Week 3 is in the Books, and the NFL landscape is starting to take shape. Some teams like the Saints have been surprisingly good, while others like the Colts have been shockingly bad. Some offenses seemed to finally come on line this week. So let’s check in on some of the league’s QB situations and our expectations going forward.
- For the Chargers, Justin Herbert aggravated his high-ankle sprain and is now questionable for week 4. If he sits out, Taylor Heinicke will be the starter. Without Herbert the Chargers are a viable target for fantasy defenses, albeit one with a bit less sack-and-turnover upside as other weak offenses due to Jim Harbaugh’s run-first approach. When Herbert returns I’m not interested in starting opposing defenses.
- For the Patriots, rookie Drake Maye saw his first NFL snaps in garbage time against the Jets. I don’t expect him to steal the starting job from Jacoby Brissett soon. The Patriots have been an excellent DST matchup with Brisset, and will remain one, at least to start, if Maye gets the job. Like all rookies, I’ll be happy to start defenses against Maye until he proves we shouldn’t.
- Things are a bit complicated in Miami. Tua Tagovailoa is on IR following his latest concussion. The earliest he could return is Week 7, but I expect him to be sidelined longer. Skylar Thompson is the backup, be he exited last week’s game with a chest injury, with Tim Boyle filling in. The Dolphins also signed Tyler Huntley. So that’s three potential starting QBs in the absence of Tua. The Dolphins are a good defense target with any of them, but not with Tua if and when he returns.
- In Las Vegas, Gardner Minshew II was benched for Aidan O’Connell mid-game, but it’s not a permanent benching. Minshew remains the starter, at least for Week 4.
- In Carolina, Andy Dalton may have just proved that Bryce Young really was the problem. I think it’s safe to say we won’t see Young start in Carolina again this year barring injury, and the Panthers are not a team to target with defenses as long as Dalton is under center.
- For the Jets, Aaron Rodgers looks like his old self. In his age 40 season, not only is he still the top-tier game manager and passer he’s always in, but he appears to have his mobility back as well, having recovered well from the torn achilles he suffered at the beginning of last year.
- In Green Bay, coach Matt LaFleur has been able to record two impressive wins with backup Malik Willis under center, who has played pretty well. Jordan Love is still the better quarterback and will get his job back when he’s healthy, which might be this week. This team is a serious playoff contender with the depth to stay competitive even when their QB1 is sidelined.
- In Chicago, Caleb Williams had his best game yet, but still turned the ball over three times and took four sacks. Even as he progresses into a more competent NFL QB, he will remain a viable DST target as long as the sacks and turnovers keep happening.
- In Denver, Bo Nix also had his best game of the season. The Broncos have avoided very many sacks all season, and if Nix can continue to avoid turnovers like he did last week, they will quickly fall out of the conversation about viable DST targets.
Streaming Defenses: Waiver Wire & Start/Sit Advice
This is a pretty good week for streaming but it might be the last one in a while – byes start next week, with four teams resting in Week 5. But in the meantime we’ve got plenty of teams positioned to take advantage of some of the bad quarterback play we’ve been seeing, including a couple teams under 5% rostership on Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter and Threads. Let’s dive into our fantasy football defense rankings and projections to help identify waiver wire and streaming targets for Week 4.
Week 4 D/ST Fantasy Football Projections
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | LV | CLE | Deshaun Watson | 18.25 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 7.38 | 43% |
| 2 | KC | @LAC | Taylor Heinicke | 15.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 7.31 | 85% |
| 3 | MIA | TEN | Will Levis | 19.25 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 7.33 | 47% |
| 4 | SF | NE | Jacoby Brissett | 14.75 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 7.28 | 99% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 5 | TEN | @MIA | Skylar Thompson | 17.75 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 7.25 | 4% |
| 6 | LAR | @CHI | Caleb Williams | 22 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 7.12 | 1% |
| 7 | NYJ | DEN | Bo Nix | 15.75 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 7.12 | 96% |
| 8 | DAL | @NYG | Daniel Jones | 19.75 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 7.06 | 90% |
| 9 | CLE | @LV | Gardner Minshew II | 19.25 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 6.75 | 96% |
| 10 | HOU | JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 19.75 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 6.56 | 54% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 11 | IND | PIT | Justin Fields | 20.75 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 6.57 | 16% |
| 12 | CHI | LAR | Matthew Stafford | 19 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6.46 | 55% |
| 13 | GB | MIN | Sam Darnold | 20.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 6.38 | 31% |
| 14 | DET | SEA | Geno Smith | 21.25 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 6.33 | 19% |
| 15 | PHI | @TB | Baker Mayfield | 21.25 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 6.21 | 45% |
| 16 | PIT | @IND | Anthony Richardson | 19.25 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 6.10 | 94% |
| 17 | CIN | @CAR | Andy Dalton | 21.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 5.86 | 28% |
| 18 | BAL | BUF | Josh Allen | 21.75 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 5.77 | 93% |
| 19 | NO | @ATL | Kirk Cousins | 22 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.70 | 36% |
| 20 | CAR | CIN | Joe Burrow | 26 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 5.70 | 1% |
| 21 | DEN | @NYJ | Aaron Rodgers | 22.75 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5.68 | 14% |
| 22 | ARI | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 23.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 5.63 | 1% |
| 23 | ATL | NO | Derek Carr | 20.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 5.56 | 5% |
| 24 | NYG | DAL | Dak Prescott | 24.25 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 5.40 | 2% |
| 25 | JAC | @HOU | C.J. Stroud | 25.75 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 5.39 | 5% |
| 26 | BUF | @BAL | Lamar Jackson | 24 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 5.31 | 74% |
| 27 | NE | @SF | Brock Purdy | 24.75 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 5.29 | 4% |
| 28 | MIN | @GB | Jordan Love | 23 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.22 | 53% |
| 29 | TB | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 23.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.20 | 55% |
| 30 | WAS | @ARI | Kyler Murray | 27 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.01 | 1% |
| 31 | LAC | KC | Patrick Mahomes II | 23.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 4.96 | 50% |
| 32 | SEA | @DET | Jared Goff | 25.25 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4.86 | 44% |
Week 4 Matchups
- LV vs CLE: Something about Deshaun Watson really lights a fire in the hearts of opposing pass rushers. Last week he took an incredible 8 sacks and fumbled twice. This created a very good fantasy day for the opposing Giants DST, despite Watson having his best game so far as a passer, throwing a couple touchdowns. This is an offense I would start literally anyone against, and Maxx Crosby and the Raiders aren’t just anyone.
- KC @ LAC: Chargers QB Justin Herbert re-aggravated his high-ankle sprain late in last week’s game and is questionable for next week. As of Tuesday I don’t know if Herbert will start this week, but I’m operating on the assumption that we’ll see Taylor Heinicke because that’s clearly the expectation implied by the Vegas lines. If Heinicke starts, the Chargers are a great matchup with high sack upside. If Herbert starts, I’m not really interested in the Chiefs this week.
- MIA vs TEN: Will Levis continues to be horribly mistake prone, with a pick-six in his third consecutive game. That came with two other turnovers and a league-lead-tying 8 sacks to make Green Bay the #1 fantasy defense last week. To be fair, the Packers’ defense has looked awesome, but the turnover upside provided by the Titans is for everyone.
- SF vs NE: The Jacoby Brisset-led Patriots really could not get anything going against the Jets last week, in what would be a 24-3 loss. 2024 Third overall pick Drake Maye made his NFL debut in this game with a 4th-quarter drive while the game was already at hand. That drive didn’t tell us a ton about Maybe, but we did see him get sacked twice. It stands to reason that such a struggling offense would switch to their future franchize QB at some point, but I would not be hugely surprised if they try to limit Maye’s exposure to this offensive line and keep him out of the starting role until next year.
- TEN @ MIA: With Tua Tagovailoa on IR, Skylar Thompson was the starter last week before he left the game with a chest injury. Tim Boyle played the rest of the game, and the Dolphins also signed Tyler Huntley recently. Any of those three could start this week, and all of them would make a good matchup for the Titans defense.
- LAR @ CHI: Rookie sensation Caleb Williams had his best game of the season so far last week, which is to say still bad. He recorded over 360 passing yards on a league-leading 52 pass attempts, but that’s far from the whole story. He also turned the ball over 3 times and took a healthy 4 sacks while failing to find a win against a not-very-good Colts team, who would ultimately be the #8 DST for the week. If this usage pattern continues, Williams should remain a viable target for fantasy defenses. We’ve seen young QBs who throw often sustain opposing DSTs with sacks and turnovers despite leading a productive offense in the past (hello Joe Burrow), and that looks to be where this offense is trending.
- NYJ vs DEN: Like Williams, Bo Nix also had his best game yet as the hope of the Broncos. Nix has been well-protected all season, and it paid off as he was able to avoid turning the ball over and lead some successful drives. Right now the data tells just that Nix profiles for a low sack rate but high turnover potential, and that should remain true for a Jets defense that got back to dominating last week. But don’t be surprised if the Broncos fall out of my recommended targets in better matchups, if Bo is able to build on this and limit turnovers.
- DAL @ NYG: Daniel Jones has now recorded back-to-back solid showings, and in Week 3 that actually turned into a win over the hapless browns. Meanwhile the Cowboys defense has failed to put up numbers for two weeks. But as I always say, DST scoring is about the offense, not the defense. They weren’t going to be a fantasy starter-level defense against the Saints or Ravens. But the Giants are another story, and a good chance for last year’s #1 defense to get back on track. If you drafted the Cowboys I recommend playing them this week and then dropping – they don’t have another particularly good matchup until they face the Giants again in Week 13.
- CLE @ LV: Last week Gardner Minshew II struggled enough against the formerly terrible Panthers to get benched for Aidan O’Connell mid-game. Minshew is still the starter, at least for this week, and should offer high sack potential to a powerful browns pass rush.
- HOU vs JAC: Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars got blown out on Monday Night Football by a Bills team that looks excellent on both sides of the ball. The Jags may bounce back a bit offensively, but Lawrence has maintained a healthy diet of 3-4 sacks each game so far, and that should continue against the Texans. Houston’s defense was able to capitalize on a good matchup with 7 sacks against the Bears in Week 2, and should have a similar opportunity this week.