MLB DFS Picks, Sleeper & Underdog Player Props: Wednesday (9/18)

Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has 12 games starting at 6:35 p.m. ET. The Sleeper and Underdog player props are also from the 12-game slate.

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Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Wednesday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Tarik Skubal (DET) at KC
Tarik Skubal isn't slowing down in an outstanding campaign. According to FanGraphs, in his previous five starts spanning 30.2 innings, Skubal has had a 2.35 ERA, 2.73 xFIP, 2.92 SIERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.4 BB%, 28.8 K%, 29.1 CSW%, 102 Stuff+, 101 Location+, 103 Pitching+ and three quality starts. He has an average matchup and favorable betting info tonight.

The Royals are 19th in wRC+ (94) with an 18.9 K% versus lefties this year. However, Kansas City is tied for 12th in wRC+ (104) with a 17.4 K% at home this season. They were also 17th in wRC+ (87) with a juicy 23.7 K% in the previous 14 days. Thus, the Tigers are -150, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.

Sonny Gray (STL) vs. PIT
Sonny Gray is in superb form. In his last five starts totaling 30.0 innings, he's had a 3.00 ERA, 3.28 xFIP, 3.44 SIERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.7 BB%, 27.7 K%, 32.3 CSW%, 116 Stuff+, 103 Location+, 104 Pitching+ and three quality starts. The veteran righty has a dreamy matchup and ideal betting info tonight.

The Pirates are tied for 28th in wRC+ (84) with a 23.9 K% versus righties and 27th in wRC+ (81) with a 26.0 K% on the road this year. Pittsburgh was also tied for 25th in wRC+ (77) with a 24.0 K% in the previous 14 days. So, the Red Birds are -168, and the game's total is 7.5 runs.

Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) at CIN

Spencer Schwellenbach has outperformed his ERA estimators lately. Still, he's been rock-solid. In the rookie's last five starts spanning 28.0, Schwellenbach has had a 2.89 ERA, 3.65 xFIP, 3.72 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 5.2 BB%, 24.3 K%, 28.0 CSW%, 103 Stuff+, 109 Location+, 111 Pitching+ and two quality starts. The Reds are a favorable matchup, and the betting info is also tasty.

The Reds are 24th in wRC+ (92) with a 25.0 K% versus righties and 27th in wRC+ (89) with a 24.0 K% at home this year. Cincinnati was also tied for 25th in wRC+ (77) with a 27.2 K% in the previous 14 days. Finally, the Braves are -155, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

• Road (Great American Ball Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/ATL -155

Jakob Junis's 1.66 ERA in his previous six appearances (three starts) was a fluke, evidenced by his 4.00 xFIP and 3.63 SIERA. Stacking against a pitcher with a stark contrast between their ERA and ERA estimators is always enticing. Moreover, the Braves will get a lift from playing at Great American Ball Park tonight.

• Road (Progressive Field)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/MIN EVEN

The Twins have a top-10 offense against righties, ranking seventh in wRC+ (109) against right-handed pitching this season. They're also average on the road, sporting the 15th-highest wRC+ (98) on the road this year. Minnesota is also getting healthier.

They have an inviting matchup tonight. In Tanner Bibee's last five starts, he's had a 4.88 ERA, 4.26 xFIP, 4.04 SIERA and 1.41 WHIP.

Core Studs

• Matt Olson is in a groove. In his previous 27 games and 115 plate appearances, he's hit five homers with 17 runs, 26 RBIs, a .365 OBP, .280 ISO and 150 wRC+.
• In 451 career plate appearances against righties, Matt Wallner has hit 26 homers with a .390 OBP, .287 ISO and 165 wRC+.
• In 640 plate appearances this year, Marcell Ozuna has blasted 37 homers with 90 runs, 98 RBIs, a .380 OBP, .247 ISO and 156 wRC+.

Value Plays/Punts

• Michael Harris isn't having a banner year. Nevertheless, he's Atlanta's leadoff hitter and hitting well enough in September. In 15 games and 70 plate appearances this month, he's hit four homers and stolen one base with nine runs, 10 RBIs, a .271 OBP, .227 ISO and 101 wRC+.
• In Jonathan Aranda's past 15 games and 50 plate appearances, he's hit two homers with eight runs, five RBIs, a .340 OBP, .227 ISO and 138 wRC+.
• Trevor Larnach is having a career year. In 371 plate appearances this season, he's hit 15 homers with four stolen bases, a .334 OBP, .189 ISO and 121 wRC+.

Wednesday's Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Tanner Bibee: 28.5 Fantasy Points - Less (Sleeper) (1.68x)

Tanner Bibee: 31.5 Fantasy Points - Lower (Underdog)

The Twins were a featured stack because Bibee is in lousy form. Cleveland's righty has pitched fewer than 6.0 innings in seven of his previous 10 starts, disqualifying him from eligibility for a quality start. Thus, his inability to pitch deep depresses his fantasy scoring upside. Bibee has also permitted at least three earned runs in three of his previous five starts.

Jonathan Aranda: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs - More (Sleeper) (1.83x)

Jonathan Aranda: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs - Higher (Underdog)

Aranda has dominated in the upper minors but failed to translate his minor-league success at the plate to the majors. Yet, he might have found his footing this month. In 44 plate appearances this month, Aranda has had 11 hits, seven runs, four RBIs, a .289 batting average, .364 OBP, .237 ISO and 152 wRC+. As a result, he's frequently hit second or cleanup. Most recently, Aranda has batted cleanup in back-to-back games. He's provided the Rays with run production. Aranda has exceeded 1.5 hits plus runs and RBIs in seven of his previous eight starts.

Tarik Skubal: 28.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Sleeper) (1.66x)

Tarik Skubal: 37.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog)

Skubal's recent heater was noted above. However, he's having an elite season overall. In 29 starts spanning 180.0 innings, Skubal has had a 2.50 ERA, 2.78 xERA, 2.92 SIERA, 0.94 WHIP, 4.7 BB%, 30.2 K%, 32.1 CSW%, 103 Stuff+, 103 Location+ and 106 Pitching+. Skubal has struck out at least seven batters in 18 starts this year. He's also spun 21 quality starts. Skubal is catching the Royals at the right time and should spin a gem tonight.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.