Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Picks (Week 4)

Through three weeks of the NFL season, it can be easy to start feeling complacent about your fantasy football start sit decisions, but as we get more data and more film, we get more of a feel for how the rest of the season can play out and where the risky and safe matchups might be. These are the riskiest and safest fantasy football starts for Week 4.

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Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Players (Week 4)

Week 4 Risky Starts

Mark Andrews (TE – BAL) vs. Bills

Week 1 could be chalked up as an anomaly with the Chiefs dedicating double coverage to Mark Andrews at a rate he’d never seen before. Week 2 was kind of fine with Andrews finishing as the TE10 — not great but not awful. Week 3, though, absolutely did fall into the awful category with Andrews registering one target, zero catches and only four routes run against the Cowboys.

Perhaps the car crash Andrews was involved in during training camp had after-effects that lingered into the season and perhaps the Cowboys were just so bad on the ground that Baltimore didn’t feel the need to feature Andrews, but all of this adds up to make it very obvious Andrews is no longer a lock in a way he once was. The Bills allow the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends and have been weak against targets to the slot, but can you trust Andrews to take advantage of that?

Javonte Williams (RB – DEN) @ Jets

The offseason was full of talk of the Broncos feeling great about Javonte Williams, who had lost weight, per a request of Sean Payton, to make him faster and more elusive but that hasn’t transpired. Williams ranks 30th in juke rate (17.6%) among RBs with 15+ attempts, a vast difference from teammate Jaleel McLaughlin, who ranks first (50%).

The Denver Broncos’ offensive line ranks 32nd in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) run block rate, so this isn’t all on Williams. However, the fact is Williams isn’t getting close to the volume needed to be a comfortable starter with fewer than 10 touches in two of his three games and only one fantasy finish inside the top 36. The bigger question is whether Williams has entered roster clogger territory.

Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) vs. Broncos

Speaking of the Broncos… you’re unlikely to ever want to bench your studs but that feeling might be starting to creep in with Garrett Wilson, who is the WR28 in PPR points per game (PPG), sitting behind Jakobi Meyers, Brian Thomas Jr. and Quentin Johnston, among others. Wilson will undoubtedly get right sooner or later, but it might not be soon with him likely facing the league’s best shadow corner in Patrick Surtain this week.

While covering DK Metcalf, George Pickens and Mike Evans in the opening games, those three wide receivers were held to an average of 2.3 catches for 25 yards by Surtain. The Broncos feel completely at ease putting Surtain out on an island with no additional safety help and he has shown he’s more than enough to lockdown some of the best in the game.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) vs. Patriots

Speaking of shadow corners, the Patriots have one of their own in Christian Gonzalez, who also did a strong job against Metcalf and shadowed Wilson on 88% of his routes in Week 3. Brandon Aiyuk was heavily linked to the Patriots for a small period of time this summer and now he’ll face off against Gonzalez in a game as opposed to what could have been in practice.

We don’t need to always be wary of shadow corners but when we have a corner who has allowed only 56 yards in man coverage coming up against a receiver who looks decidedly rusty, it bears attention. Aiyuk has yet to eclipse 50 yards in a single game and ranks 39th among 46 wide receivers with over 15 targets in yards per route run (1.2). Players who hold out (or in) during training camp rarely get off to strong starts. For now, Aiyuk is best approached with the utmost caution.

Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC) vs. Chiefs

Three touchdowns in the opening three games has exceeded the two touchdowns Quentin Johnston scored in his entire rookie year, and that should potentially give him some much needed confidence after a slow start to his career. With the Chargers’ wide receiver room banged up, Johnston has led the group in route participation and the team seem pleased with what they’ve seen from him.

Even in deeper leagues, though, he’ll be a hard start in Week 4 with either a backup quarterback or the severely hampered Justin Herbert, who failed to make it the full way through Week 3’s matchup with the Steelers. This is all before we talk about a Chiefs defense that has been good at taking away an offense’s top option.

Week 4 Safe Starts

Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI) vs. Commanders

Every week we can almost automatically lock in the No. 1 WR of any team facing the Washington Commanders. Through three games, the Commanders have allowed top-12 performances to Ja’Marr Chase (WR2), Malik Nabers (WR3), Mike Evans (WR6) and Chris Godwin (WR8). According to Fantasy Points, the Commanders have allowed a league-leading 67.6 fantasy points through passing, 11.6 more than any other team.

Last year, the Commanders’ pass defense was by far and away the worst in the league and they’ve picked up right where they left off. Since Harrison’s Week 1 dud, he’s seen target shares of 38% and 32%, combining for 46.4 PPR points.

Rashee Rice (WR – KC) @ Chargers

The Chiefs haven’t transformed into the gung-ho aerial attack some hoped, with Patrick Mahomes‘ 4.6 average depth of target (aDOT) the lowest of any signal-caller who has started all three games this season. While this hasn’t been good news for speedy deep threat Xavier Worthy, it has been good news for Rashee Rice, whose 5.2 air yards per target is the lowest of the Chiefs wide receivers. However, Rice can work with that and has generated a league-leading 186 yards after the catch, 48 more than any other wide receiver. The Chargers will also be without the suspended Derwin James, taking away one of their better defenders of the middle of the field and leaving Rice with an even better fantasy start sit matchup.

Sam Darnold (QB – MIN) @ Packers

Only three quarterbacks have scored more fantasy points through three games than Sam Darnold — Josh Allen, Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson. Darnold might struggle to keep up with the dual-threats as the season continues but he’s shown he understands the Vikings’ offense and can support more than just one option in the passing game.

Over time, the Vikings should get healthier with the returns of TJ Hockenson and Jordan Addison, making Darnold’s life somewhat easier. The ceiling can be pretty high for Darnold if he stays injury-free. The biggest risk is Brian Flores’ defense keeping up their form, with them allowing the second-fewest points through two games, making it harder for Darnold to be pushed into pass-heavy scripts. This week’s opponents have allowed the ninth-most passing yards and fifth-most passing touchdowns through three games, making Darnold a safe quarterback option.

Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN) @ Panthers

If the Bengals’ defense hadn’t bungled their way to an 0-3 start against the Commanders we’d probably be spending more time talking about how the Bengals’ offense looked good for the first time this year. Ja’Marr Chase eclipsed 70 yards for the first time this year, totaling 118 yards. He also found the end zone for the first and second time this year.

Of course, it’s fair to note this occurred against the Washington Commanders and their awful secondary. In Week 4, Chase takes on a Carolina Panthers defense that ranks third in fantasy points allowed in the passing game and third in passing touchdowns allowed. The Bengals are figuring things out slowly, but their easy schedule (on paper) seems to have woken up their passing game.