MLB DFS Picks, Sleeper & Underdog Player Props: Friday (9/20)

Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate at DraftKings and FanDuel has 12 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET. The Sleeper and Underdog picks are also from the 12-game slate.

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Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Friday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Joe Musgrove (SD) vs. CWS
Joe Musgrove has a mouthwatering matchup tonight. According to FanGraphs, the White Sox are 30th in wRC+ (75) with a 23.8 K% versus righties and 30th in wRC+ (74) with a 25.0 K% on the road this season. Chicago was also 25th in wRC+ (77) with a 23.4 K% in the previous 14 days. So, Musgrove should stay hot.

In his previous five starts spanning 29.1 innings, Musgrove had a 2.76 ERA, 3.05 xFIP, 2.83 SIERA, 0.89 WHIP, 3.5 BB%, 30.7 K%, 32.7 CSW%, 130 Stuff+, 105 Location+, 104 Pitching+ and four quality starts. Unsurprisingly, the Padres are -260, and the game's total is 7.0 runs.

Charlie Morton (ATL) at MIA
Charlie Morton is in a groove. In his past five starts totaling 29.0 innings, he's had a 2.79 ERA, 3.58 xFIP, 3.86 SIERA, 1.38 WHIP, 10.4 BB%, 27.2 K%, 28.3 CSW% and two quality starts. He should stay in good form in a plus matchup.

The Marlins are 26th in wRC+ (90) with a 23.0 K% versus righties and tied for 28th in wRC+ (89) with a 21.7 K% at home this year. They were also 17th in wRC+ (88) with a 23.0 K% in the previous 14 days. Thus, the Braves are -205, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.

Gerrit Cole (NYY) at OAK

Gerrit Cole is overpriced on FanDuel. Yet, he's an appealing, high-upside selection in GPPs at his salary on DraftKings. Cole has been solid, if unspectacular, lately. In his last five starts spanning 27.1 innings, Cole has had a 3.62 ERA, 4.67 xFIP, 4.30 SIERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.6 BB%, 23.7 K%, 25.7 CSW%, 109 Stuff+, 98 Location+, 101 Pitching+ and three quality starts. Cole's ERA estimators were unimpressive, but his pitch modeling was stellar. The A's are a midpack matchup.

Oakland is tied for 15th in wRC+ (101) with a 25.1 K% versus righties and 12th in wRC+ (104) with a 23.8 K% at home this season. They were also 10th in wRC+ (99) with a 25.7 K% in the previous 14 days. Oakland isn't a pushover, but they're strikeout-prone. Finally, the Yankees are -200, and the game's total is 8.0 runs.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

• Road (Fenway Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/MIN -115

The Twins are tied for sixth in wRC+ (109) versus righties and 16th in wRC+ (98) on the road this year. However, they're not in any road venue. Minnesota is in one of MLB's most hitter-friendly ballparks.

The Twins also have a tasty matchup. In 24 appearances (23 starts) in Triple-A this season, Richard Fitts had a 4.17 ERA and 4.66 xFIP. He's been exceptionally lucky through two starts for the Red Sox, tallying a 0.00 ERA, 3.68 xERA, 5.67 xFIP, 6.09 SIERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.5 BB% and 9.5 K%. Minnesota should start his regression process tonight.

• Road (American Family Field)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/ARI -125

Arizona's offense is a powerhouse. The Diamondbacks are tied for fourth in wRC+ (113) versus righties and tied for fourth in wRC+ (110) on the road. Arizona was also second in wRC+ (131) in the previous 14 days. They're in an eruption spot against a struggling hurler. Colin Rea has had an 8.02 ERA, 4.86 xFIP and 4.52 SIERA in his last five appearances (four starts). He's allowed a .319 wOBA to righties and a .324 wOBA to lefties this season.

Core Studs

• In 246 plate appearances this season, Matt Wallner has hit 13 homers with three stolen bases, 26 runs, 36 RBIs, a .370 OBP, .280 ISO and 157 wRC+.
• Since 2022, Joc Pederson has had a .367 OBP, .236 ISO and 140 wRC+ against righties.
• Eugenio Suarez is locked in. In his last 26 games and 109 plate appearances, he's hit 10 homers with 24 runs, 28 RBIs, a .385 OBP, .343 ISO and 189 wRC+.

Value Plays/Punts

• Trevor Larnach has hit 15 homers and stolen four bases with 56 runs, 48 RBIs, a .331 OBP, .187 ISO, 119 wRC+, .334 wOBA and .353 xwOBA this season.
• In Pavin Smith's previous 62 plate appearances, he's hit five homers and stolen one base with 13 runs, 17 RBIs, a .452 OBP, .408 ISO and 216 wRC+.
• In 322 plate appearances against lefties since 2022, Edmundo Sosa has hit 11 homers with a .319 OBP, .225 ISO and 122 wRC+.

Friday's Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props

Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet

Cristopher Sanchez: 25.5 Fantasy Points - Less (Sleeper) (1.88x)

Cristopher Sanchez: 33.5 Fantasy Points - Lower (Underdog)

Cristopher Sanchez has stark home and road splits, pitching much worse on the road than at home. In 19 starts spanning 92.1 innings on the road since last year, he's had a 4.27 ERA, 3.76 xFIP, 1.45 WHIP and 16.0 K%. The lefty's lack of strikeouts on the road hurts his fantasy-scoring potential. Sanchez's matchup against the Mets is also challenging. They are tied for second in wRC+ (120) versus lefties and tied for sixth in wRC+ (114) at home this year.

Richard Fitts: 4.5 Strikeous - Less (Sleeper) (1.63x)

Richard Fitts: 4.5 Strikeouts - Lower (Underdog)

Fitts has lucked his way to a 0.00 ERA in two starts for the Red Sox despite dreadful strikeout and bat-missing numbers. In two starts totaling 10.2 innings, the rookie righty has had a 9.5 BB%, 9.5 K%, 3.38 K/9, four strikeouts, a 4.5 SwStr% (11.0% is the league average) and 21.8 CSW%. Fitts has struck out precisely two batters in each big-league start. The Twins have a potent offense that should rip his pitch-to-contact approach and knock him out of the game early at hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

Joe Musgrove: 31.5 Fantasy Points - More (Sleeper) (1.69x)

Joe Musgrove: 36.5 Fantasy Points - Higher (Underdog)

I highlighted Musgrove as the top pitcher on tonight's DFS slate because he's in excellent form and has a dreamy matchup and matching betting info. Additionally, Musgrove has pitched well at home. In 21 starts spanning 115.2 innings at home since last year, Musgrove has had a 3.66 ERA, 3.69 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 4.7 BB%, 25.3 K% and 10 quality starts.

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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.