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Fantasy Football Trade Advice: Week 4
Players to Buy
Brock Bowers (our last hope at TE) contributed 41 yards on 3 catches and 4 targets, and Davante Adams added 40 yards on 4 receptions from 9 targets. Bowers had his lowest route participation (59%) in this game. Buy low. When asked about his quarterback, head coach Antonio Pierce told reporters he’s not ruled out a quarterback change. He also said there could be some personnel changes based on ‘business decisions” some players made in Week 3’s loss. Are we about to go down a Davante Adams trade demands cycle?
Stay tuned. Las Vegas will face the Browns, Broncos, and Steelers over the next three weeks.
In the ground game, Kyler Murray led with 45 rushing yards on 5 attempts, while James Conner was limited to 17 yards on 9 carries. Trey Benson had just 2 carries for 8 yards. Conner had one catch for 8 yards. It was a tough matchup for Conner, and this was his worst of outcomes. However, he is still a bell cow and should rebound in a favorable spot at home in Week 4.
Stefon Diggs was the Texans’ leading receiver, seeing 29% of the targets (12) and catching 10 passes for 94 yards. And unlike in previous weeks, Diggs finally was used downfield with 93 air yards. Any chance you can get to buy low on any of these WRs, you take advantage. The Jaguars’ defense is easy to beat through the air rather than on the ground. And who can pass up rostering Diggs in an upcoming ‘revenge’ game against Buffalo in Week 6?
Amari Cooper was the primary target, commanding 32.4% of the target share (12 targets), hauling in 7 catches for 86 yards and scoring 2 touchdowns. He saw 128 air yards and FINALLY converted it into production. Trust the process folks. And note that if you have been dealing with Cooper’s ups and downs, NOW is the time to get off the ride if you so choose. However, Deshaun Watson has shown the ability to at least support one pass-catcher per week, and it will usually be Cooper.
The Browns will play the Raiders in Las Vegas, followed by Commanders, and Eagles. Three-bottom 10 pass defenses. Hold the Cooper LINE if you want to keep the roller coaster ride going.
Jayden Reed was the most targeted player, securing four of six targets for 50 yards (32% target share). he Packers had to transform their identity on offense when Jordan Love got hurt. But he is expected to return in Week 5, and that makes all Packers WRs great buy-low targets. Reed is my favorite, as he looks like the clear target leader in the offense (team-high 21% target share). The Packers will play the Vikings, Rams, and Cardinals in their next three contests.
Jameson Williams had one catch for 9 yards on 3 targets. Williams is sitting on five red-zone targets but still hasn’t scored a red-zone TD.
Sam LaPorta was carted into the locker room before halftime. Dealing with an ankle injury post Week 3. Diagnosed as a low-ankle sprain. In his absence, expect Brock Wright (69% snap share) to pick up the slack. Given the bye week in Week 5, very possible LaPorta misses.
If LaPorta misses time, Williams will be able to continue his production from Weeks 1-2. Buy low. He ranks sixth in air yards this season.
The Chargers’ ground game was spearheaded by J.K. Dobbins, who carried the ball 15 times for 44 yards but failed to find the end zone. Gus Edwards chipped in with 3 carries for 9 yards. Disappointing day for Dobbins, but he earned all the yardage available in the tough matchup. He also caught three targets for 10 yards. Joe Alt also left the game late with an injury of sorts.
I guarantee the Dobbins manager is in full panic now. But here’s where you can buy low. Because even though the yardage wasn’t great, the rushing share was heavily favoring Dobbins over Edwards. Keep in mind that the carry totals were 27 (Dobbins) and 29 (Edwards) entering Week 3.
Dobbins hit a season-high 65% snap share in Week 3.
Rashid Shaheed was targeted five times but goose-egged. He was close to a couple of big plays/scores, but Week 3 was not his day. He still accumulated over 100 air yards with a 53% air yards share. Buy low. The Eagles weren’t the zone-heavy matchup fantasy managers wanted Shaheed in. The Falcons – 11th in zone coverage per FantasyPoints Data Suite – is the spot for a major bounce back. They rank top-5 in Cover 3 and 31st in pressure rate. The exact recipe for Derek Carr-Shaheed bounce-back effort.
Anthony Richardson threw for 167 yards on 10/20 passing (50% completion), with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Richardson finished with a passer rating of 39.9. He fell just short of the goal line on two separate occasions, which killed his fantasy value in this matchup. One of the biggest issues with the Colts is the severe lack of plays run. They can’t get opposing offenses off the field because their run defense is so bad. And when they get on offense, their QB can’t string together drives based on his limitations as a passer. The Colts are last in time of possession (21:36) and in plays per game (50). 30 minutes/60 plays per game is the league average. The Colts need high-scoring game environments to unlock this passing game. Week 5 at Jacksonville is promising, but it gets grim again with the Titans. Miami and the Texans represent solid spots for him to be a fantasy producer Weeks 7-8. As for Anthony Richardson, he’s going through some Justin Fields-level growing pains as an NFL quarterback. Like I said before, he was very close to two rushing TDs and rushed for a season-high eight carries in Week 3. Last week was the combination of no TDs and horrible interceptions that are leaving fantasy managers pissed. But that’s why he’s a buy-low. You can easily acquire a quarterback with a top-5 upside (see Week 1) for next to nothing. Buy low, and stash him on your bench.
Devin Singletary led the rushing attack with 16 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown, including a long run of 43 yards to ice the game. He should have scored, but he stopped just short of the goal line. Singletary showed his versatility, adding 43 receiving yards on 4 catches. 68% snap rate for a low-key bell cow. However, it does seem like Tyrone Tracy could push Singletary in some capacity. But with Dallas, Seattle, Cincinnati and Philadelphia the upcoming stretch, Singletary might be a sharp buy-low without the price tag attached.
Tank Dell had 14% of the targets (six), securing five catches for 62 yards. Dell had a pair of red-zone targets during the game but did not score. He is also dealing with a rib injury. Dell has struggled to emerge from the crowded Texans WR room with just a 16% target rate per route run.
Dell and Nico Collins are a combined 0-for-7 on red-zone TD conversion rate. Diggs has caught two of his three red-zone targets for TDs.
Any chance you can get to buy low on any of these WRs, you take advantage. The Jaguars’ defense is easy to beat through the air rather than on the ground.
Jerome Ford led the rushing attack, carrying the ball 10 times for 37 yards. Watson also chipped in 26 rushing yards on 4 carries, while D’Onta Foreman added 2 carries for 5 yards. But Foreman’s usage reverted back to Week 1, where he played 16% of the snaps to Ford’s 79%. Ford was also active in the passing game, catching all 3 of his 4 targets (10.8% target share) for 33 yards. Ford has to be the buy here given the upside he has with such a full workload (aside from goal line usage). I do think it’s smart to not just flat-out drop Foreman, given the Browns will hardly be viewed as massive underdogs against either the Raiders or Commanders the next two weeks.
Overall, when the Browns trail, it’s Ford. If they are winning it’s Foreman. Ford has a 70% or higher snap share in two of three games this season. Both losses.
In the passing game, rookie Ladd McConkey led with 25% of the target share (six), catching three passes for 44 yards. Quentin Johnston saw just 8% of the targets (two) and turned his limited opportunities into 44 yards and a touchdown where he was wide-open. He can only catch so many wide-open touchdowns folks.
McConkey meanwhile, ranks 15th in target share at 26%.
Rookie Braelon Allen led the rushing game with 11 carries for 55 yards, while Breece Hall added 54 yards on 16 attempts and a rushing touchdown. Allen looked like an absolute bulldozer, shaking off tacklers with ease. Per Next Gen Stats, the Patriots missed more tackles against the Jets (13) than they did in the first two weeks of the season combined (11).
Both RBs caught passes, with Hall going four for 29 yards on five targets, versus Allen’s three catches for 13 yards (three targets).
Understandably, there is panic about Allen’s immediate impact on Hall’s fantasy upside. While I do agree with this hurting Hall’s weekly ceiling, Hall can still be a top-five RB for the rest of the season. He remains super involved in the passing game, and the Jets offense is creating opportunities for TDs compared to last season. Fantasy managers should be satisfied enough if splitting touches save Hall for the long haul.
Denver’s another solid matchup for both RBs to find running room. They’ve been a bottom-10 defense versus RBs as rushers and receivers this season.
Cordarrelle Patterson (RB – PIT)
Cordarrelle Patterson added 33 rushing yards on 4 carries, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Jaylen Warren was limited to just 5 yards on 3 carries. Harris caught all 5 of his targets for 16 yards. Warren had one catch for -4 yards. Patterson also earned five targets for three catches and 15 yards. Warren was seen limping after the game. It’s a knee injury. Not good. We could see Patterson take on the Warren receiving role if the latter misses time.
Patterson could see an even bigger role as a rusher in Week 4 given that Harris has his arm in a sling.
Josh Downs contributed with a 25% target share (five) and caught three passes for 22 yards. Mo Alie-Cox, Ashton Dulin, and Adonai Mitchell were also targeted once each, with no receptions.
Downs returned to a full-time role (72% route participation) while Pierce/Pittman remained staples on every down. Mitchell’s role tanked (9% route participation) in Downs’ return. He can be dropped in shallower formats.
The Steelers are “the” pass funnel defense. Downs saw a strong target share in his first game back. Add him if you need a WR play in Week 4. The second-year WR was targeted on 31% of his routes in Week 3 – same as Michael Pittman Jr.
Rookie Tracy Tracy Jr. chipped in with 23 rushing yards on five carries, and Daniel Jones added another 20 yards rushing. Tracy was involved early out of the backfield playing 31% of the snaps (season-high) with two catches in the first half. Note that in the first half, Tracy rushed four times for 18 yards compared to Singletary’s six for three carries. Ahead of a matchup versus Dallas, you aren’t looking to get out of Singletary. But if someone is willing to trade an arm and a leg for Singletary (a JAG running back for the majority of his career), this would be the perfect opportunity to sell high. Tracy’s routes have increased for three straight games.
The Patriots were unable to score through the air, with their top receiver being DeMario Douglas, who caught seven of his nine targets (39% target share) for 69 yards. Expect heavy passing volume, albeit with not much efficiency in Week 4. The 49ers are allowing the 6th-most fantasy points through the air versus 15th on the ground.
Players to Sell
Kyren Williams led the rushing attack with 24 carries for 89 yards and two scores, while Ronnie Rivers chipped in with nine yards on two carries. Williams played 90% of the snaps.
Williams also had two catches for 27 yards (two targets) and another TD. He received 10 carries inside the 20-yard mark. It was an unbelievable effort from the Rams RB, akin to a lot of his production last season. Still the long-term outlook with the Rams is concerning given the status of the OL. I think the safe move is to just cash out after a three-TD game that could easily be Williams’ peak performance of 2024. The Bears defense on the road could be a much tougher challenge. The Rams will face the Bears and Packers before a Week 6 bye. And Williams has not been efficient as a rusher this season. He’s in the bottom 10 in rushing yards above expectation per attempt (-0.9) this season.
LA desperately needs the bye week to get their roster healthy and closer to full strength.
On the receiving end, rookie Rome Odunze led the team with 21% of the targets (11), hauling in six receptions for 112 yards. But the rookie could have had an even BIGGER day. 234 air yards. His stats were boosted by the sheer volume Caleb Williams was pumping out. 52 attempts is not the norm. I hate to be the one that is bearish in a rookie WR breakout (especially for a top-10 pick) but this one game will be hard to duplicate. Three Bears WRs saw double-digit targets, without Keenan Allen available.
Therefore the move might be to just hold onto Odunze and instead sell D.J. Moore. Moore saw just 19.2% of the target share (10) with eight receptions for 78 yards (three red-zone targets). Again his final box score is boosted heavily by the Hail Mary grab. Sell high. And if it’s not this week you can get a strong return, wait until AFTER they play the Rams and their 32nd-ranked pass defense.
On the ground, Bucky Irving took the lead in rushing with 70 yards on 9 carries (7.8 yards per carry), but he didn’t find the end zone. Rachaad White added 17 rushing yards on 6 carries while playing a massive 74% snap share. He was also stuffed at the 1-yard line which would have salvaged his fantasy day.
Irving’s snaps were relatively the same as the last two weeks (32%). Despite White’s struggles, the team has not reduced his snaps. However, this will likely change going forward. Todd Bowles has seen enough White rush attempts to realize Irving needs more carries. White still has value in PPR as a pass-catcher, but his rushing can’t be relied on. And Irving isn’t a zero in the passing game either.
On the ground, Tyler Badie led the rushing attack, carrying the ball nine times for 70 yards, including a long run of 43 yards. Jaleel McLaughlin (five for seven yards and one TD) and Javonte Williams (five for 12) combined for 19 yards on 10 carries (51% snap rate).
McLaughlin replaced Williams on attempts inside the 5-yard line after Williams failed to score (although it looked like he broke the plane but he did not credit for the score). Williams finished with two attempts inside the 5-yard line. He also lost a fumble. Williams had one carry after that fumble.
At least he did catch all four of his passes for 29 yards. McLaughlin only had one target on a 26% snap share.
Badie flashed a bit last week and showed out again in Week 3. Expect his snaps to increase in Week 4. He played 19% of the snaps against Tampa Bay. It’s not so much that he was used early but that he was GOOD. He ripped off a 43-yard run in the fourth quarter as Denver was looking to eat the clock.
In the rushing game, Roschon Johnson led the team with eight carries for 30 yards, followed by D’Andre Swift, who rushed 13 times for 20 yards. Khalil Herbert contributed nine yards on four carries. Part of his lack of efficiency is based on where he is seeing carries. Herbie has been strictly used as the Bears’ short-yardage back. All of Herbert’s red-zone attempts were inside the 5-yard line. But he only played 10% of the snaps.
Swift did have two red-zone carries in this contest. For negative eight yards. Woof. To make matters worse for Swift, Johnson was active (Travis Homer inactive), allowing RJ to see two red-zone carries as well. Johnson played 37% of the snaps in his season debut. Re-watching this game, you could barely tell Swift is the “starter.” He had another drop as well, while Johnson was soaking up targets in the second half. Those points still count.
It’s beyond over for Swift at this point. If he couldn’t get it done in this layup matchup, it’s not going to happen for him in 2024. Sell LOW.
In the passing game, DeAndre Hopkins led the team with 73 yards and a touchdown on six receptions from seven targets and one TD, accounting for a 21% target share. Hopkins only ran a route on 50% of the dropbacks (same as Week 2) as the Titans limit the veteran’s snaps. If managers in your league believe this is his renaissance performance, sell high. Trusting any receiver (let alone one playing limited snaps) in this Titans passing offense is not something I’d recommend. If you can flip Hopkins for Calvin Ridley straight up, pull the trigger. The Titans will play the Dolphins in Week 4 followed by a Week 5 bye week.
On the ground, Zamir White took 10 carries for 34 yards (10 short of Antonio Pierce’s goal), but struggled to find much room, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Minshew added 14 rushing yards on 3 carries. Alexander Mattison had the goal-line carry (again) leaving White with nothing to show for a great matchup. Zero targets to Mattison’s 3 for 37 yards.
White played just 22% of the snaps. As an early two-down back on a bad offense that the team takes OUT at the goal line, White has virtually no use. He played 14 snaps (less than his 14.5 rushing attempts prop).
Mattison played 44% of the snaps, and is the better option rest of season.
Allen Lazard corralled three receptions on three targets (9% target share), 48 yards and one touchdown in Week 3. He’s been the TD guy for Rodgers, but it might not last with so many other playmakers. Would be looking to sell high.
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