Hello and welcome to the Week 2 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy football points per game to his receiving expected fantasy football points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy football points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Hello and welcome to the Week 2 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit and waiver decisions or betting picks (some of which I’ll provide myself). There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.
Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to target players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them.
- Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team’s average plays per game to its pace over expected, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (running plays faster than expected) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
- Team Pass Rates: Compares a team’s pass rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn’t a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
- Running Back Usage: Compares rushing expected fantasy football points per game to his receiving expected fantasy football points per game, with the size of the player’s point as his snap percentage. I use expected fantasy football points as a measure of one’s workload in that specific area of the game, so it can help us discern which players are getting strong rushing or receiving workloads.
- Wide Receiver & Tight End Usage: Compares a player’s weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his routes run rate (as a percent of the team’s dropbacks), with the size of the player’s point as yards per route run (YPRR). WOPR weighs both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player’s opportunity with routes run as another measure of how often he’s on the field to identify which players are running routes but not getting usage. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.
Fantasy Football Trends & Takeaways
Team Pace and Plays
- The Colts are going to be a fascinating watch and, perhaps, one of the more boom-or-bust teams in the league. Indianapolis ran a league-low 44 offensive plays in Week 1 – in over 2,000 team games since 2020, that’s tied for the 12th fewest by a team in a single game. Yet, they scored 27 points and had over 300 yards of offense! Anthony Richardson also had a 16.4-yard (!!!) average depth of target. With a faster pace-of-play — they ranked sixth-fastest in pace over expected in Week 1 — the Colts are going to introduce a ton of variance into weekly results. From a fantasy football perspective, I would move down the Colts skill players slightly, knowing that they’ll provide more value as flex players than reliable weekly starters. From a betting perspective, though, I would target alternate lines for yardage and scoring props and take advantage of the tail outcomes the Colts could provide.
- Action: consider Colts skill players boom-or-bust
Team Pass Rates
- The Buffalo Bills trailed the Cardinals 17-3 with two minutes left in the first half, yet Josh Allen had only attempted three passes up until then (he was also sacked twice). This is on-brand with a larger approach that the Bills have taken since Joe Brady became the team’s playcaller. In the 10 games that Brady has called plays, Buffalo has a positive PROE in just three. An interesting strategy given you have one of the top three quarterbacks in the league! This, unfortunately, does not bode well for the fantasy football prospect of Buffalo pass catchers as volume will continue to be low. In addition to volume being low, the Bills also had the least concentrated passing attack in Week 1 with just one player earning a target share over 13%. Until we see more volume from this offense, I find it tough to trust anyone involved in the passing game (outside of Allen) in my starting lineup.
- Action: sit all Bills pass catchers
Running Back Usage
- If I had a nickel for every time I thought Bijan Robinson was a buy low, I’d have close to fifty cents. But, I promise, this time is different! Now, how can a 1st-round pick be a buy low? Well, Robinson was not at all efficient on the ground, averaging 3.8 yards per carry and rushing for nine fewer yards than expected, per Next Gen Stats. Not to mention, the Falcons’ offense as a whole was putrid on Sunday, failing to get inside the Pittsburgh 30-yard line on all but two of the team’s 10 drives. The biggest reason I’m even proclaiming Bijan as a buy is that he was on the field the most that he’s ever been in a game (Arthur Smith would never). His 89% snap share was the highest single-game rate of his career, while backup Tyler Allgeier didn’t top a 20% snap rate. It may be tough sledding for another couple of weeks as Atlanta faces the Eagles and Chiefs, but hopefully, Kirk Cousins will continue to get healthier and raise Bijan to the ceiling we expect.
- Despite having a bottom-tier offense, the Broncos offer one of the more valuable backfields in fantasy football. With the way Sean Payton designs plays and the check-down nature of Bo Nix‘s playing style, a strong workload will be there for Denver running backs. The two primary backs, Jaleel McLaughlin and Javonte Williams, shared some interesting usage. Williams, with a 52% snap share, out-snapped McLaughlin, who played just 35% of the team’s snaps. However, it was McLaughlin who earned 56% of the backfield touches compared to just 33% for Williams. So, when McLaughlin was on the field, he was used at a much higher rate than Williams was. Right now, it seems like these two are in a 1A/1B situation (I’ll let you determine who is who), so if it remains this condensed I’m willing to buy into both, praying that the efficiency rises as Nix learns the offense better.
- The Las Vegas Raiders are another AFC West team with a less-than-stellar offense and an ambiguous backfield. For much of this offseason, Antonio Pierce talked up Zamir White as the feature back for the Raiders. While White did get 13 of the team’s 18 carries, he played on just 38% of the team’s snaps in a game that featured a neutral game script for the majority of the afternoon. New free agent acquisition Alexander Mattison led the way with a 60% snap share and an impressive 60% routes run rate. It seems as though the role that Pierce was referring to for Mattison was that of being the passing-down back. If that’s the case, then Mattison is a priority add for me as Vegas is sure to see plenty of negative game scripts throughout the season.
Wide Receiver Usage
- One of the major offseason storylines was the Texans trading for Stefon Diggs and how he would fit into a wide receiver trio that also included stud Nico Collins and second-year player Tank Dell. Diggs’ usage has been a big talking point because he had just a 1.6-yard aDOT on six targets. That’s concerning because his his fantasy football day was saved by two touchdowns while Dell and Collins both had aDOTs over 15 yards that could have allowed for more explosive plays. But here’s the thing, all three of the aforementioned receivers ran a route on over 80% of the team’s dropbacks while no other wide receiver (just Dalton Schultz) was above a 25% rate — that concentration is what we dream of! I think it’s foolish to expect all three of them to have monster fantasy performances or have the exact same type of usage every week, so you’ll just have to take your lumps. But, CJ Stroud offers each of them such a massive weekly upside that I don’t want to see go off on my bench.
- Action: hold and start all Texans wide receivers
- Welcome (finally) to the league, Jameson Williams! While Williams has had some highlight plays in the past, the third-year receiver had his true breakout game in Week 1 against the Rams. Williams set career-high marks in targets (9) and receiving yards (121) while tying his career-high receptions (5) in a game. The target numbers and routes run (97% rate was also a career-high) are a sign that this likely isn’t a fluke and Williams may have finally cemented himself as Detroit’s clear-cut WR2. He also played well as a run blocker, which should buy him more snaps overall. Finally, with a 14.4-yard aDOT, Williams could have some ups and downs. But, it’s also noteworthy because he’ll also be operating in a much different part of the field than both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, so they won’t cannibalize each other quite as much. I’m all-in.
- Year two of the Bryce Young experiment is not off to a great start. The thesis behind trading for Diontae Johnson was to get Young a receiver that could separate and make for easier throws. Regrettably, Johnson averaged just 2.6 yards of separation per target, and no Panthers receiver was in the top half of the league in average separation in Week 1 (per Next Gen Stats). The usage and participation for Johnson, Xavier Legette, Adam Thielen, and Jonathan Mingo isn’t there, either, as none of them eclipsed a 75% routes run rate (though maybe that was due to getting blown out). I don’t see the upside case right now and I’d be looking for other options elsewhere.
Tight End Usage
- Unfortunately, our beloved Puka Nacua is being sent to Injured Reserve for re-aggravating his knee injury from this offseason. One of the primary beneficiaries will be Rams tight end Colby Parkinson, who was one of ten tight ends to run a route on more than 80% of his team’s dropbacks to open the season. While Cooper Kupp hogged most of the work, Parkinson was still targeted five times and posted a solid 29 yards after the catch, the third-most for a tight end in Week 1. Kupp will continue to be Stafford’s number-one target, but Parkinson should slot right in with the rest of the group as a solid secondary option.
- I believe there are better days ahead for Evan Engram. While he was only targeted four times, that was tied for the most on the Jaguars on Sunday. My reason for optimism stems from the fact that Lawrence only threw the ball 21 times, tied for the fewest attempts he’s had in a single game in his career. For some reason, Jacksonville turtled and abandoned the pass in the second half, so I’m confident that more volume will come down the road.
Quick Hops
- Only one running back handled 100% of his team’s backfield (non-quarterback) carries in Week 1: Jonathan Taylor.
- Per Next Gen Stats, Josh Jacobs recorded 38 rushing yards over expected (3rd-most in Week 1). He’ll get to face a Colts team in Week 2 that just allowed Joe Mixon to run for 159 total yards.
- With Christian McCaffrey out on Monday night, Deebo Samuel matched his career high with eight rushing attempts.
- Jalen McMillan is a name to keep an eye on (and someone to stash if you have bench space). He ran a route on 30 of Tampa Bay’s 34 dropbacks. He was only targeted three times, but he offers elite contingent value if one of Chris Godwin or Mike Evans were to get injured.
- There were three tight ends in all of Week 1 that earned more than five total targets: Isaiah Likely, Trey McBride, Brock Bowers.
- Luke Musgrave was consistently being drafted ahead of teammate Tucker Kraft this offseason. However, in Week 1, Kraft ran more routes (30) than Musgrave (8) and earned one more target than him.
