Pat Fitzmaurice | Fri, Sep 27th 2024, 6:01am EDT

Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 4)

At this point in the fantasy season, it’s easy to fixate on the underachievers.

How could you do this to us, Travis Etienne? Why hast thou forsaken me, Rachaad White? Et tu, Brandon Aiyuk?

It’s easy to dwell on the negative. But let’s have a moment of gratitude for one of the blessings of the new season — the arrival of new stars.

Giants WR Malik Nabers has been a revelation. He might be a top-five receiver already.

Cardinals receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. looks like the real deal, too. He was quiet in Week 1 but went berserk in the first half of his Week 2 game and scored his third touchdown of the season in Week 3.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels put on a show for a national TV audience Monday night in a win over the Bengals. Expect him to be a top-five quarterback in next year’s fantasy drafts.

Raiders TE Brock Bowers might be the first tight end off the board in next year’s drafts. Bowers is what we’d hoped Kyle Pitts would be.

Jets RB Braelon Allen might be stuck in a backup role behind the great Breece Hall, but Allen has looked like a young Derrick Henry (except faster).

Other rookies have flashed, too: Brian Thomas, Xavier Worthy, Bucky Irving, et al.

How nice to see a wave of new stars making such an impact. It’s almost enough to make us forget about the players letting us down.

Almost.

Let’s plunge headfirst into Week 4.

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases. (Hat tip to PFF’s Nate Jahnke for the snap-count data.)

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 4)

Quarterbacks

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Tier 4

Tier 5

Tier 6

We haven’t reached the point where I would suggest benching Patrick Mahomes, but the Chiefs’ highly decorated quarterback hasn’t been the prolific fantasy scorer he used to be. Mahomes has only had one 20-point fantasy performance since Week 8 of last year — a stretch that spans 12 games. In seven of those 12 games, he’s scored fewer than 16 fantasy points. Mahomes might not have to keep the foot on the gas pedal this week with the Chiefs heavily favored over the banged-up Chargers. I’m ranking Mahomes as a low-end QB1 this week, and even that feels generous.

Anthony Richardson is posing a tough dilemma for a lot of fantasy managers. He’s been terrible as a passer so far this season, with three touchdown passes, a league-high six interceptions and a 1970s-era completion percentage of 49.3%. Richardson’s rushing numbers haven’t been as glorious as hoped (117 yards and a touchdown), and he has a rough Week 4 matchup vs. the Steelers. I always err on the side of patience with quarterbacks who have the sort of rushing upside Richardson has, so I’m keeping him in my lineup in the leagues where I have him. He’s still capable of providing 75 rushing yards and a pair of TD runs in any given week. And as bad as the Colts’ passing game has looked, Richardson has connected for some big plays. He’s averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt, which ranks sixth in the league. Keep the faith.

Baker Mayfield flopped against the Broncos last week, throwing for 163 yards with one TD and one INT. But Mayfield is still QB5 in fantasy scoring, and he has a favorable matchup this week against an Eagles defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass. Mayfield had 337 passing yards and three touchdowns when the Buccaneers trounced the Eagles in the playoffs last season.

Derek Carr fooled us for two weeks, but he’s the same midrange QB2 he’s always been, and we were reminded of that last week when the Saints-Eagles game got into the fourth quarter last week and Carr still had under 100 passing yards. I’m ranking him QB16 this week against the Falcons.

Running Backs

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The Panthers came alive last week with Andy Dalton at quarterback. After sputtering with Bryce Young at QB for the first two games of the season, the Carolina offense rolled up 437 yards of offense in its Week 3 road win in Las Vegas. Chuba Hubbard had 21 carries for 114 yards, plus five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown. That’s glorious usage. Yes, Hubbard benefitted from a favorable matchup against the Raiders, but the Bengals aren’t a bad matchup either. Cincinnati ranks 17th in DVOA against the run, allowing the ninth-most rushing yards to RBs. I’m starting Hubbard in a few leagues and feel surprisingly good about it.

Never mind that Tony Pollard laid an egg last week against the Packers, generating 6-14-0 rushing and 3-15-0 receiving. The game script went haywire for the Titans when they fell behind against Green Bay early, forcing them to abandon the run. Pollard should have a much more favorable game script this week against the Dolphins, who are trying to sort out their QB position while Tua Tagovailoa misses time with a concussion. Miami’s defense ranks 31st in DVOA against the run and has given up five touchdown runs to RBs. Fire up Pollard with confidence.

J.K. Dobbins checks in at RB23 in the rankings this week, but I worry about his Week 4 outlook. The injury-riddled Chargers are heavy underdogs against the Chiefs, so Dobbins might not get a run-friendly game script. His quarterback, Justin Herbert, says he’ll try to gut it out this week with a high-ankle sprain. Both of the Chargers’ starting offensive tackles, Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt (a pair of first-round picks) seem unlikely to play on Sunday. It’s a tough setup for Dobbins, although the Chargers may have little choice but to feed him 20-plus rushing attempts and let him try to carry their ailing offense.

Don’t let the Chiefs’ activation of Kareem Hunt deter you from starting Carson Steele this week. Hunt was ineffective last season, averaging 3.0 yards per carry in 15 games with the Browns (though he did score nine TDs). Steele had 17 carries for 72 yards last week, and I think he’ll continue to be Kansas City’s main early-down back. The Chiefs figure to get a run-friendly game script as heavy favorites against the Chargers. Steele got a couple of carries near the goal line last week (including one out of the wildcat formation) but couldn’t get into the end zone. Steele probably needs a touchdown to pay off in any given week because he’s not much of a pass catcher and doesn’t have the speed to be a breakaway threat, but I like his odds to get into the end zone this week.

We might not see a wholesale changing of the guard at running back in Tampa — Rachaad White is too useful as a pass catcher and pass blocker to disappear completely — but Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said that rookie Bucky Irving has earned more snaps. White out-snapped Irving 42-18 last week, but in Irving’s 18 snaps, he had nine carries, ran seven routes and drew three targets. So far this season, Bucky Irving has gotten either a carry or a catch on 54.5 percent of his snaps. White, meanwhile, had six carries and five catches. He’s averaging just 2.1 yards per carry. For this week, I have White ranked RB29, Irving RB31, and I’d prefer to avoid having either in my lineup until the dust has settled in the Buccaneers’ backfield.

Everyone loves rookie Braelon Allen, and the fantasy managers currently rostering Allen seem eager to use him. I just don’t know if we can count on Allen for stand-alone value yet. The usage trends are positive. Allen had two touches in Week 1, nine touches in Week 2, 14 touches in Week 3. The usage spike in Week 3 came in the Jets’ 21-point win over the Patriots, and a blowout win is probably a best-case scenario for Allen’s usage in any given week. We could see a blowout this week with the Jets favored by 7.5 over the Broncos. But it’s dicey to count on a running back who hasn’t played more than 23 snaps in a game this season. Allen is a nice asset to have on your roster, but he’s not an appealing lineup option yet. When the byes arrive next week … maybe.

Wide Receivers

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Diontae Johnson has quickly gone from unstartable to a must-start. Amazing what a QB change can do, isn’t it? Johnson clicked with Panthers QB Andy Dalton last week. Dalton peppered Johnson with 14 targets, and Johnson finished with eight catches for 122 yards and a touchdown. The Carolina receiver had a 38% target share last week and finished second among all receivers in expected fantasy points (per the Fantasy Points Data Suite), trailing only Marvin Harrison Jr. Panthers WR Adam Thielen sustained a hamstring injury last week. The other Carolina receivers are grossly inexperienced, and the Panthers’ tight ends aren’t very involved in the passing game. Week 4 could be a target smorgasbord for Johnson, and he has a nice matchup against a Bengals defense that was just lit aflame by QB Jayden Daniels and the Commanders.

With Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey all missing from the 49ers’ lineup in Week 3, the assumption was that Brandon Aiyuk would step up and have a big game. But Jauan Jennings turned out to be Brock Purdy‘s go-to guy last week against the Rams, catching 11 passes for 175 yards and three touchdowns. Is Jennings playable in Week 4? Affirmative. Aiyuk might get a lot of face time with excellent young Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez. Jennings will see a lot of Marcus Jones, a solid cover man himself, though not as tough a matchup as Gonzalez. The 49ers have great faith in Jennings and showed it in the offseason when they awarded Jennings a two-year contract extension worth more than $15 million, with more than $8 million fully guaranteed. I have Aiyuk ranked higher this week, but Jennings profiles as a low-end WR2 who could once again pay fantasy dividends.

I wish I had words of wisdom for you on Tyreek Hill. Unfortunately, I do not. I over-ranked Hill last week, putting blind faith in Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel to scheme up ways for Hill to get easy completions from backup QB Skylar Thompson. But Thompson turned in a disastrous performance, and as of this writing, it’s not clear who’ll be quarterbacking the Dolphins against the Titans in Week 4. Hill is so absurdly fast that he’s capable of taking it to the house on any given play, but Hill’s normally safe floor has crumbled. I’m ranking him WR24 this week, but I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to bench him for a lower-ranked receiver.

Keep rolling with Terry McLaurin, who finally broke through with a big game in the Commanders’ Monday-night win over the Bengals. McLaurin finished with 4-100-1 on six targets, and he and rookie QB Jayden Daniels finally connected on a couple of long downfield completions — a 55-yarder and a 27-yard touchdown. Daniels and McLaurin have an appealing matchup against the Cardinals in a game that looks like a potential shootout. The Arizona defense ranks 29th in DVOA against the pass.

Khalil Shakir is moving toward must-start territory. He’s pretty clearly the No. 1 receiver for Josh Allen, one of the best quarterbacks in the game. Shakir has a team-high 14 targets. No other Bills receiver has more than seven. Shakir’s target count might be higher if the Bills hadn’t won their last two games by 21 points and 37 points. A hyper-efficient performer both last season and early this season, Shakir has caught all 14 of his targets for 168 yards and two touchdowns. He’s quietly WR17 in half-point PPR scoring. Shakir has scored four touchdowns in his last five games dating back to last season’s playoffs. Shakir might run a lot of his routes against Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey this week — not an easy matchup — but it’s still worth trying to fit Shakir into your lineup.

Darnell Mooney is WR17 in half-point PPR scoring over the last two weeks, averaging 13.5 fantasy points per game. But I only have Mooney ranked as a midrange WR4 this week. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins hasn’t been attacking downfield, averaging just 6.4 intended air yards per pass attempt. And Mooney might see a lot of Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, who is giving up just 0.48 yards and 0.08 fantasy points per route run into his coverage.

Tight Ends

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I’m not ready to give up on Mark Andrews yet and am ranking him TE8 against the Bills. There’s a chance Andrews isn’t 100% physically after undergoing tightrope surgery on his injured ankle late last year. RB Tony Pollard had the same surgery after injuring his foot in the 2022 playoffs and got off to a slow start in 2023. Andrews was also in a car accident that caused him to miss time in training camp. Last week, Andrews played 21 snaps and ran just six routes. There was concern about Andrews after a quiet Week 1, and he bounced back with a solid 4-51-0 stat line in Week 2. Maybe this is misguided optimism, but I’m not ready to wave the white flag on Andrews just yet.

Pat Freiermuth is a reasonable any-port-in-a-storm option at the turbulent TE position. Freiermuth has recorded four receptions in all three of Pittsburgh’s games this season, and he had a season-high 81% snap share last week. Freiermuth hasn’t reached 40 yards in a game this season and is still looking for his first touchdown, but steady usage is a rare thing at tight end these days, and Freiermuth offers it.

It seems safe to use Cole Kmet again. In the preseason and Week 1, Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron was splitting snaps pretty evenly between Kmet and veteran Gerald Everett. But Waldron has come to his senses, realizing that Kmet is a far better player than Everett. Kmet had 10-97-1 last week against the Colts on 11 targets. Granted, Kmet’s big day was fueled by a pass-happy game script that had the Bears in catch-up mode. Still, Kmet is very playable this week as a low-end TE1 against a Rams defense that has given up the fourth-most receiving yards to TEs.

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Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 4)

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 4)

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

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