One of the big narratives to emerge this NFL season is the death of the passing league. Two high safety shells have become the standard as NFL defenses seek to limit explosive plays, and it’s working. Through two weeks, the average NFL offense has thrown just 1.1 passing TDs and under 200 passing yards on 30.3 attempts per game. Those numbers, if they held up for the season, would be the lowest marks since the early 90s. Sack rates remain high, with teams taking sacks on 7.7% of dropbacks, which would also be the highest rate since 1992. Similarly the league is rushing for an average of 124.9 yards per game, the highest level since 1985. I expect this to regress towards normal a bit as teams shake off the rust born from a short preseason, but this is not the high-flying passing league we saw in the 2010s. Let’s dive into our fantasy football defense rankings and projections to help identify waiver wire and streaming targets for Week 3.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Streaming Defenses: Waiver Wire & Start/Sit Advice
The implications of this for fantasy football are significant. Running Back stocks have risen relative to wide receivers, and mid-tier quarterbacks are no longer a reliable source of fantasy points, as more and more touchdowns are scored on the ground. I expect fantasy defenses to be a bit less volatile than recent years, as sacks and points allowed make up a bigger share of fantasy scoring compared to the relative randomness of interceptions and defensive touchdowns.
Week 3 D/ST Fantasy Football Projections
This is another solid week for streaming, with my #1 defense rostered in just 5% of Yahoo leagues, and some other widely-available teams further down the top 10. You can find me on Twitter and Threads.
| Rank | Team | Vs. | Vs. QB | PA | Sacks | Turnovers | FPTS | Rost% |
| The Start Them With Confidence Tier | ||||||||
| 1 | TB | DEN | Bo Nix | 16.25 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 7.94 | 5% |
| 2 | CLE | NYG | Daniel Jones | 16.25 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 7.94 | 88% |
| The Still a Fine Choice Tier | ||||||||
| 3 | LAC | @PIT | Justin Fields | 18.75 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 7.37 | 74% |
| 4 | IND | CHI | Caleb Williams | 20.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 7.23 | 36% |
| 5 | GB | @TEN | Will Levis | 19.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 7.16 | 16% |
| 6 | SEA | MIA | Skylar Thompson | 18.25 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 7.05 | 41% |
| 7 | NYJ | NE | Jacoby Brissett | 15.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 6.98 | 97% |
| 8 | SF | @LAR | Matthew Stafford | 18 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 6.80 | 99% |
| 9 | LV | CAR | Andy Dalton | 17.5 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 6.82 | 8% |
| 10 | TEN | GB | Malik Willis | 17 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 6.78 | 1% |
| 11 | PIT | LAC | Justin Herbert | 16.75 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 6.77 | 95% |
| The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier | ||||||||
| 12 | NYG | @CLE | Deshaun Watson | 22.25 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 6.48 | 2% |
| 13 | CIN | WAS | Jayden Daniels | 20.25 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 6.38 | 20% |
| 14 | HOU | @MIN | Sam Darnold | 21.25 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 6.28 | 65% |
| 15 | BUF | JAC | Trevor Lawrence | 20 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5.79 | 64% |
| 16 | NE | @NYJ | Aaron Rodgers | 22 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.73 | 7% |
| 17 | MIA | @SEA | Geno Smith | 23.25 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 5.72 | 60% |
| 18 | DEN | @TB | Baker Mayfield | 23.25 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 5.59 | 19% |
| 19 | KC | @ATL | Kirk Cousins | 21.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.59 | 88% |
| 20 | CAR | @LV | Gardner Minshew II | 23 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.57 | 1% |
| 21 | MIN | HOU | C.J. Stroud | 23.75 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 5.48 | 46% |
| 22 | DET | @ARI | Kyler Murray | 24.75 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 5.37 | 21% |
| 23 | CHI | @IND | Anthony Richardson | 22 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5.34 | 54% |
| 24 | BAL | @DAL | Dak Prescott | 24 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 5.16 | 99% |
| 25 | NO | PHI | Jalen Hurts | 24 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 5.15 | 35% |
| 26 | DAL | BAL | Lamar Jackson | 25 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 5.07 | 98% |
| 27 | JAC | @BUF | Josh Allen | 25.5 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 5.03 | 17% |
| 28 | WAS | @CIN | Joe Burrow | 28.25 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 5.02 | 4% |
| 29 | LAR | SF | Brock Purdy | 25.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 4.80 | 2% |
| 30 | PHI | @NO | Derek Carr | 25.5 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.57 | 61% |
| 31 | ATL | KC | Patrick Mahomes II | 25 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4.45 | 6% |
| 32 | ARI | DET | Jared Goff | 27.75 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4.29 | 0% |
Matchups
- TB vs DEN: Sometimes teams draft quarterbacks into situations where even the best prospect has no chance. Sometimes teams draft quarterbacks that are nowhere near the talent level to be starting as a rookie. Sometimes teams pay a washed-up Russell Wilson $53 Million to ride the bench for another team. The Denver Broncos did all of those things. If there’s one good thing I can say about Bo Nix and the Broncos’ offensive line, it’s that they haven’t allowed a ton of sacks – just two in each game so far. The offensive line has played relatively well for such a bad team overall. I expect very little scoring and high interception upside from a Broncos team that will almost certainly find itself down multiple scores against the Buccaneers.
- CLE vs NYG: Daniel Jones and the New York Football Giants managed just 18 points in a loss against the Commanders, who are supposed to be one of the worst defenses in the league. For all their offensive struggles and general cursed-ness, the Browns are still a force to be reckoned with on defense, and should succeed in a matchup as good as this one. The Commanders managed to sack Jones just once last week, but he’s been a sack magnet in his career and I expect the Browns’ pass rush to get that back on track.
- LAC @ PIT: Justin Fields and the Steelers are 2-0 despite failing to reach 20 points in either of their games. In theory Russell Wilson will take over for Fields as soon as he’s healthy, but given the wins Fields might need to lose a game or two before getting demoted. This week is a good opportunity for one of those losses against Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers, who have been dominant on defense in what were admittedly two pretty good matchups against the Raiders and Panthers.
- IND vs CHI: Caleb Williams is better than the box scores would have you believe, but there’s a lot more to a football team than just the quarterback. Like so many #1 overall picks before him, Williams was drafted to start immediately on one of the worst teams in football, and is getting shredded as a result. Their offensive line was horrible last week, allowing a league-leading 7 sacks. The Colts have struggled this season in large part due to their offense’s inability to maintain possession – they are dead last in time of possession by a significant margin through two weeks. Their defense is still in the category of teams that should be able to handle a matchup this good.
- GB @ TEN: Will Levis had another disastrous late-game turnover this week with a dumb pitch/fumble in the red zone to follow up last week’s surrender cobra pick-six. In his sophomore season he has also continued his habit of taking sacks at a medium-high rate, with 7 so far through two games. This is an ineffective offense with turnover upside, and should provide Green Bay with an opportunity to keep their season alive with another win while they wait for Jordan Love to heal his sprained MCL.
- SEA vs MIA: Tua Tagovailoa suffered another scary concussion on Thursday Night Football. This is not the place to get into the decisions that lie ahead of Tua, but the short-term implications are clear: it’s Skylar Thompson time in Miami, for at least a few weeks. The Dolphins signed QB Snoop Huntley (formerly Tyler) but I expect his role is just to serve as Thompson’s backup. This seriously takes the edge off of Miami’s offense who are now a reasonable, if not top-tier, target for fantasy defenses.
- NYJ vs NE: The Jets’ defense might not be the dominant force they were last year, but they can still handle a good matchup as evidenced by their win over the Titans last week. Now they get a home game against a low-powered Patriots offense that has the honor of this week’s lowest Vegas-based points projection at 15.5. The veteran Jacoby Brissett might not offer an exciting amount of sack and turnover upside, but the lack of offensive horsepower should limit the downside for the Jets as well.
- SF @ LAR: It’s looking like this is just not the Rams’ year. Matthew Stafford as led the team to just 30 total points in two games, and is now operating with both of his favorite targets – Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp – sidelined with injuries. The 49ers showed signs of weakness against the Vikings last week, but they are still one of the premier defenses in the league and are worth starting this week for the fantasy teams that have them.
- LV vs CAR: Less than a day after signaling that Bryce Young would remain the starter, Panthers coach Dave Canales has reversed course and benched Young for Andy Dalton. Much like the Bears, the Panthers are an absolutely toxic landing spot for a promising young quarterback, and it took just a little over a season for Bryce Young to become their latest victim. Dalton is a 36-year old veteran and while I don’t expect him to be particularly good, especially on this offense, he still represents a significant downgrade to Carolina’s status as a top-tier defense target. The Raiders defense remains a viable play this week, and a good fantasy pickup considering they get the Browns and Broncos in Weeks 4 and 5.
- TEN vs GB: Malik Willis is the starter for Green Bay while Jordan Love nurses an injury. This game should be a scrappy defensive slog between two teams with low-powered offenses. While I prefer the Packer’s side for fantasy, I think both sides of this game are viable. The Titans are a great backup plan as a defense that’s available in 99% of yahoo leagues.