Fantasy Football Week 1 Rankings, Grades & Start/Sit Advice (2024)

Welcome to Week 1, friends. As always, we’re here to provide you with some fantasy football Quick Grades (or Start/Sit Grades, if you prefer) for the week.

We tapped into our consensus projections and rankings and Derek Brown’s weekly Primer to generate this week’s Quick Grades. See below for the results and accompanying notes.

** Injury or playing time concerns. Check status Sunday morning.

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Week 1 Quarterback Start/Sit Grades

Caleb Williams (QB)

Williams flashed his big-time upside in the preseason. He had a 13% big-time throw rate and 8.5 yards per attempt while also having some rookie growing pains (61.1% adjusted completion rate). We all know Williams was a high-end prospect who could hit the ground running immediately in his rookie season as a talented receiving depth chart flanks him. The Tennessee pass defense allowed the ninth-highest yards per attempt and CPOE and the seventh-highest adjusted completion rate last year, but that could change this year. This offseason upgrading the secondary was of prime importance with the additions of Quandre Diggs, Chidobe Awuzie, and L’Jarius Snead. Williams could return QB1 production in Week 1, but it’s more reasonable to expect a QB2 stat line.

Will Levis (QB)

Levis was middling at best last year after taking over the starting job. In Weeks 8-15, he averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game, which over the course of a full season would have placed him as the QB30 in fantasy. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 21st in yards per attempt, 23rd in CPOE, and 35th in fantasy points per dropback. Nothing about his starting tenure was impressive outside of his Week 8 game against the Falcons. Unfortunately, he begins the season with a stout matchup against a Bears’ pass defense that was among the best in the league to close the 2023 season. After Week 11, Chicago allowed the 11th-lowest yards per attempt and the third-lowest passer rating and adjusted completion rate. Levis is better off on your benches this week unless you’re desperate in a Superflex format.

Trevor Lawrence (QB)

Lawrence was battered and bruised for most of last season. He dealt with a sprained MCL, ankle sprain, concussion, and bruised right shoulder. He still willed his way to a QB13 finish in fantasy points per game while ranking 14th in CPOE and seventh in highly accurate throw rate. Lawrence should light up the Dolphins’ secondary in Week 1. Last year, Miami allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the seventh-most passing touchdowns, and the 10th-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Miami’s issues with defending play-action last year, if still present, could be their undoing. Last year, the Dolphins allowed the ninth-highest passer rating and the fifth-most passing touchdowns to play-action passing. Lawrence was 10th in play-action dropbacks and sixth in big-time throw rate on play-action passes.

Tua Tagovailoa (QB)

Last year, Tagovailoa was the QB16 in fantasy points per game, even though he was the NFL leader in passing yards and fifth in passing touchdowns. His 2023 season was a rollercoaster where he surpassed 308 passing yards five times, but he also didn’t manage more than 250 passing yards in eight outings. Tagovailoa was quite efficient with his dropbacks, ranking third in yards per attempt, sixth in CPOE, and third in highly accurate throw rate. Tagovailoa should open the year flirting with QB1 numbers against a pass defense that allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns and passing yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Derek Carr (QB)

Carr might not be the sexiest name in fantasy, but he was amazing down the stretch last season. In Weeks 12-18 last year, he was the QB15 in fantasy points per game, but that doesn’t do justice to how good he was. Among 33 qualifying quarterbacks in that span, he was 11th in yards per attempt, third in passing touchdowns, second in CPOE, and eighth in fantasy points per dropback. He’s not a bad QB2/streaming option this season, but I wouldn’t look to plug him into lineups in Week 1. Carr draws a Carolina pass defense that last year allowed the sixth-lowest yards per attempt, the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Bryce Young (QB)

There are not many players for fantasy that I feel like “I need to see” before I’m willing to put them into a lineup, but Young is one of them. Last year was BAD in every sense of the word. Young was the QB29 in fantasy points per game, with only two QB1 outings for the year. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he was 44th in yards per attempt, 33rd in CPOE, and 44th in fantasy points per dropback. The Saints are no pushover pass defense, either. Last season, New Orleans allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the ninth-lowest yards per attempt, and the fourth-lowest CPOE. Even in Superflex, I’m willing to play a wide receiver or running back over Young.

Bo Nix (QB)

During his final collegiate season, Nix was the on-paper model of efficiency, ranking top five in passing grade, adjusted completion rate, and yards per attempt. He was similarly efficient in the preseason. Among 53 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked fifth in passing grade, eighth in adjusted completion rate, and 11th in yards per attempt. Nix is a fine QB2 this week, facing a pass defense that kept quarterbacks in check last year, allowing the 11th-lowest CPOE, the 10th-fewest passing touchdowns, and sitting at 15th in fantasy points per game.

Gardner Minshew II (QB)

After taking over as the Colts starting quarterback last season, Minshew was the QB26 in fantasy points per game. He was pedestrian in every metric I care about regarding quarterback play. Among 45 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranked 28th in yards per attempt, 34th in CPOE, 31st in fantasy points per dropback, and 37th in catchable target rate. The on-paper matchup looks tasty, but take it with a grain of salt with a new coaching staff in place and some new personnel in the secondary. Last year, the Chargers allowed the fifth-highest yards per attempt, the 11th-highest adjusted completion rate, and the seventh-highest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Minshew, at best, is a mid-QB2.

Dak Prescott (QB)

Last year, Prescott finished as the QB4 in fantasy points per game, having arguably the best season of his NFL career. Prescott really started balling out after Week 5, and Dallas leaned into the passing game. In Weeks 6-18, Prescott was the QB1 in fantasy points per game while ranking fifth in adjusted completion rate, first in CPOE, and fifth in fantasy points per dropback. Prescott will have his work cut out for him in Week 1 against a Browns’ secondary that allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the second-lowest yards per attempt and passer rating last year.

Jayden Daniels (QB)

The Daniels’ show begins in Week 1. We know the rushing upside he possesses, but let’s talk about his passing upside. During his final season at LSU, Daniels ranked in the top six in passing grade, adjusted completion rate, yards per attempt, and big-time throw rate. Daniels can carve up this secondary. Last year, Tampa Bay allowed the third-highest passing yards per game, the eighth-highest yards per attempt, and the 12th-most passing touchdowns (tied). The Bucs ranked 21st in pressure rate last year. If that holds up in Week 1, Daniels should have time in the pocket to burn them deep. Last season, Tampa Bay allowed the second-most passing touchdowns and the eighth-highest deep completion rate. If you drafted Daniels, enjoy the show.

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Week 1 Wide Receiver Start/Sit Grades

Terry McLaurin (WR)

McLaurin is set to bounce back this year if Daniels is the passer that I think he is. Last year, he finished as the WR34 in fantasy points per game, but his WR21 rank in expected fantasy points per game is closer to what I hope we get in 2024. Last season, he still led the team with a 20.4% target share, a 34.7% air-yard share, 1.64 YPRR, and a 25.4% first-read share. Sam Howell was a crushing blow of inefficiency, though ranking 21st in CPOE and 25th in clean pocket passer rating. If Daniels has time in the pocket in Week 1, McLaurin should have a boom game. Last year, Tampa Bay utilized single-high on 53.4% of their defensive snaps. Last year, against single-high, McLaurin had 1.96 YPRR and a 25.8% first-read share. McLaurin will line up against Jamel Dean (67.5% catch rate and 116.0 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (60.2% catch rate and 91.5 passer rating) for most of the day. Last season, the Bucs allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wide receivers.

Chris Godwin (WR)

Godwin stumbled out of the gate last year, which led to his WR34 finish in fantasy points per game, but I think we need to focus more on how he ended the season. After Week 13, he turned up the heat, closing the season as the WR16 in fantasy points per game with a 28.7% target share, 83.6 receiving yards per game, 2.79 yards per route run, and 0.133 first downs per route run. That scorching hot conclusion to last year also coincided with his move back to the slot more (36.1% vs. 44%). Godwin should be the team’s starting slot this year, which will benefit him. Dan Quinn likely utilizes single-high at a high rate this year after encompassing 64.9% and 57.1% of his defensive snaps over the last two years with Dallas. Last year in Weeks 14-18, against single high, Godwin led the team with 2.45 YPRR and 0.125 FD/RR and was second behind only Mike Evans in target share (19.1%) and first-read share (21.1%). Godwin will match up with rookie Mike Sainristill for most of Week 1. The floor and ceiling are high for Godwin to open this season.

Luke McCaffrey (WR)

Well, well, well. Look at that. McCaffrey is now projected to be a starter in two wide receiver sets for Washington. McCaffrey has been a crush of mine since I watched him at the Senior Bowl in Mobile (shout out to Jim Nagy). McCaffrey could hit the ground running in Week 1 against a team that utilized zone coverage on 73.9% of their defensive snaps last year. Last year against zone among 111 qualifying FBS wide receivers, he ranked sixth in receiving grade and 28th in YPRR against zone. If McCaffrey is lining up on the perimeter for most of the game, he’ll see Jamel Dean (67.5% catch rate and 116.0 passer rating) and Zyon McCollum (60.2% catch rate and 91.5 passer rating) in coverage. McCaffrey is a fine deep-league flex.

Jalen McMillan (WR)

I wasn’t high on McMillan as a prospect, but he played well in the preseason. He has a glorious matchup in Week 1. This preseason, he had a 37.5% TPRR while ranking 13th in receiving grade and 11th in YPRR. The entire Washington secondary was in shambles last year, and it doesn’t look much better entering Week 1. McMillan will see Benjamin St. Juste (68% catch rate and 102.9 passer rating) and Michael Davis (65.5% catch rate and 119.8 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day. Washington allowed the most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to wide receivers last year.

Jameson Williams (WR)

We’ll see if Jameson Williams can evolve into a high-end target earner, but last year’s metrics don’t point to that happening. Among 93 qualifying receivers last season, Williams was 62nd in target per route run rate, 55th in yards per route run, and 70th in first downs per route run. Last year, he only managed to surpass 60% of the snaps in four games, with only three games of at least six or more targets. He operated as a field stretcher, which could come in handy against the Rams. Last year, he was ninth in aDOT and now faces a Rams pass defense that allowed the third-most deep passing touchdowns and the fifth-most deep passing yards last year. Williams will see Cobie Durant (65.2% catch rate and 101.1 passer rating) and Tre’Davious White (60% catch rate and 80.6 passer rating) in coverage for most of the game.

Cooper Kupp (WR)

Which version of Kupp do we get this year? That has been a heated offseason debate. Did he clearly take a step back, or did injuries nag at him all year, affecting his performance? Last year, he dealt with an ankle sprain and hamstring issues. In 12 games with him and Puka Nacua active, Kupp still commanded a 23.4% target share, produced 2.08 yards per route run, and was the WR23 in fantasy points per game. Last year, Detroit utilized single-high on 54.3% of their defensive snaps. Against single-high, Kupp led the team with a 27.4% target share and a 33.3% first-read share. He was second to only Puka Nacua in YPRR (2.47) and FD/RR (0.107). Kupp will run about 61% of his routes against Amik Robertson (62.5% catch rate and 85.7 passer rating). Kupp could lead the way for the passing attack in Week 1.

Drake London (WR)

2024 is liftoff time for London. Last year, London’s numbers were passable but not amazing, as quarterback play held him in check. The Falcons’ quarterbacks posted the fourth-lowest adjusted completion rate and the third-lowest catchable target rate. London still posted 1.98 YPRR (32nd) while ranking 27th in FD/RR and top 25 in first read share (20th) and target share (25th). I will say immediately that I don’t know if that happens in Week 1. Last year, the Steelers utilized single-high at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL (62.8%). London led the team in target share (18.6%, tied) and with a 24% first-read share against single-high. The worry I have with London for Week 1 is that he could draw shadow coverage from Joey Porter Jr. (47.4% catch rate and 69.6 passer rating). Porter Jr. followed receivers on at least 58.8% of their routes last year eight times. In that sample, he held five receivers under 40 receiving yards in his primary coverage. If London isn’t shadowed, then he’ll see equal amounts of Porter Jr. and Donte Jackson (66.2% catch rate and 111.1 passer rating).

George Pickens (WR)

Pickens should lead the way for Pittsburgh’s aerial attack this season. We got a small snippet of what that might look like last year when Dionate Johnson missed time with an injury. In Weeks 2-5 without Johnson, his target share climbed to 27.1%, his air-yard share stood at a whopping 50.1%, he produced 3.0 yards per route run, and he was the WR16 in fantasy points per game. In those four games, he saw three end zone targets and had a ridiculous 38.4% first-read share. Those market share numbers could all be repeated in 2024. We’ll see about the efficiency numbers that Pittsburgh’s quarterback play could vastly impact. With Raheem Morris at the controls for the Falcons’ defense, we should expect a heavy dose of Cover 3 and Cover 4. Over the last two years, Morris has utilized these two coverages on 57.9-59.5% of defensive snaps. Last year against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Pickens had a 21.5% target share, 2.87 yards per route run, and 0.105 first downs per route run. All of these are stellar marks. Pickens will run about 83% of his routes against A.J. Terrell (57.9% catch rate and 95.7 passer rating) and Mike Hughes (61.9% catch rate and 94.3 passer rating).

Darnell Mooney (WR)

Mooney is coming off a horrific season where he was the WR86 in fantasy. In 15 games played last year, he only managed two weekly finishes inside the top 36 wide receivers. Among 81 qualifying receivers, he ranked 70th in target share and 74th in yards per route run and first downs per route run. Last season, the Steelers had the fourth-highest single-high rate in the NFL (62.8%). Mooney was passable but not electric against single high in 2023 with a 15% target share, 1.21 yards per route run, and a 20.4% first-read share. Mooney will see Donte Jackson (66.2% catch rate and 111.1 passer rating) and Joey Porter Jr. (47.4% catch rate and 69.6 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day.

Calvin Ridley (WR)

We can’t dance around this fact. Ridley was a disappointment last year in Fantasy Football, but hey, it’s a new season and a chance for Ridley to reenter Fantasy GMs’ good graces. He was the WR27 in fantasy points per game while also ranking as the WR14 in expected fantasy points per game. His market share numbers were passable (21.6% target share, 38% air-yard share), but his per-route efficiency was horrendous. Among 81 qualifying wide receivers, he was 44th in yards per route run and 42nd in first downs per route run. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). While they changed defensive coordinators this offseason, it’s tough to see them change the model much this season. Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4, Ridley had a 25% target per route run rate (TPRR), 2.20 yards per route run (YPRR), and 0.100 first downs per route run (FD/RR). Ridley will see Tyrique Stevenson (65.5% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (50% catch rate and 33.3 passer rating) in coverage for most of the day.

DeAndre Hopkins (WR)

Hopkins is dealing with a knee injury, but he’s expected to play in Week 1, according to the latest reports I’ve read. He practiced on a limited basis all week and has been listed as questionable. Last year, he was the WR29 in fantasy points per game. With Will Levis under center last year (Weeks 8-15), he saw a 26.9% target share, a 46.1% air-yard share, and produced 2.40 yards per route run as the WR18 in fantasy points per game. Those market share numbers will drop some with Calvin Ridley in town. Hopkins was the only main show in town last season. Last season, Chicago, in Weeks 11-18, was playing lights-out defense, and a large part of this was their move towards heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 usage (56.7%). While they changed defensive coordinators this offseason, it’s tough to see them change the model much this season. Last year, against Cover 3 and Cover 4 with Levis under center, Hopkins had a 29.8% target share, 3.0 YPRR, a 37.6% first-read share, and 0.102 FD/RR. Hopkins will run about 79% of his routes against Tyrique Stevenson (65.5% catch rate and 100.4 passer rating) and Jaylon Johnson (50% catch rate and 33.3 passer rating)

DJ Moore (WR)

New year. New quarterback. New wide receivers are flanking Moore. Tons of change for the Chicago passing attack this offseason, but Moore should still be considered the favorite to lead the way for Windy City’s aerial attack. Last season, he was the WR9 in fantasy points per game while setting new career highs in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and fantasy points per game. He also shined on a per-route basis, ranking 13th in yards per route run and 12th in first downs per route run. Moore faces a pass defense with new coordinator Dennard Wilson calling the shots. Last year, Wilson was with Baltimore as their defensive backs’ coach. Baltimore utilized two-high coverage on 53.3% of their snaps (eighth-highest rate), which lines up well with Tennessee (53.6% last year, seventh-highest rate). Last year against two high, Moore had a 24.6% target share, a 46% air-yard share, 1.90 YPRR, and a 38% first-read share. With the additions of Rome Odunze and Keenan Allen, those market share numbers will undoubtedly come back down to earth some. His YPRR mark against two-high was ranked 34th out of 97 qualifying wide receivers last year, so he was good but not elite. Moore will run about 78% of his routes against Chidobe Awuzie (67.9% catch rate and 112.8 passer rating) and L’Jarius Snead (52.5% catch rate and 66.6 passer rating).

Keenan Allen (WR)

Allen enters a new offensive system while attempting to build rapport with his rookie quarterback. He could become a trusted weapon for Caleb Williams immediately. Last year, he was WR3 in fantasy points per game, second in target share (30.7%), and 11th in yards per route run and first downs per route run. The target share will come down. The question is how much in 2024. Allen could lead the way against Tennessee in Week 1, as his numbers last year remained stellar against two-high. New defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson was the defensive backs coach for Baltimore last year. Last season, Baltimore utilized two-high coverage on 53.3% of their snaps (eighth-highest rate), which lines up well with Tennessee (53.6% last year, seventh-highest rate). Allen, against two high last season, had a 28% target per route run rate, 2.48 YPRR (10th-best), and 0.109 FD/RR (17th-best). Allen could out-target Moore in Week 1. Allen is dealing with a heel issue. He practiced in full on Friday, but he has been listed as questionable.

Week 1 Running Back Start/Sit Grades

Khalil Herbert (RB)

As good as Herbert was last year on a per-touch basis, Chicago was reluctant to commit to him as the clear lead guy all year. Last season, he ranked 12th in explosive run rate and ninth in missed tackles forced per attempt. In the eight games he played at least 43% of the snaps last season, he averaged 14 touches and 77.8 total yards.With Swift on the roster, Herbert should be best viewed as his direct backup with some stand alone value. This isn’t the week to attempt to get cute and play him as a flex though against a Titans’ defense that allowed the fifth-lowest explosive run rate, the fourth-fewest rushing touchdowns, and the 13th-lowest missed tackles last season.

Joe Mixon (RB)

Last year, Mixon was the RB11 in fantasy, ranking eighth in snap share, third in opportunity share, and seventh in weighted opportunities. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 23rd in missed tackles forced per attempt, 37th in yards after contact per attempt, and 10th in zone run success rate. Mixon was also 20th in target share and 26th in YPRR among 48 qualifying backs last season. Mixon should see a bump to his zone rushing rate this season. Last year, Cincy utilized zone for 39.2% of their rushing plays versus Houston’s 45.9% rate. The bump in zone rushing won’t help him this week against Indy. Last year, Indy allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game with the ninth-lowest stuff rate, but gap runs gashed them. They held fast against zone with the seventh-lowest success rate and yards per carry allowed. Mixon, with his every-down workload, should be able to take advantage of their weakness against receiving backs, though. Indy allowed the eighth-most receptions and fourth-most receiving yards to backs last year. Anyway, you slice it, Mixon is a strong volume play in Week 1.

De’Von Achane (RB)

Achane was lightning in a bottle last year. He was the RB5 in fantasy points per game. In the eight games he played at least 41% of the snaps, Achane averaged 14.2 touches and 113.8 total yards. Every time he touched the ball, he had the chance to take it to the house, ranking first in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt, and second in yards after contact per attempt. Achane should lead the way for Miami’s rushing attack with his zone and gap run game usage. Jacksonville wasn’t a strong run defense overall, as they allowed the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the ninth-most rushing touchdowns while sitting with the 14th-highest missed tackle rate. They did, however, defend zone runs well, holding them to the fourth-lowest success rate and yards per carry. Achane’s runs were almost even between zone and gap (47.6% vs. 42.7%), whereas Mostert’s usage was zone-heavy. Achane had the ninth-highest yards per carry and the fourth-highest success rate with gap runs. Jacksonville allowed the 12th-most rushing yards and the sixth-highest yards per carry to gap runs last season. Achane should rip off some big gains in Week 1 on the way to a superb day.

Raheem Mostert (RB)

Mostert defied the laws of aging running backs last year as the RB4 in fantasy with 21 total touchdowns. He was still a wizard on a per-touch basis, ranking sixth in explosive run rate and 11th in missed tackles forced per attempt. On paper, this looks like a game where Achane could take the lead for the backfield, though. Jacksonville was an exploitable run defense last year, allowing the sixth-highest explosive run rate and the ninth-most rushing touchdowns while sitting with the 14th-highest missed tackle rate. The problem for Mostert is that they were strong against zone rushing, which accounted for 64.6% of his rushing attempts. Against zone Jacksonville, they allowed the fourth-lowest success rate and yards per carry. Mostert could break a big play at any time, but the odds are lower in Week 1.

James Conner (RB)

The falloff for aging running backs comes quickly. Based on last year, Conner looks like he can keep it at bay for at least one more season. Last year, he was seventh in explosive run rate, eighth in missed tackles forced per attempt, and fifth in yards after contact per attempt. Conner was the RB13 in fantasy points per game, as he ranked sixth in rushing yards last season. Conner could run wild in Week 1 against a Bills run defense that allowed the seventh-highest explosive run rate, the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 12th-highest yards per carry to gap runs in 2023. Last year, Conner saw 53.8% of his rushing volume on gap runs while ranking third in gap yards per carry and second in gap rushing yards. Conner is an RB2 who could return RB1 production in Week 1.

James Cook (RB)

Last season, in Weeks 11-18, with Joe Brady as the offensive coordinator, Cook was the RB11, averaging 19.6 touches and 104.3 total yards per game. Yes, he only played more than 60% of the snaps twice during that stretch, but it didn’t matter. After Week 10, he was 16th in target share (11.4%) among 34 qualifying backs while also ranking 10th in TPRR, fourth in receiving yards per game, and second in YPRR. In those final seven games, among 44 qualifying backs, Cook wasn’t spectacular in tackle-breaking metrics, ranking 24th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 43rd in yards after contact per attempt. He was quite good on gap runs (59.8% of his carries), ranking 12th in gap yards per carry and gap success rate. Cook should have a successful Week 1 against an Arizona run defense that allowed the most rushing yards per game and the eighth-highest explosive run rate while logging the third-lowest stuff rate. They also struggled to defend gap runs, giving up the eighth-highest gap yards per carry and the ninth-highest gap success rate. Cook is an RB2 that could produce like an RB1.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB)

Stevenson’s 2023 season was a terrible disappointment, but there’s hope that his 2024 campaign will be a wonderful bounce-back story. Last year, after Week 8, we saw glimpses of the Stevenson we thought we were drafting from the outset. In Weeks 9-13 (Stevenson missed the remainder of the season due to a high ankle sprain), among 48 qualifying backs, he ranked 13th in missed tackles forced per attempt and third in yards after contact per attempt. In his three full games in that span, he averaged 20.7 touches and 112.7 total yards as the RB4 in fantasy. The Patriots should look to lean on him in this opening game. Cincy’s run defense was atrocious last year, allowing the seventh-highest rushing yards per game and the fifth-highest explosive run rate and missed tackles allowed per attempt. Mondre SZN begins in Week 1.

Chase Brown (RB)

Brown should be heavily involved this season after working as a breather back last year. Last season, Brown was impressive on a per-touch basis, although the sample size is pretty limited (44 carries). Among 77 backs with at least 40 carries, Brown ranked 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in missed tackles forced per attempt. The rushing matchup is tough for Brown, but he could exploit the Pats through the air. Last season, New England allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and the LOWEST missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. The Pats did give up the ninth-most receptions and the 13th-most receiving yards to backs last season. Among 67 qualifying backs last year, Brown ranked first in YPRR and FD/RR. Brown is flex-worthy in Week 1.

Zack Moss (RB)

If the camp reports are right, Moss should open the season immediately, splitting work with Chase Brown. That’s not the hope for anyone who drafted him this summer, but it’s likely the reality. Last year, in the seven games he played at least 50% of the snaps, he finished with 21.1 touches and 98.5 total yards per game. Overall, he ranked 15th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 18th in yards after contact per attempt last year. Cincy could lean into their passing game this week with what projects to be a tough matchup on the ground. Last season, New England allowed the second-lowest explosive run rate and the LOWEST missed tackles per attempt and yards after contact per attempt. I wouldn’t trust Moss as an RB2 in my lineups but rather as a middling flex play.

Alvin Kamara (RB)

With Kendre Miller unable to stay healthy currently, Kamara’s every down role looks safe for now. Last season, Kamara was tenth in opportunity share, eighth in weighted opportunities, and ninth in red zone touches. His usage wasn’t the problem, as it carried him to an RB3 finish in fantasy points per game. His early-down efficiency was a worry. Among 49 qualifying backs, he ranked 35th in explosive run rate, 40th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 48th in yards after contact per attempt. Volume will have to carry Kamara in 2024, but without a sizable contender for the workload right now he shouldn’t have to worry. Carolina offers a juicy matchup for him to exploit in Week 1. Last year, they had the sixth-highest missed tackles allowed per attempt, the third-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the 10th-most rushing yards per game.

Aaron Jones (RB)

When Jones was FINALLY healthy last year, we saw the same back that we have come to love for fantasy over the years. In Weeks 15-20, Jones averaged 21.6 touches and 120.3 total yards as he was a weekly stud. During that same stretch, among 47 qualifying backs, he was eighth in explosive run rate and 10th in yards after contact per attempt. IF he can stay healthy (I KNOW it’s a big if), he will be awesome in fantasy. The Vikings need another pass catcher to step up opposite Justin Jefferson. No, I don’t think it will be Jordan Addison unless his target earning ability has jumped to another level this year. Jones could soak up routes and check-downs this season. Last year, he was still amazing in the passing game. Among 48 qualifying backs, he was sixth in TPRR, eighth in YPRR, and fourth in FD/RR. Jones should have a day on the ground against a run defense that allowed the second-highest explosive run rate, the eighth-highest yards after contact per attempt, and the fourth-most rushing yards per game. The Giants also surrendered the seventh-highest yards per reception to backs last season. Jones could flirt with RB1 numbers this week, but he’s best viewed as a strong RB2.

Devin Singletary (RB)

Singletary should operate as the Giants’ new workhorse back. Last year, he proved yet again that he can carry the mail. In Weeks 9-18, he averaged 19 touches and 86.6 total yards as the RB21 in fantasy points per game. Last year, he was 19th in explosive run rate and 22nd in missed tackles forced per attempt. Week 1 looks like it could be a slow start to the season for Singletary if Minnesota is as good at defending the run as they were last season. Minnesota held rushers to the lowest explosive run rate with the eighth-lowest yards after contact per attempt and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game allowed. Singletary is a volume-based RB2/3.

Week 1 Tight End Start/Sit Grades

Noah Fant (TE)

Last year, Fant was locked into a tight-end committee situation, but he should be the primary tight end this season. Last year, Fant was the TE36 in fantasy points per game with a 14% TPRR, 1.38 YPRR, and 0.054 FD/RR. None of those metrics scream STREAM ME IN WEEK 1, but the matchup is pretty good as Denver bled out production to tight ends last year, allowing the seventh-highest yards per reception and the most receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Fant is a low-end streaming option in deep leagues this week.

Brock Bowers (TE)

Brock Bowers enters the NFL as one of the best tight-end prospects of recent memory. Across his three collegiate seasons, he never finished lower than sixth in receiving grade or yards per route run (per PFF). We’ll see what his route share is out the gate with Michael Mayer still here. Bowers should compete with Jakobi Meyers for the second spot in the target pecking order this season. Bowers could return TE1 numbers immediately, but I’m a little more skeptical than many others. The matchup is okay but not amazing. Last year, the Bolts ranked 19th in fantasy points per game and 14th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends.

David Njoku (TE)

Njoku took flight with Joe Flacco last year as the TE7 in fantasy. The worry is what he did with Cleveland’s current starting quarterback. In the five games Watson played a full-time role, Njoku had a 15% target share with 1.23 yards per route run, 35.2 receiving yards per game, only one end zone target, and 0.035 first downs per route run. His 8.5 PPR points per game would have landed him as the TE17 last year. No matter how you slice it, that’s nightmare fuel for Njoku. Sadly, it could be a quiet opener for Njoku against a defense that allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game and the third-fewest receiving yards to tight ends last year.

Jake Ferguson (TE)

Ferguson finished last season as the TE10 in fantasy points per game. He was 17th in yards per route run and 15th in first downs per route run despite ranking tenth in receiving yards per game. Ferguson should swallow up target volume this season and finish again as a low-end TE1. This is a game where you should consider streaming options over him, though. Cleveland was a shutdown defense to tight ends last year. They allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game, the second-lowest yards per reception, and the fewest receiving yards to the position. Ferguson likely needs a touchdown this week to make you feel good about starting him.

Zach Ertz (TE)

Yes, I know you were looking for Ben Sinnott, aka the Lawmaker here. I’d love to write up Sinnott as a Week 1 play, but I have no clue what his snap share and routes per dropback rate will be. Just because I’m avoiding him here means he’s likely to score a touchdown this week. Now that I got that out of the way, I’m going to puke after saying this, but Ertz is a good streaming option for Week 1. Last year, he looked every bit like the player you’d think is on the back nine of his career. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he did rank tenth in target share but was also 39th in YPRR and 40th in FD/RR. Ertz is a volume and matchup play. Last year, Tampa Bay was ripped apart by tight ends giving up the second-most receiving yards, the 11th-highest yards per reception, and the third-most fantasy points per game.

Cade Otton (TE)

Otton was a weekly streaming possibility last year as the TE23 in fantasy points per game. He managed four TE1 performances last year. Among 51 qualifying tight ends, he ranked 27th in target share, 26th in receiving yards per game, and 46th in YPRR. Sadly, this isn’t a week to consider Otton for your starting lineups. Last year, Washington was tough against tight ends, allowing the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game and the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game.

Tyler Conklin (TE)

Conklin was the TE21 in fantasy points per game last year. He lived in the TE2 efficiency market, too, ranking 18th in target share, 16th in receiving yards per game, and 21st in YPRR. There will be weeks to consider streaming Conklin with Rodgers under center, but this isn’t one of them. Last year, the 49ers allowed the seventh-lowest yards per reception, the 12th-lowest catch rate, and the second-fewest receiving touchdowns to tight ends.

Kyle Pitts (TE)

I know you’ve heard this before, but the pain train stops here for Pitts. Disappointment szn is a thing of the past with Arthur Smith gone. We know Pitts wasn’t fully healthy last year, but his usage with Smith was confounding. Pitts finished as the TE16 in fantasy points per game and the TE15 in expected fantasy points per game. Much of this can be attributed to his minuscule touchdown production (only three, 18th among TEs) and a non-existent red zone role (34th in red zone targets). Pitts still earned volume at a solid clip, ranking 13th in target share and 11th in first-read share, although his efficiency dipped (18th in yards per route run and first downs per route run). Pitts should produce a tasty stat line in Week 1 against a defense that allowed the second-highest PPR points per target and fifth-most receiving touchdowns to slot receivers last year (2023 Pitts’ slot rate: 58.5%).

Week 1 Defense / Special Teams Start/Sit Grades

Week 1 Kicker Start/Sit Grades