NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways (2024)

Analyzing air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards, but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could always vary from week to week.

Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football. I hope you will join me every Wednesday during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.

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Week 2 Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways

Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.

This list represents the top 50 players from most to fewest air yards. From Malik Nabers’ 208 air yards down to Nelson Agholor‘s 52. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.

Showcasing all of these pieces of data together with a heat map provides opportunities for a quick eye test from this chart and gives us a significant number of takeaways from Week 2. In this weekly piece, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this dataset, which might help with fantasy start sit decisions, fantasy football trade values and more.

Top Takeaways From Week 2 Air Yards Data

Malik Nabers Has Arrived

In the many years I have been analyzing air yards, I don't think I have ever come across a 66.7% target share or a 74.6% air yards share. Malik Nabers demanded 18 targets on Sunday. All other players on the New York Giants combined for nine. This is the type of dominant usage many fantasy analysts were hoping for when Nabers showed up and immediately became the best pass-catcher on the team. But never would we have thought it would explode to these types of numbers and give him 208 air yards by Week 2.

For some context, the high in air yards for Week 1 was 170 yards by Amari Cooper. In 2023, 200 air yards to a single player happened fewer than 25 times all year. Even Daniel Jones doesn't seem to be able to screw up an uber-talented player like Nabers who has next to no target competition in New York. Nabers has a legitimate shot at leading all wide receivers in air yards and air yards share for the rest of the season.

Calvin Ridley is the Clear No. 1 WR

Despite the fact Calvin Ridley finished with "only" 77 receiving yards on Sunday, it is clear he is the top option in Tennessee and one of the early-season ball hogs racking up targets and air yards. Ridley's day should have been much better as his 159 air yards ranked fourth among wide receivers and his 54.1% air yards share ranked eighth. Ridley did get the rushing touchdown, just to show how versatile he can be in this offense.

With DeAndre Hopkins slowly being worked back in (he hasn't played 50% of snaps in a game yet), and no other wide receivers to worry about, Will Levis has set his sights on Ridley. I don't expect a 26.5-yard average depth of target (aDOT) trend to continue, but that will be supplemented by more targets when Ridley is not lined up against guys like Sauce Gardner as he was on Sunday.

Better Days Ahead for DJ Moore (Hopefully)

It was not a pretty game for the Chicago Bears on Sunday night. They scored just 13 points, Caleb Williams was running for his life all game, and the passing game looked completely out of sorts, even to the point DJ Moore was visibly frustrated. However, if the Bears can shore up the offensive line and Caleb Williams can continue to improve (two very big "ifs"), Moore might just be able to get back on track as a fantasy WR1.

Moore was a top-12 wide receiver in both targets (10) and air yards (112) this past weekend. Caleb Williams was completely off-target, but it's clear he wants to force the ball to Moore as much as he can. Perhaps what needs to be done is shrink the 11.2-yard aDOT Moore saw in that game. Caleb Williams has not completed a throw beyond 15 yards this season. He and Moore need to generate some easy pass-and-catch options to get them both on track.

Quentin Johnston Gets a Lot With a Little

Quentin Johnston's underlying numbers from Sunday are a case study of why you shouldn't put all your eggs in the target share or air yards share basket. Johnston was in the top 20 among all wide receivers with a 31.6% target share and a 44.9% air yards share. He also pulled down two touchdowns in the best fantasy day of his young career. But that doesn't tell the whole story.

Johnston only had six targets and five receptions in the game. The Chargers threw the ball only 20 times for a total of 130 yards. Through two games, the Chargers are 30th in passing play percentage as they clearly plan to run the ball as much as possible. That may still mean Johnston gets a high target share and air yards share number, but don't expect many high-yardage games with two touchdowns anymore. This offense isn't designed to play like that.