The running back position has always carried the most risk in fantasy. The likelihood of injury is highest and thus, these players tend to miss the most time. Fantasy managers have all suffered the agony of losing one of their early-drafted RBs to a season-ending injury.
This inherent risk has further increased over the years. With ambiguous backfields across the NFL, it’s become increasingly hard for fantasy managers to gauge volume distributions and assess average draft position (ADP) data. There simply aren’t as many RBs with clearly defined roles in their respective offenses.
For this reason, it’s key for fantasy managers to offset some of this risk by drafting high-floor RBs in the subsequent rounds of drafts. While these players may not have league-winning upside, they offer steady and reliable production. Once injuries and unforeseen issues inevitably start to pile up, these high-floor assets will prove to be very valuable.
- 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
High-Floor Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (RB – NO)
Alvin Kamara is far from an exciting draft selection. Historically speaking, veteran RBs with declining efficiency have been unwise bets to make in fantasy. However, Kamara’s undeniable path to volume provides a steady baseline of production. His floor is higher than most alternative options in the fourth and fifth rounds of drafts.
This Saints offense leaned heavily on Kamara’s ability as a receiver in 2023. In an otherwise lackluster group of pass-catchers, Kamara quickly emerged as Derek Carr‘s favorite target. To Kamara’s credit, he’s continued to be a great contributor through the air despite the tread on his tires. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), the veteran ranked fifth in receiving grade, third in yards per route run and second in receptions among RBs with at least 30 targets in 2023.
The Saints failed to address the WR position throughout the offseason. The departure of Michael Thomas and a lingering foot issue for Rashid Shaheed would suggest Kamara will continue to see an impressive target share in 2024.
The running game is where Kamara has shown a steep decline in efficiency as of late. Per PFF, his 2.51 yards after contact per carry and 34.5 elusive rating were both career lows. His struggles were a contributing factor to the Saints’ disappointing offensive output in 2023. Regardless, the Saints’ don’t have the RB depth to truly challenge Kamara’s volume. Jamaal Williams‘ 2023 PFF run grade of 60.3 was the worst of his career. On the other hand, Kendre Miller has struggled to make an impact since being drafted by the Saints in 2023.
#Saints HC Dennis Allen on Kendre Miller:
“All I can go off of is what I’ve been able to evaluate and, quite frankly, since we drafted him, there hasn’t been a whole lot of new information other than what I saw on the college tape, because he hasn’t been available.”
“He’s… pic.twitter.com/tSRDrAh7nD
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) August 21, 2024
Kamara remains a focal point in both facets of the Saints’ offense. This sheer amount of volume will offset any inefficiencies he may experience in 2024, giving him a rock-solid floor in fantasy football at his RB17 fantasy ADP.
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
Above all else, Najee Harris has shown the ability to withstand a heavy workload throughout his career. He’s earned a minimum of 255 carries in three consecutive seasons as the Steelers’ bell-cow back. All signs point toward him having yet another workhorse role in 2024.
The arrival of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is indicative of the Steelers’ desire to run the ball at a high rate. As head coach of the Atlanta Falcons in 2023, Arthur Smith’s team ran the ball at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. This was despite boasting an impressive group of pass-catching weapons, headlined by Drake London and Kyle Pitts.
Smith now finds himself in Pittsburgh, where the roster construction is conducive to a run-heavy offensive scheme. The team lacks pass-catchers of note other than George Pickens. What’s more, the QB position remains ambiguous this late into the off-season. Both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson have had their fair share of struggles this preseason. Regardless of which QB earns the starting nod, the Steelers’ offensive strength figures to be the running game.
Najee can make the most of any opportunity presented to him in 2024. Among 49 RBs with at least 100 carries in 2023, he ranked 14th in elusive rating, 15th in yards after contact per attempt and eighth in missed tackles forced. In Arthur Smith’s effective running scheme, which helped produce some of Derrick Henry‘s most electric seasons in Tennessee, Harris will be very effective.
Harris’ stranglehold on the goal-line role also contributes to his high floor. He’s scored a minimum of seven touchdowns in three consecutive seasons. In 2024, he had six more carries than Jaylen Warren from within the 5-yard line. The latter continues to deal with a lingering hamstring injury which, if not properly healed, may lend itself to an even greater workload for Najee Harris.
Devin Singletary (RB – NYG)
Heading into the 2023 season, the common sentiment amongst the fantasy football community was that Devin Singletary’s days as a starting RB were numbered. The veteran seemed poised to play a secondary role in the Houston Texans’ backfield. However, he surprised many and earned the starting role as the season progressed. From Week 10 onward, he produced as the RB9 in half-PPR formats. He showed the ability to withstand a workhorse role in a high-powered offense, something he hadn’t managed during his tenure in Buffalo.
He’s now slated to be the bell-cow RB for the New York Giants. Any doubts about his role were dismissed during the team’s second preseason game, during which Singletary earned the vast majority of snaps with the starting offense. Thus far, Singletary appears to be an ideal fit for Brian Daboll’s running scheme.
One of my favorite individual plays by a #Giants offensive player was from Devin Singletary.
This run does not go for the 10 yards it went for in 2023.
That's not a knock on Barkley either. This run doesn't go for 10 yards with most RBs.
Singletary is a very nuanced runner. pic.twitter.com/85SJLVrlVx— Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) August 18, 2024
Throughout his five-year career, Singletary has been an efficient rusher on a carry-to-carry basis. Per PFF, he’s averaged 2.99 yards after contact per attempt and 4.6 yards per carry. He’s accumulated a minimum of 800 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns in each of the three previous seasons. In an expanded role, Singletary is likely to have a career year.
The main concern regarding Singletary’s fantasy outlook is the porous Giants offense. The team struggled mightily throughout the 2023 season, during which they scored the third-fewest points in the NFL. These struggles have carried over to the 2024 preseason as they’ve earned the fourth-lowest PFF offensive grade for their efforts this summer.
Singletary’s volume will nevertheless propel him towards a baseline level of fantasy production. Even if the Giants’ offensive struggles continue, he’ll be well worth the investment as the RB28 in ADP. After all, we saw the likes of Chuba Hubbard and Rhamondre Stevenson prove to be viable fantasy assets in sub-par offenses in 2023.
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