FantasyPros publishes approximately 7.7 million pieces of weekly fantasy content to help you win your league, and eventually take home fantasy gold. It can be difficult to read such a vast amount of content, which is why we’ve rounded up a few of the most actionable, can’t-miss stat nuggets you absolutely need to know each week to aid with fantasy football start sit decisions.
We’ve broken down this weekly TL;DR (Too Long; Didn’t Read) article by each of the four main skill positions in fantasy football (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end), with at least two stats per position. Click on each author’s byline to read the entire article. Good luck this week.
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TL;DR Fantasy Football Week 3
Must-Know Quarterback Fantasy Football Stats
Jayden Daniels hasn’t thrown a touchdown in his two-week-long NFL career. Yet, he is the QB4 for the season, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game because of his legs. The star rookie has 26 rushing attempts for 132 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. However, his fantasy rushing production dropped 78.9% from Week 1 to Week 2 after failing to score a touchdown in the win over the New York Giants. Daniels has averaged only 205 passing yards per game because of a ridiculously low 4.9 average depth of target (aDOT)
While the Bengals have a 0-2 record, their defense has played well. They have held quarterbacks to only 10.5 fantasy points per game this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett had only 121 passing yards and eight fantasy points against Cincinnati in Week 1, which everyone expected. However, Patrick Mahomes scored only 12.9 fantasy points against the Bengals last week despite throwing two touchdowns. Expect Washington to lean on Brian Robinson Jr. on Monday night, limiting Daniels’ upside against a talented defense.
One of the biggest surprises over the first two weeks has been Darnold and the Vikings. Minnesota is 2-0, including a 23-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. While the former No. 3 NFL Draft pick hasn’t been a fantasy star, the veteran has played well. He has completed 72% of his pass attempts for 238 yards, two touchdowns, and 17.3 fantasy points per game. Darnold hasn’t had to throw the ball at a high rate, totaling 24 and 26 pass attempts in the two contests.
Surprisingly, he showed off his athleticism last week, rushing for 32 yards on five attempts. Meanwhile, the Texans gave Caleb Williams nightmares, as he pressured on almost every snap last week. They held the rookie to 7.4 fantasy points while forcing two interceptions. However, Houston gave up 212 yards, two touchdowns, and 16.5 fantasy points to Anthony Richardson in the passing game in Week 1. The Vikings have one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. Darnold should have another strong fantasy performance if Minnesota can keep him upright.
Must-Know Running Back Fantasy Football Stats
Tony Pollard was falling in fantasy drafts, and it isn’t easy to understand why. He was brought in to be the starting running back replacement for Derrick Henry. He has scored 15 and 18 fantasy points in his first two games. Most importantly, he’s had at least 16 carries and four targets in both outings, playing in 65% of the team’s snaps. That was the most significant question mark coming into the year, but Pollard is a must-start player if he gets 20 touches per game. That’s great against a Green Bay defense allowing 5.1 yards per carry and the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing rushers.
Singletary might not be the sexiest fantasy play weekly, but he is a strong volume Flex who can be an RB2. He has been the Giants’ workhorse, playing at least 70% of the snaps in each game while averaging 15.5 touches and 73.5 total yards. Among 40 qualifying backs, Singletary ranks 11th in explosive run rate, third in missed tackles forced per attempt and sixth in yards after contact per attempt. The Giants should look to feed Singletary this week. The Browns’ run defense is middle-of-the-road, at best. This season, they are 19th in explosive run rate and 15th in missed tackle rate while also having the seventh-lowest stuff rate and the fifth-highest yards after contact per attempt allowed. Last year, they allowed the fourth-highest yards per carry to gap runs (Singletary: 77% gap runs). He should find running room this week behind a line that has surprised with run blocking with the 14th-best yards before contact per attempt.
One of the clear breakout candidates this offseason was Brian Robinson, who would be the lead back in a Kliff Kingsbury-designed offense. Kingsbury, for all his faults, of which there are many, can design a very good running game. With Jayden Daniels there to keep defenses honest, Robinson is thriving. Robinson is ninth in rushing yards per game (86.5), second in yards per carry among those with 25+ attempts (5.97) and seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.21). Austin Ekeler is a slight thorn in Robinson’s side, but his 32% opportunity share tells you everything about which back is the lead in the Commanders’ offense. The Bengals will likely have their way with the Washington pass defense, which looks to be the worst in the league, but the Bengals weak point is their rushing defense, which has allowed the second-most missed tackles (16), the seventh-most rushing yards per game (159.5) and the fourth-highest first down rate. Robinson could be in for a big Week 3.
Must-Know Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Stats
In the many years I have been analyzing air yards, I don’t think I have ever come across a 66.7% target share or a 74.6% air yards share. Malik Nabers demanded 18 targets on Sunday. All other players on the New York Giants combined for nine. This is the type of dominant usage many fantasy analysts were hoping for when Nabers showed up and immediately became the best pass-catcher on the team. But never would we have thought it would explode to these types of numbers and give him 208 air yards by Week 2.
For some context, the high in air yards for Week 1 was 170 yards by Amari Cooper. In 2023, 200 air yards to a single player happened fewer than 25 times all year. Even Daniel Jones doesn’t seem to be able to screw up an uber-talented player like Nabers who has next to no target competition in New York. Nabers has a legitimate shot at leading all wide receivers in air yards and air yards share for the rest of the season.
The Dolphins placed Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve (IR) early this week, keeping him out of the lineup until at least Week 8. Fantasy players saw Tyreek Hill struggle last week after a massive opening weekend performance. The superstar had three receptions on six targets for 24 receiving yards and 5.1 half-PPR fantasy points in the loss to the Buffalo Bills. Hill played four games during the 2022 season without Tagovailoa, averaging a 22.4% target share, 26% target per route run rate and a 36.5% first-read target share, per Fantasy Points Data.
However, he averaged 12.6 fantasy points per game during those four contests, scoring 9.5 or fewer in half the matchups. While Hill is still startable until Tagovailoa returns, fantasy players should glue him to the bench this week. The Seahawks have held wide receivers to 15.1 fantasy points per game over the first two weeks, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. Furthermore, Seattle has two of the highest PFF coverage grade cornerbacks this year — Riq Woolen (84.6) and Devon Witherspoon (70.1). Mike Macdonald will do everything possible to shut down Hill.
This will look strange to some folks as the Pittsburgh Steelers have been one of the best defenses in the NFL so far in 2024. However, Ladd McConkey has a strong, advantageous matchup this week. The peripheral numbers on McConkey are better than most people think. According to Fantasy Points, McConkey, while only running routes on 70% of snaps, is averaging an impressive 0.56 fantasy points per route run. That ranks eighth among all wide receivers so far this season.
McConkey is also being targeted on 31.4% of his routes. With these numbers, we can expect his route numbers to increase. Especially as he continues to keep winning duels across the field.
This week McConkey is up against Beanie Bishop. It has been a baptism of fire for the undrafted free agent (UDFA) rookie so far. He is allowing 0.40 fantasy points per route run against him. Only Jaycee Horn (0.42 fantasy points per route run against him) is allowing more. Given that McConkey has the best matchup of the three wide receivers for the Los Angeles Chargers, expect him to see a higher workload this week and become a top-30 wide receiver option this week potentially.
Must-Know Tight End Fantasy Football Stats
At first, you had my curiosity, but now you have my attention, Mike Gesicki. On Sunday, the Bengals’ free-agent addition tight end recorded a team-high nine targets and now leads the team on the season with 13 total targets. A small size albeit, but that’s what we’re dealing with two weeks into the season. This could have been a specific game-plan mismatch the Bengals saw or it could have been because Tee Higgins missed his second-straight game. But, it’s also just the third time in Joe Burrow‘s 54-game career that he’s targeted a tight end nine times in a game (Hayden Hurst in Week 12 of 2022 and Drew Sample in Week 2 of 2020). The concerning part of Gesicki’s profile is that he’s run a route on 46% and 51% of the team’s dropbacks in each of the first two weeks, respectively.
Dalton Kincaid caught four of four targets (21% target share) for 33 yards, showing his reliability as a tight end. Kincaid was out-snapped by Dawson Knox (53% vs 42%). After Kincaid was second on the team in routes run after Week 1, he finished 3rd in Week 2.
Still, 75% route participation is strong as is his 27% target rate per route run. In a weak TE landscape, I still think Kincaid is worth sending low-ball offers for.
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