Two of this week’s highest-projected scoring contests are the most desirable games to stack. Yet, narrowing the focus to which players to use is critical. In fact, a few of the studs in those games are highlighted as the Week 2 core studs. There are four values and punts this week. Finally, one pick ’em selection was only appealing at Underdog, another was only desirable at Sleeper, and the final suggestion is sweet at both pick ’em providers.
NFL Week 2 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Lions vs. Buccaneers
Spread/Total: DET -7.0/51.5 Points
It's not a bold suggestion to tout stacking the game on Sunday's main slate with the highest total. However, gamers should specifically invest in the passing attacks. According to RotoViz's pace app, Detroit's defense has faced the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%) and Tampa Bay's defense was tied for the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (61%) against them since Week 1 of 2023.
In Week 1, the Rams had the third-highest situation-neutral pass rate (71%) against the Lions. The Commanders only had 13 situation-neutral plays and were starting a rookie quarterback. So, their 38% situation-neutral pass rate should be taken with a grain of salt.
Additionally, Tampa Bay's secondary was bit by the injury bug, most notably losing superstar safety Antoine Winfield to an injury. The Lions would be foolish not to take advantage of a banged-up secondary with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Week 1 breakout star Jameson Williams. The Sun God and LaPorta are top-shelf talents, and Jared Goff has played his best football at home.
Williams is the new tantalizing piece. Williams was sixth among all wideouts in air yards (127) in Week 1, parlaying them into five receptions for 121 receiving yards and a touchdown. The speedster also ran once for 13 yards.
The Bucs assuaged concerns about losing last year's offensive coordinator, Dave Canales, to the Panthers. Baker Mayfield lit up the Commanders in Week 1, completing 24 passes on 30 attempts for 289 yards and four touchdowns.
Mike Evans is always a threat to explode, and the offseason rumors of Chris Godwin kicking back into the slot came to fruition. Godwin had a 50% slot rate against the Commanders per the Fantasy Points data suite. They also credited Godwin with a team-high 29.2% first-read rate.
Game: Cardinals vs. Rams
Spread/Total: ARI -1.5/49.5 Points
A high game total and a slight spread are optimal conditions for a shootout, and those conditions are met for the NFC West showdown between the Cardinals and Rams. Both NFC West clubs are coming off of heartbreaking narrow defeats in Week 1, and both offenses were better than their defenses.
Sadly, LA's offensive line was crushed by injuries. Puka Nacua was also hurt, landing on Injured Reserve (IR) after hurting his knee. Nevertheless, the Rams leaned on their passing attack, and Matthew Stafford was sharp. LA had a blistering 71% situation-neutral pass rate against the Lions. The Cardinals also took to the air, sporting the seventh-highest situation-neutral pass rate (60%) in Week 1.
Most of Stafford's pass attempts should be directed at Cooper Kupp this week. Stafford's No. 1 wide receiver had the fourth-most air yards (153) and the highest target share (43.8%) in Week 1.
Colby Parkinson's five targets, four receptions and 42 receiving yards weren't special. Yet, they were rock-solid, and his deployment was dreamy. Parkinson's 84.3% route participation rate was the second-highest among tight ends in Week 1. Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson are fine cheap bring-backs in skinny stacks or contrarian pivots from Kupp in GPPs.
The Cardinals are the A-side of this matchup as the home favorites. Kyler Murray ran for 57 yards in Week 1 and added 162 passing yards and a touchdown pass in windy conditions in Buffalo. He has a high ceiling because of his dual-threat ability.
Trey McBride is the best stacking option with Murray. The third-year tight end had just five receptions for 30 scoreless yards last week. However, McBride had the third-highest route participation rate (84.2%), the second-highest team air-yard share (37.9%), the second-highest target share (29.0%) and the fourth-highest first-read target rate (23.8%) among tight ends in Week 1, per the Fantasy Points data suite. McBride was a monster last year, and the addition of Marvin Harrison didn't prevent the blossoming stud tight end from garnering looks from Murray at a high rate.
Michael Wilson is a better stylistic fit in double stacks with McBride than Greg Dortch. According to PFF, Wilson had a 14.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) last season and a 15.5-yard aDOT in Week 1. Meanwhile, the diminutive Dortch had a 7.4-yard aDOT in Week 1 and a 9.6-yard aDOT last season. If McBride is carving up the Rams in the intermediate area as a catch-and-run weapon, it's likely at Dortch's expense.
Core Studs
- It could be a squeaky-wheel game for St. Brown after he had only six targets, three receptions and 13 scoreless yards in Week 1. Yet, it's more likely that ARSB dices up the Buccaneers because of a regression to his dominant numbers. Given Goff's better numbers at home than on the road, it's unsurprising that the Sun God has also excelled at home. In 17 home games since 2022, St. Brown has had 125 receptions (7.4 per game), 1,597 receiving yards (93.9 per game), 10 receiving touchdowns and 87 rushing yards (5.1 per game).
- It's unfortunate that Nacua is on IR, but his misfortune will turn Kupp into a target hog. Obviously, Kupp had a historically great season in 2021. Yet, he was still outstanding in an injury-shortened 2022 campaign, too. In 2022, Kupp had 8.3 receptions per game, 90.2 receiving yards per game, six receiving touchdowns, 52 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown in nine games.
- I didn't forget about James Conner when discussing the Rams and Cardinals above. Instead, I sandbagged to discuss him with the core studs. The veteran running back had 84.2% of Arizona's backfield's rush attempts in Week 1, toting the rock 16 times for 50 yards and a touchdown. He also ran a backfield-high 16 routes versus nine for Emari Demercado and three for Trey Benson. Conner had three targets, three receptions and 30 receiving yards against the Bills. He was an efficient workhorse last year, and the Rams might be a cushy matchup. LA's defense missed retired future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald in the opener, coughing up 131 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Detroit's running backs.
Value Plays/Punts
- Malik Nabers had a team-high 50 routes for the Giants last week. Sadly, he didn't light the world on fire, tallying five receptions for 66 receiving yards. Still, Nabers was Big Blue's top wideout and has a Charmin-soft matchup this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Commanders allowed the second-most DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to wide receivers last year. It didn't appear they fixed the issue in Week 1, getting smashed by Tampa Bay's wide receivers. According to the lineup optimizer, Nabers has the highest value score (2.52x) among wide receivers at DraftKings and the third-highest at the position on FanDuel this week.
- The Raiders didn't do much right in Week 1. Still, Brock Bowers had eight targets, six receptions and 58 receiving yards in his professional debut. A look under the hood was even more exciting. Among tight ends in Week 1, Bowers was 12th in route participation (72.5%), fourth in team air-yard share (25.2%), third in team target share (24.2%) and tied for second in first-read rate (25.0%).
- J.K. Dobbins had a brilliant performance in Week 1. He looked healthy, reaching 19.92 mph per NFL Next Gen Stats, tying with Saquon Barkley's maximum speed for the 18th highest in Week 1. Dobbins ran 10 times for 135 yards and a touchdown and reeled in three receptions for four yards. Gus Edwards was inefficient on the ground, paving the way for Dobbins to siphon more early-down work. Dobbins is already LA's passing-down back, running 17 routes and playing 22 passing snaps versus five and eight for Edwards. Finally, the game script should be good for the favored Chargers against the hapless Panthers. Carolina yielded 132 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, six receptions and 40 receiving yards to the Saints' running backs last week. Now, their best defensive player, Derrick Brown, is on IR. Dobbins can erupt again this week.
- Jalen McMillan is the cheapest viable exposure to this week's best game stack. The rookie made the most of his only reception last week, scoring a 32-yard touchdown. McMillan was tied for the team lead in routes (30). Interestingly, even in a loaded wide receiving corps, McMillan had a 12.5% first-read target rate in his professional debut. He was also used at every level. Per PFF, McMillan had one target short (zero to nine yards), one medium (10 to 19 yards) and one deep (20-plus yards).
Week 2 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 80.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
In 19 games last season, St. Brown averaged 94.2 receiving yards per game. He exceeded 80.5 receiving yards 13 times, with a median of 102. ARSB exceeded 80.5 receiving yards in seven of nine home games. And, again, the Sun God has averaged 93.9 receiving yards per game at home since 2022.
Breece Hall: 73.5 Rushing Yards - Less (Sleeper) (1.78x)
The 49ers steamrolled the Jets on Monday Night Football in Week 1. Gang Green has a quicker turnaround after closing last week's action, and Breece Hall had an underwhelming showing on the ground. Hall had 16 rush attempts for 54 yards.
New York's revamped offensive line couldn't create any running room. According to the Fantasy Points data suite, Gang Green's 0.26 yards before contact per attempt were the second-lowest in Week 1. They now have the unenviable task of attempting to create running lanes against Tennessee's massive defensive tackle duo of Jeffery Simmons and T'Vondre Sweat. The Titans held D'Andre Swift (30 rushing yards), Velus Jones (11 rushing yards), Travis Homer (10 rushing yards) and Khalil Herbert (four rushing yards) to 55 rushing yards on 16 attempts last week. Hall will have plenty of big showings this season, but this week will unlikely be one of them.
Malik Nabers: 67.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.77x)
Malik Nabers: 66.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
After an acceptable debut last week, Nabers can explode against Washington's pathetic defense. Per the Fantasy Points data suite, the Commanders had the second-lowest pressure rate (29.8%) in Week 1. Nabers could benefit from explosive downfield targets if the Commanders can't pressure Daniel Jones. Finally, since last year, Washington has allowed 19 instances of a wide receiver surpassing 67.5 receiving yards.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
