Last week was our best GPP article of the season, and it led to a solid payday for yours truly. While I didn’t write up Jauan Jennings, he was in nearly every lineup once I heard George Kittle was out. Late absences like that will happen later in the week, and you guys need to take advantage of those.
With that in mind, let’s dive into this week’s GPP plays.
Week 4 GPP DFS Advice & Picks
The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 4.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Derek Carr (QB – N): $5,900 at ATL
People are hopping off the Derek Carr train faster than the Train to Busan, but we’re willing to stay on at this sub-$6,000 price tag. He’s looked like a different player in this new-look offense, averaging 18 DraftKings points per game. That’s one of the highest totals at this struggling position, and it shouldn’t have him outside the top 10 in terms of salary. We also don’t mind the matchup, with Atlanta posting a 19th opponent rank (OPRK) against opposing quarterbacks.
Justin Fields (QB – PIT): $5,500 at IND
Justin Fields hasn’t put up many great fantasy performances since joining Pittsburgh, but this guy is slowly getting acclimated with this offense. That’s massive since Fields was a top-10 quarterback in the past and is starting to get unleashed. Taking that risk at $5,500 is the way to go because Indy has allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
FanDuel
Anthony Richardson (QB – IND): $7,500 vs. PIT
Anthony Richardson has looked horrid in the last two games, but DFS managers overlook his upside. This guy was a top-three quarterback in three of his first five starts and can return to that level on any given Sunday because of his rushing ability. He’ll have to run to avoid this stingy Steelers defense. Falling into 100 rushing yards and a touchdown would make Richardson one of the GPP plays of the day.
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE): $6,900 at LVR
Deshaun Watson has been the butt of many jokes, but his 15 FanDuel points per game has been a solid mark so far this season. He’s also scored at least 13 FanDuel points in all three games, attempting nearly 40 passes per contest. As long as he’s slinging the ball like that, Watson should be above $7,000. We also love the matchup with Vegas, posting a 23rd OPRK against opposing quarterbacks.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB – WAS): $6,100 at ARI
Brian Robinson might play every down in this game with Austin Ekeler already ruled out. That means we could get 20 carries and five receptions from a $6,000 running back in what’s projected to be the highest-scoring game of the week. That’s a godsend for DFS, especially since Robinson is already averaging over 15 fantasy points per game and facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL.
Zack Moss (RB – CIN): $5,900 at CAR
Zack Moss has played on nearly 80% of the snaps, taking over the Joe Mixon role for the Bengals. That’s led to Moss averaging 14 DraftKings points per game. He had an even higher average filling in for Jonathan Taylor last season. We love that sort of role against Carolina, surrendering the most fantasy points to opposing rushers since last season.
FanDuel
James Conner (RB – ARI): $7,500 vs. WAS
Using the top running back for the highest-projected offense is always the way to go. People are sleeping on James Conner because of a terrible Week 3, but he had 18 and 22 FanDuel points in the first two games of the season. We expect him to return to that elite level here, facing a Washington team that’s allowed 5.1 yards per carry and nearly 30 points per game.
Jerome Ford (RB – CLE): $6,400 at LV
Jerome Ford saw a diminished role in Week 2 but was a workhorse in Week 3. That’s what we expected to see all season with Nick Chubb out. Ford has averaged nearly 15 FanDuel points per game when Chubb has been sidelined over the last two years. The best part of this is the matchup with the Raiders, who are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing rushers this season.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS): $5,800 at ARI
Scary Terry hasn’t been given many opportunities this season, but Jayden Daniels realizes Terry McLaurin should be his go-to guy. That’s what we saw on Monday, with McLaurin tallying 23 DraftKings points in his best game of the season. Most importantly, he has 14 targets over the last two weeks and will supposedly get the ball more as we advance. If this will be the shootout of the day, Scary Terry should give Arizona some nightmares.
Christian Watson (WR – GB): $5,000 vs. MIN
Christian Watson and the rest of the players in this Packers passing attack have been terrible, but nobody was going to go off with Malik Willis behind center. It sounds like Jordan Love will be ready to return here. We saw Watson as the top receiver in this offense at times last season when Love was under center. That sort of potential makes him a worthy option at $5,000. He has scored five touchdowns over his last eight games played. In addition, Minnesota maintains a 23rd OPRK against opposing receivers.
FanDuel
George Pickens (WR – PIT): $6,100 at IND
I had George Pickens in my Smash Starts article. We love some of his metrics. He has one of the best team shares of air yards and targets in the NFL while establishing himself as one of the best separators around. That means a big game is around the corner with how talented he guy can be. It could start here since Indy is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.
Christian Kirk (WR – JAX): $5,600 at HOU
Christian Kirk has been above $6,000 for most of his career, but a terrible opening two weeks ago killed his price tag. The good news is Kirk bounced back last week, recording eight catches for 79 yards on 10 targets. That’s the role that made him the best passing option in this offense in the past. We anticipate Jacksonville throwing a ton here to keep up with the Texans as a massive underdog.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Hunter Henry (TE – NE): $4,200 at SF
The tight end position has been terrible, but Hunter Henry has been New England’s best pass-catcher. Amazingly, he’s leading all tight ends with a 25% team target share. That’s a fantastic number since Henry isn’t even in the top 10 regarding salary and he’s averaging 9.5 DraftKings points per game. Nobody will want to use Henry when they see San Francisco next to his name, but that should force New England to throw as a massive underdog. If they have to attempt 40 passes as a heavy underdog, Henry could see 10 targets with that 25% target share.
FanDuel
Zach Ertz (TE – WAS): $5,100 at ARI
It’s hard to believe Zach Ertz is still relevant, but the veteran has been a sneaky safety blanket for Jayden Daniels. The former Pro Bowler has at least four targets in all three games, and he’s one of the only tight ends who can say that right now. He’s also got nine catches for 100 yards over the last two weeks and could be utilized heavily since this is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the week. There are 20 tight ends priced above Ertz, and that shouldn’t happen with so much in his favor.
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Chicago Bears D/ST: $3,100 vs. LAR
The Bears are being overlooked in fantasy circles and rank at the top of the league in most defensive statistics. They’re in the top 10 in sacks, interceptions and yardage surrendered, averaging nearly 12 DraftKings points per game. That’s the third-highest total on this slate. We’re not worried about a matchup with L.A. The Rams rank 19th in points scored while missing their top two receivers and half of their offensive line. That has Chicago entering this matchup as a 3.5-point favorite in a game with a 40.5-point total.
FanDuel
Houston Texans D/ST: $4,100 vs. JAX
Houston has one of the most underrated defenses in the league, ranking fourth in sacks and seventh in interceptions. That makes this salary challenging to justify, with the Texans outside the top 10. What makes it even more difficult to understand is this matchup because Jacksonville has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs while sitting 30th in points scored and 27th in total yardage. That has Houston entering this matchup as a 7.5-point favorite in a game with a 45-point total.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
