Fantasy Football Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 4)

With every week that we get further into the season, we have better data available to find the best fantasy football start sit matchups. As always, we will use the Fantasy Points Allowed tool to find the weakest and strongest matchups through three weeks. As that sample size is still a bit small, we can also use the tool to look back at last year’s data. Let’s get started.

Fantasy Points Allowed: Best & Worst Matchups (Week 4)

Week 4 Quarterback Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Caleb Williams (QB – CHI)

Three weeks into his NFL career, Caleb Williams has produced more fantasy points for opposing fantasy defenses than for his managers (don’t fact-check that). Week 3 was a step forward, as he threw for over 350 yards and his first two touchdowns, but it took him a whopping 52 attempts to get there. Williams beats out only fellow first-overall pick Bryce Young in adjusted net yards per attempt at a miserable 2.98. The talent that saw him labeled as a generational prospect has only appeared in flashes, and the Bears’ infrastructure is doing him no favors. With all that said, this could be a big week for Williams. His opponents, the Rams, rank third in the league in points given up to opposing quarterbacks; in 2023, they ranked fourth. At home for the first time since Week 1, it may be time for Williams’ breakout game.

Bad Matchup: Anthony Richardson (QB – IND)

After a massive Week 1 performance, Anthony Richardson has struggled mightily over the last two weeks. His accuracy issues are perhaps even worse than anticipated, and he doesn’t actually run as often as fantasy managers would have hoped, especially outside of designed runs. Despite having 4.4 speed at 244 pounds, Richardson has just six scramble attempts, the same number as Jacoby Brissett. As a result, he has failed to reach double-digit fantasy points since Week 1. That may not change in Week 4, as Richardson has a brutal matchup with the Steelers, who have allowed the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks so far in 2024 at just 9.6 points per game. He still has a huge ceiling in his range of outcomes, but his low floor means it wouldn’t be insane to bench Richardson this week if you have another decent option.

Week 4 Running Back Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Jerome Ford (RB – CLE)

The Browns seem to be flipping coins each week to decide how to use their running backs. D’Onta Foreman saw one snap in Week 1, then led the team in carries in Week 2… before dropping right back to a 16% snap share in Week 3. However, their matchup with the Raiders this week is tempting enough to risk rolling out Jerome Ford, who has seen at least seven carries every week. The Raiders rank second in points allowed to opposing running backs and were just run all over by Chuba Hubbard. Assuming he doesn’t lose Kevin Stefanski’s coin flip, Ford should be able to manage a decent week as Cleveland does everything they can to keep the ball out of Deshaun Watson‘s hands.

Bad Matchup: Zach Charbonnet (RB – SEA)

This is a case of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. Zach Charbonnet has been excellent while filling in for the injured Kenneth Walker, averaging nearly 20 half-PPR points on the back of elite usage. Meanwhile, the Lions have shut down opposing running backs, allowing an insanely low 8.0 points per game to the position. That’s despite matchups with Kyren Williams (12.9 points), Rachaad White (6.0 points) and James Conner (3.0 points). Charbonnet’s usage means he isn’t a must-bench, but Conner and Williams are two of the best-utilized backs in the game, and they still failed to produce much against Detroit’s stifling run defense. Especially given that the Seahawks are underdogs on the road in Detroit, this might be a week to leave Charbonnet on your bench.

Week 4 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Michael Wilson (WR – ARI)

In 2023, the Commanders gave up the second-most points per game to opposing wide receivers (35.4). So far in 2024, that number is 44.7. Kliff Kingsbury’s fast-paced (and suddenly effective) offense and Washington’s terrible secondary have combined to create a perfect storm of fantasy opportunities for opposing receivers. Into that opportunity steps Michael Wilson, fresh off an eight-catch game against the Lions. Especially if Trey McBride doesn’t clear the concussion protocol in time for this matchup, Wilson should eat on the few plays where the Commanders manage to cover Marvin Harrison Jr.

Bad Matchup: Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)

The Jets haven’t actually been a terrible matchup for wide receivers so far this season, as they rank middle of the pack with 23.6 points allowed per game. However, Sauce Gardner and company have earned the benefit of the doubt. In 2023, they allowed just 17.4 points per game to opposing receivers, over four fewer points than any other team. Courtland Sutton may have bounced back from a slow start with a solid game last week, but I’m not starting him in this matchup.

Week 4 Tight End Fantasy Football Matchups

Good Matchup: Hayden Hurst (TE – LAC)

You would have to be desperate to start Hayden Hurst with Taylor Heinicke under center, but many fantasy managers likely are with the current state of the tight end position. The reason Hurst is an option for Week 4 is that the Chiefs’ defense has been outlier-level bad against the tight end position so far this year. We all remember Isaiah Likely‘s huge game in the season opener. Kansas City followed that up by allowing over 150 yards to the combination of Mike Gesicki, Erick All and Drew Sample. They even allowed Kyle Pitts to rack up 59 yards (and had to get away with defensive pass interference to prevent him from scoring a touchdown). Hurst, meanwhile, has been the Chargers’ clear lead tight end with a 64% route participation rate and seven targets through three weeks. This is a bit of a Hail Mary, but he could have a solid outing against a Chiefs defense that clearly forces the ball to opposing tight ends.

Bad Matchup: Hunter Henry (TE – NE)

Believe it or not, Hunter Henry is the TE9 through three weeks of the season. To his credit, he ranks fourth among all tight ends in route participation and is second in target share. Unfortunately, that is not likely to do him much good this week as the Patriots take on Fred Warner and the 49ers. San Francisco’s defense has allowed just 2.3 points per game to opposing tight ends so far this season, so I recommend looking elsewhere, maybe even the waiver wire, this week if you have been relying on Henry.

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.