Hello and welcome to the Week 3 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Hello and welcome to the Week 3 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy points per game to his receiving expected fantasy points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Team Pace and Plays
- One thing that Aaron Rodgers carried over from his playing days with the Packers is his penchant for letting the clock run down as long as he can before snapping the ball. That’s reflected in the fact that the Jets are currently third-slowest by pace over expected. On top of this, the Jets have averaged the third-fewest plays per game in the NFL through two weeks. That’s shocking given their offense ranks 10th overall in EPA per play (per RBSDM.com), meaning they’re moving the ball, but they’re also taking their sweet old time doing so. Lack of volume is certainly a concern, but the Jets do currently have the most concentrated target tree with Garrett Wilson (30.4% target rate) and Breece Hall (25.0%) leading the way. Allen Lazard, who is third in target share at 23.2%, figures to be competing more with Mike Williams as his playing time ramps up throughout the season. As long as the volume and pace remain where they are, Wilson and Hall are the only two players on the Jets that I’m considering starting.
Team Pass Rates
- Last season in nine games with Antonio Pierce as their head coach, the Las Vegas Raiders had a -3.1% PROE, 11th-lowest in the league in that span. Now, to start the 2024 campaign the Raiders sit with the third-highest PROE at 5.9%. A lot of that is due to the Raiders posting a 10.1% PROE in their win against the Ravens, but it’s a much different direction than what many previously thought would be a run-heavy administration. This, unfortunately, has only resulted in reasonable usage for two players — Davante Adams (18 total targets) and Brock Bowers (17 total targets). Jakobi Meyers has just three and five targets in Las Vegas’ first two games despite running a route on 89% of the team’s dropbacks. Should this increased passing rate continue, then maybe more room can be made for Meyers, but I’m skeptical that Pierce leans this heavily into passing with Gardner Minshew under center. Adams and Bowers should remain in starting lineups, but I have a shorter leash on Meyers and he can be dropped if the Raiders’ passing rates do the same.
Running Back Usage
- One of the big things holding back James Cook was never another running back, it was Josh Allen. Allen, for several years now, has been the team’s goal-line back, but things may be changing. So far this year, Cook has scored two rushing touchdowns (as many as he had last year) and he’s gotten 100% of the team’s goal-line rushes so far (he got just 14% of them last year). Now, that usage last Thursday night could have been due to the hand injury Allen was dealing with heading into the game. But, it’s definitely a step in the right direction. Hopefully, in addition to this, Cook starts to get more work as a pass-catcher as he’s averaging fewer than four expected fantasy points per game from a receiving perspective and hasn’t crossed the 50% routes per dropback rate yet. I’m holding Cook for now and it’s looking like he may have been a fantasy draft gem.
- The big storyline on Sunday was how the Dallas Cowboys got obliterated by the Saints. What went a little under the radar was the usage in their backfield. This continues to be a messy situation with Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott — both of whom appear in or near the bottom-left portion of the chart above — seemingly splitting drives. And then you have Deuce Vaughn and Hunter Luepke, who have also worked their way into the rotation. Not a single back has a snap share over 51% in a game this season with the max number of opportunities given to a single back being just 12 (Elliott in Week 1 and Dowdle in Week 2). Despite what we saw Sunday, I still think that this offense is good enough to warrant holding onto both Elliott and Dowdle, but you need to be really struggling at running back to play them.
- The Minnesota Vikings are another split backfield, but one that I feel much better about given it’s made up of just two guys, Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler. Jones is clearly the 1A back in this situation, handling a 55% and 61% snap share in the first two weeks with at least 15 opportunities in each game. Though Chandler’s snap share has yet to get over the 35% mark, he’s still had double-digit opportunities in both games. Jones still has the lead in getting the high-value touches with a count of 10 to Chandler’s four, mainly because he’s more involved in the passing game. However, Chandler is currently only rostered in about 40% of leagues, so if he’s available in yours then he’s a priority add as one of the more valuable handcuffs who also has his own role now.
Wide Receiver Usage
- In Week 1, Jaxon Smith-Njigba had just two targets, and panic was on the rise. A major reason for the panic was that he had just a 3.0-yard average depth of target, reminiscent of the short-target usage that he had last season with Shane Waldron calling plays. Week 2 was a different story, though, as he was targeted a career-high 16 times (just his second game with double-digit targets) and had a whopping 10.8-yard ADOT, the third-highest mark in a game in his career. Not only this amount of usage but also this type of usage is what is key to unlocking JSN’s weekly ceiling. Seattle is also now one of just seven teams with a positive pass rate over expectation on the season. If this game is indicative of what’s to come for the second-year receiver, I’m happy to buy high on him.
- One of the major stories of the offseason was the Brandon Aiyuk contract negotiations. The 49ers got a deal done with him in the waning minutes of the offseason, but he still missed a ton of practice and reps in the preseason. That likely is contributing to his poor early-season performance as he’s recorded a total of six receptions for 71 yards. In fact, he has just one more target than Jauan Jennings so far this season. But, the peripheral usage is still there as Aiyuk has run a route on a team-high 90% of the team’s dropbacks. He also has three end zone targets this year, but he just hasn’t been able to convert any of them into a touchdown, which would drastically have changed his fantasy outlook. More targets should be funneled to him, too, with Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve and Deebo Samuel set to miss several weeks. I’m optimistic that Aiyuk will get back to his old self sooner rather than later.
- Somehow, some way, Arthur Smith is still leaving an impact on the Atlanta Falcons, or so it seems. Drake London (10) currently trails Ray-Ray McCloud (12) for the team lead in targets while being tied with Darnell Mooney. Surely, London is a better receiver than both McCloud and Mooney! The saving grace, though, is that the three receivers I’ve mentioned are the only three wide receivers to have run a route for the Falcons so far this season. Zac Robinson, the Falcons’ offensive play-caller, seems to have carried over some lessons from his time under Sean McVay as Atlanta ran exclusively out of 11 personnel on Monday night against the Eagles. Fortunately, London leads Atlanta in first-read target share, per Fantasy Points, a full 10 percent ahead of McCloud. Furthermore, Mooney’s target profile is much further downfield than London’s, so I don’t expect him to cannibalize his targets more than normal. I think McCloud is around to stay, but I’m also buying London’s talent will eventually shine through.
Tight End Usage
- At first, you had my curiosity, but now you have my attention, Mike Gesicki. On Sunday, the Bengals’ free-agent addition tight end recorded a team-high nine targets and now leads the team on the season with 13 total targets. A small size albeit, but that’s what we’re dealing with two weeks into the season. This could have been a specific game-plan mismatch the Bengals saw or it could have been because Tee Higgins missed his second-straight game. But, it’s also just the third time in Joe Burrow‘s 54-game career that he’s targeted a tight end nine times in a game (Hayden Hurst in Week 12 of 2022 and Drew Sample in Week 2 of 2020). The concerning part of Gesicki’s profile is that he’s run a route on 46% and 51% of the team’s dropbacks in each of the first two weeks, respectively.
- I, admittedly, was on Jonnu Smith this offseason, simply because Miami’s pass-catcher depth behind Hill and Waddle was thin and I wanted to tie myself to the Dolphins’ offense. On Thursday night, Smith had a solid night, posting six receptions on seven targets for 53 yards. Quarterback situation aside, this is one situation I don’t think is sustainable. Out of 139 qualified players, Smith’s 3.6-yard ADOT ranks 100th overall with just four tight ends recording a shorter ADOT than him. This also came in a game where the Dolphins played a Bills defense that prefers to allow short-area targets and prevent deep passes. This is a spike week I’m fading right now.
Quick Hops
- De’Von Achane has 8 and 10 high-value touches in the first two games of the season, and Mike McDaniel has talked about wanting to get him even more work. You absolutely love to see it.
- There are currently eight running backs who have earned at least 20 opportunities in each of his team’s first two games: Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Rhamondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara, Tony Pollard, Breece Hall, James Conner, and Jordan Mason.
- Among 97 wide receivers who have run at least 30 routes this season, Malik Nabers‘ 33% targets per route run rate ranks second behind only Cooper Kupp. I’m still worried about who is throwing to Nabers and he won’t get to play the Commanders every week, but this level of usage makes him, at worst, a high-end WR2 for the rest of the season.
- Cade Otton has run a route on 93% of Tampa Bay’s dropbacks so far this season, yet he’s only earned four total targets. Most of the work is commandeered by the receivers and Rachaad White, but his usage is one that I’m monitoring closely.
