Mike Fanelli | Thu, Sep 19th 2024, 9:23am EDT

6 Fantasy Football Lineup Landmines: Start/Sit Advice (Week 3)

Arguably, the most frustrating thing in fantasy football is seeing someone in your starting lineup struggle that week. Therefore, the logic behind this article is simple – identify fantasy football lineup landmines.

Fantasy Football Lineup Landmines: Week 3

Jayden Daniels (QB – WAS) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Daniels hasn’t thrown a touchdown in his two-week long NFL career. Yet, he is the QB4 for the season, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game because of his legs. The star rookie has 26 rushing attempts for 132 yards and two touchdowns on the ground. However, his fantasy rushing production dropped 78.9% from Week 1 to Week 2 after failing to score a touchdown in the win over the New York Giants. Daniels has averaged only 205 passing yards per game because of a ridiculously low aDOT (4.9).

While the Bengals have a 0-2 record, their defense has played well. They have held quarterbacks to only 10.5 fantasy points per game this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. Jacoby Brissett had only 121 passing yards and eight fantasy points against Cincinnati in Week 1, which everyone expected. However, Patrick Mahomes scored only 12.9 fantasy points against the Bengals last week despite throwing two touchdowns. Expect Washington to lean on Brian Robinson Jr. on Monday night, limiting Daniels’ upside against a talented defense.

JK Dobbins (RB – LAC) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Everyone is rooting for Dobbins after dealing with multiple massive injuries in his career. He has been the best draft steal so far this year. Dobbins is the RB4, averaging 20.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, totaling 19.6 or more in both contests. The veteran is in a near 50-50 backfield split with Gus Edwards. Yet, he has over 130 rushing yards in both games, averaging 9.9 yards per attempt. However, Dobbins has faced two sub-par run defenses over the first two weeks.

Unfortunately, the former Ohio State star will face his most challenging matchup so far this season on Sunday. The Steelers have one of the top defenses in the NFL every year. They have held running backs to 14.1 fantasy points per game, the fifth-fewest in the NFL. Pittsburgh held Bijan Robinson to 3.8 yards per rushing attempt in Week 1. By comparison, the superstar averaged 6.9 yards per rushing attempt last week. More importantly, the Steelers have allowed the seventh-lowest explosive run rate (2.4%) this season (per Fantasy Points Data).

Aaron Jones (RB – MIN) vs. Houston Texans

Jones was limited in practice on Wednesday with a hip injury he suffered in Week 2. While the veteran running back should play Sunday against the Texans, fantasy players might want to put him on their bench. He scored 17.9 half-point PPR fantasy points in Week 1 against an awful New York Giants run defense, averaging 6.7 yards per rushing attempt. However, Jones struggled against the San Francisco 49ers, totaling 7.3 fantasy points and 3.6 yards per rushing attempt in Week 2. He has another challenging matchup on Sunday.

Houston has an elite run defense, holding opposing running backs to the third-fewest fantasy points per game. Opposing running backs have averaged only 12.7 fantasy points per game against the Texans despite having a touchdown in both contests. The AFC South champions have held their opponents to only a 9% missed forced tackle per attempt rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, Ty Chandler was far more productive in Week 2 than in Week 1. Don’t be surprised if Minnesota has a near 50-50 backfield split moving forward.

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Dolphins placed Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve early this week, keeping him out of the lineup until at least Week 8. Fantasy players saw Hill struggle last week after a massive opening weekend performance. The superstar had three receptions on six targets for 24 receiving yards and 5.1 half-point PPR fantasy points in the loss to the Buffalo Bills. Hill played four games during the 2022 season without Tagovailoa, averaging a 22.4% target share, 26% target per route run rate, and a 36.5% first-round target share (per Fantasy Points Data).

However, he averaged 12.6 fantasy points per game during those four contests, scoring 9.5 or fewer in half the matchups. While Hill is still startable until Tagovailoa returns, fantasy players should glue him to the bench this week. The Seahawks have held wide receivers to 15.1 fantasy points per game over the first two weeks, the fourth-fewest in the NFL. Furthermore, Seattle has two of the highest PFF coverage grade cornerbacks this year – Riq Woolen (84.6) and Devon Witherspoon (70.1). Mike Macdonald will do everything possible to shut down Hill.

Mike Evans (WR – TB) vs. Denver Broncos

Evans was a league winner in 2023 as a mid-round draft pick. The superstar had a top-10 finish, leading to fantasy players drafting him as a high-end WR2 this year. The veteran was outstanding in Week 1 against an awful Washington Commanders secondary, totaling five receptions on six targets for 61 receiving yards, two touchdowns, and 20.6 half-point PPR fantasy points. However, he struggled in Week 2 despite having another appealing matchup, totaling three receptions on six targets for 42 receiving yards and 5.7 fantasy points against the Detroit Lions.

Meanwhile, Chris Godwin is the WR1 over the first two weeks, averaging 21.2 fantasy points per game. He has a higher target per route run rate (37% vs. 23%), target share (32.7% vs. 22.4%), and yards per route run average (4.65 vs. 2.19) despite having a lower route participation rate (70.5% vs. 77%) than Evans (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Evans will spend most of the game shadowed by Patrick Surtain II. The superstar cornerback completely shut down DK Metcalf in Week 1 and George Pickens in Week 2.

Sam LaPorta (TE – DET) vs. Arizona Cardinals

The fantasy football community had high expectations for the Lions offense in 2024. They had one of the more fantasy-friendly units last season, with Sam LaPorta ending the year as the TE1, averaging 11.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, Jameson Williams’ breakout has come at LaPorta’s expense. The second-year player is the TE17, averaging only 4.4 fantasy points per game. More importantly, he has only eight targets over the first two weeks, the fourth-most on the team, and only three more than David Montgomery.

Hopefully, Detroit can get the talented tight end more involved in the offense moving forward. Unfortunately, fantasy players shouldn’t expect that to happen in Week 3. The Cardinals have held tight ends to only 3.1 fantasy points per game, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. More importantly, Arizona has played Cover-3 on 41.9% of their defensive snaps this season, the seventh-most in the NFL. After averaging 0.65 fantasy points per route run against Cover-3 in 2023, LaPorta has averaged only 0.2 this year (per Fantasy Points Data).

Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.

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