After two strong weeks to kick off the 2024 regular season, including six 20-plus point performances, fantasy kicking scoring cooled off dramatically in Week 3. Only six players managed to top double figures, led by Wil Lutz of the Broncos, who scored 16 points in a surprising lopsided road win over the Bucs.
There were six players rostered in over 90% of Yahoo leagues entering Week 3 play, and only two of them, Harrison Butker and Brandon Aubrey, topped 10 fantasy points, while Jake Elliott, Justin Tucker, and Ka’imi Fairbairn combined to score five fantasy points.
Twelve kicks were missed on the day, with the most costly coming off the leg of second-year kicker Jake Moody, who would have given the 49ers a two-score lead late and a likely win over the host Rams.
Fantasy Football Week 4 Kicker Rankings
Week 3 strong performances from widely-available kickers
Wil Lutz (DEN): @ Tampa Bay – 0% roster percentage on Yahoo
Lutz made all four of his attempts on Sunday as the Broncos shocked the Buccaneers 26-7 in Tampa on Sunday. The 16 points scored was his second game of double-digit points this season.
Eddy Pineiro (CAR): @ Las Vegas – 0% roster percentage on Yahoo
Literally, almost nobody started Pineiro against the Raiders this past week, and for a good reason. Pineiro had just eight combined fantasy points in his first two games, and it was unclear how much the move to Andy Dalton would ignite the offense. Dalton came out on fire, and the Panthers won their first game of the year.
Week 3 Dud Performances from heavily-owned kickers
Ka’imi Fairbairn (HOU): @ Minnesota – 93% roster percentage on Yahoo
Fairbairn missed a long field goal attempt that would have salvaged his day in what was an otherwise forgetful day for the Texans. The Viking’s defense is legit, and teams facing the Brian Flores-led defense will be in store for a low-scoring game. I am not moving on from Fairbairn, and he is still a top-5 kicker for me this season.
Kicker Rankings:
| Rank | ECR | Name | TEAM | Opponent | Spread | O/U | OPP RZ D | RZ EFF* | OFF RNK | K Score** | Weather |
| 1 | 1 | Brandon Aubrey | DAL | at NYG | -4.5 | 44 | 7 | 17 | 9 | 29 | 74F, Rain, Light Wind |
| 2 | 3 | Harrison Butker | KC | at LAC | -8 | 40 | 2 | 10 | 14 | 18 | Dome |
| 3 | 5 | Jake Moody | SF | vs. NE | -10.5 | 39 | 16 | 17 | 3 | 26 | 73F, Light Wind |
| 4 | 6 | Justin Tucker | BAL | vs. BUF | -2 | 46 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 28 | 70F, 21% Rain, Light Wind |
| 5 | 14 | Jake Elliott | PHI | at TB | -2.5 | 44.5 | 14 | 8 | 2 | 22 | 53F, Light Wind |
| 6 | 8 | Younghoe Koo | ATL | vs. NO | -2 | 42 | 3 | 10 | 20 | 31 | Dome |
| 7 | 9 | Blake Grupe | NO | at ATL | 2 | 42 | 11 | 29 | 9 | 51 | Dome |
| 8 | 2 | Ka’imi Fairbairn | HOU | vs. JAC | -6 | 45.5 | 28 | 27 | 11 | 60 | Dome |
| 9 | 20 | Brayden Narveson | GB | vs. MIN | -2.5 | 44 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 71F, 26% Rain, Light Wind |
| 10 | 16 | Jake Bates | DET | vs. SEA | -4 | 46 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 10 | Dome |
| 11 | 7 | Matt Prater | ARI | vs. WAS | -3 | 51 | 26 | 24 | 7 | 54 | Dome |
| 12 | 4 | Evan McPherson | CIN | at CAR | -4.5 | 47.5 | 31 | 17 | 15 | 59 | 74F, 21% of Rain, Light Wind |
| 13 | 12 | Jason Myers | SEA | at DET | 4 | 46 | 15 | 17 | 8 | 44 | Dome |
| 14 | 10 | Chase McLaughlin | TB | vs. PHI | 3 | 44.5 | 4 | 18 | 26 | 51 | 53F, Light Wind |
| 15 | 11 | Chris Boswell | PIT | at IND | -2 | 40 | 26 | 1 | 24 | 49 | Dome |
| 16 | 13 | Tyler Bass | BUF | at BAL | 2 | 46 | 21 | 30 | 13 | 66 | 70F, 21% Rain, Light Wind |
| 17 | 24 | Jason Sanders | MIA | vs. TEN | 0 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 16 | 24 | 83F, Light Wind |
| 18 | 15 | Dustin Hopkins | CLE | at LV | 0 | 37 | 20 | 31 | 31 | 82 | Dome |
| 19 | 17 | Cairo Santos | CHI | vs. LAR | -3 | 41 | 24 | 22 | 30 | 73 | 71F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 20 | 18 | Daniel Carlson | LV | vs. CLE | 0 | 37 | 16 | 27 | 21 | 64 | Dome |
| 21 | 23 | Wil Lutz | DEN | at NYJ | 7.5 | 38.5 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 37 | 71F, 26% Rain, Light Wind |
| 22 | 19 | Cameron Dicker | LAC | vs. KC | 8 | 40 | 13 | 8 | 25 | 54 | Dome |
| 23 | 21 | Will Reichard | MIN | at GB | 2.5 | 44 | 21 | 25 | 12 | 61 | 71F, 26% Rain, Light Wind |
| 24 | 22 | Greg Zuerlein | NYJ | vs. DEN | -7.5 | 38.5 | 12 | 29 | 18 | 52 | 71F, Light Rain |
| 25 | 25 | Austin Seibert | WAS | at ARI | 3 | 51 | 24 | 17 | 6 | 50 | Dome |
| 26 | 29 | Matt Gay | IND | vs. PIT | 2 | 40 | 1 | 23 | 17 | 43 | Dome |
| 27 | 30 | Nick Folk | TEN | at MIA | 0 | 37 | 30 | 17 | 29 | 76 | Dome |
| 28 | 31 | Joshua Karty | LAR | at CHI | 3 | 41 | 19 | 11 | 19 | 52 | 71F, 10 MPH Wind |
| 29 | 26 | Eddy Pineiro | CAR | vs. CIN | 4.5 | 47.5 | 16 | 19 | 28 | 68 | 74F, 21% of Rain, Light Wind |
| 30 | 32 | Joey Slye | NE | at SF | 10 | 39 | 21 | 4 | 32 | 67 | 73F, Light Wind |
| 31 | 27 | Cam Little | JAC | at HOU | 6 | 45.5 | 29 | 5 | 27 | 67 | Dome |
| 32 | 28 | Greg Joseph | NYG | vs. DAL | 4.5 | 44 | 32 | 22 | 22 | 81 | 74F, Rain, Light Wind |
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker’s offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 10th in red zone efficiency; therefore, Justin Tucker has a RZ EFF score of 22. The lower the number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player’s opponent’s red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker’s team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Week 4 Kicker Targets
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play in Week 4.
Brayden Narveson (GB): vs. Minnesota – 2% roster percentage on Yahoo
With another historically low K Score and a home matchup against a stout Vikings defense, I am staying in the fire with Narveson this week. I would prefer to have Jordan Love back, but Willis showed enough mobility and poise to keep the ball moving and make Narveson much better play than his 20th overall rank for ECR.
Jake Elliott (PHI): @ Tampa Bay – 91% roster percentage on Yahoo
It may take some intestinal fortitude to play Elliott again this week after he burned fantasy owners last week with one point against the Saints. While I understand managers having some worries, his K Score of 22 indicates a bounce-back week for the veteran kicker.
Prediction Review
Each week, I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Brayden Narveson (GB) : @ Tennessee – 2% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 14
My Rank: 24
Week 3 Finish: T2
I mentioned last week in my prediction that Narveson boasted the top K Score of the year so far and that he could be in line for a top 12 performance. Instead of a top 12, he came through tied for second, giving those 2% of Yahoo managers a boost in their matchup.
Jake Bates (DET): vs. TB – 16% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 14
My Rank: 11
Week 3 Finish: Kicker T24
As good as my pick for Narveson was, the pick of Bates turned out to be equally as bad. The rookie did not have a field goal attempt (Dan Campbell should have his own negative quotient in the K Score forma), he also missed an extra point. Bates has another shockingly good K Score this week, but I need to see it on the field before I recommend playing him.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Blake Grupe (NO): vs. Philadelphia – 6% roster percentage on Yahoo
I am sticking with Groupe as my waiver wire add this week based on a great matchup against the Falcons. Atlanta gives up the most points to opposing kickers and this could be a big game for Groupe and his counterpart, Younghoe Koo.
Other players to consider:
Brayden Narveson (GB) @ Tennessee: 2% roster percentage on Yahoo
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