MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets: Saturday (9/28)

I hate to say this, but this is my final article of the season! I usually cover the Saturday and Sunday slates, but writing an article on the final Sunday is pointless. Teams rest most of their hitters, and almost every pitcher is on a pitch count. That’s why this is the season’s last “real” slate, and I’m looking to finish the season strong! With that said, I want to thank all of you for reading throughout the year!

Let’s look at this Saturday slate!

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Saturday’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Blake Snell (SF) vs. STL
Snell had a 9.51 ERA and 1.94 WHIP before landing on the IL on June 2, but he’s got a 1.23 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and 12.8 K/9 rate in 14 starts since then. That sort of stretch earned him a Cy Young last season, and it looks even better since he has a 0.72 ERA and 13.3 K/9 rate at home in that span. A matchup with the Cards is far from concerning, with St. Louis sitting 23rd in runs scored. In his last start against the Cardinals, Snell slung seven scoreless innings en route to nearly 60 FanDuel points!

Zack Wheeler (PHI) at WAS
Wheeler is one of the frontrunners for NL Cy Young, compiling a 2.56 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He’s also scored at least 34 FanDuel points in 10 straight starts, sporting a 1.80 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 10.5 K/9 rate in that span. That won’t bode well for a woeful Washington offense, with the Nats ranked 25th in runs scored and 26th in wOBA. That’s why Wheeler enters this matchup as a -220 favorite!

Andrew Heaney (TEX) at LAA
Heaney’s 5-14 win-loss record is horrific, but his 3.98 ERA and 1.22 WHIP are more indicative of how good this guy has been. The lefty has allowed four runs or fewer in all but two starts this season, posting a 3.13 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 rate across his last six starts. That should be easy to duplicate against Los Angeles, with the Angels ranked 26th or 27th in OBP, wOBA, and runs scored. In their last matchup a few weeks ago, Heaney had 43 FanDuel points!

Kutter Crawford (BOS) vs. TB
Crawford has been inconsistent this season, but a 4.17 ERA and 1.10 WHIP is nothing to complain about. He’s also allowed four runs or fewer in eight straight starts, generating a 3.94 FIP and 1.01 WHIP in that stretch. A home matchup with Tampa is the best part of this, with the Rays ranked 27th in K rate, 29th in runs scored, and 26th in wOBA.

MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers (vs. Antonio Senzatela)

• Road (Coors Field)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/LAD -275

The Dodgers are a top-three offense in nearly every metric, and it’s scary to think what they’ll do in Coors Field. Not only do the Rockies rank last in ERA and WHIP, but the Dodgers are projected to score nearly seven runs in every game of this series! That’s no surprise since Senzatela has a 5.68 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 14 career starts against them while posting a 4.86 career ERA and 1.44 WHIP in general.

San Diego Padres (vs. Eduard Rodriguez)

• Road (Chase Field)
• Game Total/Moneyline: NA Runs/SD -NA

The Padres have the best offensive numbers in the NL since the All-Star break, and they’re even better against lefties. That’s scary for a southpaw like E-Rod, who’s registered a 5.56 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season.

MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs

• This $8,100 price tag is laughable, but Ohtani probably earned it. He’s flirting with a 60-60 season and faces the worst pitching staff in the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball. He’s also got seven homers and nine steals over his last 12 games, posting an absurd 1.682 OPS in that span. In his last eight games against the Rockies, Shohei has a 1.739 OPS as well!
• Tatis has always been one of the best players in DFS, and he’s been terrorizing pitchers since coming off the IL. The All-Star has a .306 AVG and 1.014 OPS across his last 18 games. He also has the platoon advantage against E-Rod, which is fantastic since San Diego is one of the highest projected offenses on this slate!
• Gunnar is having an incredible season in Baltimore, but it’s being overlooked because of guys like Ohtani and Aaron Judge. In any case, Henderson has 37 homers and 21 steals, thanks to his .366 OBP and .897 OPS. He also has a .928 OPS against righties this year and faces one with a 5.71 ERA and 1.50 WHIP!
• The Phillies earned their spot in the postseason, and Turner has been a primary reason. The speedy shortstop has a .296 AVG and .820 OPS over the last four months while maintaining a .366 OBP and .879 OPS against left-handers! Turner has seen Gore 17 times, posting a .529 OBP and 1.172 OPS against him!

MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts

• Finding cheap LA bats is never easy, but Muncy is one of the few guys you can pair with Ohtani. The slugger has been dominant since he joined LA, providing a .356 OBP and .843 OPS in a Dodger uniform. He’s also been much better against righties, which is awesome since he has a .851 career OPS in Coors Field.
• Profar would be one of the favorites for Comeback Player of the Year if that were a thing in MLB, tallying a .380 OBP and .841 OPS in the best year of his career. He’s also been hitting in the heart of the Padres lineup, sporting a .386 OBP and .894 OPS against southpaws this season.
• Conforto has always been a much better bat against righties, and we can’t fade him with how hot the outfielder is right now. The San Fran slugger has a .375 AVG and 1.224 OPS across his last eight outings! We do not want to overlook that against a pitcher with a 3.71 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
• The Mariners have one of the worst offenses in baseball, but it’s not Raley’s fault. He always bats in the heart of their lineup against righties, amassing a .813 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. He’s also rolling right now, generating a .378 OBP and .951 OPS across his last 43 fixtures. That should bode well against Joey Estes and his 4.99 ERA!

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Andre Pallante: 17.5 Outs Recorded – Higher

Pallante has been fantastic recently, posting a 2.74 ERA and 1.20 WHIP across his last eight starts. He’s also completed 21 outs in four of those and shouldn’t have any issues finishing six innings in a pitcher’s park like Oracle!

Paul Skenes: 3.5 Hits Allowed – Higher

Skenes will be one of the best pitchers of this generation, but 3.5 hits is too low. Not only are the Yankees a Top 5 offense, but Skenes has surrendered at least four hits in 14 of his last 18 starts!

Jose Ramirez: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher

Justin Verlander is one of the worst pitchers in baseball right now, and J-Ram should have at least one extra-base hit in this matchup. Ramirez has faced JV 46 times, posting a .413 OBP and 1.028 OPS against him!

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.