MLB DFS Picks & Player Prop Bets: Saturday (9/14)

It’s hard to believe, but we only have 15 days left in the regular season. As a baseball fanatic, that’s a sad reality, and it’s always a sobering moment when all the games end. I never really know what to do with myself on that first Monday, but we still have two more weeks until then.

With that in mind, let’s dive into this Saturday slate!

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Saturday’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings

Corbin Burnes (BAL) at DET
There aren’t many aces toeing the rubber on this slate, but Burnes is one of them. The O’s righty is having another remarkable season, registering a 3.18 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also allowed just four runs across his last three starts and should be able to tame the Tigers. Detroit ranks 21st in K rate, 24th in wOBA, and 28th in OBP. In his last two starts against Detroit, Burnes has allowed one run across 13 innings while striking out 17 batters.

Max Scherzer (TEX) at SEA
Scherzer is making his first start in a while, but it’s hard to overlook how special this former Cy Young winner was during rehab. The ace had a 2.13 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and 14.9 K/9 rate across his last three rehab starts. That strikeout stuff makes him a sensational option against Seattle, with the Mariners ranked 25th in runs scored, 26th in wOBA, and last in K rate. Those numbers are even worse in Safeco Field, which is superb since Scherzer threw seven one-run innings in his last matchup with the Mariners!

Joe Musgrove (SD) at SF
Musgrove was terrible through the opening months of the year, but an IL stint revived his season. Despite allowing six runs in his last start, Musgrove had a 1.71 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and 9.4 K/9 rate across his previous eight starts. That should bode well in a pitcher’s park like Oracle, especially since San Fran sits 16th in runs scored and 20th in K rate.

Patrick Corbin (WAS) vs. MIA
Woah! We have been stacking against Corbin for five years, but something has clicked with the veteran over the last month. Before allowing seven runs in a shelling last week, Corbin compiled a 1.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 11.2 K/9 rate across his previous three starts. He scored at least 41 FanDuel points in all of those, and facing a Miami team that ranks 29th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, and xwOBA might be the way to get him back on track!

MLB DFS Picks: Suggested Lineup Stacks

Chicago Cubs (vs. Kyle Freeland)

• Road (Coors Field)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 11 Runs/CHC -160

Using any opposing team in Coors Field is the way to go. The Rockies rank last in ERA and WHIP, with the opponent in Coors always projected to score six runs. That’s the highest total on this slate, and it’s no surprise that Kyle Freeland has a 4.97 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. That’s terrifying since the Cubs have been the highest-scoring team in baseball over the last three weeks!

Milwaukee Brewers (vs. Brandon Pfaadt)

• Road (Chase Field)
• Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/ARI -140

Pfaadt is a talented pitcher but something seems off with him right now. The righty has one quality start over his last eight outings, posting a 6.25 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in that span. That won’t sit well against a mauling Milwaukee lineup ranked fourth in OBP and seventh in runs scored!

MLB DFS Picks: Core Studs

• Not many people talk about Suzuki, but he’s been a massive addition to the Cubs. The outfielder has 20 homers and 14 steals, thanks to his .274 AVG. The best part about this is his sensational splits, sporting a .369 OBP and .822 OPS against lefties since 2022. That’s difficult to overlook in Coors, especially since Suzuki has a .432 OBP and .999 OPS across his last 20 outings.
• Schwarber goes on these stretches where it looks like he’s going to homer every game, and he’s in that right now. The slugger has three doubles and seven homers across his last nine games, generating a .500 OBP and 1.726 OPS in that span. He’s also rocked righties throughout his career and shouldn’t have any issues against an overperforming Luis Severino.
• If we stack the Brewers against a lefty, we have to use Adames. The shortstop is leading the NL in RBI, and he’s actually got better splits against righties. That’s impossible to overlook with his hot Adames is right now, providing a .352 OBP and .922 OPS across his last 56 fixtures.
• Butler carries a 20-game hitting streak into this matchup, many of which are outstanding DFS showings. The outfielder has a .373 AVG and 1.161 OPS in that 20-game span, picking up eight homers and four steals as the A’s leadoff hitter. We don’t want to fade a streak like that against Chris Flexen‘s 5.26 ERA and 1.52 WHIP.

MLB DFS Picks: Value Plays/Punts

• There’s no doubt that Paredes has been pitiful since his trade to the Cubs, but facing a lefty in Coors Field could be just what the doctor ordered. We say that because Paredes has a .382 OBP and .900 OPS against lefties this year. He’s also starting to get out of his slump, totaling a .500 OBP and 1.062 OPS across his last four fixtures.
• Why is Wallner still so affordable? This guy has been mashing for months, maintaining a .390 OBP and 1.005 OPS across his last 41 outings. That’s on par with his splits, registering a .387 OBP and 1.003 OPS against right-handers this year.
• Vientos has been one of the most valuable players for the Mets, batting third recently. That bump in the lineup is no surprise since he has a .363 OBP and .903 OPS across his last 26 outings. He’s also slaughtered southpaws all season, amassing a .343 AVG and 1.007 OPS against them. Kolby Allard is not a matchup to be alarmed by, accumulating a 5.92 career ERA!

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props

Luis Severino: 5.5 Strikeouts – Lower

Severino has been pitching above his head all season, and a matchup with Philly in Citizens Bank Ballpark is a recipe for disaster. If we think he will get knocked out early, his 7.8 K/9 rate won’t bode well for clearing six strikeouts.

Brandon Pfaadt: 6.5 Strikeouts – Lower

Getting seven strikeouts against Houston is a harrowing task. They are a Top 5 offense since the All-Star break and have the third-lowest K rate in the league. That’s terrifying since Pfaadt hasn’t cleared this 6.5-strikeout total in six of his last eight starts.

J.T. Ginn: 15.5 Outs Recorded – Higher

Any pitcher facing the White Sox should cruise into the sixth inning. That’s what we need for Ginn, who’s thrown at least five innings in three straight starts. Chicago sits last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and xwOBA.

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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.