Last week was one of the lowest-scoring weeks I’ve ever seen. Numerous teams in my leagues scored below 100 fantasy points and prevailed, but that’s been a trend all season. We’re off to one of the lowest-scoring opening months in decades and it’s hard to understand why these offenses are struggling so badly. Some skeptics say it’s due to teams laying back their secondary and forcing teams to run the ball, which sounds like a strong possibility. Offenses constantly adjust to these things, and that’s what we’re going to see.
The premise behind this article is simple: Identify fantasy football smash plays on the fringe of your starting lineup. We rarely recommend a top-10 player at any position, but we want to help you fill those critical Flex spots when making fantasy start sit decisions.
With that in mind, let’s dive into this week’s fantasy football smash starts.
Last week was one of the lowest-scoring weeks I’ve ever seen. Numerous teams in my leagues scored below 100 fantasy points and prevailed, but that’s been a trend all season. We’re off to one of the lowest-scoring opening months in decades and it’s hard to understand why these offenses are struggling so badly. Some skeptics say it’s due to teams laying back their secondary and forcing teams to run the ball, which sounds like a strong possibility. Offenses constantly adjust to these things, and that’s what we’re going to see.
The premise behind this article is simple: Identify fantasy football smash plays on the fringe of your starting lineup. We rarely recommend a top-10 player at any position, but we want to help you fill those critical Flex spots when making fantasy start sit decisions.
With that in mind, let’s dive into this week’s fantasy football smash starts.
This rookie put on a show on Monday Night Football. What’s funny is that he’s only thrown two touchdowns through three games, but he’s still one of the highest-scoring players in fantasy. His rushing is the main reason for scoring 30 fantasy points in two of his first three outings. He essentially provides what most running backs do and adds his passing as a bonus. That ability makes him attractive against a team like Arizona, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. This game’s 51-point total is also the highest of the week and it should lead to Jayden Daniels slinging the ball and running all over the place as a road underdog.
It’s strange to include a quarterback and running back on the same team, but Washington has one of the highest-projected team totals on this slate. They’re projected to score 24 points in this game, which is no surprise since the Cardinals are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing backs. They also surrendered the second-most yards-per-carry last season. We could see Robinson in a workhorse role since Austin Ekeler will miss this game. He’s been productive with Ekeler in the lineup, averaging 15 fantasy points per outing. He’s also had at least 15 touches in every game, but we expect 20 touches to be his floor with Ekeler sidelined.
Jerome Ford saw his workload diminish in Week 2 but bounced back to a 79% snap share in Week 3. That’s what we care about when evaluating Ford because that’s on par with what we saw in Week 1 and the final weeks of last season. That equates to over 50 snaps, with Ford averaging 13 fantasy points per game in the 10 outings he played over 35 snaps last season. He’s also been the goal-line back, making him an enticing option against Vegas. The Raiders have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing backs while surrendering 5.4 yards per carry. That’s the worst mark in the NFL. Ford should be fed in this must-win game.
Most fantasy managers assume this would be a split backfield, but Zack Moss is running away with this gig. The former Indy back has played 78% of the snaps over the last two weeks while handling almost all the goal-line work. He’s also been in on passing downs, averaging 14 fantasy points per game this season. He’s stepped into the Joe Mixon role in Cincy. Mixon was a top-12 back every season he was there. This is no fluke for Moss, though, averaging over 20 fantasy points per game when filling in for Jonathan Taylor in the opening month of last season. The best part of this is the matchup because Carolina has surrendered the most fantasy points to opposing rushers since the start of last season.
Chris Godwin was a top-10 receiver before tearing his ACL. It appears this stud has returned to that form. The Bucs wideout has at least six catches and a touchdown in all three games, averaging 15 fantasy points per game. Most importantly, he has at least eight targets in every outing. That’s the role you’re looking for from a fringe receiver, making Godwin a must-start player in every league. A matchup with Philly only adds to his value because the Eagles allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL last year while surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season.
None of the statistics will make you want to use Pickens, but we’re encouraged by his workload and advanced stats. The talented receiver is one of the league leaders with a 25.4% team target share. That says as much about the Steelers’ style as anything because seeing 18 targets through three games is a massive fluke. Pickens is also one of the league leaders in first-read target shares and air-yards share (49%), which pairs beautifully since he’s also one of the best separators in the NFL. All of that means some upside games are right around the corner. We’re willing to bet that it starts here since Indy is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing wideouts.
This San Francisco offense is as shorthanded as any offense in the NFL, but it led to a career game for Jauan Jennings. The Super Bowl star led all 49ers receivers with an 85% snap share in the absence of George Kittle and Deebo Samuel. Most importantly, he had 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns in the masterpiece. We don’t expect him to duplicate that, but even half of that would make him a must-start player in every league out there. As long as Samuel and Kittle are out, Jennings should be a focal point of this offense. It’s not like New England is a scary matchup, surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers.
The tight end position has been a disaster this season, but Dallas Goedert has been a pleasant surprise. What’s made him so valuable is A.J. Brown‘s absence, leading to Goedert posting career highs in receptions and yardage in Week 3. He finished with 10 catches for 170 yards in that showcase but could be asked to do similar things here since DeVonta Smith also got injured. That will likely make Goedert the top option in this Eagles offense, and we love the matchup with Tampa. The Bucs allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL last season and are 22nd in that number this year.
D/ST
Chicago Bears D/ST vs. LAR
The Bears’ offense has been a disaster, but the defense has been a delight. Chicago ranks 10th in yardage allowed while recording the fourth-most interceptions in the NFL. That’s led to them averaging 12 fantasy points per game, scoring a season-high 24 fantasy points last week. A duplication of that performance could be in play against L.A., with the Rams ranked 19th in yardage and 20th in points scored. They’ve also lost their two best receivers and most of their offensive line due to injuries. That’s why the Bears enter this matchup as a 3.5-point favorite in a game with a 40.5-point total.
I've been writing for 10 years and have been playing fantasy for nearly 20 years. I love NFL, MLB, NBA and AFL. I cover mainly DFS for FantasyPros, and don't have any favorite teams!
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