As the NFL season kicks off, fantasy football enthusiasts are ready to turn their pre-season strategies into action. Week 1 is a pivotal moment where predictions and expectations face the reality of live game performance. It’s a time when emerging stars can make their mark and established players may exceed or fall short of their projected value. Understanding which players are primed for explosive performances and which might disappoint is crucial for a successful start to your fantasy season.

In this Week 1 edition of fantasy football booms and busts, we’ll highlight the players who have the potential to deliver standout performances and those who may underperform based on recent trends and matchups. By examining preseason form, injury reports and opponent strengths, we’ll help you identify key players who could make or break your week. Whether you’re looking to capitalize on potential breakout stars or avoid risky selections, this guide will provide the insights needed to make informed decisions.

Join me as I navigate the uncertainties of Week 1, offering expert analysis and predictions on the players who could significantly impact your fantasy roster. With the right insights and a keen eye for potential booms and busts, you can position yourself for a successful start and set the tone for a strong fantasy football season.

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Week 1 Woos (Booms)

Tua Tagovailoa (QB – MIA) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Entering the opening week of the 2024 NFL season, the slate is clean for Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ offense after a sluggish end to the 2023 season. After coming out of the gates on fire with five out of his first eight games exceeding 30 fantasy points, three of the final five games were all below 17 fantasy points. This also coincided with the injury to Tyreek Hill, which seemed to send this offense into a tailspin. With the defenses that they faced becoming tougher, and the weather outside getting a little cooler, the Dolphins were not able to meet the lofty expectations that they created earlier in the year.

Now, as we head into the season opener, the sky could be the limit again for Tagovailoa and the offense. He will be facing a Jaguars secondary that ranked seventh in the league in 2023 in passing yards allowed (4,355). Add in that the Jaguars have one of the better defensive fronts in the NFL in terms of stopping the run and the game plan for the Dolphins could be to take advantage of this team through the air with the multitude of weapons at their disposal. I expect Tagovailoa to come out of Week 1 as a solid QB1 scorer after facing a secondary that allowed 18.09 fantasy points per game (PPG) last year.

Kenneth Walker (RB – SEA) vs. Denver Broncos

Kenneth Walker was a bit of a headache for fantasy managers in 2023 as he was typically a boom-or-bust player in his weekly matchups. Although his actual PPG (13.3 – RB20) exceeded his expected PPG (13.0 – RB24), it was the usage (54.5% – RB24) that left many fantasy managers guessing each week. Some weeks he would be the unquestioned No. 1 RB for the Seahawks as he pushed for a 60% snap share, but then there were other games in which he was a 40% snap share running back, which limited his scoring potential.

This seems to not even be in the discussion as we head into Week 1 as the overall thought and talking points coming out of Seattle is that Walker should see a consistent work rate, making him the team’s bell cow back. If he maintains the usage and stays on the field, an uptick in targets (37 in 2023) could be a major boost for a player who flashed great potential in 2023 (8.9 yards per reception – RB4). In Week 1, Walker will be looking to get off to a great start against a Broncos defense that allowed 25.29 PPG to opposing RBs in 2023. I’m looking for him to produce RB1 value for fantasy managers in the opening game, which will be great for those who were able to draft him as their RB2 in drafts.

Khalil Shakir (WR – BUF) vs. Arizona Cardinals

Coming into 2024 drafts, many fantasy managers debated on who should be the top target option at wide receiver for the Buffalo Bills. One week there would be hype for Curtis Samuel, the next it would be Keon Coleman and then there would be Khlalil Shakir. All offseason long, Shakir has been somewhat of an undervalued target in fantasy drafts, according to average draft position (ADP). But when you get down to it, the efficiency metrics point to what should account for solid production for Shakir with an increased workload. In just 317 routes ran (WR82), he was able to rank as the WR1 in yards per target (13.6) and the WR2 in fantasy points per target (2.51).

Now as the Buffalo Bills enter Week 1, it feels all but certain that the top two receiving options for the team will be TE Dalton Kincaid and Shakir. He will be looking to take advantage of an Arizona Cardinals secondary that surrendered 31.0 PPG to the opposing WRs in 2023. In a matchup where the Bills are tied with the highest team total for the week (27.25), there should be plenty of opportunities to provide production in this game for Shakir. This game has the sneaky potential to become a shootout, in which case, Shakir could be in line for a high-target game. For me, that puts him in the discussion as a WR3 for fantasy managers looking for an upside play out of the gates.

Hunter Henry (TE – NE) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Even through all the problems the New England Patriots offense faced in 2023, Hunter Henry quietly put together a solid season, finishing as the TE15 (8.6 PPG) in just 14 games played. He was a constant threat around the goal line (six touchdowns) and was inside the top 10 at the position in average depth of target (aDOT) with a mark of 8.9 and air yards share (16.6%). His fantasy points per target (1.93) landed him as the TE8 on the season and points to a player who is heavily counted on to be a part of this offense consistently.

Entering the 2024 season, things look quite a bit different for the Patriots as the team is no longer coached by Bill Belichick. In steps former linebacker Jerod Mayo to take over the reins as the team looks to get back to their winning ways. Even though there will be new coaching in place, the same worries about the offense will be there as the Patriots take the field in Week 1.

A silver lining of hope for Henry is that new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt likes to utilize the TE in numerous ways in the offense. Van Pelt called the second-most TE screens in the NFL in 2023, which could become a boost to Henry’s target share. In Week 1, he will be looking to take advantage of a matchup against a Bengals defense that allowed the second-most PPG (14.29) to the position in 2023. Henry lines up to be a solid play in this matchup and could return TE1 value to begin the season.

Week 1 Boos (Busts)

Dak Prescott (QB – DAL) @ Cleveland Browns

Through all the turmoil that was the Dallas Cowboys’ offseason, Dak Prescott still finds himself without a contract entering the 2024 season. Coming off of an MVP-caliber season, Prescott paid off big time for fantasy managers who waited to draft their QB1 a season ago. Looking at nearly every metric, you can find Prescott near the top of the list. His PPG (20.7 – QB4) exceeded his expected PPG (18.5 – QB6) and he was the QB3 with passing yards (4,516) while leading the league in touchdowns (36). The lack of a true running game for much of the season put the offensive weight on Prescott’s shoulders and he was able to lead the charge for one of the NFL’s most explosive offenses.

Could 2024 lead to a repeat of last season for Prescott as the Cowboys front office decided not to improve the weapons around him? With the likes of Rico Dowdle, Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook bound to share the load at running back, one could assume that the success of this offense will come down squarely on Prescott’s ability to carry the load once again. But coming out of the gate, he will be facing a tall task in a matchup against the Cleveland Browns. A defense that was one of the stingiest in the league in points allowed to opposing QBs a season ago (12.26). Although he should maintain QB1 value throughout the 2024 campaign, look for Prescott to bust in Week 1 for fantasy managers.

Breece Hall (RB – NYJ) @ San Francisco 49ers

On the strength of his league-leading receiving numbers in 2023 (95 targets, 76 receptions, 591 yards), Breece Hall was able to finish the year as the RB6 in PPG (17.1). Coming back from his ACL tear, he was the RB14 in snap share (61.1%) and carries (223). However, due to the inefficiencies at QB, Hall was severely hampered from a production standpoint in RB efficiency. He had 77 evaded tackles but this only amounted to 994 rushing yards (RB13) and a true yards per carry of 3.9 (RB38). One could only imagine just how special the season could have been for Hall had Aaron Rodgers not gotten hurt four snaps into 2023.

I am not suggesting Hall needs to be benched in Week 1. But this is more of a fantasy start sit eyebrow raise to be cautious of his production in this matchup. He and the Jets will be on the road to open the 2024 season and facing the extremely tough 49ers defense. A team that was second-best in points allowed to opposing RBs (15.74 PPG) last season. In what is expected to be one of the lower-scoring games on the slate (43.5 total), there may not be much upside to be had for Hall in this matchup. Drafted as the RB2/RB3 off the board, I expect to see him struggle in this game and produce more along the lines of an RB2 or even an RB3 coming out of Week 1. He will be started in 100% of lineups this week, but do not expect him to carry your team to victory.

Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF) vs. New York Jets

The newly signed Brandon Aiyuk is in camp and should be happy now that the ink is dry. The standoff between him and the 49ers carried on for the entirety of training camp and now he must quickly get himself into regular-season shape for the team. Aiyuk will be looking to improve upon his 2023 numbers in which he finished as the WR16 in PPG (15.6). From an efficiency standpoint, his metrics looked outstanding as he ranked as the WR2 in both yards per target (12.8) and yards per reception (17.9) while finishing as the WR3 in yards per route run (3.18). What hurt Aiyuk from a fantasy perspective was his ability to generate points and garner targets (105 – WR30). His 422 routes ran were good for only WR53, while bringing in just 75 receptions (WR24).

Just like Breece Hall, Aiyuk enters Week 1 staring down a potential dogfight of a matchup to begin the season. Potentially lined up against Sauce Gardner, he will be facing a Jets secondary that was the toughest in the league last year in points allowed to the position (20.56 PPG) by a wide margin. Add in the fact he may not be up to game speed just yet and it’s feasible the team could have him on a snap count in this game. This is projected to be one of the lowest-scoring games in Week 1, so meeting his WR2 draft value in production this week may be too much to ask for. I’m expecting to see Aiyuk produce more along the lines of a WR3 or even a Flex-level player in this game. Fantasy managers should keep expectations low for Week 1.

Brock Bowers (TE – LV) @ Los Angeles Chargers

Brock Bowers has been widely discussed since the NFL Draft back in April. The landing spot with the Raiders led to a long of low-hung faces as hopes for a breakout rookie season were seemingly dashed. But once training camp started, reports coming from the team suggested they would be looking to move Bowers around the formation to find matchups to take advantage of. As seen during his time at Georgia, Bowers can be quite the offensive weapon if put into a prominent role on the offense. But can he truly reach TE1 status in 2024 as he competes for targets with Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers from Gardner Minshew? That is the question fantasy managers hope to answer quickly.

We may not get to see a very clear picture in Week 1 as the Raiders will be on the road and facing the division rival Los Angeles Chargers. A defense that allowed just 10.86 PPG to the position in 2023. With this matchup currently being tied for the lowest implied total on the slate (40.5), it appears we could be in store for a slow, limited possession type of ball game. This means a low target volume potentially for Bowers, making it hard to contribute starter-worthy production for fantasy managers to open the season. The smart play will be to watch this game intently to see how the offense will function moving forward.