressively, have yet to turn the ball over in 2024.
Jayden Daniels has been stellar in his first three NFL starts. His absurd completion percentage of 80.3% has fueled a Commanders offense that is second overall in EPA/play (0.21) and leads the league in EPA/run (0.18). Daniels has been sacked nine times and the Commanders are dead last in time to throw. It’s scary to consider what the rookie QB will be capable of if his offensive line improves. Terry McLaurin (18) and Zach Ertz (13) have received the bulk of the targets, and while Daniels has only thrown one touchdown to his receiving group, their fantasy futures look bright. If Washington can replicate what they’ve done on third down and boost their red zone conversion percentage (currently at 50.0%), the weapons Daniels has will impact fantasy lineups all season.
Brian Robinson Jr. leads the Commanders in rushing attempts at 46 and has managed 206 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He will carry the load if healthy, but Washington has two viable options in the backfield, with Austin Ekeler finishing Week 3 at 6.4 yards per carry. Both backs have been involved in the passing game; Ekeler has received nine targets, converting all of them for catches and tallying 121 receiving yards for an average of 13.4 yards per catch. The Commanders’ RB room may be a fantasy surprise, but having a piece of it could make the difference for a manager’s season. Washington leads the NFL in total rushing EPA (17.9), forcing these RBs into the game plan every week. Robinson and Ekeler are premiere trade targets early in the season.
Baltimore Ravens
While the Ravens are 1-2, their offense has steadily moved the ball in all three games. Baltimore is averaging an NFL-best 430.3 yards per game, primarily built from their running attack.
The new Ravens offensive line is clicking. Baltimore is gaining 2.6 yards before contact on each rushing attempt and they are second overall in EPA/run (0.15) and total rush EPA (15.9). Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are ahead of the 1,000-yard pace and Justice Hill is averaging over five yards per carry. Anyone getting consistent opportunities out of this backfield will have a fantasy impact; Jackson and Henry managers are unlikely to get the same rushing value back in a trade and Hill should be considered a high-end handcuff RB.
The passing game in Baltimore has been less consistent, but they remain positive in EPA/pass (0.03). The Ravens are tenth in the NFL in passing yardage per game (227) but are 21st in total passing plays, showing their ability to maximize throwing opportunities. Lamar Jackson is seeing pressure on 25.9% of snaps, he has taken only three sacks, and he’s protected the football. Flowers (22), Isaiah Likely (16), and Rashod Bateman (13) are the target leaders on the team, but their managers should take caution if they rely on them in lineups week to week. With the Ravens leaning on their backfield, their pass-catchers will show inconsistency with fantasy production but provide value in flex slots if the Ravens can maintain their red zone conversion rate of 60.0%.
Minnesota Vikings
Despite injuries to skill players, the Vikings are third in the NFL in points per game (28.3), trailing only the Bills and the Saints through three weeks. They are an early-season surprise at 3-0.
Minnesota is 11th overall in EPA/pass (0.03) but has an opportunity to become more efficient through the air. For a team with Justin Jefferson, this is a good place to be. Sam Darnold has thrown an NFL-leading eight touchdowns, but he has been sacked nine times. If the Vikings can reduce their QB pressure rate (40.0%), their efficiency through the air will improve and this throwing attack will take off. Minnesota has been elite extending their drives on third down, converting 45.7% of them. There will be no shortage of opportunities for Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and Jalen Nailor if this offensive line improves with more playing time together.
This Viking offense is balanced, with Aaron Jones off to a strong start on the ground. He is gaining an average of 5.4 yards per attempt and Minnesota has the number seven overall EPA/run (0.06). Jones’ season has been an interesting one for his managers; he has received 14 targets for 12 catches, 97 yards, and a touchdown. If he sees this type of usage and stays healthy, he could be a top-10 fantasy RB by year’s end. This running attack doesn’t jump out with yardage or touchdown totals, but it is consistent and complementary to what Darnold is doing through the air.
Jefferson will remain the fantasy bell cow out of Minnesota, but this depth chart should be monitored by all fantasy managers. The Vikings carry a red zone conversion rate of 70.0% with T.J. Hockenson likely returning by mid-season.
Offenses Trending Down
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts landed a win last week against the Bears, but they were one dimensional offensively. They scored all three of their touchdowns on the ground and their efficiency through the air retreated significantly.
Anthony Richardson must improve throwing the ball for this offense to get on track. He is dead-last among qualified QBs in completion percentage at 49.3%, which has brought the team’s EPA/pass (-0.35) down to 28th in the NFL. The Colts’ offensive line is giving Richardson time to throw; he has been sacked only four times, which is tied for the third-lowest total across the league. Despite this, Richardson leads the NFL with six interceptions and his Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt (ANY/A) is only 4.45. Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Adonai Mitchell are going to struggle in fantasy lineups with this type of QB play. This is clearly an issue with Richardson delivering the football accurately, and it’s something only he can fix. For the time being, Richardson’s fantasy upside is tied to scoring rushing touchdowns near the goal line.
Fortunately, Jonathan Taylor has been rock-solid for fantasy managers so far. He should see a lot of work considering the Colts EPA/run (0.12) is their only positive EPA statistic. The sustainability of this production is up in the air, however, as the Colts are converting only 32.3% of their third down chances. This is a bottom-10 conversion rate and with shortened drives, Taylor’s opportunities could dwindle.
Miami Dolphins
With Tua Tagovailoa out with a concussion, Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins are searching for answers in the early leg of the season. After a 24-3 loss to the Seahawks in Week 3, the Dolphins are 30th in EPA/play (-0.27) after they finished fourth overall in the category a season ago.
The prolific Dolphins offense is down to 32nd in points per game (11.0) through three weeks. They are inefficient at throwing, with an EPA/pass of -0.32 on top of 11 sacks allowed. A backup QB won’t help these numbers, but it also should be noted that the protection for Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle has not been good; Miami is 31st in time to throw. Issues up front coupled with Tua’s absence means Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle will be severely capped with their fantasy production. The Dolphins have converted only two of their eight trips to the red zone for touchdowns. With the uncertainty surrounding Tua’s return, Hill and Waddle can be shopped in trade markets for managers looking to mix up their rosters.
The ground game has been better for the Dolphins, but it’s nothing to write home about. Their total rushing EPA (-14.3) is 29th overall and they are running the ball on only 29.3% of their plays. De’Von Achane is seeing a lot of usage running the ball 43 times; Jeff Wilson is second on the team with eight attempts. This may work week to week for a period of time, but Achane will need to share the hits he is taking out of the backfield to avoid injury. Raheem Mostert is set to return soon and should help Achane conserve himself for more explosive plays on the ground and through the air.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars were embarrassed by the Bills on Monday night in a game that was over by halftime. They are now 0-3 with a total point differential of -45 and are only seven of 32 on third down conversions.
Trevor Lawrence‘s struggles are similar to those of Anthony Richardson. His completion percentage sits at 52.8% with only two touchdowns and an interception. The Jags are right in the middle of the NFL in time to throw and QB pressure percentage, so Lawrence needs to get it together. For a team throwing on over 60.0% of their plays, this is not a good combination. Rookie WR Brian Thomas is the only player in this receiving group that can be started in fantasy. He is averaging 17.2 yards per catch with a TD. Managers of Christian Kirk and Evan Engram need to find other options until this unit improves, and the Jags are currently sitting at 29th overall in EPA/pass (-0.36).
Travis Etienne is doing his part on the ground in Jacksonville, but he will have difficulty replicating his 2023 fantasy campaign with this offense’s struggles. The Jags are barely positive in EPA/run (0.01) and have gone four for 11 in the red zone. Etienne’s managers should expect an average of 10 to 12 fantasy points in each of the coming weeks.
Week 4 Matchups to Watch
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
The Texans will look to get their offense back on track Sunday against their division rival Jaguars. Jacksonville’s defense is in the bottom five in EPA/play allowed (0.11), EPA/pass allowed (0.19), and points per game allowed (28.3). Expect CJ Stroud and his weapons to have a big day.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers
This has the makings for a shootout, with both defenses performing inefficiently so far.
Despite the loss on Monday, the Bengals offense played well and they are now a top-10 team in EPA/play (0.05). Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase may take their frustrations out in Charlotte.
The Carolina offense looked like a different unit with Andy Dalton. They posted the sixth best EPA/play (0.18) in Week 3 and were third in total yardage (437).
2024 Efficiency Statistics (Weeks 1-3)
| Team | PPG | YPG | EPA/ Play | EPA/ Pass | EPA/ Run | RZ Conv % | ANY/A | QB Pressure % | Sacks | Turnovers |
| Buffalo Bills | 37.3 | 329 | 0.27 | 0.53 | 0.04 | 76.9% | 10.23 | 23.5% | 2 | 1 |
| Washington Commanders | 26.3 | 360 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 0.18 | 50.0% | 7.75 | 30.8% | 9 | 0 |
| New Orleans Saints | 34.3 | 343.3 | 0.14 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 75.0% | 9.57 | 31.4% | 3 | 3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 23.7 | 430.3 | 0.1 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 60.0% | 7.48 | 25.9% | 3 | 2 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 24.3 | 407.3 | 0.06 | 0.17 | -0.06 | 50.0% | 7.98 | 37.4% | 10 | 3 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 22.7 | 326.7 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 50.0% | 7.32 | 20.5% | 8 | 3 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 25 | 328 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 44.4% | 5.78 | 19.4% | 4 | 5 |
| New York Jets | 22.3 | 310.3 | 0.04 | 0.13 | -0.08 | 75.0% | 7.11 | 26.9% | 5 | 2 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 28.3 | 329.7 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 70.0% | 7.86 | 40.0% | 9 | 4 |
| Green Bay Packers | 25 | 391.7 | 0.03 | 0.11 | -0.01 | 30.0% | 8.19 | 28.7% | 5 | 2 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 27.3 | 345.3 | 0.03 | 0.08 | -0.03 | 66.7% | 7.16 | 27.5% | 6 | 3 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 23.3 | 411.7 | 0.02 | -0.01 | 0.04 | 42.9% | 5.62 | 29.5% | 7 | 6 |
| Detroit Lions | 20.7 | 399.7 | 0.01 | -0.09 | 0.11 | 38.5% | 5.32 | 30.4% | 4 | 4 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 24.3 | 344 | -0.04 | -0.02 | -0.07 | 50.0% | 5.99 | 35.4% | 8 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 19 | 309.3 | -0.06 | -0.1 | 0.01 | 46.2% | 6.15 | 34.8% | 10 | 2 |
| Houston Texans | 18.3 | 341 | -0.07 | -0.01 | -0.18 | 71.4% | 5.54 | 38.0% | 12 | 3 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 | 289 | -0.08 | 0.04 | -0.18 | 25.0% | 5.8 | 35.2% | 6 | 1 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 21.3 | 277 | -0.1 | -0.11 | -0.08 | 55.6% | 6.19 | 36.3% | 13 | 3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 16.3 | 307.3 | -0.12 | -0.03 | -0.23 | 44.4% | 6.11 | 37.8% | 5 | 4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 25.7 | 343.3 | -0.12 | -0.16 | -0.04 | 50.0% | 5.96 | 28.7% | 9 | 3 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 19.3 | 315.7 | -0.12 | -0.35 | 0.12 | 62.5% | 4.45 | 31.0% | 4 | 6 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 19.3 | 277.7 | -0.13 | -0.17 | -0.1 | 42.9% | 5.64 | 40.8% | 7 | 2 |
| New York Giants | 15 | 294.7 | -0.14 | -0.1 | -0.19 | 60.0% | 4.95 | 37.0% | 8 | 5 |
| New England Patriots | 13 | 246.3 | -0.14 | -0.28 | -0.01 | 33.3% | 3.7 | 44.8% | 11 | 1 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 13.3 | 276.3 | -0.22 | -0.36 | 0.01 | 36.4% | 4.38 | 34.5% | 12 | 3 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 19.3 | 295.7 | -0.23 | -0.09 | -0.56 | 71.4% | 5.52 | 35.2% | 12 | 5 |
| Denver Broncos | 17.3 | 292.7 | -0.23 | -0.33 | -0.07 | 27.3% | 3.41 | 32.3% | 4 | 6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 16.3 | 263 | -0.24 | -0.32 | -0.13 | 57.1% | 4.26 | 26.2% | 8 | 4 |
| Cleveland Browns | 16.7 | 248 | -0.25 | -0.37 | 0 | 100.0% | 3.23 | 40.4% | 16 | 4 |
| Miami Dolphins | 11 | 318.7 | -0.27 | -0.32 | -0.19 | 25.0% | 4.84 | 27.9% | 11 | 3 |
| Chicago Bears | 17.7 | 249.3 | -0.31 | -0.39 | -0.17 | 60.0% | 2.98 | 35.8% | 13 | 6 |
| Tennessee Titans | 16 | 260.3 | -0.33 | -0.5 | -0.03 | 50.0% | 3.06 | 47.0% | 15 | 8 |
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