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4 Fantasy Football Stats to Know Before Setting Your Lineup

We have finally reached the mountaintop because football season is back. You have completed your drafts and set up your rosters. Now it’s time to dominate your opponents in Week 1 and start the season with a nice victory. Although you did copious amounts of research in the offseason, now isn’t the time to take your foot off the pedal. Instead, this is where we double down to do even more research to make sure everyone we allow to start for our team doesn’t bust in Week 1.

Below are a plethora of stats you’ll need to help you research your players and opponents’ players and understand the game script for both teams this week.

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Fantasy Football Stats to Know for Week 1

Derrick Henry‘s Baked-In Workload

Derrick Henry has been a bit of an enigma for fantasy football this offseason. With his new team and rising age, drafters have been torn on the King. How the Ravens dominated the game script last season should calm your fears. The Baltimore Ravens only trailed in fewer than 20% of their offensive snaps last season. That was an incredible amount of time when they had the lead. A positive game script favors the running back, especially someone like Henry, who can bulldoze opponents and wear them out throughout the game.

We should expect a slow start to the first game of the year as teams are getting their feet underneath them for this season. The Ravens didn’t bring in Henry to be a spectator, so you shouldn’t worry about him entering your lineup and producing for your fantasy team.

Remember, if you were lucky enough to have Henry as a Flex player, you might want to move him into a running back slot to allow roster flexibility throughout the week for fantasy start sit decisions.

Inside the 5-Yard Line = Pay Day

Receptions and yardage totals are nice, but touchdowns elevate your fantasy team to another level within your matchups. To dominate our opponents, we want to attack the players with touchdown equity in their fantasy outlooks.

One of those players we must trust in to start the season is Rachaad White. White has been discussed at length this offseason due to his inefficiency while running the football. We aren’t here to discuss that today. Today, we discuss his 93.8% (third-highest last season) snaps inside the five-yard line (I5). This total is one of the best in the NFL last season.

The Buccaneers have drafted Bucky Irving, which has fantasy managers everywhere questioning White’s snap percentage. We wouldn’t worry about that percentage down by the goal line due to the sizes of each of these running backs. White is 6-foot-0 and weighs 214 pounds, while Irving is only 5-foot-9 and weighs 195 pounds.

The size difference is immense there. With the addition of Graham Barton to their interior offensive line, White can fix his inefficiency and continue dominating his I5 touches in Week 1.

Only One Running Back Can Rule the Goal-Line Kingdom

We will stick with the I5 total, but this time, we are moving on to the Steel City. In the last few offseasons, we have heard the demise of Najee Harris while touting Jaylen Warren to anyone who would listen. Hopefully, my work has had you pump those breaks a bit and realize Harris has more than enough in the tank to offer your fantasy team production every week.

One of the biggest weapons in Harris’ arsenal is his I5 percentage. Harris was 10th-best in I5 snaps (81.3%), while his cohort Warren only entered those situations 37.5% of the time, ranking him 47th-best in the NFL.

Warren may have electric moments, but he also has a lower-body injury. Banking on a running back dealing with soft tissue injuries while barely receiving payday work is a scary proposition for your fantasy team and puts your victory at risk. Tread carefully when identifying the correct Steelers running back.

Puka Nacua: Sophmore Bust?

Puka Nacua burst onto the scene last year and dominated this Rams offense. That dominance led to a high average draft position (ADP) for the second-year wide receiver. Although Nacua is one of my production dart-throw hits in my career. We must be wary of the budding superstar in 2024.

Nacua became a volume machine last year, but some of that rested on his teammate Cooper Kupp‘s injury, which demanded that production. Kupp is back healthy this year, so we must dive deeper into Nacua’s stats. Did you know Nacua had 51 I5 snaps last season? Did you also know he was 23rd-best in the NFL for end-zone targets with 10 total, even behind teammate Demarcus Robinson?

Matthew Stafford now has his breakfast buddy back in L.A., and we know how he trusts Kupp in pressure situations like goal-line work. We also have Kyren Williams taking opportunities close to the end zone. If Robinson out-targets Nacua again, this could spell a high floor but a low upside for Nacua, which is precisely what we don’t want at his ADP.

Nacua does face the Detroit Lions in Week 1, who allowed the third-most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position last season. However, the defense is improving, and we can’t just lean on last year’s totals. It would be best if you didn’t sit Nacua this week, but you may want to temper your expectations. The Lions will dissect the disastrous defensive back play they used in the Wild Card game against Nacua so we don’t see another 9/181/1 stat line.

Always read all the fantastic work here at FantasyPros before making your lineup decisions. We provide you with knowledge from fantasy start sit options to WR/CB matchups and everything in between. Our only goal is to help you win in fantasy football. If you ever need another helping hand, you can always contact me on X at @jpep20. I’ll gladly help as best I can. Take these stats and win Week 1. Good Luck and we will see you here next week.

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