Times flies! Not only is it Week 1 in the NFL already, but this marks my ninth year with FantasyPros! So blessed to be allowed to share my DFS plays over the years and I’m looking forward to another great season! I’m not one for long intros, because who reads them anyway, let’s get to it…
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NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 1 (2024 Fantasy Football)
DraftKings
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels (WAS) @ TB $5,700
Daniels is a no-brainer value pick at quarterback in Week 1 and likely the highest-owned QB unless Justin Fields starts over an injured Russell Wilson. He offers a solid floor with his rushing ability and showed in his limited preseason action that he is not afraid to take shots down the field. Combine that with the fact the Bucs were tied for allowing the second-most rushing TDs per game to QBs last season (per FTNfantasy) and you have the QB I will have the most exposure to in Week 1.
Others to Consider: Sam Darnold (MIN) $5,200
Running Back
Jerome Ford (CLE) vs. DAL $5,500
Ford’s price was depressed due to the uncertainty of Nick Chubb’s availability in Week 1. But, with Chubb now ruled out for the first few weeks, Ford is the unquestioned lead back early in the season. The Cowboys were tough against the run last season, but Ford’s price tag and projected volume make him a solid value play this week.
Others to Consider: Zamir White (LV) $5,700, Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) $5,200
Wide Receiver
Tank Dell (HOU) @ IND $5,500
This price is downright disrespectful. When the pricing for Week 1 dropped, there was still some question on whether or not Dell would be healthy for Week 1 — well, he caught a deep TD in the preseason to squash any doubt. He had a 7/72/1 line against the Colts last season in the second NFL game of his career. At $5,500, you would be happy for him to repeat that, but I think he puts up an even bigger line in Week 1.
Others to Consider: Terry McLaurin (WAS) $5,600, Diontae Johnson (CAR) $5,300
Tight End
Jonnu Smith (MIA) vs. JAX $3,500
Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and… Who else does Tua Tagovailoa have to throw to? Sure, he has the running backs out of the backfield, but head coach Mike McDaniel may have found the “George Kittle” for his offense. Standing 6-foot-3, 243 pounds and running a 4.6-second 40, Smith will fit in nicely with this Miami offense — especially in the red zone where they lack size outside of Jonnu. With the limited options in the passing game, Smith could be involved enough that he will easily pay off his $3,500 salary.
Defense
Carolina Panthers @ NO $2,400
Long-time readers of this column know that I almost always punt the defense, and this week it’s the Panthers I’m punting. The Saints, with Derek Carr under center, aren’t a particularly good offense and the Panthers should be able to get to Carr to rack up a couple of sacks and maybe force a turnover or two. At $2,400, they don’t need to do much to hit their value.
Others to Consider: Commanders @ TB $2,500
Fanduel
Quarterback
Steeler’s QB @ ATL $6,900
Truthfully, the value play on Fanduel is Jayden Daniels, but since I already wrote him up for DraftKings, I will take whoever ends up starting for the Steelers in Week 1. If Justin Fields gets the start with Russell Wilson nursing a calf injury, his rushing upside makes him an easy value play. However, even if Wilson suits up, with George Pickens, Pat Freiemuth, and a healthy Jaylen Warren in the passing game, Wilson should have enough weapons to put up some good numbers and should pay off his relatively cheap price tag of $6,900.
Others to Consider: Jayden Daniels (WAS) $7,000, Sam Darnold (MIN) $6,700
Running Back
Najee Harris (PIT) @ ATL $6,700
The hate on Harris has gone a little too far. Everyone is in love with Jaylen Warren and while I expect Warren to be involved in this offense, I do think the two of them can coexist. Harris will see the majority of the 1st and 2nd down work, but he has shown his ability as a pass catcher too. Let’s also not gloss over the fact that former Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is now the offensive coordinator of the Steelers, and the best path to a victory over his former team is to run it right at them.
Others to Consider: Zamir White (LV) $6,400, Jerome Ford (CLE) $6,200, Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) $6,200
Wide Receiver
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) vs. DEN $5,200
If you’ve watched my show, Armchair Fantasy Show, at all this summer, you will know my love for JSN, and that was before Tyler Lockett was listed as questionable with a thigh injury. I was expecting JSN to overtake Lockett at some point this season, and this thigh injury, even if Lockett suits up, could open the door for him sooner rather than later. The Broncos ranked 25th in Pass defense DVOA last season, and dead last against a team’s No. 2 WR, which JSN should line up as even if Lockett is healthy as Lockett plays in the slot in three-wide sets.
Others to Consider: Joshua Palmer (LAC) $5,000
Tight End
Chig Okonkwo (TEN) @ CHI $4,800
Assuming wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is either out or limited, the Titans don’t have a ton of options in the receiving game outside of offseason addition Calvin Ridley. Treylon Burks has never come close to reaching his potential and Tyler Boyd is a solid, if boring, option in the slot. Chig is what we call in fantasy football a post-hype sleeper. Last season everyone was hoping he’d make that jump into the top 12 TE range, but maybe, just maybe, we were a year too early?
Defense
New England Patriots @ CIN $3,100
The Bengals have had a rough offseason. Starting with the uncertainty of signing Tee Higgins early in the offseason to the recent drama behind Ja’Marr Chase and his contract situation. Now Higgins is listed as doubtful in Week 1 and we still aren’t sure if Chase — who hasn’t practiced with the team at all this offseason — even suits up. Former No. 3 WR Tyler Boyd is now in Tennessee, so there is a decent chance the Patriots line up Sunday against Andrei Iosivas and rookie WR Jermaine Burton as the top two options in the passing game.
Others to Consider: Washington Commanders $3,400
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