FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy content to help you win your league, and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy content to help you win your league, and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
It’s a new day for the Washington Commanders after hiring Dan Quinn in the offseason. While Quinn and the free agent additions will improve the worst defense in the NFL from a year ago, fantasy players should still target Washington when picking out streaming quarterbacks this year. The Commanders surrendered the second-most fantasy points per game (20.1) and the most passing touchdowns (39) to quarterbacks last season. Furthermore, the team has an inexperienced secondary. Don’t be surprised if Baker Mayfield starts the year with a three-touchdown performance.
While Caleb Williams should play well for the Bears, fantasy players might want to make other plans at the quarterback position. Quarterbacks rarely have big fantasy performances in their first NFL game. Last year, C.J. Stroud scored 10.7 fantasy points and Bryce Young had 7.5 while Anthony Richardson totaled 20.9 thanks to 40 rushing yards and a touchdown. More importantly, Williams didn’t have a great preseason, completing only 50% of his passes.
While he will be fantasy-relevant this year, Williams should rank outside the top 15 quarterbacks in Week 1. He faces a Titans defense that held quarterbacks to 15.5 fantasy points per game in 2023, the ninth-fewest in the league. They also surrendered only 20 passing touchdowns last season.
Cincinnati is the largest favorite of the week, entering their home opener as a 9.5-point favorite against a putrid Patriots team. That’s the perfect scenario for the Bengals’ lead back, which is, apparently, Zack Moss.Joe Mixon is out of the picture. Cincy brought in Moss as their two-down guy and goal-line back. That means he should get at least 15 carries and a handful of goal-line chances since they’re such a massive favorite at home. In the six games Moss had at least 13 carries filling in forJonathan Taylor last season, he averaged nearly 100 yards rushing and 16 fantasy points per game.
On the strength of his league-leading receiving numbers in 2023 (95 targets, 76 receptions, 591 yards), Breece Hall was able to finish the year as the RB6 in PPG (17.1). Coming back from his ACL tear, he was the RB14 in snap share (61.1%) and carries (223). However, due to the inefficiencies at QB, Hall was severely hampered from a production standpoint in RB efficiency. He had 77 evaded tackles but this only amounted to 994 rushing yards (RB13) and a true yards per carry of 3.9 (RB38). One could only imagine just how special the season could have been for Hall hadAaron Rodgers not gotten hurt four snaps into 2023.
I am not suggesting Hall needs to be benched in Week 1. But this is more of afantasy start sit eyebrow raise to be cautious of his production in this matchup. He and the Jets will be on the road to open the 2024 season and facing the extremely tough 49ers defense. A team that was second-best in points allowed to opposing RBs (15.74 PPG) last season. In what is expected to be one of the lower-scoring games on the slate (43.5 total), there may not be much upside to be had for Hall in this matchup. Drafted as the RB2/RB3 off the board, I expect to see him struggle in this game and produce more along the lines of an RB2 or even an RB3 coming out of Week 1. He will be started in 100% of lineups this week, but do not expect him to carry your team to victory.
Najee Harris was his usual consistent self last season. He finished with his third consecutive season with at least 1,000 rushing yards, eight total touchdowns, and 1,200 total yards. That didn’t equate to a smash season, though, as he was the RB30 in fantasy points per game as he split work with Jaylen Warren. Warren will still be a thorn in his side for 2024. What gets lost in the Harris discussion, though, is that he arguably had one of his best seasons on a per-touch basis of his career. Among 49 qualifying backs, he was 10th in explosive run rate, 19th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and 17th in yards after contact per attempt. Harris could have a tough time in Week 1 against a stout Falcons’ run defense. While Atlanta allowed the 14th-highest explosive run rate and 13th-most rushing yards per game, they were a tough team overall to run on. They faced the sixth-most rushing attempts last year and held opposing rushers at bay with the sixth-highest stuff rate, the tenth-lowest missed tackles forced, and the ninth-lowest yards after contact per attempt. Harris will have to rely on volume this week.
If Andrei Iosivas is the full-time third receiver, he’s essentially a starter. According to Sumer Sports, the Bengals had the fourth-highest 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end and three receivers) usage (74.2%) in 2023. Furthermore, they used 11 personnel groupings 83.9% of the time in 2022. Iosivas is an ideal bench stash in 12-team leagues or bigger with medium-sized benches or larger. He can have Flex value with a full-time role and has additional upside if Chase or Higgins were injured.
Troy Hill allowed the joint sixth-most fantasy points per route run last year (0.35), according to the FantasyPoints Data Suite. Rashid Shaheed, on the other hand, managed 0.36 fantasy points per route run, despite not even running routes 70% of the time. However, in this matchup, it feels he will get more targets than the 18.1% targets per route run he averaged in 2023. This feels like a giant mismatch. Thus, starting Shaheed as a Flex feels less of a gamble than usual this week.
When Deebo Samuel had his contract stand-off in 2022, he later remarked that holding out of training and the mental side of things left him underprepared for that season. Fast forward to the present and it’sBrandon Aiyuk whose situation looks remarkably similar. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Aiyuk starts the season rusty and the team needs to lean on Samuel heavily. In 2023, Samuel had eight top-20 finishes, only eight games below 80 yards and scored touchdowns in 57% of his games. Whatever way we look at this, Samuel should be a safe and reliable option in Week 1.
With Jacoby Brissett named quarterback, I think this helps Henry in the short term. Brissett has always been a security-blanket type of simple, short-throw player. Henry can provide that security blanket for him, especially in Week 1 against a Bengals defense that was routinely torched by tight ends last year.
In 2023, Cincinnati allowed 1,080 receiving yards to tight ends, which was the second-most in the league. No team in the NFL allowed more than the 107 receptions the Bengals gave up to tight ends in 2023 as well. With a strong six touchdowns in 42 receptions last year, Henry could find himself as the most reliable red zone target for the Patriots in Week 1.
Taysom Hill can be streaky. He finished TE10 in half-PPR scoring last year, but it was a roller-coaster ride. There were four games in which Hill scored more than 14 fantasy points and seven games in which he scored fewer than four fantasy points. I’m optimistic that Hill can pop in Week 1. He’s going to do most of his damage as a runner, and he’ll be facing a Carolina run defense that was dead last in DVOA last year. The Saints have all but screamed to us that Hill is going to have a prominent role in the offense this year. Believe them.
