This year’s Daily Fantasy Digest is more digestible. Have no fear. If you enjoyed last year’s version because of the sheer volume of player suggestions, you’ll find those in the DFS Cheat Sheet on Friday. The new and improved Daily Fantasy Digest has a pair of suggested game stacks, core studs, values, punts and pick ’em choices at Sleeper and Underdog.
NFL Week 1 DFS Picks & Predictions
Suggested Game Stacks
Game: Dolphins vs. Jaguars
Spread/Total: MIA -3.5/49.0 Points
The Dolphins and Jaguars should put on a track meet in the battle of Florida's AFC squads. Both offenses have intriguing offensive weapons, and between cuts and losing players in free agency to get cap compliant and injuries, Miami's defense will almost certainly take a step back this year. Meanwhile, the Jaguars had a pass-funnel defense last year.
According to RotoViz's pace app, Jacksonville's defense had the second-highest situation-neutral pass rate (62%) against them. Tua Tagovailoa could be busy chucking it in a shootout, and the passing attack goes through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
De'Von Achane might also be busy in the passing game. Miami's receiving corps is light on the active roster, but the explosive second-year running back has received reps at wide receiver in the offseason. Thus, even against a stout run-funnel defense, Achane has a sky-high ceiling, enhanced by a possible uptick in receiving work. Tua can be single or double-stacked with his explosive playmakers, and one of those weapons will be featured among the core studs.
The Jaguars are slight underdogs. In the offseason, they've swapped out Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones for Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas. Christian Kirk is still in the fold and has the most rapport with Lawrence after back-to-back successful seasons on the Jaguars. Davis and Thomas will add a vertical dimension to a passing attack needing field stretchers.
Travis Etienne is also a viable DFS option after operating as a bell-cow running back last year. Etienne handled a blistering 74.6% of Jacksonville's backfield's rush attempts last season. Even if Tank Bigsby soaks up a few more touches, Etienne should be a workhorse in a potentially favorable matchup against Miami's Christian Wilkins-less defensive line after losing the stud defensive tackle in free agency to the Raiders.
Game: Bills vs. Cardinals
Spread/Total: BUF -6.5/48.0 Points
The Bills are favorites against the cross-country traveling Cardinals. Yet, the cross-country travel isn't likely as impactful in Week 1 as it would be in the middle of the NFL season, and Buffalo's defense might have an adjustment period to life after the dynamic safety duo of Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. They also lost Matt Milano to a biceps injury.
Meanwhile, a fully healthy offseason for Kyler Murray and adding Marvin Harrison to a talent-poor wide receiving corps should aid Arizona on offense. While the game's spread is 6.5 points, the feisty Cardinals could keep things closer and push the Bills, creating a potential back-and-forth shootout.
Josh Allen is a dual-threat monster at quarterback, and the lineup optimizer projects him to be the QB1 on this week's main slate. Allen's most enticing stacking partner is second-year tight end Dalton Kincaid, projected to finish as the TE1 at DraftKings and the TE2 at FanDuel on Sunday's main slate.
The pass-catching hierarchy at wide receiver in the wake of the Bills trading Stefon Diggs to the Texans is a mystery. However, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Khalil Shakir had the most receiving yards (438), the third-most receptions (30) and tied for the most touchdown receptions (three) in Buffalo's final nine games after Joe Brady was promoted to offensive coordinator to replace a fired Ken Dorsey. Among the six players targeted at least 15 times during that period, Shakir was also first on the team in yards per route run (1.70 Y/RR).
Circling back to Brady, Curtis Samuel had a career year in Brady's offense in 2020. Keon Coleman is the biggest mystery. The Bills traded back twice before picking the big-bodied wideout with the first pick in the second round of this year's draft. Coleman has theoretical appeal in the red zone as a large target.
James Cook is an intriguing pick as a bring-back from Murray stacks or as a stacking partner with Allen. Cook had uncharacteristic issues with drops last year. Still, in nine games after Brady was promoted to offensive coordinator, Cook was targeted on 23.3% of his routes and had 28 receptions (3.1 per game), 249 receiving yards (27.7 per game), 1.66 Y/RR and three receptions. So, while a favorable game script would enhance Cook's outlook as a runner, his receiving chops could make him game-script proof and a sneaky stacking option with Allen.
Core Studs
- Hill is projected as the WR1 at both DFS providers on Sunday's main slate. Among wide receivers targeted at least 50 times last year, Hill was first in PFF's receiving grade and first in yards per route run (3.72 Y/RR). In the regular season, he was first in receiving yards per game (112.4) and tied for first in receiving touchdowns (13). Hill has slate-breaking upside in a projected shootout. He's a must-use player in cash games and an excellent selection in GPPs.
- In early August, Seattle's offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, gushed about Kenneth Walker.
#Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb on Kenneth Walker:
"I think he gets better every single day. I think the sky's the limit for him. I think he's a really, really talented, powerful back that's a true three-tool guy... He's electric out of the backfield as a pass-catcher." pic.twitter.com/b3FAKUQHib
- The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 7, 2024
Walker is a boom-or-bust runner, so it's encouraging he has the offensive coordinator's support entering the season.
Among 59 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts last year, Walker had PFF's eighth-highest rushing grade and was tied for 23rd in yards after contact per attempt (2.91), tied for fifth in missed tackles forced (54) and seventh in their elusiveness metric. Walker hasn't earned targets at a high rate, dating back to college. Still, he hauled in 29 of 33 targets last year for 259 yards, 1.30 Y/RR and two touchdowns. Walker has a mouthwatering matchup this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Broncos allowed the second-most rushing yards (2,013), most yards per carry (5.2), tied for the ninth-most rushing touchdowns (12), tied for the fifth-most receptions (90), allowed the 11th-most receiving yards (594) and tied for the third-most receiving touchdowns (six) allowed to running backs last season.
- In the first 10 weeks last year with Dorsey as Buffalo's offensive coordinator, Kincaid had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 4.6 yards and 1.46 Y/RR. In nine games with Brady as Buffalo's offensive coordinator, Kincaid's aDOT surged to 9.4 yards and his yards per route run ticked up to 1.56. When Brady was the offensive coordinator, Kincaid was second on the Bills in targets (51), second in receptions (36) and third in receiving yards (387). Again, Diggs is no longer in the mix, and Kincaid should absorb a higher target share in Buffalo's revamped pass-catching corps. This will be Kincaid's cheapest salary all year at both DFS providers if he's Allen's top pass-catching weapon in Week 1.
Value Plays/Punts
- According to PFF's Nathan Jahnke, Thomas was one of Jacksonville's two starting outside wide receivers, playing 28 of 32 snaps with the starters in the preseason. Thomas has the requisite size and elite speed to handle the perimeter and had a massive final collegiate campaign. Among 286 FBS wide receivers targeted at least 50 times last season, Thomas was tied for 32nd in yards per route run (2.61 Y/RR), 13th in receiving yards (1,177), 40th in yards per reception (17.3) and first in receiving touchdowns (17). He's a big-play machine. Finally, Jalen Ramsey has a hamstring injury and didn't practice on Wednesday. If the injury sidelines him this weekend, all of Jacksonville's wide receivers would benefit.
- The Bengals are 8.0-point favorites this week, the largest favorites on the slate. The stage is set for Cincinnati's running backs to be fed in a positive game script. Zack Moss is listed as their starter on the team's depth chart. Nevertheless, Chase Brown's explosiveness is intriguing, and a blowout win is the perfect time for the Bengals to give the second-year pro reps in a regular season game. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Brown's maximum speed (22.05 mph) on a 54-yard touchdown reception was the second-fastest ball-carrier speed last year. His elite speed makes him a big-play threat. Brown cleared the low bar of 50 scrimmage yards in all three games when he had at least 10 touches last year and efficiently secured 14 receptions for 156 receiving yards on 15 targets. Brown is a better fit in GPPs than cash games because of the uncertainty of Cincinnati's backfield roles. Still, he's a defensible punt because of his salary and the game's massive spread.
- Week 1 requires more guesswork than any other in the NFL season. As a result, reading the tea leaves is critical. The Chargers didn't play Gus Edwards or J.K. Dobbins in the preseason. Resting starters isn't unusual, but Dobbins had very little guaranteed money and was coming off a torn Achilles. He made the roster based on what he showcased in practice without having to play in a preseason game. The Athletic's Daniel Popper said of Dobbins that he "looked really explosive in camp." Beat reporters aren't always reliable sources for evaluating players in training camp, but his report aligns with Dobbins sitting out preseason contests. NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah, who's plugged into the Chargers as their radio analyst, had high praise for Dobbins earlier in the offseason. Dobbins is healthy right now, and he should share early-down work with the Gus Bus while handling the passing downs as a superior pass-catching option. The Chargers are home favorites, and head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman love to run the rock. Dobbins has a low bar to clear to provide DFS value, and if he's regained even 80% of his pre-Achilles explosiveness, he has an intriguing ceiling.
Week 1 Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Tyreek Hill: 97.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.62x)
Tyreek Hill: 97.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Hill averaged an NFL-high 112.4 receiving yards per game last year. His median was 99 receiving yards, which is also above his line for this contest. Hill exceeded 97.5 receiving yards nine times in 17 games last year, and a matchup against a pass-funnel defense enhances the likelihood he will do so against the Jaguars.
Tua Tagovailoa: 34.5 Pass Attempts - More (Sleeper) (1.77x)
Tua Tagovailoa: 33.5 Pass Attempts - Higher (Underdog)
Jacksonville's stout run defense and pass-funnel tendencies are also ideal for Tua's passing attempts over. The lefty averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game last year, under his line for this contest. However, many of Miami's games were uncompetitive last year. A deeper dive is more encouraging for Tua's over for pass attempts. The Dolphins had only seven games decided by a single score last year. Tua had over 33.5 pass attempts in four of those games and exceeded 34.5 pass attempts three times. He was also busier in Miami's losses. The Dolphins lost seven games last season, and Tua had over 33.5 pass attempts in four of those games, clearing 34.5 attempts three times. In a likely competitive contest projected to be close, we project Tua to have 34.6 pass attempts in Week 1.
James Cook: 17.5 Receiving Yards - More (Sleeper) (1.72x)
James Cook: 17.5 Receiving Yards - Higher (Underdog)
Cook was a meaningful contributor to Buffalo's passing attack after Brady was promoted to offensive coordinator. In that nine-game sample, Cook had 35 targets (3.9 per game), 28 receptions (3.1 per game), 249 receiving yards (27.7 per game) and 1.66 Y/RR. Cook surpassed 17.5 receiving yards five times in that nine-game sample, with a median of 21. He has a favorable matchup for his receiving outlook this week. The Cardinals yielded 32.7 receiving yards per game to running backs last season. So, we project Cook to have 23.9 receiving yards this week.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
