Variance is a cruel reality of fantasy football, and never is variance more difficult to reckon with than in the immediate wake of Week 1 games.
But of course, it’s always easier to reckon with when you’re 1-0 than when you’re 0-1.
Week 1 variance grabbed us by the lapels and shook us in the first few hours of the new season, with Ravens TE Isaiah Likely exploding for 111 yards and a touchdown, and Ravens TE Mark Andrews laying a two-catch, 14-yard egg.
And there was more to come. So much more.
With defenses seemingly well ahead of offenses in the first week of the season. NFL teams averaged fewer than 200 passing yards in Week 1. That meant disappointing numbers for a lot of pass catchers — including some who were early-round fantasy draft picks.
Variance is a cruel reality of fantasy football, and never is variance more difficult to reckon with than in the immediate wake of Week 1 games.
But of course, it’s always easier to reckon with when you’re 1-0 than when you’re 0-1.
Week 1 variance grabbed us by the lapels and shook us in the first few hours of the new season, with Ravens TE Isaiah Likely exploding for 111 yards and a touchdown, and Ravens TE Mark Andrews laying a two-catch, 14-yard egg.
And there was more to come. So much more.
With defenses seemingly well ahead of offenses in the first week of the season. NFL teams averaged fewer than 200 passing yards in Week 1. That meant disappointing numbers for a lot of pass catchers — including some who were early-round fantasy draft picks.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, one of the steadiest fantasy performers of 2023, began his 2024 season with three catches for 13 yards.
It was a messy, weird, confusing first week of the fantasy season. And we have 16 more weeks to go.
What should we believe, and what should we disbelieve? Let’s get into rankings and tiers in preparation for Week 2.
As always, feel free to use these tiered rankings as a tiebreaker for your difficult lineup decisions. Beneath the tiers, I’ll offer a few brief thoughts on some of the borderline start/sit guys and some other interesting cases. (Hat tip to PFF’s Nate Jahnke for the snap counts.)
Justin Fields has a wide range of possible outcomes in Week 2 as he continues to play ahead of Russell Wilson, whose backup status may or may not be injury-related. I’m not especially bullish on Fields’s passing outlook against the Broncos this week — or any week for that matter. But Fields has immense rushing upside. He had 14 rushing attempts last week for 57 yards. Since 2022, Fields has averaged 10.3 carries, 64.0 rushing yards and 0.4 TD runs in his starts. I have him ranked just outside QB1 range at QB13.
The Rams’ Matthew Stafford was one of the few quarterbacks to throw for more than 300 yards in Week 1, and his Week 2 matchup against the Cardinals isn’t especially daunting. But I only have Stafford ranked QB14 and worry that I’m still too high on him. Stafford’s supporting cast is injury-riddled. WR Puka Nacua is out, as are two of the Rams’ starting offensive linemen, Steve Avila and Jeff Noteboom. And obviously, Stafford provides very little rushing value.
Anyone else worried about Joe Burrow? A healthy Burrow is one of the best pure passers in the game, but is he completely over the wrist injury that prematurely ended his 2023 season? Burrow kept flexing his wrist during the Bengals’ Week 1 loss to the Patriots. He claims his wrist is fine, but the Week 1 results were less than encouraging: 21-of-29 for 164 yards and no touchdowns. It looks as if Burrow will be without WR Tee Higgins (hamstring) for this week’s matchup against the Chiefs. Burrow is only my QB16 this week.
Caleb Williams threw for 93 yards, had zero touchdowns and averaged just 3.2 yards per pass attempt in his NFL debut. There will inevitably be bumpy weeks for Williams in his rookie season, but there will be boom weeks, too. I don’t especially want to use him this week if I can help it, but I’m still above consensus on him at QB17. It won’t be shocking if we get big numbers from Williams this week in a potential shootout with the Texans.
I don’t expect Christian McCaffrey to play this week after missing Week 1 with a calf/Achilles injury. CMC is immensely valuable to the 49ers. They were able to easily defeat a good Jets team without him, so why risk an aggravation against the less formidable Vikings? In the unlikely event that McCaffrey plays, I’ll still have his backup, Jordan Mason, ranked just inside the top 25 at running back. Mason looked sharp in a heavy-duty role against the Jets, rushing 28 times for 147 yards and a touchdown. If CMC misses this game, Mason is a top-10 option.
The Panthers might have had the NFL’s worst run defense even before they lost their best run defender, DT Derrick Brown, to a season-ending knee injury. Carolina’s offense isn’t potent enough to build big leads, so opponents will be in run-friendly game scripts all year. This week, the Panthers will host the Chargers, who’ll always be eager to run the ball as long as Greg Roman is calling the plays. The Chargers’ offensive line was outstanding against the Raiders last week, helping J.K. Dobbins pile up 135 rushing yards and a touchdown on only 10 carries. Dobbins played 57.8% of the Chargers’ snaps and even ran 17 pass routes, finishing with three catches for four yards. I’m ranking Dobbins as a mid-range RB2 in this A-plus matchup, and I think you can also start Dobbins’ tag-team partner, Gus Edwards, who rates as a midrange RB3 this week.
I’m above consensus on Devin Singletary (RB25), who was erased last week by a bad game script when the Giants fell into a deep hole early in a 28-6 loss to the Vikings. Singletary had 10-37-0 rushing and 4-15-0 receiving. The good news is that he played 50 of the Giants’ 70 offensive snaps. Singletary gets a Week 2 matchup against a Commanders defense that appears to be one of the NFL’s worst.
Why am I still nervous about climbing aboard the Tony Pollard bandwagon after he finished with 18-82-1 rushing against a good Bears run defense in Week 1? Maybe it’s because Titans head coach Brian Callahan seemed almost rueful in his postgame press conference about not having given RB Tyjae Spears more work. Maybe it’s because I think the Jets’ run defense is better than it showed in a Week 1 loss to the 49ers. I have Pollard at RB28 this week, but I suspect that others won’t be tapping the brakes on Pollard the way I am.
Jerome Ford finished RB13 in half-point PPR scoring last week, but it wasn’t exactly a triumphant week. Ford averaged 3.7 yards per carry and 4.2 yards per catch, but boosted his point total with a team-high six receptions and a touchdown. I have Ford ranked RB27 this week. He faces a solid Jaguars run defense, although Ford’s outlook could brighten a bit with the return of starting offensive tackles Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, who were both out in Week 1. Wills and Conklin both returned to practice this week.
I’m going right back to the well with Terry McLaurin, one of my most frequently drafted players of 2024. McLaurin drew only four targets vs. the Buccaneers in Week 1 and finished with two catches for 17 yards. Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingbury used very little pre-snap motion against the Bucs and just lined up McLaurin outside left on most of his snaps. We’d love to see more creative usage of McLaurin, but even if the usage continues to be painfully conventional, McLaurin should be able to successfully do business against the Giants’ outside CB duo of Deonte Banks and Adoree Jackson. Don’t bail on McLaurin, who’s cranked out four consecutive 1,000-yard seasons and is now playing with the most talented quarterback he’s ever partnered with since joining the NFL, rookie Jayden Daniels.
Marvin Harrison Jr. investors shouldn’t panic. It’s worth noting that it was windy in Buffalo for last weekend’s Cardinals-Bills game, which may have deterred Cardinals QB Kyler Murray from more aggressively targeting Harrison downfield. The Bills’ frequent cover-2 looks might have had something to do with it, too. However, I am nevertheless well below consensus on Harrison this week with a WR26 ranking. He’s probably starting for most of his stakeholders this week, but if you’re blessed with outstanding depth at the WR receiver and can afford to wait for a Harrison “prove it” game, that wouldn’t be a bad approach.
Sure, Xavier Worthy drew only three targets and had four total touches in his NFL debut, but how can you not start him after his two-TD performance vs. the Ravens? With his 4.21 speed, Worthy can make his fantasy quota on just one or two big plays. Even if Hollywood Brown returns to action for the Chiefs this week, get Worthy into your lineup vs. the Bengals.
With Puka Nacua on the shelf with a knee injury, Demarcus Robinson becomes the Rams’ No. 2 receiver. Robinson played 72 of the Rams’ 78 offensive snaps Sunday night vs. the Lions and had 4-42-0 on seven targets. Against the Cardinals this week, Robinson will run the majority of his routes against either Sean Murphy-Bunting or Starling Thomas — not exactly daunting matchups. I’m ranking Robinson as a low-end WR3 and believe he belongs in the flex conversation this week. In deeper leagues, Rams WR Tyler Johnson might be playable as well.
I’m not especially eager to play Christian Kirk this week. Jaguars rookie Brian Thomas looked terrific in Week 1 — don’t hesitate to start Thomas this week, by the way — so Kirk is at best the No. 2 option in the Jacksonville passing game, quite possibly No. 3 behind TE Evan Engram. Kirk played 71.7% of the Jaguars’ offensive snaps in Week 1 and saw 12 fewer snaps than Gabe Davis, and this week Kirk is up against a Browns defense that has a deep and talented group of cornerbacks.
Congratulations to Jameson Williams investors on a triumphant Week 1. Williams had 5-121-1 receiving on nine targets, plus a 13-yard run. Unfortunately, he’s now dealing with a minor ankle injury. I’m cautiously ranking Williams as a high-end WR4 this week. That may seem like a dour ranking, but, hey, there are not going to be a lot of weeks where Jamo out-targets both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta.
Ladd McConkey had a solid NFL debut with 3-39-1 on a team-high seven targets, but I’m only ranking the rookie as a midrange WR4 this week. My hangup is that we know the Chargers want to run the ball, and they’ll likely get to indulge that desire this week as six-point road favorites against the Panthers and their feeble run defense. As the Chargers’ top possession receiver, McConkey’s floor appears sturdy, but his ceiling may be limited.
With Jordan Love expected to miss multiple weeks with a knee injury, keep your Green Bay receivers on the bench if possible. The one Packers receiver who’s still borderline-playable is Jayden Reed, simply because Packers head coach Matt LaFleur will try to scheme up touches for the explosive Reed with reverses, screens and other plays that don’t require too much of backup QB Malik Willis.
You’re not really thinking about benching Mark Andrews, are you? Andrews played more Week 1 snaps and ran more routes than fellow Ravens TE Isaiah Likely, the opening-night star. Andrews also lined up either in the slot or out wide on more than three-quarters of his offensive snaps — extremely desirable usage for a tight end. Things simply didn’t work out for Andrews, who drew heavy defensive attention from the Chiefs. He’s still a top-five fantasy tight end, and I’m ranking him as such.
Speaking of Isaiah Likely, he probably won’t have many more games in which he has a 30% target share. For that matter, there probably won’t be many more games this season in which Lamar Jackson throws 40 passes. But Likely can still be a worthwhile starter in fantasy — perhaps a low-end TE1, which is how I’m ranking him this week. The Ravens don’t have abundant firepower at wide receiver. Likely is a tough cover for defenses because he’s too big (6-4, 247) for most cornerbacks and too agile for most linebackers. Likely is a fine option this week if you’re a David Njoku or Jake Ferguson investor (Njoku is out this week, Ferguson questionable), or if you punted the TE position.
Unless you drafted Brock Bowers as a luxury backup to a top tight end, he should be an every-week starter for you. Bowers led the Raiders in targets (8) in his NFL debut, finishing with six catches for 58 yards. Raiders offensive coordinator Luke Getsy lined up Brock Bowers all over the formation in Week 1 — an encouraging sign. I’m ranking Bowers TE7 this week and would play him over Kyle Pitts or Evan Engram.
