Pat Fitzmaurice | Fri, Sep 20th 2024, 6:01am EDT

Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 3)

The greatest feeling of accomplishment you can have in fantasy football is overcoming a lousy start to reach the playoffs.

I had a team start 1-5 last year in the King’s Classic, an industry league that conducts its drafts at the Pro Football Hall of Fame during Fantasy Football Expo weekend. That team finished 7-6 and snuck into the playoffs. Never mind that I was summarily bounced from the playoffs in Week 15. It was still a satisfying ride.

A reminder to all of you slow starters: 0-2 is not a death sentence for your fantasy team. If you’re still winless, pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and get to work.

Maybe your team needs a complete overhaul, and you need to aggressively seek out trades. Maybe you just need to patch a hole or two and find the duct tape you need on the waiver wire. Or maybe you have a strong team that has simply run into bad luck in the first two weeks of the season and doesn’t require any tinkering.

Assess the situation honestly and do whatever you need to do.

But don’t give up.

And, hey, I see you, Mr. and Mrs. 2-0. Congrats on the hot start. But don’t spare the self-examination just because you’re off to a hot start. Is your undefeated team actually good, or perhaps a little fluky? If you’re living a lie and getting by on luck, start making roster repairs now before things go sideways.

Enough with the lecture. Let’s dig into Week 3.

As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases. (Hat tip to PFF’s Nate Jahnke for the snap-count data.)

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 3)

Quarterbacks

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Tier 6

And the leading QB fantasy scorer through the first two weeks of the season is … Baker Mayfield? Yes, Baker Mayfield. The Bucs’ quarterback has thrown for 474 yards and an NFL-high five touchdowns. Mayfield also has 55 rushing yards and a TD run. He’s averaging 24.7 fantasy points per game. There was some concern about whether Mayfield would be able to carry over his 2023 success after his offensive coordinator from last season, Dave Canales, left to become the Panthers’ head coach. However, Mayfield has looked comfortable with the new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen. What’s promising for Mayfield’s fantasy outlook is that the Buccaneers might need to throw in order to win. PFF has the Buccaneers’ running game graded 28th in the league so far, and their run blocking graded 24th. RB Rachaad White is averaging 2.0 yards per carry. I’m ranking Mayfield QB11 this week vs. a Broncos pass defense that ranks 31st in DVOA.

Saints OC Klint Kubiak has the New Orleans offense humming. Derek Carr has an absurd passer rating of 142.4 through two games. He’s completing 76.9% of his throws and averaging 11.4 yards per pass attempt. He’s only had to throw 39 passes because of how badly the Saints beat their first two opponents, the Panthers and Cowboys. Despite a long track record of low-end QB2 value, Carr is a solid option this week against an Eagles defense that hasn’t entirely fixed its pass coverage, which was a major shortcoming last season. The Falcons easily zipped downfield on their game-winning TD drive against the Eagles on Monday night. I have Carr ranked QB14.

Brock Purdy is running low on pass-catching weaponry. RB Christian McCaffrey is on injured reserve with a calf/Achilles injury. WR Deebo Samuel is expected to miss multiple weeks with a calf injury. George Kittle reportedly had his hamstring tighten up in practice Thursday, leaving his status up in the air. The 49ers face the injury-riddled Rams and might be able to lean on their running game. Gently fade Purdy this week.

Running Backs

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D’Andre Swift ranks RB40 in half-point PPR fantasy scoring and is averaging 2.0 yards per carry. But Swift has a get-right matchup this week against the marshmallowy Colts run defense, which gave up 159 rushing yards to Houston’s Joe Mixon in Week 1 and 151 rushing yards to Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs in Week 2. The interior of the Bears’ offensive line has been shaky this season, but Chicago’s offensive linemen won’t have to contend with the Colts’ best defender, DT DeForest Buckner, who’s on IR with an ankle injury. Shake off the pain of the last two weeks and start Swift in this tasty matchup.

Devin Singletary has 31 touches (26 carries, five catches) over the Giants’ first two games. The Giants’ other backs, Tyrone Tracy and Eric Gray, have combined for seven touches. The Giants obviously don’t have a high-flying offense, and the Browns are a tricky matchup for NYG this week. But the certainty of workload is the appeal with Devin Singletary. Consider him a low-level RB2.

Could you possibly bench early-season surprise J.K. Dobbins after he ran for more than 130 yards with a touchdown in each of his first two games? In most leagues, probably not. In shallow leagues, it’s at least worth considering. Dobbins faced the Raiders in Week 1 and the Panthers in Week 2 — not the toughest of matchups. This week, he has a road game against the Steelers, who rank 10th in DVOA against the run. Bijan Robinson had 18 carries for 68 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 1, and Denver’s Javonte Williams had 11 carries for 17 yards against the Steelers in Week 2. It seems unlikely Dobbins will reach 130 yards again this week.

The early returns have been disappointing for Zamir White investors, but he gets a dandy matchup this week against the Panthers, who have already given up 399 rushing yards and three TD runs. Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce keeps talking about wanting to feed White the ball, even though the Las Vegas passing game has been clicking. If White disappoints against Carolina, he becomes a cut candidate for fantasy managers.

Jerome Ford is no longer a safe start. D’Onta Foreman started for Cleveland last week, played 27 snaps and had 14 carries. Foreman also got a carry at the 2-yard line. (He fumbled but recovered the fumble himself, and then Deshaun Watson had a TD run on the next play.) The Browns seem to be trending toward a split backfield, and considering how unexciting their offense has been early on, neither Ford nor Foreman are appealing plays for Week 3.

My take on the Kansas City backfield now that Isiah Pacheco is out indefinitely? I’m really only interested in Carson Steele, but I’d prefer to watch from afar this week and not have any of the Chiefs’ RBs in my lineups. Steele is an interesting player. He reportedly clocked a 4.75 at UCLA’s pro day earlier this year. Despite his lack of speed, Steele ran for 1,556 yards and 14 TDs at Ball State in 2022 before contributing 847 rushing yards and six TD runs for UCLA in his final college season. The best-case scenario is probably that Steele becomes the 2024 version of 2014 Matt Asiata, the former Vikings back who had 882 yards from scrimmage and 10 TDs for the Vikings after Adrian Peterson tore his ACL in Week 1. But this could also be an unpredictable jumble with some combination of Steele, Samaje Perine, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (who’s on the non-football illness list but eligible to return in Week 5) and Kareem Hunt.

Wide Receivers

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The outlook for Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is obviously diminished while Tua Tagovailoa recovers from a concussion and Skylar Thompson holds down the fort at quarterback, but Hill (WR7) is still a must-start, and Waddle (WR26) is at least flex-worthy.

Welcome to the circle of trust, Jameson Williams. The 12th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft has become a mandatory start in fantasy leagues. Williams has 10 catches for 200 yards and a touchdown on 20 targets. Granted, we can’t continue to count on this sort of target volume for Williams. Lions QB Jared Goff is leading the NFL in pass attempts with 83. Detroit won’t be this pass-heavy all season, and there will be games where WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and/or TE Sam LaPorta are peppered with targets and Williams has to make do with only a handful of looks. But with his blistering speed, Williams is a dangerous playmaker who can do heavy damage on just a couple of receptions. This has been a fun breakout to watch.

Amari Cooper has a 23.5% drop rate so far this season. He has 17 targets and only five catches. Cooper has been remarkably consistent over his career, so panic-benching him seems shortsighted. Cooper’s matchup against the Giants is nothing to fear. Grit your teeth and start him.

One possible reason Terry McLaurin is off to a slow start: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is averaging just 4.4 intended air yards per pass attempt, according to Pro Football Reference. Washington offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has been criticized in the past for the horizontal nature of his passing attack. But you have to believe that Daniels will be forced to start throwing downfield more aggressively, lest opposing cornerbacks start jumping the routes of Washington’s receivers. McLaurin is a known commodity who has strung together four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Unless you’re in a shallow league, he should remain in your lineup.

The 2-0 Bills have attempted only 42 passes in their first two games. The low passing volume has somewhat obscured the nice start to the season for Khalil Shakir, who’s caught all eight of his targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. Efficiency is Shakir’s calling card. He averages 11.9 yards on 73 career targets. The passing volume could be up for Buffalo this week against a Jaguars defense, which is better against the run than the pass. As the Bills’ primary slot receiver, Shakir draws a nice matchup against Jaguars CB Jarrian Jones, who’s allowing a 75% catch rate and 0.32 fantasy points per route into his coverage.

Will Diontae Johnson perk up now that the Panthers have made a QB change, replacing the struggling Bryce Young with 36-year-old Andy Dalton? I’m cautiously optimistic. Johnson leads the Panthers in targets with 12, but he has just five catches for 34 yards and no touchdowns. In his lone start for the Panthers last year, Dalton completed 34-of-58 passes for 361 yards and two touchdowns in a 37-27 loss to the Seahawks. We obviously shouldn’t expect that kind of a passing bonanza for Carolina this week, but Johnson is certainly a viable lineup option against a Raiders pass defense that ranks 23rd in DVOA.

For now, I’m ranking all the Green Bay receivers as if Jordan Love won’t play against the Titans on Sunday. The Packers’ starting quarterback sprained his MCL in Week 1 but returned to practice this week. The Packers are typically among the more cautious teams in the league with regard to bringing back injured players, and Love is an especially valuable player. If Love is held out again, the only Green Bay receiver I’d consider starting would be Jayden Reed, who had 2-9-0 receiving and 2-37-0 rushing vs. the Colts last week. If Love returns, Reed becomes a must-start, and Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs become playable.

Is Quentin Johnston approaching must-start territory? He’s getting closer, but he’s not there yet. Johnston has the third-highest first-read rate in the league, according to our friends at Fantasy Points. It’s a good sign that the Chargers are intent on making QJ a key cog in their offense. Johnston’s target shares in the first two weeks have been 21% and 32% — another positive sign. But the Chargers have a difficult road matchup against the Steelers on Sunday, and Johnston will see quite a bit of Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr., a top cover man who thus far has allowed only 0.1 fantasy points per route run into his coverage. Keep Johnston on ice for one more week.

Tight Ends

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Monitor the status of George Kittle, whose hamstring reportedly tightened up during practice on Thursday. But don’t bother picking up Eric Saubert or any other tight end if Kittle ends up being out — just expect more of Brock Purdy‘s targets to go to WRs Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings.

The Eagles didn’t have the services of star WR A.J. Brown (hamstring) for their Week 2 game against the Falcons, and yet Eagles TE Dallas Goedert saw only four targets and had three catches for 38 yards. Brown will miss Week 3, which should, in theory, enhance Goedert’s target outlook. In a suddenly bleak TE landscape, I have Goedert ranked TE9.

Mike Gesicki already has 10 catches and 109 yards for his new team, the Bengals. Gesicki had 7-91-0 on nine targets last week vs. the Chiefs, earning a 25% target share. Even with Bengals WR Tee Higgins potentially set to return from a hamstring injury this week, Gesicki is a playable high-end TE2 this week against the Commanders.

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Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 3)

Fitz’s Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 3)

Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

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