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I had no article last week as I was laid up for four straight days sick, but I’m back for Week 4 and ready to crush it. There hasn’t been a “free square” type player yet for this week, which is how I like it honestly. The 80 percent owned cash value players each week limit the variance in lineups and almost force you to play them, even if you don’t like them. We don’t have that so far this week, so here are my top values.
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 4
DraftKings
Quarterback
Justin Fields (QB – PIT) @ IND $5,500
Fields is coming off his best fantasy day of the season despite only rushing for six yards. Yes, he had a rushing touchdown, but you would expect him to have more rushing yards on average. If he can duplicate his passing efficiency from last week (78 percent completions) and add the rushing upside, he will easily put up over 20 DraftKings points.
The Colts’ defense is middle of the pack in terms of points allowed to quarterbacks, but they did give up 41 yards on the ground to another “running QB” Malik Willis in Week 2. At $5,500, Fields is my top value at QB this week.
Others to consider: Derek Carr (NO) $5,900, Deshaun Watson (CLE) $5,400
Running Back
Roschon Johnson (RB – CHI) vs. LAR $4,100
Johnson has gone from a healthy scratch in Week 1 to nearly a 40 percent snap share in Week 3. He was the more efficient running back in Week 3 despite not getting as many touches as D’Andre Swift. If Swift continues to struggle, we could see the second-year running back start to eat into his touches, and if he can maintain that efficiency, could become a huge margin.
The Rams rank 26th in rush defense DVOA, and, at only $4,100, Johnson will be a very tempting way to save some salary in Week 4.
Others to consider: Cam Akers (HOU) $5,300, Chuba Hubbard (CAR) $5,700
Wide Receiver
Diontae Johnson (WR – CAR) vs. CIN $5,600
Andy Dalton had Diontae Johnson looking like an elite wide receiver last week with his eight catches on 14 targets, 122 yards, and a touchdown. While I wouldn’t expect that type of production this week, it is within the range of outcomes in a plus matchup against the Bengals.
The Bengals are 26th in pass defense DVOA and 31st against a team’s No. 1 wide receiver (per FTNFantasy.com). The Panthers looked like a competent offense in Week 3 after benching second-year quarterback Bryce Young. Was it a flash in the pan? At $5,600, it’s worth it to find out.
Others to consider: Quentin Johnston (LAC) $4,900
Tight End
Mike Gesicki (TE – CIN) @ CAR $3,500
The tight end position has been a dumpster fire this season, so pick your poison with any of these tight ends, but if forced to pick one, I will take Gesicki. He has had at least four targets in every game this season, and he gets a great matchup versus a Panthers team giving up the third most points to tight ends on the season. The way the tight end position has been so far this season, I wish DraftKings and Fanduel would turn the TE position into a TE/WR Flex spot.
Others to consider: Tyler Conklin (NYJ) $3,600
Defense/Special Teams
Arizona Cardinals vs. WAS $2,800
Cheap defenses are hard to find this week, but I like the Cardinals on the road at Washington. As good as the Commanders have been so far this year, they are still starting a rookie quarterback. Yes, Jayden Daniels isn’t playing like a rookie, but I still think there’s a chance the wheels fall off at some point and it could be this week. The Cardinals’ defense has been better than advertised and they’ve been able to get pressure on the quarterback, so if they can rack up a few sacks and force a turnover or two, they can easily pay off their mid-level price tag.
FanDuel
Quarterback
Caleb Williams (QB – CHI) vs. LAR $7,100
Williams finally put up a good fantasy day last week dropping 22.32 FD points in Indy. This week he gets a Rams’ defense giving up the second-most points to quarterbacks so far this season, and he may get back one of his weapons with Keenan Allen expected to play. Hopefully he can build off what he was able to do last week and pay off his modest $7,100 salary.
Others to consider: Andy Dalton (CAR) $7,000, Justin Fields (CHI) $6,900
Running Back
Cam Akers (RB – HOU) vs. JAX $6,100
All signs are pointing to the Cam Akers getting the start again this week. He was a chalky play last week, and while he wasn’t great, he also wasn’t terrible — and truthfully the game was over so quick with the Vikings jumping out to a huge lead that they had to abandon the run. This week he gets the lowly Jaguars who give up the third most points to running backs. The Texans are six point favorites, meaning Akers should have plently of touches this and could be a steal at $6,100.
Others to consider: Carson Steele (KC) $5,800, Roschon Johnson (CHI) $5,550
Wide Receiver
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX) @ HOU $5,800
The lone bright spot for the Jags in this young season has been the play of their rookie wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. He had his worst fantasy output last week agasint a surprisingly stout Bills defense, but he still had nine targets in that game. The Texans’ defense is tough, but they do rank 30th in pass defense DVOA agasint a teams’ No. 2 wide receiver (per FTNFantasy.com). At $5,800, you could do worse than BTJ.
Others to consider: Quentin Johnston (LAC) $6,000, Diontae Johnson (CAR) $6,200
Tight End
Tyler Conklin (TE – NYJ) vs. DEN $5,100
As I mentioned with the Draftkings write up, the tight end position as been an S-Show so far this season, but the man once nicknamed Tyler Gronklin is coming off a big game in which he caught five passes on six targets for 93 yards. The Broncos give up the 10th most points and rank 19th in pass defense DVOA versus tight ends on the season.
Others to consider: Pat Freiermuth (PIT) $5,000
Defense/Special Teams
Buffalo Bills @ BAL $3,800
The Bills defense, depsite losing key members to free agency and injuries, have been a surprisingly good defense through three games. Granted, they’ve also played the Cardinals, Jags and a Dolphins team without their quarterback for half the game, but they’ve looked dominant at times. The Ravens haven’t looked great offensively, at least not on a consistent basis, and we know Lamar Jackson will take sacks and turn the ball over at times.
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