Are you ready for the chaos?
We fantasy fanatics always think we’re ready for the madness of a new NFL season, and then watching games on that first Sunday is like jumping into a cold pool. (“Whoa! I wasn’t ready for THAT.”)
Undrafted free agents will pop. Early-round draft picks will flop. Coaches will make decisions ranging from curious to inexplicable. And of course, injuries will pile up at an alarming rate, wreaking havoc with our noble roster-building efforts.
I repeat: Are you ready for the chaos?
Hey, this is what we bought into, right? We know things are going to get nuts. As hard as we try to put the upcoming season in focus throughout the spring and summer, we’re prepared to see things go blurry in a hurry.
Deep breath. Exhale. And if the fates single you out for punishment and get you off to an 0-4 start, don’t take it personally. Every fantasy manager gets slobberknockered by Lady Luck at some point.
Hopefully this weekly article can help you navigate the anarchy. I’ll provide tier weekly rankings and offer a few thoughts on some of the players who figure to be involved in a lot of difficult start/sit decisions.
Week 1 is here. We’ve waited a long time for this. Buckle up and have fun.
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Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Start/Sit Advice (Week 1)
Quarterbacks
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
Tier 5
Tier 6
- Will Levis
- Derek Carr
- Russell Wilson
- Bryce Young
- Aaron Rodgers
- Bo Nix
- Sam Darnold
- Gardner Minshew
- Jacoby Brissett
Two surefire ways to annoy a Philadelphian: (1) Hold up a line at a cheesesteak shop by placing an unconventional order that marks you as an out-of-towner; (2) talk about the Eagles’ 2023 pass coverage. Philly allowed the fifth-most passing yards (4,551) and the second-most TD passes (35) last season, and the Eagles’ pass defense ranked 29th in DVOA. Rookie CBs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean should help, but it’s unrealistic to expect a pair of rookies to turn this into an airtight secondary right away. The Packers have a deep collection of talented young receivers that will test the Eagles’ pass coverage. Even though a game in Sao Paulo will take both teams out of their comfort zones, Packers QB Jordan Love should put up nice numbers in Week 1.
Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence were typically drafted as high-end QB2s all summer, but they could both provide QB1 production in Week 1. Lawrence faces a Miami defense that ranked 22nd in DVOA against the pass last season and lost key players such as DT Christian Wilkins and OLB Andrew Van Ginkel. The Dolphins also saw defensive coordinator Vic Fangio leave for the Eagles, so this is a defense in transition, and Lawrence might be able to exploit it. As for Tua, he lit up the Chargers for 466 passing yards and three touchdowns last year in Week 1. The Dolphins and Chargers combined for 70 points in that game (Miami won 36-34), while the average number of points scored in all other Week 1 games was 39.1. Don’t be nervous about starting either T-Law or Tua.
Matthew Stafford threw for 367 yards and two touchdowns in the Rams’ playoff loss to the Lions last season, but I don’t love Stafford’s prospects against the Lions in the 2024 season opener. Detroit upgraded its pass defense in the offseason, drafting star Alabama CB Terrion Arnold and signing longtime Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis. Protection could be an issue for Stafford with Rams left tackle Alaric Jackson suspended for the season’s first two games for violating the league’s personal conduct policy. His replacement, Joe Noteboom, was graded 69th last season out of the 81 offensive tackles PFF graded. I’m gently fading Stafford this week against his old team.
Another Week 1 fade: Kirk Cousins. The 36-year-old veteran is coming off a torn Achilles, playing for a new team, and facing a nasty Pittsburgh defense that ranked sixth in DVOA vs. the pass last season and can really put heat on opposing quarterbacks with OLB T.J. Watt and his associates. Best to keep Cousins on ice for a week before plugging him into your lineup.
Running Backs
Tier 1
Tier 2
- Jonathan Taylor
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Saquon Barkley
- Derrick Henry
- Travis Etienne Jr.
- De’Von Achane
- Kyren Williams
- Rachaad White
- Isiah Pacheco
- Kenneth Walker
- Josh Jacobs
Tier 3
Tier 4
- Raheem Mostert
- Jerome Ford
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- David Montgomery
- D’Andre Swift
- Zamir White
- Devin Singletary
- Chuba Hubbard
- Brian Robinson
- Tony Pollard
Tier 5
Tier 6
Tier 7
- Antonio Gibson
- Ray Davis
- Bucky Irving
- Khalil Herbert
- Ty Chandler
- Jamaal Williams
- Tyler Allgeier
- Samaje Perine
- Jordan Mason
- Trey Benson
- Alexander Mattison
- D’Onta Foreman
- Tank Bigsby
- Miles Sanders
- Justice Hill
- Kenneth Gainwell
- MarShawn Lloyd
Najee Harris finished RB20 in half-point PPR scoring last season, but he was RB31 after 15 weeks. He finished the regular season on an upswing but padded his numbers with a 133-yard rushing day in Week 18 against a Ravens defense that was resting starters ahead of the playoffs. So, while I’m somewhat skeptical of Najee heading into 2024, I’m in on him for Week 1. His tag-team partner in the Pittsburgh backfield, Jaylen Warren, is dealing with a hamstring injury, though Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has said he expects Warren to be active. Still, expect Harris to carry the bulk of the rushing load that figures to be run-heavy this season based on the playcalling tendencies of new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and one of the thinnest pass-catching groups in the NFL.
I’m above consensus with my RB21 ranking for Denver’s Javonte Williams. He was disappointing last season, averaging 3.6 yards per carry, but he was less than a year removed from surgery to repair a torn ACL. Williams dropped a few pounds in the offseason and looks quicker, and I’m enthusiastic about his pass-catching upside. The Broncos had a league-high 153 RB targets last season, Sean Payton’s offenses always use the running backs heavily in the passing game, and rookie QB Bo Nix was a check-down machine during his college career. And while Payton has a history of committee RB usage, Williams quietly averaged 18.9 touches over a 10-game stretch from Week 7 to Week 16 last season.
We know that De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert are going to split work, but I’m starting the mega-talented Achane unconditionally, and I have Mostert ranked RB22, which makes him a starter in most leagues. Mostert averaged 13.9 carries a game last year. He only caught 25 passes in 15 games, so the workload isn’t ideal. But Mostert is the preferred goal-line back in what should be a high-scoring offense. He’s probably not going to match his 18 TD runs from last season, but Mostert still has considerable TD upside. I have him ranked RB22 this week against the Jaguars.
David Montgomery averaged 22 carries over his first four games of 2023. Don’t expect him to be quite as busy early this season. The Lions used then-rookie Jahmyr Gibbs sparingly last season until Montgomery missed time due to injury, and Gibbs excelled while Monty was on the shelf. After Montgomery came back from a rib injury in Week 10, he averaged 13.7 carries and 1.3 catches over the Lions’ last nine regular-season games and their three playoff games. He didn’t have more than 18 carries in any of those games. Montgomery is a committee back, and while he’s a committee back in a first-rate offense, I view him as more of a flex play than an RB2.
By no means is Chuba Hubbard an exciting fantasy option, but he’s in a pretty good spot this week. With rookie RB Jonathon Brooks on injured reserve and Miles Sanders seemingly out of favor with Panthers management, Hubbard could get something close to a workhorse role against a Saints defense that ranked 23rd in DVOA against the run last season.
The Patriots didn’t do many things well in 2023, but one of the few areas of strength New England had was run defense. The Patriots allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards last season and were No. 3 in DVOA against the run. With ambiguity about how Bengals RBs Zack Moss and Chase Brown are going to split work early in the season, I’m ranking both as low-end RB3s against the Patriots and would prefer not to use either in Week 1.
Wide Receivers
Tier 1
Tier 2
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Puka Nacua
- Chris Olave
- Davante Adams
- Jaylen Waddle
- Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Malik Nabers
- Drake London
- Deebo Samuel Sr.
- D.J. Moore
- Cooper Kupp
- DeVonta Smith
- D.K. Metcalf
Tier 3
- Nico Collins
- Rashee Rice
- Michael Pittman Jr.
- Amari Cooper
- Stefon Diggs
- Terry McLaurin
- George Pickens
- Tee Higgins
- Brandon Aiyuk
- Chris Godwin
Tier 4
- Zay Flowers
- Calvin Ridley
- Diontae Johnson
- Tank Dell
- Keenan Allen
- Christian Kirk
- Courtland Sutton
- Christian Watson
- Jayden Reed
Tier 5
- DeAndre Hopkins
- Xavier Worthy
- Tyler Lockett
- Jordan Addison
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
- Romeo Doubs
- Rome Odunze
- Joshua Palmer
- Brandin Cooks
- Ladd McConkey
- Jameson Williams
- Jakobi Meyers
- Brian Thomas Jr.
Tier 6
- Keon Coleman
- Khalil Shakir
- Gabe Davis
- Rashid Shaheed
- Curtis Samuel
- Jerry Jeudy
- Darnell Mooney
- Adam Thielen
Tier 7
- DeMario Douglas
- Rashod Bateman
- Dontayvion Wicks
- Michael Wilson
- Adonai Mitchell
- Ja’Lynn Polk
- D.J. Chark Jr.
- Mike Williams
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- Demarcus Robinson
Cardinals rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. had a second-round ADP all summer, so his investors are obviously starting him in Week 1. But what about Malik Nabers, whose ADP was midrange to low-end WR2 range? The recommendation here is to start him. He was peppered with targets throughout training camp, and it’s clear that Giants head coach Brian Daboll intends to make Nabers a centerpiece of the Giants’ offense. I know there are concerns about QB Daniel Jones, but I wouldn’t hesitate to start the ultra-talented Nabers against the Vikings.
Brandon Aiyuk was a second or third-round pick in a lot of fantasy drafts, but I actually think there’s a case for benching him in Week 1. Aiyuk only recently returned to practice after a lengthy training camp holdout. He has a brutal matchup against the Jets, who have one of the best cornerbacks in the league in Sauce Gardner and two very good cornerbacks in D.J. Reed and Michael Carter. And I think there’s a case to be made that Aiyuk was being overdrafted all along after averaging a modest 6.6 targets a game last season but making up for it with freaky (and probably unrepeatable) efficiency. I have Aiyuk ranked well outside WR2 territory this week.
The Washington Commanders may well have the worst set of cornerbacks in the league. This is a defense we’ll be targeting with our quarterbacks and pass catchers all season. Mike Evans is obviously a must-start regardless of opponent, but Chris Godwin should be thrust into fantasy lineups this week, too. The Buccaneers are going to ramp up Godwin’s usage in the slot this year, and that’s where he belongs. Godwin is going to see a lot of Commanders rookie slot corner Mike Sainristil — a juicy matchup.
I’m cautiously optimistic that Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba will have a breakout season after a tepid rookie campaign, but I would prefer to monitor JSN from afar this week rather than immediately throwing him into the fray. Smith-Njigba’s usage last season was less than ideal. His average depth of target was just 6.1 yards (according to Pro Football Reference) under former Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. JSN had a 1,600-yard season as a 19-year-old sophomore at Ohio State while sharing a field with Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, so there’s very good reason to believe in his talent. But I nevertheless would prefer to see what new Seattle OC Ryan Grubb’s offense — and his usage of Smith-Njigba — looks like before plugging JSN into my lineup.
I drafted Brandin Cooks fairly often this summer and think he could be a sneaky fantasy value in 2024. Cooks finished WR42 in half-point PPR scoring last season, but from Week 10 on, he was WR14, rolling up 492 receiving yards and six TDs while averaging 9.5 yards per target. CeeDee Lamb figures to soak up a lot of defensive attention, which should make Cooks’ job easier. But the Browns ranked No. 2 in DVOA against the pass last season and have a strong collection of cornerbacks. Keep Cooks on the bench this week.
Tight Ends
Tier 1
Tier 2
Tier 3
Tier 4
- Taysom Hill
- Pat Freiermuth
- Dalton Schultz
- Hunter Henry
- Noah Fant
- Cade Otton
- Jonnu Smith
- Tyler Conklin
- Luke Musgrave
Tier 5
Brock Bowers might be the best TE prospect ever to enter the league, and if you’re on the fence about starting him, I would encourage you to play the rookie. Bowers has been dealing with a minor foot issue but should be good to go for the Raiders’ season opener against the Chargers. Bowers is fast, has terrific hands and is a beast after the catch. He can line up all over the field — in-line, out wide, in the slot or in the backfield — and in Bowers’ limited preseason action, Raiders offensive coordinator Luke Getsy lined him up in a bunch of different spots. Bowers is special, and I don’t think it will take long for him to make an impact.
We’ll have to monitor the status of Kyle Pitts, who was reportedly limited in practice by a hamstring injury this week. Even if Pitts is cleared to play, I’ll have him ranked outside the top 10 at tight end, somewhere near the low-end TE1/high-end TE2 borderline.
Taysom Hill can be streaky. He finished TE10 in half-point PPR scoring last year, but it was a roller-coaster ride. There were four games in which Hill scored more than 14 fantasy points and seven games in which he scored fewer than four fantasy points. I’m optimistic that Hill can pop in Week 1. He’s going to do most of his damage as a runner, and he’ll be facing a Carolina run defense that was dead last in DVOA last year. The Saints have all but screamed to us that Hill is going to have a prominent role in the offense this year. Believe them.
Be careful about starting Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth. On one hand, new Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is a former tight ends coach, and with Smith calling the plays in Atlanta last year, Falcons TEs combined for 174 targets, 114 catches, 1,380 yards and seven touchdowns. On the other hand, Smith seems to like rotating his tight ends. In the preseason, Freiermuth was typically on the field when the Steelers used one-TE sets, but when Pittsburgh went to two-TE sets, Freiermuth usually came off the field, and the Steelers used MyCole Pruitt and Darnell Washington as their two tight ends. Ideally, Freiermuth investors can keep him on the bench for a week and observe how he’s used in Week 1.
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