Fantasy Football is predicated on offensive efficiency. Teams playing with pace and consistent execution give their players the best chances to score. Fantasy managers want those players in their lineup.

Throughout the 2024 NFL season, this article will analyze the efficiency metrics of NFL offenses and their impact on fantasy football each week. It will include a table outlining efficiency statistics for all 32 teams, an analysis of the offenses trending up and down and highlight games conducive to fantasy output.

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For those unfamiliar with EPA (expected points added), see here. The other metrics will include points per game, yards per game, red zone conversion percentage, adjusted net yards per attempt, QB pressure percentage, sacks and turnovers.

*Adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) is similar to adjusted yards per attempt, but factors in yards lost on sacks

NFL Offensive Pace & Efficiency

Offenses Trending Up

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs were efficient through the air in their 37-20 victory over the Commanders to open the season. Tampa Bay led the NFL in EPA/play in Week 1, adding an expected 0.25 points on each snap — for reference, the 49ers led the NFL last season in EPA/play at 0.11.

Baker Mayfield played well with the Bucs posting an EPA/pass of 0.69, the best in the NFL by a landslide. Of Tampa Bay’s 392 total yards, 280 came through the air and Mayfield banked four passing touchdowns. His 11.61 ANY/A also led the NFL in Week 1. Fantasy managers can expect the Bucs to continue to throw this season. Their EPA/run of -0.2 was the only negative statistic they registered.

The Bucs did not hurt themselves offensively last week, allowing only one sack with zero turnovers. Only six teams out-gained Tampa Bay in total yardage and they were fourth overall in yards per play at 6.43. If the protection for Mayfield holds, this will be a prolific passing attack in 2024. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin managers should be optimistic. Mayfield is rostered in only 52.9% of leagues on ESPN, so hit up your waiver wire.

Buffalo Bills

The Bills’ offense moved the ball against the Cardinals, scoring 34 points on 352 total yards. They were positive in all EPA categories on top of six trips to the red zone, four of which were converted for touchdowns.

Buffalo is off to a good start protecting Josh Allen as he went 18-of-23 throwing, was pressured on 24.0% of snaps and was sacked only twice. Combining solid protection with Allen’s experience and arm talent will bode well for this offense putting up points.

James Cook led the team in rushing attempts with 19, but Allen stole the show near the goal line, scoring two rushing touchdowns. Cook managers must monitor his opportunities when the Bills are inside the 10-yard line. The targets on the day were distributed evenly between Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, Mack Hollins, Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox and Cook. The Bills have an offense managers will want exposure to this season, but the jury is out on which pieces to roster. Keep an eye on the usage of their weapons in the first four weeks. Fantasy start sit decisions might be tough week to week.

Houston Texans

The Texans took on their division rival Colts in their first outing of the year. The offense was explosive putting up 417 total yards and led the NFL in total plays run with 76. Houston was balanced in their attack with an EPA/pass of 0.19 and an EPA/run of 0.1. This yielded an EPA/play of 0.14, which was fifth overall in Week 1.

The efficiency on third down and in the red zone stands out for the Texans. They were 7-of-14 on third down and cashed in all three trips to the red zone for touchdowns. On the other hand, the protection of C.J. Stroud is an area for improvement. He faced pressure on 38.9% of plays and was sacked four times. This headwind is a testament to what this offense is capable of allowing their young QB more time to throw as they managed 29 points regardless.

Joe Mixon looks to be an anchor-type RB for fantasy lineups. He earned 30 rushing attempts, tallied 159 yards and scored a touchdown. His individual EPA/rush was 3.0. The tape will show this coaching staff how valuable Mixon’s carries were. While Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs all received at least six targets, Nico Collins separated himself from the group with 117 receiving yards and a monstrous EPA/reception of 8.8. Collins’ catch rate was 75% as well, Stroud should be looking his way all year.

Offenses Trending Down

Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals laid an egg offensively in Week 1 scoring only 10 points. They posted the third-worst yardage total in the NFL (224). Cincinnati wants to throw as 32 of their 48 total plays came through the air. They failed their own game plan, however, with an EPA/pass of -0.42, which ranked 25th in the NFL last week.

While Joe Burrow was pressured on only 18.8% of plays, the Bengals surrendered three sacks. They also lost a pair of fumbles, one from TE Tanner Hudson and one from WR Charlie Jones. This type of sack/turnover combination will cap any NFL offense. This is even more concerning for the Bengals with both fumbles coming from pass-catchers.

With an offense anticipated to be high-scoring, the early leg of the season will be interesting to watch for this team. It appears Ja’Marr Chase‘s targets will be limited until there is some path forward with his contract extension. Tee Higgins remains hampered with a hamstring injury. Either way, the offense was disappointing after converting 4-of-11 third downs and making only two trips to the red zone.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns are staring at issues at QB and in protection. Deshaun Watson was sacked six times on Sunday, the most in the NFL. He saw pressure on 49.0% of plays and finished 24-of-45 for 169 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions. The Browns had nothing going through the air; their -0.46 EPA/pass was 27th overall and Watson’s ANY/A was tied for 31st. These were major factors in Cleveland converting only 2-of-15 third downs. The Browns punted six times and turned the ball over on downs twice.

The only player with upside ahead of Week 2 is Jerome Ford. The Browns’ coaching staff may be going to the ground more this week as their EPA/rush was far better than the pass at -0.19.

If Deshaun Watson performs similarly this week, all Browns pass-catchers will be capped for fantasy production. Their managers may need to hold out until Jameis Winston is called upon.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders only outscored one team last week, the New York Giants. Las Vegas finished in the middle of the pack in EPA/pass and EPA/run, but their EPA/play ranked 27th due to four sacks and three turnovers.

Gardner Minshew threw one interception and lost a fumble. Zamir White lost a fumble of his own, which begs the question of how reliable these players are. They will both be big pieces of this unit moving forward and Minshew needs more time to throw. He saw 14 total pressures last week — tied for third-most in the NFL.

If the protection issues continue for the Raiders, there is cause for concern for managers of Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers and White. Minshew was allowed only 2.64 seconds to throw in Week 1, a trend that will keep the Raiders from working the ball downfield. This is a factor for this offense staying on the field as well. The Raiders converted only five of their 14 opportunities on third down for a rate of 35.7%.

Matchups to Watch

Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Lions should have an advantage with their offensive efficiency against the Tampa Bay defense. Tampa Bay was in the bottom 10 last week in EPA/play allowed and the Lions’ offense was sixth-best in EPA/play.

The Lions gave up 304 yards through the air to the Rams, so this should play into Tampa Bay’s strengths.

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

The Rams threw on nearly 70% of their plays in Week 1. The Cardinals were tied for 25th in yardage allowed on pass plays. With Puka Nacua out, Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson are back-end Flex options to consider when deciding fantasy football start sit questions.

Efficiency Statistics