Week 4 got underway on Thursday night, but Sunday has the main DFS slate. Two game stacks stand out from the pack on an intriguing slate, and one is comfortably the most exciting. The suggested games to stack are the source for many of the best studs and values/punts. However, a workhorse running back and a dual-threat quarterback are also intriguing studs and values/punts, respectively. Readers with questions about this week’s DFS slate or managed leagues should join me on Friday at 3:00 p.m. ET in the general AMA channel at Discord.
NFL Week 4 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Cardinals vs. Commanders
Spread/Total: ARI -3.5/50.5 Points
The Cardinals and Commanders game has the only over/under total above 50 points this week, and it's far and away the most inviting game to stack. It will be chalky. However, not all chalk is bad, and there are ways to differentiate from others stacking this contest.
Both quarterbacks are tantalizing selections as dual-threat weapons. Jayden Daniels (171 rushing yards) and Kyler Murray (161 rushing yards) are second and third among quarterbacks in rushing yards this season, with the former scampering for three rushing touchdowns. They're also spinning it well. Among 34 quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks this season, Murray has Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) sixth-highest passing grade, and Daniels is 13th. Murray has averaged 211.7 passing yards per game with five touchdown passes and one interception, and Daniels has averaged 221.3 with two and zero. Thus, both quarterbacks are popping in the lineup optimizer. Murray is projected as the QB1 at DraftKings and FanDuel, and Daniels is the QB2 at DraftKings and the QB4 at FanDuel.
Conveniently, Murray and Daniels have a few stacking options. In addition, James Conner and Brian Robinson are outstanding bring-backs from Daniels and Murray, respectively. Conner is a workhorse, and Robinson should have an expanded role against a run-funnel defense with Austin Ekeler ruled out. According to RotoViz's pace app, Washington's 50% situation-neutral rush percentage is tied for the eighth-highest mark this year, and Arizona's defense has faced the highest situation-neutral rush rate (58%).
There are many ways to stack this contest, including a mix of high-salary studs, middle-salary alternatives and values/punts. Assuming Trey McBride can't clear the NFL's concussion protocol, Elijah Higgins is a DFS option only at DraftKings, where he's eligible at tight end. He's a non-option at FanDuel, where he's eligible at wide receiver.
Game: Panthers vs. Bengals
Spread/Total: CIN -4.0/47.0 Points
I'm not reinventing the wheel with the second game-stack suggestion. The Panthers and Bengals have the second-highest over/under total on the slate. Nevertheless, this contest should attract less investment than the Cardinals and Commanders, making it an intriguing pivot or option to stack alongside that contest.
Andy Dalton and Joe Burrow aren't dual-threat quarterbacks like the previously touted signal-callers. However, they're both coming off 300-plus-yard passing efforts. Dalton has exceeded 300 passing yards in his only two starts for the Panthers, one last year and the other last week. Burrow has played much better since an ugly showing in Week 1. Each quarterback has a target-hog No. 1 wide receiver, and those wideouts are forthcoming in the studs and the values/punts section.
Still, Xavier Legette, with Adam Thielen on the Injured Reserve (IR), Andrei Iosivas and Erick All are intriguing value options. Using them as part of double-stacks with their pocket-passing quarterback also makes sense since Dalton and Burrow must throw for multiple touchdowns, absent a shocking rushing touchdown, to deliver value.
Zack Moss is also one of the best value options at running back on the slate. According to PFF, Moss has handled 33 of Cincinnati's backfield's 47 rush attempts (70.2%) and played 94 passing snaps with 69 routes versus 29 and 23 for Chase Brown this season. Finally, Moss has handled all seven of Cincinnati's backfield's rushing opportunities inside the 10-yard line this season. So, Moss has a stranglehold on Cincinnati's most valuable backfield roles, namely the receiving and the goal-line work.
Core Studs
- McBride hasn't practiced this week, making it unlikely he'll clear all the steps of the NFL's concussion protocol. Marvin Harrison would be a high-end pick if McBride suited up, but he's a potential slate-breaker if he soaks up some of McBride's vacated targets. Of course, MHJ already has eye-catching underlying data. He's 15th among wideouts in target share (25.6%) and third in air yards (365). The rookie wideout also has the optimal fantasy matchup. Per Pro Football Reference, the Commanders have coughed up the most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season.
- Ja'Marr Chase, predictably, eviscerated Washington's secondary on Monday night. He had seven targets, six receptions, 118 receiving yards and two touchdowns against the Commanders. He's in another favorable matchup this week. The Panthers have ceded the 13th-most DraftKings and the 14th-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts in 2024. Rashid Shaheed had three receptions, 73 receiving yards and one touchdown in a blowout win against the Panthers in Week 1. Quentin Johnston trounced them for five receptions, 51 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Week 2. In Week 3, Tre Tucker had seven receptions, 96 receiving yards and one touchdown, followed by seven, 62 and one for Jakobi Meyers and four, 40 and zero for Davante Adams. Chase should have little trouble smashing them, especially if Cincinnati's lousy defense drags their offense into another shootout.
- Jordan Mason is included as a core stud because he's a must-use player in cash games at DraftKings and an excellent GPP pick at both DFS providers. He's grossly mispriced at DraftKings as San Francisco's bell-cow running back. Mason's 79% snap share is the fourth-highest among running backs this season. He's parlayed his playing time into 108.0 rushing yards per game, two rushing touchdowns, four targets, 1.3 receptions per game and 6.7 receiving yards per game. Mason is in a blow-up spot since the 49ers are double-digit home favorites against the lowly Patriots. In a double-digit beatdown last week, the Patriots yielded 115 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, seven receptions and 42 receiving yards to Gang Green's running backs.
Value Plays/Punts
- Diontae Johnson was held out of Thursday's practice with a groin injury but will reportedly practice on Friday. He's an elite DFS pick if the groin injury doesn't sideline him. Dalton fed Thielen in his only start last year and peppered Chris Olave when he started for the Saints in 2022. The Red Rifle picked up where he left off, funneling targets to Carolina's No. 1 wide receiver last week. Among wide receivers in Week 3, Johnson was third in target share (37.8%), eighth in air yards (124), tied for fourth in receptions (eight), second in receiving yards (122) and had a touchdown. Finally, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Johnson had the sixth-highest first-read target percentage (44.8%) in Week 3.
- Justin Fields has driven Pittsburgh's bus this season without a huge fantasy showing yet. That could change this week. Fields had a season-high 245 passing yards against the Chargers last week and has a mouthwatering matchup against Indianapolis's injury-ravaged but also pathetic defense. Caleb Williams had 267 passing yards, zero passing touchdowns and two interceptions through two games before carving up the Colts for 363, two and two. The Colts have also shown susceptibility on the ground against mobile quarterbacks, ceding 41 rushing yards on six attempts to Malik Willis in Week 2. Fields has a path to a big showing through the air and on the ground this week. As a result, he has the second-highest value score among quarterbacks at DraftKings and the highest at the position on FanDuel. Fields's ceiling is tailor-made for GPPs, but he's also an ideal target in cash games.
- The elite tight ends haven't gotten the job done this year. So, saving salary is appealing. Zach Ertz is a value-salary option attached to a projected shootout. He's also playing relatively well. Among tight ends this season, Ertz is 12th in routes (82), tied for ninth in targets (13), tied for sixth in receptions (12) and tied for sixth in receiving yards (128). He's not a dynamic player. Still, Ertz is involved in Washington's passing attack. He's also seventh among tight ends in first-read target percentage (19.6%) this season. Ertz is unlikely to explode for a massive fantasy-scoring output, but he's a rock-solid punt.
Week 4 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Caleb Williams: 222.5 Passing Yards - Less (Sleeper) (1.78x)
Caleb Williams: 222.5 Passing Yards - Lower (Underdog)
Williams feasted in a get-right matchup last week. Yet, his 363 passing yards were inflated by a 44-yard hail mary at the end of the half. Obviously, 319 passing yards would be comfortably over his prop, but last week was the outlier in Williams' rookie season. He had only 93 passing yards against the Titans in Week 1 and 174 versus the Texans in Week 3. Keenan Allen has been limited in practice due to his heel injury, and Rome Odunze popped up as a limited participant on Thursday due to a hip injury. Williams' passing outlook would be dampened by either Allen or Odunze being hampered by their injuries this week. Finally, the Rams have had a run-funnel defense this season, tying for the second-highest situation-neutral rush percentage (55%) faced.
James Conner: 71.5 Rushing Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.75x)
James Conner: 71.5 Rushing Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Washington's pass defense gets most of the attention for its ineptitude, but they can't stop the run, either. According to Pro Football Reference, the Commanders have coughed up the 12th-most rushing yards per game (103.3) at 5.17 yards per carry to running backs this year. Conner had 21 rush attempts for 122 rushing yards in Arizona's only win this year against the Rams in Week 2, and the Cardinals are favorites at home this week. The game script should be optimal for the veteran running back to exceed 71.5 rushing yards against the Commanders.
Diontae Johnson: 62.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.66x)
Diontae Johnson: 62.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Johnson's elite underlying stats in Dalton's start last week were highlighted above. He also has a tasty matchup this week. The Bengals didn't allow much receiving production to New England's lackluster group of wideouts in Week 1. Since then, No. 1 wide receivers have barbecued them. Rashee Rice had six targets, five receptions and 75 receiving yards against Cincinnati in Week 2. In Week 3, Terry McLaurin had six targets, four receptions and 100 receiving yards. Johnson should be the next No. 1 wide receiver to give the Bengals fits, and we project him to have 69.3 receiving yards this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
