Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards, but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football. I hope you will join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.

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Week 1 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool that is now freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 wide receivers from most to fewest air yards. From Amari Cooper‘s 170 air yards all the way down to Gabe Davis‘ 48. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all of these pieces of data together provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us a significant number of takeaways from Week 1. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset.

Week 1 Air Yards and Air Yards% Data

Top Takeaways From Week 1 Air Yards Data

Hanging With Amari Cooper

The league leader in air yards after one week of games isn’t Cooper Kupp or Tyreek Hill or Nico Collins. It’s Amari Cooper with an incredible 170 air yards in his first game. What makes it even more unusual is that Cooper had a truly awful game for fantasy purposes with just two catches for 16 yards and zero scores. Deshaun Watson threw him nine targets, but they didn’t result in much production. This clearly was not an Amari Cooper problem as nine targets, 170 air yards and an 18.9 aDOT is typically a recipe for success in fantasy football. But Amari Cooper managers should be worried about Deshaun Watson going forward.

Watson had the sixth-lowest completion percentage among all quarterbacks, he took the most sack yards on the weekend (32) and was 31st in adjusted new yards per pass attempt, according to Fantasy Points Data. Of the 169 passing yards he did get on Sunday, a full two-thirds of those came as the result of yards after the catch. Those are wide receiver strengths, and not on Deshaun Watson. Considering all of this plus new legal issues that popped up this week, I would be very worried if I rostered any Browns pass-catchers.

Fill My Kupp With Targets

Wow. Twenty-one targets. That’s the most targets a wide receiver has seen since Antonio Brown had 23 in November of 2015. We know now that it was a direct result of Puka Nacua leaving the game with an injured knee, but it’s clear Cooper Kupp is going to be the primary receiver to fill that gap while he is gone. It almost makes Kupp’s high air yards a fluke. This is one time where the number doesn’t tell the whole story. Kupp’s air yards ranked fourth among wide receivers because he saw nine more targets than any other player.

His aDOT was 7.3 yards, meaning he was the only wide receiver in the top 25 of air yards that had an aDOT lower than nine yards. In his career, Kupp has been a yards after the catch master, and an accumulator of massive volume. He may have up-and-down weeks in terms of air yards, but they don’t impact his performance like they will with other receivers.

Moore Throws Downfield, Please

A 32% target share for D.J. Moore was one of the top marks among all wide receivers in Week 1, but that’s not much solace to fantasy managers who saw just five catches for 36 receiving yards in the box score. Truthfully, it’s a surprise he got to 36 considering Caleb Williams only threw 92 in the entire game. Even with eight targets, because Williams couldn’t get the ball downfield, Moore’s 53 air yards ranked 47th at the position.

It was certainly not a good debut for the number one overall selection. Even though his defense and special teams bailed Caleb Williams out, Bears receivers suffered. At 88% of routes run, Moore clearly played ahead of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. His eight targets were second on the team. All of these are encouraging signs, but the team needs to let Williams start slinging it more before we see “Moore” out of the Bears’ top receiver.

Jameson Williams Has Arrived

Things are certainly starting to look up for Jameson Williams. Among all wide receivers this weekend, he was near the top in air yards (127), targets (nine), target share (32%) and air yards share (68%, behind only George Pickens and Calvin Ridley). But perhaps the most encouraging sign was that he didn’t have some astronomical aDOT — it was a manageable 14.1 yards. Williams can do plenty after the catch and it seems the Lions have finally learned that. He doesn’t need to catch every ball 35 yards down the field.

Detroit seemed to find ways to scheme him the ball at all areas of the field and not just hit him on deep bombs. A deep bomb did give him his touchdown catch, but it is nice to see Detroit views Williams as an all-around receiver. And not just a home run threat from time to time.