Fantasy football can be an extremely fun game to play. It can also be highly frustrating at times. Nothing is more annoying than needing to make a last-minute waiver-wire move because someone in your starting lineup is out for the week.
Sadly, there isn’t much you can do about it. However, I’m going to try to help.
Every week, I will have six players you can grab off the waiver wire at the last minute and throw into your lineup. Some will succeed, while others will fail. Unfortunately, that’s how the game of fantasy football is played. Let’s dive into my six last-minute waiver wire targets for Week 1.
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Last-Minute Waiver Wire Pickups & Injury Replacements
All the players in this article are rostered in under 35% of ESPN leagues.
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB) vs. Washington Commanders (32.5% Rostered)
The Buccaneers had a productive fantasy offense in 2023 despite losing Tom Brady to retirement. Baker Mayfield had a breakout season, averaging 16.1 fantasy points per game. The veteran had his second-highest fantasy points per game average while setting career-bests in passing yards (4,044), touchdowns (28), and rushing attempts (62). More importantly, Tampa Bay improved their offensive line in the offseason, re-signed Mike Evans, and added two mid-round pass-catchers during the NFL Draft, giving Mayfield a better supporting cast than last year.
It’s a new day for the Commanders after hiring Dan Quinn in the offseason. While Quinn and the free agent additions will improve the worst defense in the NFL from a year ago, fantasy players should still target Washington when picking out streaming quarterbacks in 2024. The Commanders surrendered the second-most fantasy points per game (20.1) and the most passing touchdowns (39) to quarterbacks last season. Furthermore, the team has an inexperienced secondary. Don’t be surprised if Mayfield starts the year with a three-touchdown performance.
Ray Davis (RB – BUF) vs. Arizona Cardinals (14.6% Rostered)
Many expect the Bills to have a more run-focused offense this year after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the offseason. Davis should have flex appeal in deeper leagues this week. Furthermore, he is a potential beat-the-wave-wire candidate heading into Week 1. The rookie had an impressive training camp and should have a role behind James Cook, especially in the red zone. Davis had the sixth-best PFF rushing grade among the running backs in the 2024 NFL Draft class (91.4).
Arizona surrendered the most half-point PPR fantasy points per game (25.7) and the second-most offensive touchdowns to running backs (22) last season. More importantly, Davis can be a factor in Buffalo’s passing game. He led all running backs in college football with seven receiving touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Cardinals Arizona surrendered the most receiving scores to running backs (eight) last year. Don’t be surprised if Davis has double-digit touches in his NFL debut, especially if Curtis Samuel is limited coming off the toe injury.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB – NYG) vs. Minnesota Vikings (12.1% Rostered)
Fantasy players must be aggressive on the waiver wire with the running back position this season. Therefore, Tracy is one of my favorite beat-the-wave-wire targets heading into Week 1. Yet, he is also an appealing flex option this weekend. The rookie is off the injury report after a scary ankle injury in training camp and will play against the Vikings. Devin Singletary is the starter, but Tracy is a former college wide receiver and was impressive in camp before suffering the injury.
The Giants lack offensive playmakers. However, Tracy should quickly become a part of the passing attack in Week 1. Daniel Jones was pressured on 44.8% of his dropbacks last year. Meanwhile, Minnesota pressured the opposing quarterback on 30.8% of their dropbacks. The opposing quarterback targeted his check-down option on 12% of those attempts and someone out of the backfield on 16.5% of those attempts (per Fantasy Points Data). Expect Jones to be under pressure for most of the game, leading to significant targets for Tracy out of the backfield.
Adonai Mitchell (WR – IND) vs. Houston Texans (34.3% Rostered)
While the Colts won’t have an elite passing offense this season, Anthony Richardson can support multiple fantasy-relevant pass catchers. Many had high hopes for Josh Downs before he suffered a high ankle sprain in training camp. Unfortunately, he won’t play in Week 1, giving Mitchell a chance to steal the No. 2 wide receiver role. The former Texas star has had an impressive training camp, especially after Downs suffered the ankle injury. Furthermore, Mitchell has been successful at running routes from out wide and in the slot.
Meanwhile, the rookie has an appealing NFL debut matchup. DraftKings has the over/under for this game at 48.5 points, one of the higher totals in Week 1. More importantly, the Texans surrendered 160.4 receiving yards and 26.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2023. Furthermore, teams took deep shots against Houston. According to Fantasy Points Data, the Texans had the fourth-highest deep throw attempt rate against them in the NFL (13.6%). Expect Richardson to take a few downfield shots to Mitchell in this game.
Greg Dortch (WR – ARI) vs. Buffalo Bills (1.6% Rostered)
Fantasy players should be excited about the Arizona offense this season, as Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride should both be fantasy stars. However, Dortch was one of my favorite late-round draft targets at the wide receiver position. Zay Jones will miss the first five games with a suspension, creating more opportunities for the veteran receiver. More importantly, Dortch has been productive when given the chance. He averaged 11 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in the four contests with more than four targets last year.
Furthermore, Dortch shined when Rondale Moore missed half the 2022 season, averaging 10.6 fantasy points per game in the eight contests he played at least 50% of the snaps. Meanwhile, the Bills had the third-highest slot target rate in the NFL last season at 35.5% (per Fantasy Points Data). Dortch saw a 19% target per route run rate when lined up in the slot in 2023. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray targeted a slot receiver on 29.5% of his pass attempts last year. Dortch could finish as a WR3 in Week 1.
Juwan Johnson (TE – NO) vs. Carolina Panthers (14.9% Rostered)
While many don’t have high hopes for the Saints offense, Johnson will be a popular streaming option this season. The veteran suffered a foot injury in the offseason that required surgery. However, he is 100% healthy and ready to play. Johnson could finish second on the team in targets behind Chris Olave this year. More importantly, he was the TE5, averaging 4.7 receptions on seven targets for 58.7 receiving yards, one touchdown, and 14.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game during last season’s fantasy football playoffs.
The Panthers weren’t an ideal team to stream pass catchers against in 2023. Carolina’s offense was awful, and their run defense struggled, leading to their opponents having a run-heavy game script. However, that won’t be the case this season. Furthermore, they lost several critical players on defense, including Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Chinn. According to Fantasy Points Data, Johnson ran most of his route from the slot last season (60.1%). He should draw a favorable matchup against Troy Hill (66.9 PFF coverage grade in 2023), giving him low-end TE1 appeal.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.