With the popularity and the legalization of sports betting increasing year after year, the amount of information also increases.
When it comes to fantasy football, many people forget to use odds and lines as part of their research. Think about it: How often have you seen games land on a game’s exact spread or total? Or how many times have you bet player props and a hit lands within one point or one yard of the closing number? It’s because sportsbooks must be highly accurate or out of business. Why not use those lines and odds as part of your fantasy football decisions?
Below, we will walk you through a few ways to use a sportsbook’s odds and lines to help you make smarter fantasy football decisions.
- Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
How To Use Vegas Odds for Fantasy Football
Game Spread
The most common way to bet on an NFL game is on the spread. But when it comes to fantasy football, using the spread may not impact our decisions; rather, it will help give an idea of what the game script may look like.
Let’s use this week’s Patriots-Bengals game as an example. Right now, the Bengals are heavy favorites against the Patriots, as most sportsbooks have this line as a 9-point spread. It’s evident Joe Burrow and the Bengals will have control most of this game, and it’s most likely they will have a big lead throughout most of this game.
If that game script proves to be true, Cincinnati’s offense will likely perform well through the first half of the game, then rely on the run game to control the clock and eventually put the game away in the second half. A game script like this may benefit Bengals running backs Chase Brown and Zack Moss more so than receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.
On the flip side, assuming the Patriots are playing from behind most of the game, this will provide more passing opportunities for the offense, benefiting the likes of Jacoby Brissett, Antonio Gibson and DeMario Douglas, as they can accumulate more fantasy points later in the game or in garbage time.
Game Totals and Team Totals
Game totals and team totals are another valuable piece of information as they show the expected points to be scored in a given game. The higher the game total, the more points are expected to be scored, meaning higher fantasy scores.
Using Week 1 as an example, say you are still determining whether or not to start Cooper Kupp or Davante Adams in your lineup. Both are their teams’ No. 1 receivers and have a similar matchup against opposing secondaries. We can look at their respective game totals to see who will be better off.
The Rams and Lions have a total of 51 with a spread of 3.5 points inside a dome, implying this should be a highly competitive, high-scoring game.
Meanwhile, the Raiders and Chargers game has a total of 40.5 points, 10.5 lower than the Rams-Lions game. With the spread at three points, you can assume this may be a low-scoring defensive battle between two division rivals.
Looking at the totals, Kupp seems to be the better option in Week 1.
You may also want to look at the individual team totals as well.
For example, Vegas has the Bengals-Patriots game total set at 40.5, but Cincinnati is an 8.5-point favorite, meaning their team total is 24.5, while the Patriots’ team total is 15.5.
Despite a low total, the Bengals’ team total is higher than the Rams’ team total (23.5) despite their game total being set at 51. While the totals for the whole game are drastically different, these two offenses are expected to perform similarly.
The game total may not always tell the full story, so it’s also important to dig a little deeper and examine the team totals.
Remember, this is not to be used as the end-all-be-all but as another resource to help you make your lineup decisions.
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