Week 3 has a few eye-catching totals and intriguing game stacks. However, the two most exciting game stacks have totals flirting with 50 points and slight spreads. They should both be back-and-forth shootouts. As a bonus, the values/punts section has a mini stack that can work around the two game stacks.
NFL Week 3 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Saints vs. Eagles
Spread/Total: NO -2.5/49.5 Points
The Saints have played the best football in the NFL this year, and their offense has taken flight because new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is doing intelligent things. Namely, the Saints are using motion and play-action at high rates.
Saints rates and ranks
Play action
2023: 13% (32nd)
2024: 51% (1st)Designed rollouts
2023: 4% (25th)
2024: 16% (1st)Motion at the snap
2023: 14% (26th)
2024: 41% (5th)- Seth Walder (@SethWalder) September 16, 2024
Moreover, Kubiak runs the offense through Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed. Derek Carr has directed 25 of his 39 pass attempts to Shaheed (nine targets), Olave (eight targets) and Kamara (eight). Furthermore, Kamara has handled 35 rush attempts versus 31 combined for Jamaal Williams, Taysom Hill and Jordan Mims. The rush attempts for Williams, Hill and Mims were almost certainly also boosted slightly by the blowout victories.
The Eagles also have a potent offense and a narrow usage tree, narrowed further by A.J. Brown's hamstring injury. Jalen Hurts was a successful runner on Monday night, including a few tush pushes. DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Saquon Barkley are his best weapons when Hurts takes to the air. Despite Hurts's rushing ability, he's thrown seven passes to Barkley. I'd prefer not to stack Hurts and Barkley together since Barkley's not a target hog, and Hurts has more value when he vultures short rushing touchdowns. Nevertheless, stacking them isn't out of the question for gamers building many GPP lineups.
The larger non-player view of the game is also ideal for stacking. The game's total and spread are optimal for a DFS-friendly shootout. In addition, the Eagles and Saints have run plays at a high rate. Per RotoViz's pace app, the Eagles have run the fourth-most per 60-minute plays (72) in a situation-neutral game script, and the Saints are tied for the 13th-most (61).
Game: Cowboys vs. Ravens
Spread/Total: BAL -1.0/48.5 Points
The Cowboys and Ravens are coming off losses in Week 2. The former was boat-raced by the Saints, and the latter choked away a win against the Raiders in Baltimore. Neither defense has turned heads this year. According to FTN Fantasy, the Ravens are 19th in defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), and the Cowboys are 16th. Additionally, per Sumer Sports, the Ravens are 26th in EPA allowed per play, and the Cowboys are 20th. Dallas has been especially vulnerable on the ground, allowing the most EPA per rush. Conversely, the Ravens have allowed the eighth-most EPA per pass.
Unsurprisingly, my favorite way to stack this game is with a Dak Prescott single with CeeDee Lamb or a double by adding Jalen Tolbert and bringing it back with Derrick Henry. However, Lamar Jackson's ceiling is undeniable, and Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely or Rashod Bateman could pile up fantasy points if Jackson hits his ceiling. The two tight ends are also the cheapest viable options at tight end.
I initially wasn't going to include Flowers among the players suggested as stacking options from this contest. However, according to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Flowers is tied for the 14th-highest first-read rate (33.3%) this year, and Dallas has faced the highest first-read target rate (85.8%) through two weeks. So, the second-year wideout is intriguing.
Core Studs
- Barkley is a true bell-cow. He's tied for third in the NFL in rush attempts (46), fifth in rushing yards per game (102.0), seventh in scrimmage yards (248) and tied for second in touchdowns (three) this season. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), among 50 running backs with at least 10 rush attempts this season, Barkley is 12th in yards after contact per attempt (3.57 YCO/A) and tied for fifth in missed tackles forced (nine). He's also second in routes run (53). Barkley's monstrous workload makes him a high-floor and high-ceiling pick suitable for all game types.
- The Olave blow-up game is coming, possibly as soon as a team provides New Orleans with more resistance than a speed bump. The game's spread suggests the Eagles will keep the contest close, keeping Olave busy for four quarters after back-to-back blowouts. Olave has PFF's fifth-highest receiving grade and is 16th in yards per route run (2.36 Y/RR) among 87 wideouts with at least five targets this season. He's also not being pigeonholed in a one-dimensional field-stretcher role this season. Per PFF, Olave has one target behind the line of scrimmage, two short (zero to nine yards downfield), four medium (10 to 19 yards downfield) and one deep (20-plus yards downfield) this season. Olave can feast against a defense allowing the third-most DraftKings and the second-most FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season.
- Christian McCaffrey is on the Injured Reserve (IR), and Deebo Samuel will miss a few weeks with a calf injury. It's wheels up for Brandon Aiyuk in their absences. According to 4For4 Football's market share app, in six games that Aiyuk has played without Samuel since 2022, he's had 7.3 targets per game, 5.3 receptions per game, 74.7 receiving yards per game, 79.0 air yards per game, 0.33 receiving touchdowns per game and 0.21 expected receiving touchdowns per game. Aiyuk should rip through LA's dreadful pass defense. The Rams have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers this season.
Value Plays/Punts
- Brock Bowers has been everything he was advertised as. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, Bowers has the fifth-highest team air-yard share (24.5%), the third-highest target share (23.9%), the third-highest targets per route run (0.30), the third-most yards per route run (2.79 Y/RR) and the second-highest first-read rate (26.7%) among tight ends with at least 25 routes this season.
- D'Andre Swift has been a train wreck this year, averaging a pitiful 2.0 yards per carry. Regardless, Swift has dominated Chicago's backfield workload. He's handled 24 of the backfield's 33 rush attempts and run 47 routes versus 25 combined for Travis Homer, Khalil Herbert and Velus Jones. Swift has a get-right matchup against the Colts this week. The Colts have faced the highest situation-neutral rush rate (62%) through two weeks. Running backs have steamrolled Indy for the most rushing yards per game (175.0). Swift has been a boom-or-bust running back in his career, and it's been all busts for him to begin his tenure with the Bears. Fortunately, the Colts are a boom matchup.
- The Bears DST is an outright steal at both DFS providers. According to Pro Football Reference, Chicago is fifth in pressure rate (31.2%), tied for 10th in sacks (six), tied for fourth in yards allowed per play (4.5) and tied for fourth in turnovers forced(four) this year. Meanwhile, per PFF, Anthony Richardson has the highest turnover-worthy-play rate (7.8 TWP%) and the second-lowest adjusted completion percentage (58.0%) among quarterbacks with at least 10 dropbacks this season. Richardson has also taken three sacks. The Bears should have sack and turnover opportunities.
Week 3 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Anthony Richardson: 0.5 Interceptions - More (Sleeper) (1.61x)
Anthony Richardson: 0.5 Interceptions - Higher (Underdog)
Richardson has five turnover-worthy plays in two games. He had zero but threw one interception in Week 1 before throwing three picks on five turnover-worthy plays in Week 2. Richardson also had a turnover-worthy play in all four starts he made as a rookie in 2023. The erratic rocket-armed quarterback can't refrain from putting the football in harm's way.
Chris Olave: 59.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
The Saints have had the luxury of taking their foot off the accelerator in both games this year. Still, Olave turned four receptions on six targets in Week 2 into 81 receiving yards after a quiet effort in Week 1's blowout. Carr has thrived in Kubiak's offense, and the Eagles haven't slowed passing attacks. Jayden Reed had 138 receiving yards in Week 1 against the Eagles, and Darnell Mooney barbecued them for 88 receiving yards in Week 2. So, there's enough meat on the bone for Olave and Shaheed to both burn the Eagles if the game's a shootout, as the game's spread and total suggest it will be. As a result, we project Olave to have 72.1 receiving yards this week.
Adam Thielen: 3.5 Receptions - More (Sleeper) (1.55x)
Adam Thielen: 4.0 Receptions - Higher (Underdog)
Bryce Young was benched this week. He's been in over his head in the NFL. Even in Carolina's putrid offense last season, Andy Dalton had success. Dalton completed 34 of 58 pass attempts for 361 yards in his lone start in 2023. Most importantly for Adam Thielen, Dalton directed 14 passes to Thielen. The veteran wideout had 11 receptions for 145 receiving yards and a touchdown in Dalton's start.
Dalton and Thielen should have rapport after playing together last season. Thielen's deployment is also encouraging for his outlook this week. According to Fantasy Points, Thielen's 69.8% slot rate is the highest on the Panthers. The Raiders have faced the eighth-highest slot target rate (41.5%) this season. So, Thielen should have a busy afternoon. We project Thielen to have 4.1 receptions against Las Vegas.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
