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Fantasy Football Trade Advice
Players to Buy
Bijan Robinson led the ground game, rushing 18 times for 68 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry, with a long run of 13 yards. Tyler Allgeier chipped in with 21 yards on three carries, also with a long of 13 yards, while Cousins had one rush for no gain. Robinson handled the lone carry inside the 10. Robinson was more effective in the passing game as well, catching all 5 of his targets for 43 yards representing 19% of the team’s target share. Regardless, he was a bell cow with an 89% snap rate. Allgeier sat at a lowly 13%. It was the first time Robinson surpassed an 80% snap share per Next Gen Stats. As the Falcons’ schedule eases up look for Robinson to be a major benefactor.
In the passing game, Ja’Marr Chase was Burrow’s most reliable target, catching 6 of 6 passes for 62 yards, with 24 yards after the catch (YAC), leading the team with a 21% target share. He ran a route on 89% of dropbacks a slight dip from last season. Makes sense given his missed time this offseason. The Bengals are notorious for starting slow in September, so I’d buy low on their No. 1 WR after a disastrous Week 1 contest. This was Chase’s first action in awhile and he didn’t kill lineups despite the concerns about his availability.
Jonathan Taylor was the workhorse in the backfield (96% snap rate), rushing 16 times for 48 yards and scoring a key rushing touchdown, though he was largely held in check with an average of 3.0 yards per carry and a long run of 7 yards. That Texans run defense is no joke. But who’s run defense is a joke? The Packers. Buy low on JT. Both JT and A-Rich earned red-zone touches, with Taylor edging out his QB 4-2 in the red zone.
In the running game, Jeff Wilson led the Dolphins with 26 yards on five carries, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, including a long run of 14 yards. De’Von Achane saw more action with 10 carries but managed only 24 yards, averaging 2.4 yards per carry. Despite the modest rushing total, Achane found the end zone on the ground, scoring a rushing touchdown. Raheem Mostert struggled to gain much ground, rushing for just 9 yards on six carries. Mostert had zero red-zone opportunities. Seemed like the coaching staff went to Wilson to spark the ground game late in the 4th quarter. But more importantly, Achane was super involved as a receiver. Achane made a significant impact in the passing game as well, catching all 7 of his targets for 76 yards (twice in the red zone), with an eye-popping 103 YAC, proving his versatility as a dual-threat back. Essentially he operated as the Dolphins’ 3rd WR with a 32% target rate. He did take a big hit toward the end of the game so monitor his injury status.
Tank Bigsby was the standout in the backfield, rushing for 73 yards on 12 carries, including a 26-yard run, averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per carry. Travis Etienne also saw 12 carries but found less success, managing 44 yards at 3.7 yards per carry, with a long run of 11 yards. He scored and came close to a second TD but fumbled it through the end zone for a touchback. But Etienne earned all the red-zone carries for Jacksonville (4). He still has a stranglehold on the high-value touches in the Jaguars backfield and overall work (70% snap share). Give credit to Bigsby, who looked nothing like his rookie self. Definitely will be seeing a decent chunk of the carries in Jacksonville this season. Bigsby played 32% of the snaps. Still I don’t think Etienne’s RB1 role is in jeopardy. Would buy low from a panicked manager
Mark Andrews was a non-factor in the opener, catching two passes for 14 yards on two targets (5% target share). It was one if not the worst performance Andrews has had in the NFL. And it’s why he’s such a great buy-low target. He was blanketed and double-covered constantly, in a horrible matchup against a Steve Spangulo defense that has shut down Andrews every single time they have played. In 5 games versus the Chiefs, Andrews has gone over 22 yards and three catches once with zero TDs in all contests.
Nico Collins led the way with 6 catches on 8 targets (25% target share) for 117 yards, including 18 yards after the catch (YAC). Posted a team-high 27% target rate while finishing third in routes run (84%). Also led the Texans in air yards at 130 and air yards share (49%).
What I might have overlooked in my Collins fade this offseason was the fact that he actually broke last season. Again, he was being drafted behind players that were all projection. Collins certainly had ambiguity regarding targets, etc., but I’m not sure how much more of the talent we need to see from him to be convinced he’s just going to be a great WR in this offense. He’s a human highlight reel.
Consider this stat from Next Gen Stats: Stroud’s 55-yard pass to Nico Collins had a completion probability of 16.6%, Stroud’s most improbable completion his NFL career.
I’m sure Collins won’t always be the most consistent receiver in the Texans offense, but he the highs he can deliver (like Week 1) make it worth it. Buy high.
James Conner provided the bulk of the groundwork, rushing 16 times for 50 yards, including a 20-yard burst, and scoring a crucial rushing touchdown. Conner handled three carries inside the 10-yard line as well. Trey Benson added 13 yards on just three carries. Conner also contributed to the passing game, catching 3 of 4 targets for 33 yards, showcasing his ability as a dual-threat back. This pass-game usage was lacking for Conner last season, so it’s encouraging to see his receiving role increased. With a great matchup on deck versus the Rams run defense, expect the Cardinals to keep feeding Conner.
Rashee Rice emerged as Mahomes’ top target in Week 1, catching 7 of 9 targets for 103 yards, with an impressive 78 YAC. The second-year WR commanded a 32% target share while commanding all the short-underneath targets from Mahomes. Hard to see him not leading the Chiefs in all receiving categories for the 2024 season.
On the ground, Josh Jacobs led the rushing attack with 84 yards on 16 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt with five inside the red zone. Jacobs ran into a stacked box on just 6.3% of his carries. Last season this number was at 21.5%. If the Packers are forcing defenses into light boxes with their talented pass-catching group, we will continue to see an efficient Jacobs churn out yardage. Buy. Well, at least that was the case before Jordan Love went down. More to come.
We know that Matt LaFleur wants to use multiple backs, so the split between Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson wasn’t too surprising. Still, Jacobs got pseudo bell cow usage with a 73% snap share and 18 touches to Wilson’s 24% and 6 touches. Only one time last season did a Packers RB see a 73% or higher snap share. It’s happened just three times over the last two seasons. A mobile QB under center might open up more lanes for Jacobs. And the matchup in Week 2 is divine versus the Colts’ run defense. In Malik Willis we trust.
Jordan Love is expected to miss somewhere between 3-4 weeks, as the Packers did not put him on IR. However, LaFleur isn’t ruling him out of this week, although this seems like just gamesmanship than anything set in reality. Malik Willis will start in his place. Willis joined the Packers on August 26th in a trade for a 7th-round pick. Love’s go-to receiver in Week 1 was Jayden Reed, who was explosive throughout the game. Reed caught 4 of 6 targets for 138 yards, including a massive 57 yards after the catch (YAC) and a highlight-reel 33-yard touchdown. Reed showed his versatility, adding a 33-yard run for a touchdown on his only rushing attempt. Reed commanded over 100 air yards and ran a route on 73% of the dropbacks. As for what managers need to do in the Packers QB situation… For me, it’s still to buy Reed. Through Week 1, he leads the NFL in receiving yards (not counting MNF). Not saying this is sustainable, but it’s just a reminder of how great Reed is as a player. He is the “scheme touch” player in the Packers offense. I’m less concerned about his production with a backup QB. He might not even have to be someone you need to start anyway. The Love injury has opened a buying window for Reed. Take advantage.
Isaiah Likely was the standout in the receiving game, catching 9 of 12 targets (29% target share) for 111 yards, including a significant 72 yards after the catch (YAC). He was targeted thrice in the red zone.
And he’s not “Likely” going away this season. That is a fact that I feel strongly about. All offseason, I can recall the beat reports claiming how great Likely looked and how he and Jackson were building great chemistry.
Baker Mayfield had a career day, leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a commanding offensive performance in Week 1. Mayfield completed 24 of 30 passes for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns, finishing with a stellar 146.4 passer rating, as the Buccaneers offense clicked from start to finish. The Bucs cornerbacks were devasted by injuries in this contest, setting them up for another shootout versus the Lions in Week 2. That, along with more favorable matchups, makes Mayfield a priority QB target this week.
Quarterback Geno Smith completed 18 of 25 passes for 171 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 87.2. Ryan Grubb’s new offense was highlighted by Smith getting rid of the ball quickly. Smith got the ball out quickly, averaging his third quickest time to throw (2.54 seconds) since joining the Seahawks in 2019 versus the Broncos. They also used motion on 79% of their offensive plays – a stark increase from 53% in 2023. The Seattle Seahawks will head to New England in Week 2. Not the best matchup for a shootout. But Weeks 3 & 4. Let’s go. Matchups against the Dolphins and Lions.
Players to Sell
Kyren Williams led the ground attack, rushing 18 times for 50 yards and a touchdown, while playing 91% of the offensive snaps. He was the focal point of the backfield, contributing in both the running and passing games. Ronnie Rivers, not Blake Corum (who played 0% of the snaps), served as the RB2, rushing two times for 16 yards. However, Williams struggled with his efficiency, posting 2.8 yards per carry and -1.1 rushing yards per attempt over expectation. The Rams will play at Arizona (shootout on deck) in Week 2. They might be undermanned given the vast amount of injuries they suffered in Week 1 from WR Puka Nacua, tackle Joseph Noteboom, G/C Steve Avila and OL Kevin Dotson. Head coach Sean McVay has already stated the team will look for offensive line help. I’m selling Williams high off the snap share alone. This OL mess could be problematic, and I don’t expect Corum to be a total zero for the rest of the season.
Cooper Kupp was the focal point in the passing game, receiving a whopping 21 targets (43% target share), catching 14 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown (158 air yards and 54% air yards share). He played nearly every snap running a route on 98% of the dropbacks while commanding three red-zone targets. With Puka Nacua out, Kupp is slated for a billion targets. But how sustainable are 20-plus targets per game for a 31-year-old WR? Not to mention, Nacua will likely return at some point and the Rams OL is dealing with major injuries. At this moment, Kupp’s value may never be higher. Sell for the farm.
On the ground, Bucky Irving led the rushing attack with 62 yards on nine carries, including a 31-yard burst, averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Rachaad White struggled to find running lanes, managing just 31 yards on 15 carries (long of 15 yards), while Mayfield added 21 rushing yards on three scrambles. The Buccaneers starter still played 70% of the snaps to Irving’s 31%. The White/Irving split is somewhat concerning. White saw a 70% snap share or less one time last season. And it was in a game where he struggled immensely as a rusher averaging fewer than 2 yards per carry. Irving steps in immediately as a rookie and excels rushing in the new scheme orchestrated by new OC Liam Coen. Irving was handpicked by Coen during the NFL Draft as a plan to lessen White’s workload. And rookie RBs (especially Day 3 picks) don’t usually play this much in Week 1. White’s pass-catching is still top-notch, but his continued struggles as a rusher are hard to ignore.
Given that Irving is my favorite RB to target off waivers this week, it makes me hesitant on White long-term. Don’t think he goes to zero due to the receiving, but the carries could shift dramatically if Irving is just more efficient in this rushing scheme. Keep in mind that other than being undersized and not overly athletic, Irving was a talented RB prospect from Oregon. His 3.11 yards per play rank in the top five in the class.
Jalen Hurts led the Eagles offense, completing 20 of 34 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 80.3. Hurts also contributed on the ground, rushing 13 times for 33 yards, averaging 2.5 yards per carry. The only “concern” about Hurts was his lack of rushing TDs in this contest. The loss of center Jason Kelce was apparent on several plays, so fantasy managers need to temper expectations on the 15 rushing TDs he scored a year ago.
Jaleel McLaughlin carried the ball 10 times but only managed 27 yards, while Javonte Williams had eight carries for 23 yards (52% snap share). Seattle stacked the box on 50% of Williams’ rushing attempts. Audric Estime contributed 14 yards on two carries (fumbled), including a long run of 12 yards. Williams started, but McLaughlin was involved throughout. Both guys were used in the red zone (although Denver wasn’t there much).
The ground attack for Denver was abysmal in Week 1 versus Seatle. Doesn’t help that LT Garrett Bolles was also injured during the game. Estime’s fumble has bought more time for Williams as the starter, but the lack of juice from the Broncos’ run game and overall offense is very concerning. Williams only ran a route on 41% of the dropbacks while McLaughlin settled at 29%. The target rates were stark with McLaughlin seeing a 41% target rate to Williams’ 11%. Javonte’s lack of pass-game work is a red flag. With the upcoming schedule – PIT, @TB. @NYJ – I’m not sure Sean Payton will stay patient enough with Williams if he falters in any way, even through tougher matchups. More than happy to “sell low” amid what could be a tough stretch of games for Denver.
The star of the day was J.K. Dobbins, who dominated on the ground with 135 rushing yards on 10 carries, averaging an impressive 13.5 yards per carry, including a 61-yard touchdown run that showcased his explosiveness. Per Next Gen Stats, Dobbins posted a career-high +98 rushing yards over expected. He scored from the 12-yard line and led the backfield with a 58% snap share. Gus Edwards contributed with 26 rushing yards on 11 carries. Edwards had 3 red-zone carries to Dobbins’ 2. Dobbins had the lone carry from inside the 10. In the first half the carries/snaps favored Edwards, but Dobbins broke out in the second half. However, it should be noted that he was caught from behind on some of his long runs. Dobbins is explosive, but it’s clear that very top notch gear is still lacking due to all the lower body injuries. As somebody that was pounding the table for Dobbins all offseason (and for someone who is just happy to see him healthy), I am thrilled with Week 1. But I want to be realistic. As I discussed with @FBInjuryDoc, Edwin Porras, he suggested to me that Dobbins would start strong (see Week 1) but then fail to sustain production for the long haul. Pains me to write this, but as I loved Dobbins so much as a draft selection, the sharp move might be to cash out while you can. It’s possible Dobbins could have an outlier “Raheem Mostert 2023″ season, but that’s not practical. At least put him on the trade block and see what bites.
The Vikings had the fifth-hardest schedule entering 2024, but they had an easy start in Week 1. But that’s about as positive as it gets. Weeks 2-5 before their Week 6 bye week: Niners, Texans, Packers and Jets in London. Note that Darnold (versus the Giants) was pressured on 42% of his dropbacks. Darnold and pressure are not a match made in heaven.
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