I write a cash game article and a GPP piece every week. Developing a player pool for each article is fascinating. The cash game options always stick out like sore thumbs, but digging deep to find GPP options is what I genuinely enjoy. These guys will hit at a much lower rate than any other article, but connecting on a few of these home run picks is a great way to snag a monster GPP cash.
With that in mind, let’s dive into this week’s GPP plays.
Week 1 GPP DFS Advice & Picks
The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 1.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS): $5,700 at TB
The Commanders drafted their franchise quarterback, with Jayden Daniels looking like a DFS darling. This is one of those dual threats that can help take down a GPP because he’s one of the only guys who could provide 20 DraftKings points through passing and then another 15 DraftKings points on the ground. It’s even more likely against a team like Tampa, with the Bucs posting a 25th opponent rank (OPRK) against opposing quarterbacks last season.
I write a cash game article and a GPP piece every week. Developing a player pool for each article is fascinating. The cash game options always stick out like sore thumbs, but digging deep to find GPP options is what I genuinely enjoy. These guys will hit at a much lower rate than any other article, but connecting on a few of these home run picks is a great way to snag a monster GPP cash.
With that in mind, let’s dive into this week’s GPP plays.
Week 1 GPP DFS Advice & Picks
The players below are the ones I’m looking at for GPP considerations for Week 1.
Quarterbacks
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS): $5,700 at TB
The Commanders drafted their franchise quarterback, with Jayden Daniels looking like a DFS darling. This is one of those dual threats that can help take down a GPP because he’s one of the only guys who could provide 20 DraftKings points through passing and then another 15 DraftKings points on the ground. It’s even more likely against a team like Tampa, with the Bucs posting a 25th opponent rank (OPRK) against opposing quarterbacks last season.
Russell Wilson (QB – PIT): $5,400 at ATL
Seeing Russell Wilson at just $5,400 is criminal, with the former MVP candidate averaging 18.4 DraftKings points per game last season. That alone is a fantastic number from a player in this price range, and a change of scenery might be just what the doctor ordered. Facing Atlanta is an excellent way to get him on the right track, with the Falcons finishing with a 23rd OPRK against opposing signal-callers.
FanDuel
Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR): $7,300 at DET
Matthew Stafford has struggled the last two seasons from a DFS standpoint, but this guy was above $8,000 before that. We believe he can return to that guy this season because he has Cooper Kupp fully healthy and Puka Nacua after a breakout rookie campaign. Weapons like that are rare and we love he has a revenge game against Detroit. Stafford is averaging 25 FanDuel points per game against his former team, with the Lions allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks.
Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE): $7,100 vs. DAL
This one is a tough sell, but we’re talking about GPPs. Deshaun Watson was the big signing by Cleveland a few years ago, but he only played six games in his first two seasons with his new team. That’s why he’s barely cracking $7,000, but we’re talking about a quarterback who was a top-five option in his final three years in Houston. He could recapture that form after a full offseason and they’ve surrounded him with one of the best offenses in the NFL. This is risky, but Watson could be a significant bounceback candidate.
Running Backs
DraftKings
Zack Moss (RB – CIN): $5,800 vs. NWE
With Joe Mixon going to Houston, it could be Zack Moss’ backfield in Cincy. He’s competing with Chase Brown for touches, but Moss should still see at least 10-15 carries in every game and all of the goal-line work. That’s massive this week because Cincy is the biggest favorite on the slate in a home opener against New England. When he recorded at least 13 carries filling in for Jonathan Taylor last season he averaged nearly 20 fantasy points per game.
Javonte Williams (RB – DEN): $5,500 at SEA
Javonte Williams was recovering from ACL surgery last season, but this should be his backfield now. As someone who’s had ACL surgery, it’s always the following year when things feel normal. That’s huge since Williams looked like a stud before the injury, averaging 13 DraftKings points per game in his rookie season. That’s awesome from a $5,500 player. We we don’t want to fade him against a Seattle team that surrendered the third-most fantasy points to opposing rushers.
FanDuel
Chuba Hubbard (RB – CAR): $5,600 at NO
The Carolina backfield has been dismantled with Jonathon Brooks on injured reserve (IR). Chuba Hubbard could see a bell-cow-type role. That means 15 carries and at least 5-6 targets are in play. Not many sub-$6,000 players could get that type of workload. He had over 10 carries in 11 games last season, averaging 12 FanDuel points per game in that expanded role. In addition, he had 23 carries for 87 yards in his final matchup against New Orleans.
Rico Dowdle (RB – DAL): $5,200 at CLE
This is the riskiest week to choose GPP running backs because we don’t know who will get the ball in some of these backfields. Rico Dowdle is battling Ezekiel Elliott for touches in Dallas. We have to assume Dowdle will get more work than Elliott. We don’t have much data to back that up, but whoever the lead rusher is on this offense should be a massive boon in DFS. If it’s Dowdle, this is the last time he’ll be below $6,000.
Wide Receivers
DraftKings
Chris Godwin (WR – TB): $5,800 vs. WAS
We just talked about how recovering from an ACL fully usually takes two years. Chris Godwin is in the same boat. This guy was a top-10 receiver before that injury, and we saw glimpses of it at the end of last year. Godwin averaged 16 DraftKings points per game over the final six weeks and should have success here since Washington surrendered the second-most fantasy points to opposing receivers last year.
DeMario Douglas (WR – NE): $4,800 at CIN
This Patriots’ offense might be the worst in the NFL because nobody knows who will touch the ball. We bet DeMario Douglas is their top receiver, which is something you don’t find from a sub-$5,000 player. This team needs to throw because they’re the biggest underdog on this slate. He averaged 4.3 catches on 6.9 targets over the final 10 games of last year, establishing himself as the top target in this offense.
FanDuel
Diontae Johnson (WR – CAR): $5,600 at NOS
Many people don’t realize this, but Diontae Johnson is one of the best route runners in the NFL. He’s ranked as a top-five player in getting open, averaging 94 catches on 153 targets between 2020 and 2022. A down season last year hurt those numbers, but changing to Carolina should have him as the top option again. We wouldn’t be shocked to see Johnson post a team target share above 25%, which should help a talented youngster like Bryce Young improve.
Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF): $5,400 vs. ARI
Here we are with another significant question mark. The Bills got rid of Stefon Diggs in the offseason, and nobody knows who the top receiver in Buffalo will be. Rumors say it will be Khalil Shakir simply because he’s one of the only players on this roster who played with Josh Allen. If he plays 90% of the snaps and sees double-digit targets, Shakir could be $1,500 more by Week 4. He also averaged 13 fantasy points per game over the final three games last year and is trending in all the right ways.
Tight Ends
DraftKings
Taysom Hill (TE – NO): $4,300 vs. CAR
Taysom Hill will be in the GPP section throughout the season because he will inevitably break a handful of DFS slates. It isn’t easy to judge when those will happen, but this is an excellent spot for him to get some goal-line carries. Carolina allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing rushers, which is essentially what Hill is as the Saints’ goal-line back. He scored at least 8.1 DraftKings points in half the games last season and had 75 rushing yards in his one matchup versus the Panthers. The Saints are one of the biggest favorites of the week, which is the perfect recipe for an upside game for Hill.
FanDuel
Pat Freiermuth (TE – PIT): $5,300 at ATL
When looking at his numbers, it’s challenging to get excited about Pat Freiermuth, but this should be a career year for the third-year tight end. Diontae Johnson gobbled up nearly 100 catches and 130 targets on the Steelers every year. We have to assume Freiermuth will receive a 20% team target share as the second-best receiving option in this offense with Johnson gone. This might be the cheapest Freiermuth will be all year in that type of role. It’s a good opportunity to capitalize on that upside in a GPP.
Defense/Special Teams
DraftKings
Las Vegas Raiders D/ST: $2,800 at LAC
Finding a D/ST below $3,000 is tough, but DraftKings made a pricing mistake. The Raiders scored 25 DraftKings points in their Week 15 matchup against the Chargers. That offense might be worse than the one we saw last year, parting ways with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler. That should allow Vegas to have another solid showing, but you don’t need much from a $2,800 D/ST.
FanDuel
Cincinnati Bengals D/ST: $4,800 vs. NE
Most people will pivot to New Orleans and Dallas on FanDuel, but we will ride with Cincy. The statistics don’t say much, but they’re playing what might be the worst offense in the AFC. That’s why the Bengals enter this matchup as a 9.5-point favorite, with the Patriots projected to score under 20 points.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Joel, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
