MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets: Sunday (9/1)

This is the final Sunday that MLB doesn’t have to compete with the NFL. Unfortunately, they will never win that battle, and the prize pools will plummet starting next week. We’re still going to grind away, and we want one more big payout in this final month of the year.

With that said, let’s get into this Sunday slate.

• Weekly Trade Value Chart
• Weekly Waiver Wire Advice
• Weekly Fantasy Baseball Content
• Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Trade Value Chart
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

Sunday’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Bryce Miller (SEA) at LAA
This Seattle rotation has been remarkable this season, with Miller being one of the biggest surprises. The righty has a 3.23 ERA and 0.98 WHIP but has been even better in the second half. In fact, Miller has maintained a 1.89 ERA and 0.78 WHIP across his last eight starts. That should be easy to duplicate against LA, with the Angels ranked 26th or 27th in runs scored, OBP, and wOBA. He’s faced them twice this season, throwing 13 scoreless innings in those gems.

Logan Webb (SF) vs. MIA
Webb doesn’t get enough credit for how consistent he has been. The San Fran slinger has a 1.70 ERA and 0.83 WHIP across his last six starts. We’d use him against anyone, but Miami is one of the best possible matchups. The Marlins rank 29th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA, with Webb entering this game as a -250 favorite. In addition, Webb has a 2.26 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home this year.

Dylan Cease (SD) at TB
Cease was terrible in his last start, but that’s an outlier. This former Cy Young candidate was amid one of the best stretches of his career before that, tallying a 1.58 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 10.8 K/9 rate across his previous eight starts. Tampa is usually a terrifying lineup, but that’s not the case this season. The Rays rank 25th in K rate and 28th in runs scored!

Sean Manaea (NYM) at CWS
It’s hard to believe, but Manaea is one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. The lefty has allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of his last 14 starts, providing a 2.93 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 9.7 K/9 rate in that span. The strikeout stuff is what’s truly shocking, but it’s going to continue against Chicago. The White Sox rank last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA.

MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks

Boston Red Sox (vs. Ty Madden)

• Road (Comerica Park)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9.5 Runs/BOS -125

The Red Sox have been a Top 10 offense in the second half of the season, and there’s no chance a rookie like Madden slows them down. The righty has only made one start at this level, posting a 7.97 ERA and 1.77 WHIP at Triple-A before his call-up.

Seattle Mariners (vs. Caden Dana)

• Road (Angel Stadium)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 9 Runs/SEA -160

The Angels are in rebuild mode, and they’ll send this rookie out for his first career start. Dana had some elite numbers in the minors, but he’s just 20 years old and has never pitched above Double-A. This is a good spot for this struggling Seattle lineup to get back on track!

MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs

• Not much needs to be said when talking about a player like Judge. This guy is on pace for another 60-homer season and has been unbelievable since the opening month. Judge has a .513 OBP, .854 SLG, and 1.367 OPS across his last 98 games. Not many players have ever had a better 100-game span, and we have to use him against Miles Mikolas‘ 5.23 ERA.
• Ohtani and Judge are having historical seasons, with Shohei flirting with the first-ever 50-50 season. He was already the first player to go 40-40, collecting nine dingers and 11 steals over his last 18 games. Most players don’t do that in two months, and we love that he faces a righty who’s allowed 14 runs across his last three starts. Shohei has a 1.102 OPS against right-handers this year as well!
• Devers has been sitting recently with a shoulder issue, but we must use him in this matchup. The slugger has a .375 OBP and .969 OPS since sitting a week at the end of April and also has a .402 OBP and 1.066 OPS against righties this year.
• Seattle has been struggling mightily, but it’s no fault of Arozarena. The trade deadline acquisition has been their best hitter, providing a .395 OBP and .885 OPS across his last 65 games. He’s also got a .996 OPS over the last week and needs to be utilized against an unproven rookie.

MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts

• Yoshi has not gotten enough credit for his work since signing with the Red Sox. Since that signing, the slugger has a .291 AVG and .788 OPS, accumulating a .388 OBP and .864 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. He also comes into this matchup rolling, registering a .342 AVG and .934 OPS across his last 31 outings!
• Nothing about Paredes’s numbers in Chicago will make you want to use him, but he’s too good to be this bad. We’re talking about a guy who had a .357 OBP and .792 OPS before the trade, and it’s just a matter of time before he returns to that. We’re willing to bet that starts here because of the matchup with Mitchell Parker, who has a 5.81 ERA and 1.50 WHIP since July 1. It also gives Paredes the platoon advantage, accruing a .376 OBP and .908 OPS against lefties this year!
• Minnesota has these random platoon players that always seem to go off when they face a righty. Matt Wallner and Larnach are two of those studs, with Larnach producing a .801 OPS against righties this year. Most of that damage has happened recently, collecting a 1.132 OPS across his last 10 outings. That’s terrible news for Yariel Rodriguez and his 4.82 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
• Conforto isn’t the stud we remember from his Mets days, but this lefty masher is playing much better in the second half. The slugger has a .365 OBP and .913 OPS across his last 23 outings, doing almost all of that against righties. That won’t bode well for Miami because they’re sending out Xzavion Curry, who had a 6.82 ERA and 1.48 WHIP at Triple-A.

Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Bryce Miller: 17.5 Recorded Outs – Higher

Miller just has to pitch six innings to clear this prop, which should happen easily against a 25th-ranked Angels offense. He’s done that in their last two matchups!

Logan Webb: 35? Fantasy Points –

This number hasn’t been released, but we like Webb to clear it no matter what. He has elite home numbers and should cruise through seven flawless innings against the second-worst offense in baseball. He is also a great bet for a win.

Aaron Judge: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher

This guy hasn’t homered yet this week but still has an OBP above .500 since the year’s opening month. A matchup with Mikolas is a great way to break that streak, but all he needs is a double to clear this prop.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.