We find ourselves two weeks into the NFL season and with more knowledge and more headaches than ever before. Whether you’re 0-2 or 2-0 right now, it’s not the time to panic or get carried away. It’s time to focus on the details and make sure you start the correct players. This article will highlight the safest and riskiest starts for the coming week.
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Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Players (Week 3)
Week 3 Risky Starts
Amari Cooper’s 17 targets through two games should have you feeling pretty good about him; after all, that’s the eleventh-most among wide receivers. Unfortunately, his five receptions are tied for 65th at the position, while his catch rate of 29% is dead last among receivers with five or more catches. Thanks to Deshaun Watson‘s substandard quarterback play, only 10 of Cooper’s 17 targets have been catchable. The Browns play the miserable Giants in Week 3, which should be a great spot for Cooper, but can you trust that it turns out that way?
The Bears have given D’Andre Swift 24 rush attempts through two games, and 14 of them have gone for one yard or fewer, with plenty of them resulting in negative yardage. Swift is facing eight or more defenders in the box on only 8% of his runs, the fifth-lowest rate in the league. Opposing defenses are respecting the passing attack of the Bears, and it hasn’t made any difference for Swift. Add to this worry the fact that Khalil Herbert has seen 100% of the Bears carries inside the five-yard line, and it starts to become tricky to figure out how Swift is going to score you fantasy points. The Colts have allowed a league-high 474 rushing yards through two games, which, on paper, suggests Swift should fare well here. Whether he does or not is anyone’s guess.
The Dolphins might elect to make the Skylar Thompson era quite short-lived now that they’ve signed Tyler Huntley from the Ravens practice squad, but either way, it’s hard to be positive about the Dolphins receiving game in the short-term. Thompson has a career average completion rate of 57%, substantially lower than Tua Tagovailoa‘s 67%, and his 5.2 yards per attempt is far worse than Tagovailoa’s 7.7. Huntley’s 64% completion rate might instill more confidence, but his 5.4 yards per attempt isn’t great either. In his last five starts in 2022, he averaged just 132 pass yards and 27 rush yards. Tyreek Hill has been the first read on 27% of the Dophins’ plays according to Fantasy Points, compared to 15% for Jaylen Waddle. Waddle also averages just 10 PPR points in games without Tua compared to 15 points per game with Tua. This all spells bad news, and Waddle may struggle to be relevant without a touchdown.
Week 3 Safe Starts
Baker Mayfield has been on fire to start the season, and it is fair to say he seems completely at home in Liam Coen’s new offensive scheme that the Bucs have been running. Mayfield is targeting his first read on 77% of plays and Chris Godwin leads all Bucs receivers in being the first read at a rate of 34%. Godwin’s return to fantasy stud levels has been helped by his return to the slot, playing 65% of his snaps there through two games, compared to a career-low 34% rate in 2023. Godwin has also seen the third-most designed plays among wide receivers (four), which again helps him produce more consistently. Through two games, the Lions have found opponents targeting slot receivers at a 42% rate according to Fantasy Points, the sixth-highest rate in the league.
One of the clear breakout candidates this offseason was Brian Robinson, who would be the lead back in a Kliff Kingsbury designed offense. Kingsbury, for all his faults, of which there are many, can design a very good running game. With Jayden Daniels there to keep defenses honest, Robinson is thriving. Robinson is ninth in rushing yards per game (86.5), second in yards per carry among those with 25+ attempts (5.97) and seventh in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.21). Austin Ekeler is a slight thorn in Robinson’s side, but his 32% opportunity share tells you everything about which back is the lead in the Commanders’ offense. The Bengals will likely have their way with the Washington pass defense, which looks to be the worst in the league, but the Bengals weak point is their rushing defense, which has allowed the second-most missed tackles (16), the seventh-most rushing yards per game (159.5) and the fourth-highest first down rate. Robinson could be in for a big Week 3.
Speaking of the Bengals, Ja’Maar Chase has disappointed thus far with only 10 receptions for 97 scoreless yards, failing to crack the top 25 wide receivers in either week. That, however, might be about to change. The Bengals get the 1.01 of matchups for the passing attack this week, taking on a Commanders pass defense that has allowed the most receiving touchdowns (six), the highest QB Passer Rating (127.5) and the sixth-highest yards per attempt (8.05). The Commanders have been unable to stop the pass dating back through the whole of 2023, and while a defensive head coach like Dan Quinn should be able to make a difference, we’re yet to see it. If Chase can’t get right in this spot, then it’s time to have a serious conversation.
The tight end position has performed its annual trick of revealing that the offseason oasis of plentiful options was actually a dry and dusty mirage that once again leaves many of us thirsty for production. That is, of course, unless you have Brock Bowers. Bowers had an incredibly low-hype offseason after a hamstring injury kept him from working out or testing at the Combine or Georgia’s Pro Day. This, coupled with photos of him looking less-than-athletic, kept in check some of the hype that many fall into with rookie prospects. Now, Bowers leads all tight ends in yards (156) and receptions (15), and he is second in fantasy points per game (15.3). The Raiders have been creative with Bowers’ usage and made sure to use him all over the field, something we never saw from the Falcons when they drafted a tight end highly. Next up for Bowers, the Carolina Panthers … good luck, Carolina.
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