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We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
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TL;DR Fantasy Football Week 4
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
Sam Darnold has been nothing short of amazing this season. He’s the QB4 in fantasy points per game, ranking fifth in yards per attempt, fourth in passer rating, ninth in Completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), and 12th in highly accurate throw rate. It’s amazing what a good coordinator and scheme can do for a player. Darnold is in the midst of reviving his NFL career. If you want a feel-good story each NFL season, Darnold’s should be front and center. Darnold should keep the feel-good train rolling down the tracks this week. The Packers’ pass defense has been exploitable this season. They have allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, the fifth-most passing touchdowns, the eighth-most passing yards per game, and the 12th-highest success rate per dropback.
Fantasy players knew Anthony Richardson would be one of the biggest boom-or-bust quarterbacks this season. He was outstanding in Week 1, totaling 26.1 fantasy points on nine pass completions and six rushing attempts. Unfortunately, the former Florida star has been awful the past two weeks, completing 50% of his pass attempts for 185.5 yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and 7.5 fantasy points per game. Richardson has five interceptions in the past two games against two elite defenses, averaging fewer fantasy points per dropback (0.34) than Deshaun Watson (0.4) and Will Levis (0.38).
While the second-year quarterback is a buy-low trade target, fantasy players should avoid starting him this week. After facing two elite defenses over the past two weeks, Richardson takes on the Steelers in Week 4. Pittsburgh has surrendered only 8.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the fewest in the NFL this season. They have allowed quarterbacks to total more than 155 passing yards in only one contest. Furthermore, Richardson likely won’t have much running success against the Steelers, as they have held quarterbacks to the fifth-fewest rushing yards this year.
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
Jerome Ford saw his workload diminish in Week 2 but bounced back to a 79% snap share in Week 3. That’s what we care about when evaluating Ford because that’s on par with what we saw in Week 1 and the final weeks of last season. That equates to over 50 snaps, with Ford averaging 13 fantasy points per game in the 10 outings he played over 35 snaps last season. He’s also been the goal-line back, making him an enticing option against Vegas. The Raiders have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing backs while surrendering 5.4 yards per carry. That’s the worst mark in the NFL. Ford should be fed in this must-win game.
Cincinatti Bengals Running Backs
The Bengals are off to a rough start, but their backfield remains quite valuable given they still have a top-five offense. In fact, their 0.145 rushing EPA per play ranks second behind their division-rival Ravens. Fortunately, this backfield is a lot less messy than most in the league as it only deploys two running backs: Zack Moss and Chase Brown. Moss is the clear lead back as he’s had a snap share of at least 65% in every game this season, while Brown has yet to top a 33% snap rate (Week 1). Most notable is that Moss’ routes run rate has increased in consecutive weeks since the start of the season. With the Bengals leading the league in pass rate over expected, being Cincinnati’s passing-downs back holds even more value. Brown was given a season-high 10 opportunities, so he still has plenty of contingent value should something happen to Moss. Ultimately, this is a backfield that I want as much exposure to right now, even if one is more of a bench stash at the moment.
Chuba Hubbard finished with 21 carries for 114 yards against the Raiders, +33 rushing yards over expected (RYOE), Hubbard’s second-most RYOE in a game in his career per Next Gen Stats.
Hubbard showed efficiency at 5.4 yards per carry. Hubbard had three chances in red-zone rushing situations. He was also targeted on 63% of his routes – the highest among any RB in Week 3.
Per the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool, Carolina has the No. 3 schedule for RBs for the rest of the season.
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
Anyone looking for a breakout game from Rome Odunze or Caleb Williams found it on Sunday when the Bears took on the Indianapolis Colts and their lackluster pass defense. Caleb Williams threw for 363 yards and his first two touchdowns of his career. In the process, he allocated a whopping 245 air yards to Rome Odunze, which allowed him to pile up six catches for 112 yards and a score. It was perhaps the breakthrough that this dynamic rookie duo needed to take the next step, and Odunze looked perfectly healthy after some injury scares the last two weeks.
Odunze’s 245 air yards are 37 more than Week 2’s leader, Malik Nabers, and are the most by any individual player in the league this year. Williams was targeting Odunze all over the field, including 11 total targets and two in the red zone. Odunze only finished with 24 yards after the catch, but that’s because his average depth of target (aDOT) was an extremely high 21.4 yards. To see this kind of improvement from Williams is encouraging since he had not completed a pass over 14 yards heading into Week 3. Only teammate DJ Moore ran more routes in the entire NFL last week, so if this all of a sudden can become an ascending passing attack with that kind of volume, it’s going to be Rome Odunze to the moon for the rest of the fantasy season.
Speaking of shadow corners, the Patriots have one of their own in Christian Gonzalez, who also did a strong job against Metcalf and shadowed Wilson on 88% of his routes in Week 3. Brandon Aiyuk was heavily linked to the Patriots for a small period of time this summer and now he’ll face off against Gonzalez in a game as opposed to what could have been in practice.
We don’t need to always be wary of shadow corners but when we have a corner who has allowed only 56 yards in man coverage coming up against a receiver who looks decidedly rusty, it bears attention. Aiyuk has yet to eclipse 50 yards in a single game and ranks 39th among 46 wide receivers with over 15 targets in yards per route run (1.2). Players who hold out (or in) during training camp rarely get off to strong starts. For now, Aiyuk is best approached with the utmost caution.
Los Angeles Rams Wide Receivers
With Cooper Kupp sidelined, the Rams were left with a hodge podge of wide receivers to fill in for him and Puka Nacua. Per Jourdan Rodrigue, Kupp’s timeline for returning is fluid so it’s worth dissecting how the usage played out without him for Los Angeles. Rams veterans Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell led the way with a 97% and 83% routes run rate, respectively. Atwell had run a route on just 17% of dropbacks in the two weeks prior, so he was a clear beneficiary of Kupp’s absence. Tyler Johnson and Jordan Whittington failed to eclipse a 50% rate. In fact, Johnson’s route rate dropped below 50% for the first time in a game this season. Furthermore, no single receiver on the team earned more than five targets. Though the Rams only attempted 25 passes, this level of concentration (or lack thereof) in the target tree should be expected without a true alpha receiver like Kupp or Nacua. Robinson remains the favorite to have consistent usage as his routes rate hasn’t dipped below 88% in a game this season, but his team-leading 16.3-yard aDOT will make his production much more boom-or-bust.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
Cole Kmet’s usage hasn’t been ideal through three weeks. He is down at 30th among tight ends with a 47.1% route participation rate, as Shane Waldron has often opted to use Gerald Everett over him in passing situations. However, Kmet’s role has been trending up each week. He has gone from a 48% snap share in Week 1 to 77% in Week 2 to 81% in Week 3.
It is worth noting Kmet still posted just a 57.9% route participation rate in Week 3 despite that high snap share, as he was asked to pass-block occasionally and often sat in obvious passing situations. But he made the most of his routes, catching 10 of his 11 targets for 97 yards and a touchdown.
With the state of the tight end position, many managers will likely rush to put Kmet directly into their lineups after that performance. However, I think his limited usage so far makes him fit better as a stash, especially once we consider that his Week 3 explosion was buoyed by the Bears’ insane 52 pass attempts. Still, Kmet has a history of providing solid production, so he’s worth holding in hopes that his role expands.
You would have to be desperate to start Hayden Hurst with Taylor Heinicke under center, but many fantasy managers likely are with the current state of the tight end position. The reason Hurst is an option for Week 4 is that the Chiefs’ defense has been outlier-level bad against the tight end position so far this year. We all remember Isaiah Likely‘s huge game in the season opener. Kansas City followed that up by allowing over 150 yards to the combination of Mike Gesicki, Erick All and Drew Sample. They even allowed Kyle Pitts to rack up 59 yards (and had to get away with defensive pass interference to prevent him from scoring a touchdown). Hurst, meanwhile, has been the Chargers’ clear lead tight end with a 64% route participation rate and seven targets through three weeks. This is a bit of a Hail Mary, but he could have a solid outing against a Chiefs defense that clearly forces the ball to opposing tight ends.
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