Hello and welcome to the Week 4 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Team Pace and Plays
- If there’s one thing you can trust with the Cowboys, it’s that they’re going to play very fast. As you can see, they also run a bunch of plays despite having a middling offense so far. Part of the reason they can run so many plays is because their defense lets their opponents score with a defense that ranks 28th in EPA per play allowed (per RBSDM.com). On Thursday night, the Cowboys will face a defense that, on the surface, has played well but could be without a couple of key players in the secondary. With the pace that Dallas plays with along with a tendency to throw about as much as expected (their -0.7% PROE this year ranks 11th), I expect Dallas to push the gas against the Giants and find success as they have the league’s highest explosive pass rate. If they do that, then getting over their current team total is within reach.
- Action: bet Cowboys team total over 25.5 points (-110 or better)
Team Pass Rates
- Find a quarterback you trust, and you’ll be much more willing to throw the ball. That’s what happened in Carolina as Bryce Young was benched in favor of Andy Dalton. Carolina’s 5.9% PROE on Sunday was just the fourth time since the beginning of last season that Carolina had a positive PROE (one of the other times was when Dalton played in Week 3 of 2023). Making grand declarations after a one-game sample can be troubling, but the fact that this dramatic increase in pass rate came with a quarterback change has me believing it’ll be more fact than fiction. Adam Thielen left the game with a hamstring injury following his touchdown, and his absence would benefit Diontae Johnson even more coming off of his career-best day. Jonathan Mingo would also stand to benefit from Thielen missing time as he was the only other receiver to eclipse a 70% routes run rate for the Panthers. The value of Panthers pass catchers has absolutely flipped on a dime with Dalton in the lineup.
- Action: buy Diontae Johnson, add Jonathan Mingo
Running Back Usage
- I’ve written about the Broncos backfield already in this column, but I want to address it again because I still believe that it’s a valuable backfield to have exposure to. In Week 1, we saw Jaleel McLaughlin shoulder the majority of the work with 15 opportunities to just 10 for Javonte Williams. In the two games since then, McLaughlin has just nine total opportunities with snap rates below the 30% mark. Meanwhile, Williams has yet to see his snap rate dip below the 50% mark (yet hasn’t been above 66%) and he has back-to-back games with six high-value touches. The green-zone touches in Week 3 were split evenly as each of these two backs got two of their own, but it seems evident that Williams’ workload is more sustainable. It’s also worth noting that Tyler Badie did get nine carries in the Week 3 blowout, but most of them came later when the game was in control for Denver.
- Action: hold Javonte Williams, sell Jaleel McLaughlin, monitor Tyler Badie
- With Isiah Pacheco on injured reserve, the Chiefs backfield was open for the taking. In the first game without Pacheco, it was Carson Steele who commanded the RB1 role over Samaje Perine. Steele was given a hefty 19 opportunities in the game compared to a respectable 10 for Perine. Steele was also given all three of the Chiefs’ green zone touches, further adding to his value. Though Perine earned more targets (4) than Steele (2), Steele ran more routes on Sunday. At this point, it does feel like a bit of a 1A and 1B scenario as Steele’s snap rate was at just 62%, so the game script could dictate their usage a bit more. Finally, the Chiefs also did sign Kareem Hunt to the practice squad (he was inactive in Week 3), so he figures to mix in as well in the future.
- Action: buy Carson Steele, hold Samaje Perine, add Kareem Hunt
- The Bengals are off to a rough start, but their backfield remains quite valuable given they still have a top-five offense. In fact, their 0.145 rushing EPA per play ranks second behind their division-rival Ravens. Fortunately, this backfield is a lot less messy than most in the league as it only deploys two running backs: Zack Moss and Chase Brown. Moss is the clear lead back as he’s had a snap share of at least 65% in every game this season, while Brown has yet to top a 33% snap rate (Week 1). Most notable is that Moss’ routes run rate has increased in consecutive weeks since the start of the season. With the Bengals leading the league in pass rate over expected, being Cincinnati’s passing-downs back holds even more value. Brown was given a season-high 10 opportunities, so he still has plenty of contingent value should something happen to Moss. Ultimately, this is a backfield that I want as much exposure to right now, even if one is more of a bench stash at the moment.
- Action: buy Zack Moss and Chase Brown
Wide Receiver Usage
- The Colts finally saw the return of second-year receiver Josh Downs. In his first game back, he was tied for the team lead in targets with five, running a route on 71% of Anthony Richardson‘s dropbacks. His return most directly impacted rookie Adonai Mitchell, who ran just two total routes after being at a 72% routes run rate through the first two games. The larger concern I have for Colts pass catchers as a whole, though, is the volume. In two of Indy’s three games, Richardson has attempted 20 or fewer passes and completed 10 or fewer passes. This is not a sustainable level of volume for any wide receiver, even if this was a very concentrated passing attack. But, no Colts player has yet to top eight targets in a single game this year. With Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce also a part of the rotation, it’s hard to see how any of them will be able to have a substantial floor. Richardson’s league-leading 12.6-yard ADOT leaves the door open for a ceiling outcome, but I don’t really feel comfortable banking on that happening.
- Action: sit all Colts wide receivers until we see more play volume
- My Green Bay Packers (I’m allowed to say that since I’m officially an owner) have somehow managed to get two wins with Malik Willis. While the production from the wide receivers hasn’t been incredible, I want to focus on how they’ve been used with Jordan Love closer to returning to action. Overall volume has been low with Willis attempting just 34 passes over the past two weeks combined, but that is sure to rise when Love is back. Still, both Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed have run a route on over 80% of the team’s dropbacks in this two-week span. Christian Watson has hovered around the 60% mark while Dontayvion Wicks has been just over the 50% mark. My favorite target right now would be Reed as Green Bay continues to manufacture touches for him with five rushing attempts so far this year. Doubs, with the highest route rate, also seems like he’ll have a consistent role in the offense. Watson, with a group-low 13% targets per route run rate, isn’t seeing enough work in an offense already spreading the ball around to make me want to try to buy low on him.
- Action: buy Jayden Reed, hold Romeo Doubs, sell Christian Watson
- With Cooper Kupp sidelined, the Rams were left with a hodge podge of wide receivers to fill in for him and Puka Nacua. Per Jourdan Rodrigue, Kupp’s timeline for returning is fluid so it’s worth dissecting how the usage played out without him for Los Angeles. Rams veterans Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell led the way with a 97% and 83% routes run rate, respectively. Atwell had run a route on just 17% of dropbacks in the two weeks prior, so he was a clear beneficiary of Kupp’s absence. Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington failed to eclipse a 50% rate. In fact, Johnson’s route rate dropped below 50% for the first time in a game this season. Furthermore, no single receiver on the team earned more than five targets. Though the Rams only attempted 25 passes, this level of concentration (or lack thereof) in the target tree should be expected without a true alpha receiver like Kupp or Nacua. Robinson remains the favorite to have consistent usage as his routes rate hasn’t dipped below 88% in a game this season, but his team-leading 16.3-yard ADOT will make his production much more boom-or-bust.
- Action: add Tutu Atwell, buy Demarcus Robinson, sell Jordan Whittington and Tyler Johnson
Tight End Usage
- Cole Kmet is starting to get more involved (which may be one of the few good things you can say about Shane Waldron’s offense right now). Kmet’s targets and routes run have gone up in each of the first three weeks. In fact, Kmet’s 11 targets and 10 receptions on Sunday were both tied for a single-game career-high for him. I’m fading Kmet a bit right now for two reasons, though. First, I don’t expect Caleb Williams to be throwing the ball 55 times in a game very often. Second, Keenan Allen has been inactive in each of the past two games, likely opening up targets for Kmet in the same area of the field where Allen would be operating. Tight end is, once again, a barren wasteland of production, so you could certainly do worse, but I would sell high on this performance if you made other tight end plans following Kmet’s disappointing Week 1 performance.
- Action: sell Cole Kmet
- Mark Andrews has eight targets this year. Among the tight ends with more targets include Tyler Conklin, Colby Parkinson, Jordan Aikins, and Noah Fant, just to name a few. His teammate, Isaiah Likely, currently has twice the targets, but only has four in his last two games. Most concerning for Andrews is that he ran a route on just 35% of dropbacks on Sunday against the Cowboys and played on just 33% of snaps. Now, this could have been due to having such a massive lead over Dallas, and Baltimore only attempted 15 passes, but Andrews has never been used this little across this many games. I’m officially #concerned about Andrews and you should definitely be looking for other options if you haven’t already.
- Action: sit Mark Andrews and find a replacement
Quick Hops
- Bucky Irving is quickly headed toward getting more work, specifically in the rushing game. So far this year, Irving has six fewer carries than Rachaad White yet has 88 more rushing yards. White will likely continue to get more reps in the passing game, but Irving is still a screaming buy.
- In his first game back for the Bears this season, Roschon Johnson was given a team-high five high-value touches. I wrote last week that D’Andre Swift had this backfield in his control, and I’m already ready to eat crow on that because his efficiency is putrid – he’s averaging -2.4 rushing yards over expected per attempt according to Next Gen Stats.
- Drake London is tied for the league lead with seven targets while his team is inside the red zone. While his ceiling may be a bit limited, he has scored a touchdown in back-to-back games following a disappointing Week 1 and will continue to be in the mix for the Falcons when they get close to the end zone.
- Courtland Sutton currently sits tied for 8th in the league in total targets with 27 through three games. That’s given Sutton a 25% target share while no other Broncos player is above a 14% target share. Combine that with a 40% air yards share and Sutton is looking more like a viable WR3 option. He just needs the efficiency to match the workload.
- Only three tight ends have run a route on at least 80% of his team’s dropbacks in every game this season: Travis Kelce, Cade Otton, and…Tyler Conklin. Conklin is only averaging 3.3 targets per game, though, so I’m not taking that much stock in his high routes share.