Week 1 is finally here. It’s time to finally put our months of offseason takes to the test. Each week this column will help you get ready for the week ahead by giving you the riskiest and safest starts to help with fantasy football start-sit decisions. Week 1, let’s get into it. Here are a few of the riskiest and safest players as you consider your fantasy football start-sit decisions for Week 1.

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Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice: Safe & Risky Players (Week 1)

Week 1 Risky Starts

Jaylen Warren (RB – PIT) vs. ATL

Generally speaking, it’s nothing but risky to play players coming off soft tissue injuries, like the one that has kept Jaylen Warren out of training for the last few weeks. Warren, for his part, said he would have been healthy enough to play if the game was last week. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin, however, remains tight-lipped on the subject and hasn’t revealed if Warren will play or how much he’ll do so if available. Warren is a true target earner when on the field, with 89 catches across the last two seasons and boasting the second-highest explosive play rate among running backs in 2023. However, we’re yet to see exactly how the Steelers plan to operate under Arthur Smith’s offense, so taking a week or two makes sense.

Good looking stuff from Jaylen Warren….hamstring feeling better pic.twitter.com/csepqCcVlT

– Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB) September 2, 2024

Curtis Samuel (WR – BUF) vs. ARI

There was a steady hype train for Curtis Samuel, not least from the writer currently typing these words, but much like Jaylen Warren’s situation, Curtis Samuel is also coming off an injury in the shape of a turf toe. These types of injuries can linger and it remains to be seen how mild or severe Samuel’s instance of that injury is. The Bills play the Cardinals at home in a game that looks to have plenty of points to offer, but with the Bills reshaping virtually their entire wide receiver room, along with this being the first full year of Joe Brady’s offense, it’s hard to decipher how the usage may work out. While Samuel seems like a lock for a useful role, given the last time he played for Brady, Samuel had 97 targets for 851 yards. For now, Samuel is safer on your bench.

D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) vs. TEN

The Eagles moved on from D’Andre Swift despite him putting up career-highs in rushing yards per game (65), attempts per game (14.3) and games played (16), allowing the Bears to pounce and sign Swift to a three-year, $24 million deal to kick-start free agency. It’s worth remembering that the Bears, after a few frugal years, had mountains of cash to spend and had to hit certain levels to reach the minimum cash spending thresholds teams must abide by. If the Bears truly believed in Swift as a workhorse, would they have kept Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson? Johnson is an excellent third-down back and Herbert is a good between the tackles runner and goal-line option. Swift will struggle to see enough of the high-value touches he needs to pay off if those two mix in heavily.

Deshaun Watson (QB – CLE) vs. DAL

The vibes around Deshaun Watson purely from a footballing perspective are now nearly as bad as they are when considering him all around. It was Week 10 of 2023 when Watson last appeared in an NFL game. Since then he’s struggled to throw without recurring pain in the shoulder he injured in that game against the Ravens. Watson had an up-and-down camp, according to beat reporters, but is also playing behind an offensive line that is very banged up, which could spell bad things against a Dallas defense known for bringing pressure. There are far better options on the fantasy football waiver wire than Watson in Week 1.

a few fun facts about Deshaun Watson:

he has a $73,000,000 cap hit in 2025 and 2026… most of any player in NFL history

also was the most inaccurate QB in the NFL last yr

also threw 3 of the most hilarious passes last yr that you will ever see pic.twitter.com/PE3ez7L8em

– Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 29, 2024

J.K. Dobbins (RB – LAC) vs. LV

The Chargers took the unusual step of naming ‘J.K. Dobbins or Gus Edwards‘ their RB1 on their Week 1 depth chart. While depth charts aren’t the most reliable, it does line up with everything we’ve seen and heard from the Chargers this offseason. With Edwards recovering from an unspecified surgery, Dobbins took the majority of starter snaps in training camp. The Raiders finished 2023 as a run funnel team, being much stronger against the pass, but starting Dobbins here would take quite the leap of faith in his body being fully recovered from his torn Achilles suffered in Week 1 of 2023.

Week 1 Safe Starts

Mike Evans (WR – TB) vs. WAS

The Commanders’ defense was atrocious in 2023, ranking 32nd in DVOA vs. the pass and allowing the second-most fantasy points to QBs and WRs, giving up 5.9 yards per play and an average of 262.2 passing yards per game. Mike Evans seems firmly entrenched as Baker Mayfield‘s primary target. His ability to win downfield should work well against a Commanders defense that has done little to upgrade a woeful secondary.

Caleb Williams (QB – CHI) vs TEN

Maybe I wouldn’t be quite so into this play if Caleb Williams hadn’t looked fantastic in preseason, but for all intents and purposes, Williams looked exactly as advertised. The Titans had a poor pass defense in 2023. Despite adding L’Jarius Sneed, they’re not a finished product by any means. Williams’ ability to add to his passing stats with scrambling, having averaged 7.8 attempts during college, will make him very viable in fantasy consistently. The Bears’ implied team total this week is one of the highest and it’s clear everyone expects Williams to hit the ground running.

CALEB WILLIAMS. WOW ?

(via @NFL) pic.twitter.com/NJbnrJlbz4

– Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) August 17, 2024

Deebo Samuel (WR – SF) vs. NYJ

When Deebo Samuel had his contract stand-off in 2022, he later remarked that holding out of training and the mental side of things left him underprepared for that season. Fast forward to the present and it’s Brandon Aiyuk whose situation looks remarkably similar. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Aiyuk starts the season rusty and the team needs to lean on Samuel heavily. In 2023, Samuel had eight top-20 finishes, only eight games below 80 yards and scored touchdowns in 57% of his games. Whatever way we look at this, Samuel should be a safe and reliable option in Week 1.

Malik Nabers (WR – NYG) vs. MIN

The Vikings’ secondary includes Harrison Smith, entering his 13th NFL season, 33-year-old Stephon Gilmore, Shaq Griffin, who has only recently recovered from a hamstring injury and the oft-injured Byron Murphy Jr. Perhaps there’s enough experience there to give Malik Nabers a difficult NFL debut, but the other side of that coin is Nabers could simply be too fast and twitchy for the veterans to keep up with. Nabers has been a constant highlight throughout the summer and despite the fact he has to play with Daniel Jones, he can be a plug-and-play starter with high expectations from Week 1.

When you draft Malik Nabers in RD5 or later of your home league draft pic.twitter.com/J0PhQgrYEz

– David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) September 1, 2024