Fans of “Stranger Things” know the Upside Down as a sinister alternative dimension that mirrors Hawkins, Indiana, the small town where the show’s characters live. Nothing in the Upside Down makes sense to mere mortals.
It’s the kind of place where, for instance, Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold and Malik Willis might finish as three of the highest-scoring fantasy quarterbacks in a given week. A place where Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could be virtually useless while Jauan Jennings could single-handedly win fantasy matchups. A place where the Carolina Panthers could put up the highest point total of the week so far.
We are living in the Upside Down.
Fans of “Stranger Things” know the Upside Down as a sinister alternative dimension that mirrors Hawkins, Indiana, the small town where the show’s characters live. Nothing in the Upside Down makes sense to mere mortals.
It’s the kind of place where, for instance, Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold and Malik Willis might finish as three of the highest-scoring fantasy quarterbacks in a given week. A place where Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could be virtually useless while Jauan Jennings could single-handedly win fantasy matchups. A place where the Carolina Panthers could put up the highest point total of the week so far.
Every time we think we’ve wrapped our heads around this silly little game, we’re confronted with strange, almost unfathomable results. We’re cast into the Upside Down and challenged to find a way out.
Well, the waiver wire can be the escape hatch. After all, that’s where Andy Dalton, Sam Darnold, Malik Willis and Jauan Jennings were dwelling before they showed up to turn Week 3 into a house of mirrors. In fact, some of them might still dwell there.
Analysis: Make that three consecutive games in which University of Oregon rookie Bucky Irving has bested incumbent starter Rachaad White in the rushing yards department. White has been absolutely ghastly between the tackles this season, where Irving has been outstanding. The relegation of White to passing downs and the two-minute offense is underway, making Bucky a potential league-winning addition from waivers.
Analysis: University of Wisconsin rookie Braelon Allen has looked sharp so far as a Jet, spelling superstar Breece Hall admirably. Allen has earned a nice piece of the pie already through his performance, which also benefits Hall in keeping his legs fresh. I am elevating the rookie from stash-plus to spot starter with an RB-friendly upcoming schedule.
Analysis: It was the Aaron Jones show on Sunday in Minnesota’s resounding romp over the Houston Texans. Chandler was quiet, turning his seven carries into only 13 rushing yards. I still have a lot of confidence in Chandler’s production within this offense. He is simply too good to not have on a roster as a premium stash with matchup-dependent flex potential.
Analysis: It wasn’t pretty, but Akers paid off as Houston’s de facto starting RB vs. the Vikings. Akers barely averaged two yards on his nine rushing attempts but found the end zone for an 8-yard score on his lone reception. The rest of this backfield without Joe Mixon is suspect at best. Akers is worth keeping around until Mixon returns to form, at which point Akers will still be a stash candidate.
Analysis: Mattison has never really been an exciting player to roster in fantasy, but he has caused an uproar in the fantasy community with his new role as a touchdown vulture. Mattison has now scored in each of the Raiders’ first three contests, despite virtually no production on any of his other opportunities. It takes a real sadist to add him off of waivers hoping his rage-inducing touchdown streak continues.
Analysis: The Steelers’ backfield is banged up, so there’s a chance Patterson could be Pittsburgh’s lead back Sunday. Najee Harris was reportedly seen with his arm in a sling on Monday, and Steelers coach Mike Tomlin said Jaylen Warren would be getting an MRI on his knee. The 33-year-old Patterson hasn’t logged more than 10 carries in a game since December 2022, but he had a pair of 100-yard rushing games that season. The Steelers face the Colts and their suspect run defense this week, and if Harris and Warren are both out, Patterson would become an intriguing Week 4 lineup option.
Analysis: I suppose there is something to be said about Perine earning passing down snaps for the Chiefs. Isiah Pacheco won’t be back anytime soon, but the lion’s share of Sunday night’s touches went to undrafted rookie Carson Steele. Perine is just about dust, but there’s a bit of residue left until Clyde Edwards-Helaire is ready to return from his leave of absence.
Ray Davis has looked very good carrying the ball every few series to spell James Cook. Cook is of slight stature and hasn’t seen this heavy a workload before, so Davis must be ready on your bench in case he is pressed into a more meaningful role.
Week 2 was a disaster for those of us who added Tank Bigsby on the heels of his Week 1 performance. His one touch was called back on a penalty, and Bigsby exited the game with a shoulder injury. He is still the immediate substitute for Travis Etienne, so we must hold the line.
Isaac Guerendo may or may not be good at football. His college career at Wisconsin and Louisville gives us little to go on. But Guerendo is big and fast and is currently just one injury away from an immensely valuable lead-RB role in Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers offense.
I really think the Bears have a solid Cerberus in their backfield. D’Andre Swift has not found his groove as the starter, leaving the door open for offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to rotate in Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. Herbert only earned nine yards on four carries against a terrible Colts run defense, so I’m leaning Johnson as my preferred stash. Johnson played 33 snaps on Sunday, while Herbert played nine.
Roschon Johnson was Chicago’s best ballcarrier on Sunday. He toted eight carries for 30 yards and added 32 receiving yards on four receptions.
It was another productive day for Justice Hill against the Cowboys. He played a quieter second fiddle to Derrick Henry this time around but still accrued 54 yards on seven touches. On the off chance King Henry misses time, Hill will be a great player to elevate from your bench.
Analysis: Well, apparently, we were all misinformed. We were told by many (myself included) that it was “Brandon Aiyuk week.” Jennings said loudly, “Excuse me. I’d like a word.” Jennings exploded with a 40% target share, 11 receptions, 175 receiving yards and three scores in the 49ers’ losing effort. Obviously, Jennings won’t put up this type of week-winning stat line every game while Deebo Samuel is out, but he will remain a steady contributor for an offense that injuries have ravaged. As long as Samuel and George Kittle are out, Jennings will be the No. 2 option in this offense. He has plus matchups in each of the next two games against New England and Arizona, which have allowed the 10th-most and 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Analysis: Mooney has proven over the last two games that last year’s falloff was the outlier. The talent that captivated us in previous seasons is still there. Over the last two weeks, Mooney has averaged 7.5 targets and 77 receiving yards per game as an integral part of Atlanta’s passing attack. He has operated as the No. 2 behind Drake London, essentially pushing Kyle Pitts into a tertiary role. Mooney faces an uphill battle next week against the Saints secondary before some flex-worthy matchups against the Bucs and Panthers.
Analysis: Finally, the Patriots turned to arguably their best receiver for help with the aerial attack in Week 3. Douglas swallowed up a 34.6% target share, a 45.9% air-yard share and a 47.4% first-read share with 2.46 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). It was a wonderful performance for a player who proved last year he belongs in this league and as a trusted part of an NFL passing attack. Douglas has two wonderful matchups in the next two weeks that should put him firmly in the flex conversation for fantasy GMs. The 49ers and Dolphins have allowed the second-most and eighth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers (per Fantasy Points Data).
Analysis: Through three games, Robinson has earned single-game target shares of 28.5%, 14.2% and 23.5%. Can anyone spot the outlier in this sample? Yeah, Robinson will be heavily involved weekly as the Giants’ WR2 behind Malik Nabers. In those two high target-share games, Robinson averaged 6.5 receptions and 52.5 receiving yards. These are strong numbers that will go overlooked and disrespected by your league mates. Don’t be the fantasy manager who is blinded by the wretched stink of the Giants’ offense. Robinson looks like a solid weekly flex play moving forward, especially in PPR settings.
Analysis: Doubs is likely to see a resurgence for Week 4. Jordan Love should be back under center for the Packers, which helps the entire offense and the passing attack. In Week 1, with Love at quarterback for most of the game, Doubs had a 20% target share, 23.1% air-yard share, 29.2% first-read share and 1.67 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Doubs has a tough matchup against Minnesota in Week 4, but his schedule opens up after that with dates against the Rams and Cardinals, who have respectively allowed the seventh-most and 10th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.
Analysis: Johnston keeps doing it. He keeps scoring touchdowns, with three across his last two games. His Week 3 stat line wasn’t nearly as impressive, though. Johnston did lead the Chargers’ wide receivers in snaps while tying for the team lead in routes, but he only managed a 10% target share to go along with his team-leading 44 receiving yards (tied with Ladd McConkey). I understand if you want to stay in the flames with Johnston and ride the lightning, but his production is walking a thin line of unsustainability. Johnston isn’t high on my waiver list this week. His next two matchups against Kansas City and Denver aren’t cakewalks.
Analysis: Williams has seen his workload ramp up in recent weeks. Against the Patriots in Week 3, Williams had a 50% route share, 11.4% target share, 19% first-read share and 1.70 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). The arrow is pointing up for Williams, as the Jets’ offense looks like a dangerous beast with Aaron Rodgers flashing vintage form. Williams’ upcoming matchups are horrendous, but if Rodgers really is back, Williams can overcome some of them. The huge stretch of games where he could be a difference maker for your squad is Weeks 9-11, when he faces Houston, Arizona and Indy. All three of those secondaries have big-time questions. Stash him now and enjoy the payoff once bye weeks start getting wild.
Analysis: Nailor continues to produce on limited volume. He has scored in each game of the season while not seeing more than more four targets in any outing. Talent does find a way, though. The Vikings are a dangerous offense, and I didn’t think I would say that by Week 4, but Sam Darnold is playing extremely well. Nailor likely sees a dip in production once Jordan Addison returns, but Addison isn’t a target-hog type of talent. If Nailor continues to produce with his opportunities, he will earn more as the season progresses.
Analysis: I hate to break it to the weirdos who don’t think Russell Wilson is cringe: Wilson is not getting the starting job from Justin Fields anytime soon. Fields has led Pittsburgh to a 3-0 start and passed for a season-high 245 yards in Week 3. Fields threw for one touchdown and rushed for another to put up a solid 18.4 fantasy points, even though he only earned six yards on six rushing attempts. That rushing upside puts Fields in potential QB1 territory every single week. He also faces three struggling defenses in a row: Indianapolis, Dallas and Las Vegas. Fields is the best widely available waiver QB on the market.
Analysis: I told you Geno Smith was going to be a QB1 this season. His Week 3 production was modest, thanks to a rout of the Dolphins and a pair of interceptions. Smith still passed for 289 yards and one touchdown despite ceding a healthy chunk of the offensive stats to RB Zach Charbonnet. Each of Seattle’s next three opponents has had issues in coverage this season, making Geno a preferred streaming option for the next month.
Analysis: It takes a really juicy green-light matchup to get me thinking about putting Deshaun Watson on any of my fantasy rosters. While the next three games are on the road for the Browns, Watson should have opportunities to light it up against three very suspect pass defenses. He has yet to look good for more than one possession at a time this season, so it’s put up or shut up time.
Analysis: Ironically enough, Darnold scored more fantasy points against the tough 49ers and Texans defenses than he did in the opener against the Giants. I think there’s a bit more meat on this bone in Week 4 against Green Bay before we stream someone else thereafter. Darnold looks incredibly efficient under Kevin O’Connell’s tutelage in Minnesota and is due to have Jordan Addison back in the fold soon.
Analysis: The Red Rifle is back. Bryce Young‘s benching was an instant cash-in for Dave Canales’ Panthers. Dalton passed for more than 300 yards and three touchdowns against the Raiders. His next three opponents are much better in the secondary than Las Vegas is, but Dalton might be the cheapest streamer you can find if your FAAB is running dry.
Analysis: Finally, Chicago stopped playing silly Shane Waldron games in Week 3. Previously, Kmet had seen his playing time cut, as Chicago was running out Gerald Everett more than Kmet. I’m glad their usages flipped in Week 3, because it was a needed change. Kmet had a 73% route share on Sunday, a 21.1% target share and an 81% snap share. He produced 10 receptions, 97 receiving yards and a score. Kmet is the best waiver wire add at the position if he is out there in your league. The next two weeks, he faces the Rams and Panthers, who have allowed the third-most and second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Analysis: Despite missing part of Week 3’s game against the Titans with a shoulder issue, Kraft still led the Packers’ tight end room with a 67% snap share and a 15.7% target share. Now, that target share still resulted in only three targets for Kraft, as the Packers still leaned on the ground game and hid Malik Willis. That should change moving forward, with Jordan Love likely returning in Week 4, just in time for Kraft to see some wonderful TE matchups. The Vikings and Rams have respectively allowed the fourth-most and third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Analysis: Last week, Gesicki led the three-way Bengals TE committee with a 53% route share, 25% target share, 22.6% air-yard share, 32% first-read share and 4.14 yards per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Those will be tough (if not impossible) numbers for Gesicki to replicate moving forward, especially with Tee Higgins back in the huddle. Gesicki can be a matchup-based streaming option over the next two weeks. Carolina has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, and Baltimore checks in with the fifth-most fantasy points per game allowed to the position.
Analysis: Entering Monday Night Football, Ertz was the TE9 in fantasy points per game, with a 15.1% target share, 30.1% air-yard share, 20% first-read share and 1.76 yards per route run, (per Fantasy Points Data). Among 38 qualifying tight ends, Ertz ranks 18th in separation and fifth in route win rate. He should hold some matchup-based streaming upside moving forward. Arizona isn’t a pass defense to fear, and Baltimore has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Analysis: I don’t want to overreact to a one-game sample of Conklin being good. Yes, against the Patriots in Week 3, he had a 17.1% target share and a 32.8% air-yard share, and he finished with 93 receiving yards, but he only had a 4.8% first-read share. Aaron Rodgers exhausted all of his options in progressions in Week 3 before turning to Conklin, so let’s not get carried away here. Also, let’s remind ourselves that Conklin had four targets and 16 receiving yards in his first two games of the season. Could Conklin evolve into a matchup-based streaming option? Sure, but I’m not trusting him as a possible TE1 moving forward. This is more likely an isolated ceiling game than the beginning of a trend.
Stash Candidates: none
DEFENSES
Written by Pat Fitzmaurice
Tennessee Titans: 3% rostered
Next Opponents: @MIA, BYE, IND
True value: $2
Desperate Need: $5
Budget-minded: $1
Analysis: There is a smoldering crater where the Miami Dolphins’ offense used to be. Starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa sustained a concussion in Week 2 and is expected to be out a while. Skylar Thompson looked completely overmatched in his Week 3 start against Seattle and left the game with an injury. Journeyman Tim Boyle replaced Thompson. The Dolphins acquired Tyler Huntley last week, but he’s had little time to process the playbook. The Miami offense figures to be punchless in Week 4. The Titans’ defense is a respectable unit that ranked ninth in DVOA before Tennessee’s Week 3 loss to the Packers. The Titans are by far the most attractive defensive streaming option for Week 4, and they are widely available. It will probably take more than $1 to acquire them in a week where the streaming options are sparse.
New Orleans Saints: 36% rostered
Next Opponents: @ATL, @KC, TB
True value: $1
Desperate Need: $1
Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: The Saints’ offense didn’t keep up its end of the bargain in a Week 3 loss to the Eagles, but the Saints’ defense pulled its weight. The Eagles beat the Saints 15-12, but New Orleans has held all three of its opponents this season to fewer than 20 points. The Saints have forced seven turnovers and collected 11 sacks in their first three games. This week’s matchup against Atlanta should probably be regarded as a neutral one, but New Orleans is nevertheless an appealing Week 4 option based on its performance thus far.
Philadelphia Eagles: 45% rostered
Next Opponents: @TB, BYE, CLE
True value: $1
Desperate Need: $1
Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: The Philadelphia defense has its flaws, but in Week 3, the Eagles put the clamps on a Saints offense that had been superb in its first two games. Now, Philly has a date with a Tampa Bay offense that sputtered in an embarrassing Week 3 home loss to Denver.
Las Vegas Raiders: 44% rostered
Next Opponents: CLE, @DEN, PIT
True value: $1
Desperate Need: $1
Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: The Raiders were just trucked by the Panthers, so this won’t be an easy sales pitch, but here it goes: Las Vegas is about to face a Cleveland offense that has scored 18, 17 and 15 points in its first three games. Browns QB Deshaun Watson has already taken 16 sacks. Also, you might be able to keep the Raiders for a favorable Week 5 matchup against the Broncos if they acquit themselves well this week.
Cincinnati Bengals: 27% rostered
Next Opponents: @CAR, BAL, @NYG
True value: $1
Desperate Need: $1
Budget-minded: $0
Analysis: Do we really believe Carolina is going to be an offensive juggernaut now that the Panthers have Andy Dalton at quarterback rather than Bryce Young? The Panthers dropped 36 points on the Raiders in Week 3, rolling up 437 yards of offense. If the Bengals’ offense fires on all cylinders this week and forces the Panthers to throw in order to keep up, Cincinnati should be able to sack Dalton a few times and perhaps force a turnover or two.
Analysis: An oldie but a goodie, the 40-year-old Prater has kicked a pair of field goals in each of the Cardinals’ first three games. He’s a perfect 6-of-6 on FG tries and 8-of-8 on extra points. Arizona is averaging 29.7 points a game and has a Week 3 date against Washington, which has one of the worst defenses in the league. Prater figures to have some scoring opportunities this week, and he’ll be kicking at home.
Analysis: Myers is 6-of-7 on field goals and 7-of-7 on extra points, so the Seahawks are getting him plenty of scoring attempts. There should be more this week in a potential shootout against the Lions. A weatherproof dome game adds to the appeal.
Analysis: The Saints’ offense fizzled against the Eagles in Week 3, although Grupe kicked a pair of field goals. He’s been a busy man this season, with seven field goals and 10 extra points. Grupe gets a dome game against the Falcons in Atlanta this week. In two games against the Falcons last season, Grupe kicked three field goals and 11 (!) extra points.
Analysis: Four of Santos’ six field goals this season have been 50 yards or longer, so reliability from distance is one of the appeals here. I also think there’s a case to be made that Santos stands to benefit from the erratic play of rookie QB Caleb Williams. While Williams has been capable enough to move the ball in spurts, he and the Bears offense have struggled to get the ball into the end zone. The Bears have scored three offensive touchdowns in their first three games. With Williams struggling to hit receivers when he gets close to the end zone and the field is condensed, Santos should continue to be a busy man.
Analysis: The Vikings’ rookie kicker is a perfect 5-of-5 on field goals and 10-of-10 on extra points. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is an offensive wizard who has the Minnesota offense humming with Sam Darnold at quarterback. Road games in Green Bay aren’t always ideal for kickers, but weather shouldn’t be a factor Sunday afternoon when the Vikings face the Packers at Lambeau Field.
A 55-yard catch-and-run touchdown led to a sexy 4-95 stat line for Calvin Austin III in Week 3. But George Pickens remains the only Pittsburgh receiver worth rostering. Putting in a claim on Austin would be a textbook example of chasing last week’s points — an egregious mistake.
Some fantasy managers will do a double-take when they examine box scores and see that Tyler Badie had a 9-70-0 rushing line for the Broncos. It’s worth familiarizing yourself with Badie, a sixth-round draft pick out of the University of Missouri in 2022, but he is not taking over the Denver backfield. Most of Badie’s carries came late in the game with the Broncos nursing a comfortable lead en route to a 26-7 upset of the Buccaneers, and Badie got 43 of those 70 yards on one run.
Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon gave a notably tepid assessment of rookie RB Trey Benson during training camp, suggesting that the third-round pick wasn’t exactly wowing his new employers. Over his first three games, Benson has 16 carries for 31 yards and no touchdowns. In Week 3, he played only two snaps, while veteran RB Emari Demercado played 12 snaps behind starter James Conner. There’s no reason to keep Benson on your roster.
In Week 2, Gus Edwards got 18 carries and cranked out 59 rushing yards in the Chargers’ easy 26-3 win over the Panthers. In Week 3, with a less favorable game script in a 20-10 loss to the Steelers, Edwards had only three carries for nine yards. J.K. Dobbins has emerged as the Chargers’ lead back, and it’s been easy to see why. Despite his extensive injury history, Dobbins has looked powerful and elusive. Edwards … has not. In fact, Edwards failed to record a single broken tackle in the Chargers first two games. You can dump Edwards. Even if Dobbins were to go down, it’s hard to imagine the Chargers would let Edwards handle the vast majority of the rushing duties.
Dalton Schultz is still rostered in 72% of Yahoo leagues. He has 7-48-0 receiving on 11 targets. The Texans’ passing game runs through WRs Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Although tight end is a wasteland, you can certainly do better than Schultz.
Rico Dowdle outsnapped Ezekiel Elliott 37-15 on Sunday, according to PFF’s Nate Jahnke. Dowdle also out-touched Elliott 11-4. It’s possible Zeke has hit the wall. Even if there’s still gas left in the tank, it has become apparent that the Cowboys want him in a complementary role and see Dowdle as their lead back.
Justin Herbert left the Chargers’ Week 3 loss to the Steelers after seemingly aggravating his high-ankle sprain. Herbert has also been dealing with plantar fasciitis and could miss time. Even if Herbert is able to go in Week 4, his mobility will be limited, and he’ll still be operating a run-heavy offense that tamps down his scoring potential. The Chargers also have a Week 5 bye coming up. If you drop Herbert, there’s a good chance he won’t be claimed before Week 6 at the earliest. It’s possible he’ll become startable at some point later this season, but Herbert isn’t playable right now.
Jaylen Warren has played 37.6% of the Steelers offensive snaps so far this season. In Week 3, he played as many snaps as former WR turned RB Cordarrelle Patterson, a favorite of Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith. Warren has 14-54-0 rushing and 5-28-0 receiving. Najee Harris is clearly the Steelers’ lead back, and it will be hard to for Warren to carve out any stand-alone fantasy value as a part-time player when the Pittsburgh offensive line has been decimated by injuries.
The promise of heavy usage drew a lot of people to Zamir White during fantasy draft season, but White has been an unmitigated bust so far. He has 32 carries for 102 yards with no touchdowns, adding five receptions for 16 yards. White had a scrumptious Week 3 matchup against a bad Carolina run defense and finished with 10 carries for 34 yards. Adding insult to injury for the White stakeholders, his backup, Alexander Mattison, had a 2-yard TD run in the first quarter. The game wound up being a lopsided win for the Panthers — hardly an ideal game script for White. If you can’t safely start White against a team with one of the worst run defenses in the league, how can you feel comfortable starting him against anyone else?
FantasyPros has a robust Discord community, and the members of that community ask the FantasyPros analysts hundreds of team-management questions every week. This week, there will probably be two dozen Discord members who ask whether they should cut Anthony Richardson. The answer is no. Richardson has been sloppy as a passer this season and hasn’t given investors the rushing bonanza they’d hoped for. But the big rushing games are coming. Trust us: They’re coming. Colts head coach Shane Steichen has an excellent track record with quarterbacks. And because the Colts’ defense isn’t very good, Richardson could be thrust into a lot of track-meet game scripts where he’s throwing and scrambling a lot to keep up with Indy’s opponents. Do not pull the ripcord on Richardson yet.
You shouldn’t Anthony Richardson, nor should you drop his No. 1 receiver, Michael Pittman. Richardson’s struggles have affected Pittman, who has 11-88-0 receiving on 20 targets. It’s worth remembering that in Richardson’s first NFL start, Pittman had 8-97-1 on 11 targets. Over the last three years, Pittman has averaged 99 receptions and 1,053 yards. If you want to bench Pittman, fine. But don’t cut him.
It’s been a rough start for D’Andre Swift, who’s averaging 1.8 yards per carry and has yet to score a touchdown. Swift had a Week 3 matchup against a Colts run defense that had given up more than 150 rushing yards to both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs over the first two weeks of the season, yet the Indy defense held Swift to 20 yards on 13 carries. The case for holding Swift at least a little longer is that he still has some pass-catching value (6-46-0 on 10 targets), and he still led Chicago’s running backs in snaps by a comfortable margin in Week 3, out-snapping runner-up Roschon Johnson 48-33. (Admittedly, we don’t feel as strongly about hanging on to Swift as we do about hanging on to Richardson and Pittman.)
