Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 3 officially in the books and a lot to recap from ALL the action! My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.
Obviously, I’ll cite data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups, highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about.
And I’d be more than happy to include certain tables where I see they fit and/or there is a demand.
Again, the idea behind the Fantasy Forecast has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets, as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes, they don’t always appear in the normal box score.
Also new this year. An opening trade advice column and more graphics! Courtesy of FantasyPros in-house data scientist Sam Hoppen!
So, without further ado…let’s unveil the Fantasy Forecast for Week 4 to prepare our rosters for future success.
Time to ride the (Breece) lightning once again. Because the forecast calls for a SHOCKINGLY fun Week 4 slate.
Week 4 Fantasy Football Forecast
Jump ahead and check out my advice for each team using the table below!
Trade Advice
I want to voice a couple of points in this week’s trade advice column.
If you are 0-3, with no hope in sight, it’s time to make a deal. Your goal has to be improving your starting lineup, even if it means breaking up an elite player into multiple starting assets. Approach managers who are 3-0, who are more likely to deal given their status atop the league.
The tight end has been brutal this season. Scoring is down across the board, killing tight-end production. So, how can fantasy managers adjust? Well, the field is still wide open for somebody to step up. Recall that Trey McBride hit big last season after being buried on the depth chart. There’s still time to configure a roster with a league-winning tight end. Brock Bowers is that guy. Isaiah Likely could also be that guy, given his weekly upside. And one of my favorite late-round options, Tucker Kraft, will get Jordan Love back soon.
For tight ends to hit their weekly ceilings, we need them to play in high-scoring contests.
Last note: I made a mistake last week when I listed D’Andre Swift as a buy-low. I was looking at the matchup too much and not enough at how Swift had performed this season.
It’s something you need to remember when trading WRs/TEs versus RBs. As pass-catchers, those players will also be more volatile. Up-and-down. Streaky. It’s why I also advocate for selling high and buying low on those positions.
But at RB, it’s different. Because RB values don’t fluctuate, it’s usually more steady… except in the case of a role change. That’s when an RB’s value goes to zero, and it makes more sense to sell low before you hit rock bottom. If you anticipate a role change for an RB being severely reduced, don’t wait. Sell now, even on the low side. Because if that RB loses his job, the value is now ground zero.
Chase upside in trades. If you are sitting at 0-3, you need to take on more risk with some of your trades. After all, what do you have to lose? You already have your back against the wall. Look for players that haven’t hit their ceiling, but still possess untapped upside.
Wide Receiver and Tight End routes run percentage (Week 3)
Running Back Snap Rates (Week 3)
New York Jets
Hold Breece Hall & Garrett Wilson| Add Braelon Allen | Sell Allen Lazard
The New York Jets came out strong behind Aaron Rodgers, who completed 27 of 35 passes for 281 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Rodgers commanded the offense effectively, with multiple receivers contributing to the aerial attack. On Thursday night, he looked spry and fully in command of the Jets’ offense.
Rookie Braelon Allen led the rushing game with 11 carries for 55 yards, while Breece Hall added 54 yards on 16 attempts and a rushing touchdown. Allen looked like an absolute bulldozer, shaking off tacklers with ease. Per Next Gen Stats, the Patriots missed more tackles against the Jets (13) than they did in the first two weeks of the season combined (11).
Both RBs caught passes, with Hall going four for 29 yards on five targets versus Allen’s three catches for 13 yards (three targets).
Understandably, there is panic about Allen’s immediate impact on Hall’s fantasy upside. While I agree with this hurting Hall’s weekly ceiling, Hall can still be a top-five RB for the rest of the season. He remains super involved in the passing game, and the Jets offense is creating opportunities for TDs compared to last season. Fantasy managers should be satisfied enough if splitting touches save Hall for the long haul.
Denver’s another solid matchup for both RBs to find running room. They’ve been a bottom-10 defense versus RBs as rushers and receivers this season.
Tight end Tyler Conklin hauled in six receptions on six targets (17% target share) for 93 yards. Finally, playing all the snaps pays off for the Jets’ tight end. When in doubt, play a tight end that never leaves the field; he had a 95% route participation in Week 3.
Allen Lazard corralled three receptions on three targets (9% target share), 48 yards, and one touchdown. He’s been the TD guy for Rodgers, but it might not last with so many other playmakers. I would be looking to sell high.
Mike Williams grabbed three receptions on four targets (11% target share) for 34 yards. He was targeted twice in the end zone. Williams’ route participation fell slightly (55%) compared to Week 2 (73%), but he was targeted more. Stock up for Big Mike to seize a bigger role down the stretch.
Garrett Wilson produced five receptions on a team-high nine targets (26% target share) for 33 yards. Wilson had a pair of red-zone targets to go with the TD during the game.
The Jets will face Denver at home, followed by the Minnesota Vikings, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Patriots again in Week 8. It’s not a great schedule by any means, so I wouldn’t go overboard looking to acquire anybody from Gang Green through trade.
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New England Patriots
Add DeMario Douglas | Hold Rhamondre Stevenson & Hunter Henry
In a game where New England’s offense struggled to find consistency, Jacoby Brissett completed 12 of 18 passes for 98 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions. Drake Maye also saw some action, finishing with four completions on eight attempts for 22 yards. The Patriots were unable to score through the air, with their top receiver being Demario Douglas, who caught seven of his nine targets (39% target share) for 69 yards.
Antonio Gibson led the rushing attack on the ground with five carries for 29 yards, while Rhamondre Stevenson contributed 23 yards on six carries. Stevenson missed time on the sideline after a big run, as he hurt his finger while stiff-arming a Jets defender. His route participation was extremely low (46% snap rate), which shouldn’t be the expectation going forward. He’s a hold for now, as he is still the focal point of New England’s offense.
The Patriots scored no rushing touchdowns. Tight end Austin Hooper had one reception on four targets (17% target share) for 19 yards. Rookie Ja’Lynn Polk snagged two receptions on two targets (9% target share) for 13 yards. He played less than Weeks 1-2, but that’s likely due to the game being well out of reach.
Hunter Henry was limited to just two catches for nine yards on three targets. His route participation dipped, likely because of the game being a blowout.
The Patriots could not find the end zone offensively, making for a tough outing. The Week 3 outing was what we thought we would see from the Patriots in Week 1. The pass protection is abysmal – and they cannot play from behind in any capacity.
The Jets knew this and blitzed the living daylights out of Jacoby Brissett. Per Next Gen Stats, the Jets’ defense blitzed Brissett on 40% of his dropbacks, the Jets’ highest rate in a game under Robert Salah (since 2021). Brissett faced pressure on 56.5% of all dropbacks (13 pressures), the highest rate Brissett has faced in a game since 2018 (min. 10 attempts). Against the blitz, Brissett took more sacks (3) than he had completions (2 of 7 for 28 yards). Brissett was pressured on 80% of dropbacks against 5+ pass rushers.
That is not good, given their next matchup is on the road as 10-point underdogs against the 49ers. WOOF.
Expect heavy passing volume, albeit with little efficiency, in Week 4. The 49ers are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points through the air versus the 15th-most on the ground.
They will take on a much easier Miami Dolphins team in Week 5, but it’s followed up by the Texans, Jaguars, and Jets again in Week 8. If you want out of the Patriots, wait till after they play the Dolphins to make the move. Or if you can take another “meh” week from Stevenson, buy him dirt cheap with the idea he will be a strong option against Miami at home.
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New York Giants
Add Tyrone Tracy | Buy Devin Singletary | Hold Malik Nabers
The New York Giants earned a solid victory with Daniel Jones throwing for 236 yards and two touchdowns (24/34, 70.6% completion rate) while maintaining a 109.4 passer rating. Jones also contributed on the ground with eight carries for 20 yards.
Devin Singletary led the rushing attack with 16 carries for 65 yards and a touchdown, including a long run of 43 yards to ice the game. He should have scored, but he stopped just short of the goal line.
Rookie Tracy Tracy Jr. chipped in with 23 rushing yards on five carries, and Daniel Jones added another 20 yards rushing. Tracy was involved early out of the backfield, playing 31% of the snaps (season-high) with two catches in the first half.
Note that in the first half, Tracy rushed four times for 18 yards compared to Singletary’s six for three carries. Ahead of a matchup versus Dallas, you aren’t looking to get out of Singletary. But if someone is willing to trade an arm and a leg for Singletary (a JAG running back for most of his career), this would be the perfect opportunity to sell high. Tracy’s routes have increased for three straight games.
Singletary showed his versatility, adding 43 receiving yards on four catches, a 68% snap rate for a low-key bell cow. However, it does seem like Tracy could push Singletary in some capacity. But with Dallas, Seattle, Cincinnati, and Philadelphia in the upcoming stretch, Singletary might be a sharp buy-low without the price tag attached.
In the receiving game, rookie Malik Nabers was heavily involved with 12 targets, catching eight passes for 78 yards and two TDs.
Wan’Dale Robinson followed closely behind, converting eight targets into seven receptions for 61 yards. Jalin Hyatt had a deep shot that fell incomplete, but he was well behind Darius Slayton as the Giants’ WR3.
Per Next Gen Stats…
Nearly all of Nabers’ production came from wide alignment (nine targets, seven receptions, 70 yards, two TD on 21 routes) compared to the slot (three targets, one reception, 8 yards on 13 routes). Nabers also accounted for 56.9% of the Giants’ team air yards, his 2nd-straight game over the 55% mark (78.6% in Week 2 against the Commanders).
Nabers was targeted twice in the red zone, both for scores. He also took a jet sweep for a fourth-and-one conversion. As we said all preseason, he is the Giants offense. And as a result, the rookie is the fantasy WR1 overall (pending MNF). After all, he leads the NFL in target share at 35.5%.
Rookie tight end Theo Johnson‘s usage remained near elite (80% route participation), and he came close to a red zone touchdown from Jones.
New York will host Dallas, Seattle, and Cincinnati next three games.
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Cleveland Browns
Buy Jerome Ford | Buy/Hold Amari Cooper | Hold D’Onta Foreman
Deshaun Watson passed for 196 yards and two touchdowns on 21/37 passing (56.8% completion) with a passer rating of 89.5. But he was constantly under pressure.
Jerome Ford led the rushing attack, carrying the ball 10 times for 37 yards. Watson also chipped in 26 rushing yards on four carries, while D’Onta Foreman added two carries for 5 yards. But Foreman’s usage reverted to Week 1, where he played 16% of the snaps to Ford’s 79%
When the Browns trail, it’s Ford. If they are winning, it’s Foreman. Ford has a 70% or higher snap share in two of three games this season. Both losses.
In the receiving game, Amari Cooper was the primary target, commanding 32.4% of the target share (12 targets), hauling in 7 catches for 86 yards, and scoring two touchdowns. He saw 128 air yards and FINALLY converted it into production. Trust the process, folks. And note that if you have been dealing with Cooper’s ups and downs, NOW is the time to get off the ride if you choose. However, Deshaun Watson has shown the ability to at least support one pass-catcher weekly, and it will usually be Cooper.
The Browns will play the Raiders in Las Vegas, followed by Commanders and Eagles-three bottom-10 pass defenses. Hold the Cooper LINE if you want to keep the roller coaster ride going.
Jerome Ford was also active in the passing game, catching all three of his four targets (10.8% target share) for 33 yards. Ford has to be the buy here, given his upside with such a full workload (aside from goal-line usage). I think it’s smart not to just flat-out drop Foreman, given the Browns will hardly be viewed as massive underdogs against either the Raiders or Commanders the next two weeks.
Tight end Jordan Akins was also involved, with seven targets (19% target share) and 29 yards on four catches. He saw a bump in route participation (53% versus 73%) from Week 2. Jerry Jeudy contributed 27 yards on four catches from his seven targets (18.9% target share). Elijah Moore caught two of three targets for 17 yards, and Cedric Tillman had one catch on two targets (5.4% target share) for 4 yards.
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Chicago Bears
Buy/Hold Rome Odunze | Sell De’Andre Swift & D.J. Moore | Add Roschon Johnson & Cole Kmet
Caleb Williams threw for 363 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions on 33/52 passing (63.5% completion), earning a passer rating of 80.8. He completed a Hail Mary at the end of the first half to D.J. Moore that did not result in a TD.
Per Next Gen Stats, Williams was efficient on quick passes, completing 19 of 22 passes for 115 yards and a touchdown; however, Williams struggled on in-rhythm dropbacks (2.5 to 4 seconds), completing just 11 of 23 passes for 178 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.
In the rushing game, Roschon Johnson led the team with eight carries for 30 yards, followed by D’Andre Swift, who rushed 13 times for 20 yards. Khalil Herbert contributed nine yards on four carries. Part of his lack of efficiency is based on where he is seeing carries. Herbie has been strictly used as the Bears’ short-yardage back. All of Herbert’s red-zone attempts were inside the 5-yard line. But he only played 10% of the snaps.
Swift did have two red-zone carries in this contest. Each went for negative eight yards. Woof. To make matters worse for Swift, Johnson was active (Travis Homer inactive), allowing RJ to see two red-zone carries as well. Johnson played 37% of the snaps in his season debut. Re-watching this game, you could barely tell Swift is the “starter.” He also dropped another while Johnson was soaking up targets in the second half. Those points still count.
It’s beyond over for Swift at this point. If he couldn’t get it done in this layup matchup, it won’t happen for him in 2024. Sell LOW.
On the receiving end, rookie Rome Odunze led the team with 21% of the targets (11), hauling in six receptions for 112 yards. But the rookie could have had an even BIGGER day. 234 air yards. His stats were boosted by the sheer volume Williams was pumping out. Fifty-two attempts are not the norm. I hate to be the one who is bearish on a rookie wide receiver breakout (especially for a top-10 pick), but this one game will be hard to duplicate. Three Bears WRs saw double-digit targets without Keenan Allen available.
The move might be to hold onto Odunze and instead sell D.J. Moore. Moore saw just 19.2% of the target share (10) with eight receptions for 78 yards (three red-zone targets). Again, the Hail Mary grab boosts his final box score. Sell high. And if it’s not this week that you can get a strong return, wait until AFTER they play the Rams and their 32nd-ranked pass defense. The Panthers are also a solid matchup in Week 5.
Cole Kmet was also a key contributor with a 21.1% target share (11), catching 10 passes for 97 yards. The Bears tight end was targeted thrice in the red zone and scored.
Finally, he’s being deployed in a usable manner (81% snap rate)-enough of the Gerald Everett nonsense. Kmet’s route participation reached a season-high (70%) in Week 3.
Roschon Johnson was involved in the passing game, receiving five targets (9.6% target share) and catching four for 32 yards. DeAndre Carter added three receptions on six targets for 22 yards, while D’Andre Swift had four targets (7.6% target share). 2 catches for 22 yards on a 53% snap rate. His snaps have dropped for three straight weeks. Not good.
Carter had a pair of red-zone targets during the game. I would expect Keenan Allen to inherit this role upon his return. Allen commanded a 28% target share in one game this year.
The Bears will face the Rams, Panthers, and Jaguars until their Week 7 bye week. I think this offense is going to struggle until they can make some systematic changes. Moving away from offensive coordinator Shane Waldron would be a start.
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Indianapolis Colts
Drop Adonai Mitchell | Add Josh Downs | Buy Anthony Richardson
Anthony Richardson threw for 167 yards on 10/20 passing (50% completion), with no touchdowns and two interceptions. Richardson finished with a passer rating of 39.9. He fell just short of the goal line twice, killing his fantasy value in this matchup.
Per Next Gen Stats, he also had the quickest time throwing this season versus Chicago.
Jonathan Taylor led the ground attack, rushing 23 times for 110 yards (4.8 YPC), with two rushing TDs. Richardson added 24 rushing yards on eight carries, and Trey Sermon contributed 16 yards on two carries with another rushing TD. Taylor had four opportunities in the red zone to Sermon’s two. All of Taylor’s red-zone attempts were inside the 5-yard line. His snap rate was back up to 88%.
Alec Pierce led the receiving corps in yardage with 10% of the targets (two), catching one for 44 yards. Tight end Kylen Granson had one target, grabbing one reception for 40 yards. Michael Pittman Jr. saw 25% of the targets (five), hauling in four receptions for 36 yards. Jonathan Taylor had 10% of the target share with one catch for 25 yards. Josh Downs contributed with a 25% target share (five) and caught three passes for 22 yards. Mo Alie-Cox, Ashton Dulin, and Adonai Mitchell were also targeted once each, with no receptions.
Downs returned to a full-time role (72% route participation), while Pierce/Pittman remained staples on every down. Mitchell’s role tanked (9% route participation) in Downs’ return. He can be dropped in shallower formats.
One of the biggest issues with the Colts is the severe lack of number of plays. They can’t get opposing offenses off the field because their run defense is so bad. And when they get on offense, their QB can’t string together drives based on his limitations as a passer. The Colts are last in time of possession (21:36) and in plays per game (50). Thirty minutes/60 plays per game is the league average.
If you own the Colts, you are hurting. JT has been fine with his all-purpose role. But the passing game is worrisome. Unfortunately, things won’t improve this week against the Steelers in Week 4.
The Colts need high-scoring game environments to unlock this passing game. Week 5 at Jacksonville is promising, but it gets grim again with the Titans. The Dolphins and the Texans represent solid spots for him to be a fantasy producer in Weeks 7-8.
The Steelers are “the” pass funnel defense. Downs saw a strong target share in his first game back. Add him if you need a WR play in Week 4. The second-year WR was targeted on 31% of his routes in Week 3 – same as Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman still has a top-10 target share this season (27%), but he cannot overcome the lack of sheer volume and lack of passing efficiency from his quarterback. You just need to sit tight with him on your bench or move him in a package deal.
As for Anthony Richardson, he’s going through some Justin Fields-level growing pains as an NFL quarterback. Like I said before, he was close to two rushing TDs and actually rushed for a season-high eight carries in Week 3. Last week was the combination of no TDs and horrible interceptions that are leaving fantasy managers pissed. But that’s why he’s a buy-low. You can easily acquire a quarterback with a top-5 upside (see Week 1) for next to nothing. Buy low, and stash him on your bench.
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Houston Texans
Hold Cam Akers | Buy Texans WRs
The Texans’ passing game was led by C.J. Stroud, who completed 20 of 31 passes for 215 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions and finished with a passer rating of 68.6.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Vikings blitzed C.J. Stroud on over half of his dropbacks in the first half (54.4%). In the second half, the Vikings dialed back the aggression and sent 5+ pass rushers on just 27.3% of Stroud’s dropbacks. Stroud struggled against the blitz, completing 9 of 15 for 103 yards, a touchdown, and an interception (-15.6% CPOE).
On the ground, Cam Akers led the rushing attack with nine carries for 21 yards (2.3 YPC). Stroud added 12 rushing yards on three carries. Per Next Gen Stats, the Vikings contacted ball carriers behind the line of scrimmage on 8 of the Texans’ 11 designed runs (73%).
The Vikings have been aggressive against the run this season, creating contact behind the line of scrimmage on over 50% of designed runs in all three games.
Stefon Diggs was the Texans’ leading receiver, seeing 29% of the targets (12) and catching 10 passes for 94 yards. Unlike in previous weeks, Diggs was finally used downfield with 93 air yards.
Nico Collins accounted for 24% of the targets (10), with four catches for 86 yards. The Texans receiver had four looks in the red zone but didn’t convert any for scores.
Tank Dell had 14% of the targets (six), securing five catches for 62 yards. Dell had a pair of red-zone targets during the game but did not score. He is also dealing with a rib injury. Dell has struggled to emerge from the crowded Texans WR room with just a 16% target rate per route run.
Dell and Collins are a combined 0-for-7 on red-zone TD conversion rate. Diggs has caught two of his three red-zone targets for TDs.
You take advantage of any chance you can get to buy low on any of these WRs. The Jaguars’ defense is easy to beat through the air rather than on the ground. And who can pass up rostering Diggs in an upcoming ‘revenge’ game against Buffalo in Week 6?
Dare Ogunbowale caught both of his targets for 28 yards, while Robert Woods also hauled in both of his targets for 18 yards.
Dalton Schultz saw five targets, catching two passes for 11 yards. Akers was targeted thrice and caught the Texans’ lone TD. Akers wasn’t great in his debut, but he drew a tough matchup. Don’t drop him until Joe Mixon proves he is back to full health.
They split snaps 43% for Akers and 41% for Ogunbowale. The latter ran more routes as was to be expected.
Houston will play the Jaguars, Bills, and Patriots over the next three weeks.
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Minnesota Vikings
Add Jalen Nailor | Buy Sam Darnold
The Vikings’ offense was led by Sam Darnold, who completed 17 of 28 passes for 181 yards and four touchdowns and had a passer rating of 119.2.
Per Next Gen Stats, all four of Darnold’s touchdowns came on short passes (between 0 and 10 air yards), against four-or-fewer rushers and man coverage – three came against the Texans in cover 0. Darnold was also effective when operating from the pocket, completing 10 of 19 passes for 132 yards and three TDs on dropbacks over 2.5 seconds. Darnold now has six touchdown passes on the season on dropbacks over 2.5 seconds, most in the NFL.
Aaron Jones took control in the rushing attack with 19 carries for 102 yards, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Ty Chandler added 13 yards on seven carries. Jones received four carries inside the 20-yard mark. Chandler has played exactly 35% of the snaps each week this season.
Jones contributed as both a rusher and receiver, seeing 21% of the targets (six) and catching five for 46 yards and one TD. Big swing and miss last week, looking to “sell-high” on Jones. He roasted a great Texans run defense.
Jalen Nailor accounted for 18% of the targets (four), recording three catches for 31 yards and another TD score. He ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks.
Justin Jefferson led the receiving corps with 29% of the targets (eight), catching six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown (three red-zone targets).
Brandon Powell was targeted twice, catching one pass for 13 yards. Johnny Mundt also scored on one of his three targets (twice in the red zone).
Minnesota will take on the Packers and Jets (London) before a Week 6 bye. If you are hurting at tight end (aren’t we all), it might make some sense to test the trade market on T.J. Hockenson.
Per the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool, Minnesota has the No. 1 schedule for QBs for the rest of the season.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Add Johnny Wilson | Hold Dallas Goedert
The Eagles’ offense was driven by Jalen Hurts, who completed 29 of 38 passes for 311 yards and no touchdowns but threw one interception. He posted a passer rating of 88.8. Hurts also added 25 yards on eight rushing attempts.
Saquon Barkley was the primary rusher, gaining 147 yards on 17 carries, with a long run of 65 yards and two TDs. Tackle Lane Johnson left the game dealing with a concussion.
Dallas Goedert was the standout in the receiving game, commanding 29% of the targets (11), catching 10 passes for 170 yards (career-highs), including a long reception of 61 yards. DG stepped up massively and needs to be held onto, given the injuries to the WRs in Philadelphia.
DeVonta Smith saw 26% of the targets (10) and made seven catches for 79 yards with 132 air yards to boot. He left the game with a concussion.
Barkley also contributed in the passing game with four targets but only managed 9 yards from four receptions. Kenneth Gainwell chipped in three targets, as did Jahan Dotson (two for eight yards). Dotson is doing exactly what he did last season, running routes to no avail. Even if Smith is out in Week 4, don’t be fooled that the former Commanders’ WR will command a worthwhile target share. He has the lowest target rate per route run of any player this season with a target. Parris Campbell isn’t far behind.
Campbell might be the better option, given he would take over slot routes (86% slot snap rate) in Week 3.
However, rookie Johnny Wilson offers intriguing size and did start in Week 3 along with Dotson and Smith. He caught his first career reception. Wilson is the upside play among these ancillary Eagles WRs.
Philly will play the Buccaneers, followed by a bye week in Week 5. Expect A.J. Brown to be out with his hamstring injury until at least Week 6.
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New Orleans Saints
Buy Rashid Shaheed | Add Juwan Johnson | Hold Derek Carr
Derek Carr struggled in this game, completing 14 of 25 passes for 142 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, with a passer rating of 69.1. The Saints leaned heavily on Alvin Kamara, who carried the ball 26 times for 87 yards, but no touchdowns. Kamara had four carries in the red zone with an 86% snap rate (by far a season-high).
The Saints lost starting center Erik McCoy early in the contest. His absence was felt.
Per Next Gen Stats, Carr was pressured on 11 of 27 dropbacks (40.7%), good for his highest pressure rate faced in a game this season. Carr was pressured on just 24% of dropbacks in Weeks 1-2, the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL. Carr and the Saints struggled with play action in Week 3, as he completed just 2 of 6 such attempts for 5 yards.
In the passing game, Chris Olave led the team with 24% of the target share (six), hauling in six catches for 86 yards, with a long of 29 yards and one TD score. Alvin Kamara contributed as a dual threat, receiving 12% of the targets (three), and catching all three passes for 40 yards. Mason Tipton also had three targets, catching two passes for 11 yards.
Rashid Shaheed was targeted five times but goose-egged. He was close to a couple of big plays/scores, but Week 3 was not his day. He still accumulated over 100 air yards with a 53% air yards share. Buy low. The Eagles weren’t the zone-heavy matchup fantasy managers wanted Shaheed in. The Atlanta Falcons – 11th in zone coverage per FantasyPoints Data Suite – is the spot for a major bounce back. They rank in the top 5 in Cover 3 and 31st in pressure rate.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Falcons have pressured opposing quarterbacks on just 20% of dropbacks, marking the second-lowest pressure rate through the first three weeks of a season since pressure was introduced in 2018. The Saints offensive line has allowed a 14th-lowest 31.4% pressure rate and has surrendered just three sacks, tied for the second-fewest entering Monday night.
It’s the exact recipe for a Derek Carr-Rashid Shaheed bounce-back effort. After Atlanta, New Orleans plays KC, Tampa Bay, and Denver.
Although neither tight end was heavily involved, Foster Moreau dominated the snaps over Juwan Johnson for the third straight week. However, Johnson did run more routes for the first time this season.
According to the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool, New Orleans has the No. 2 schedule for quarterbacks for the rest of the season.
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Los Angeles Chargers
Buy J.K. Dobbins & Ladd McConkey | Sell Quentin Johnston
Justin Herbert led the Chargers’ passing attack, completing 12 of 18 passes for 125 yards and one touchdown, with a passer rating of 105.1. Taylor Heinicke came in and went 2-for-2 with 24 yards after Herbert left with an injury (stayed on the sidelines). After the game, it has been reported he re-aggravated his high-ankle sprain.
The Chargers’ ground game was spearheaded by J.K. Dobbins, who carried the ball 15 times for 44 yards but failed to find the end zone. Gus Edwards chipped in with three carries for 9 yards. It was a disappointing day for Dobbins, but he earned all the yardage available in the tough matchup. He also caught three targets for 10 yards. Joe Alt also left the game late with an injury of sorts.
I guarantee the Dobbins manager is in full panic now. But here’s where you can buy low. Because even though the yardage wasn’t great, the rushing share heavily favored Dobbins over Edwards. Remember that the carry totals were 27 (Dobbins) and 29 (Edwards) entering Week 3.
Dobbins hit a season-high 65% snap share in Week 3.
Per the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool, the Chargers have the No. 4 schedule for RBs rest of the season.
In the passing game, rookie Ladd McConkey led with 25% of the target share (six), catching three passes for 44 yards. Quentin Johnston saw just 8% of the targets (two) and turned his limited opportunities into 44 yards and a touchdown where he was wide-open. He can only catch so many wide-open touchdowns, folks.
McConkey, meanwhile, ranks 15th in target share at 26%.
Will Dissly also contributed three receptions for 19 yards on a 12% target share (three targets). Still ran fewer routes than Hayden Hurst, so don’t go chasing.
McConkey and Johnston were the top two leaders in routes run, with the rookie slot WR seeing a season-high route participation (88%). Simi Fehoko was the WR3, with Joshua Palmer inactive. He commanded close to 90 air yards.
LA will play the Chiefs in Week 4, followed by a Week 5 bye. Because of the early bye week, I wouldn’t bank on Herbert suiting up to risk further re-injury.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Hold Najee Harris | Add Cordarrelle Patterson | Buy Pat Freiermuth
Justin Fields led the Steelers’ passing attack, completing 25 of 32 passes for 245 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, posting a passer rating of 96. He rushed six times for six yards and another score.
Najee Harris was the primary ball carrier on the ground, rushing 18 times for 70 yards but did not find the end zone. Harris had four opportunities in the red zone. He saw a season-high 59% snap share in Week 3.
Cordarrelle Patterson added 33 rushing yards on four carries, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt. Jaylen Warren was limited to just 5 yards on three carries. Harris caught all 5 of his targets for 16 yards. Warren had one catch for -4 yards. Patterson also earned five targets for three catches and 15 yards. Warren was seen limping after the game. It’s a knee injury. Not good. We could see Patterson take on the Warren receiving role if the latter misses time.
Patterson could see an even bigger role as a rusher in Week 4, given that Harris has his arm in a sling. Pittsburgh’s other RB on its practice squad is Jonathan Ward.
The Steelers will face the Colts and Cowboys in their next two games, arguably the league’s two worst run defenses. Then it’s LV, NYJ, and NYG.
In the passing game, Calvin Austin III saw 16% of the target share (five), catching four passes for 95 yards, including a long 55-yard TD. However, he still ran fewer routes than Scotty Miller. But there was a large shift in the WR room as Van Jefferson barely played. Unless Roman Wilson gets healthy, Austin has his sights set on the WR2 role. However, these ancillary pieces won’t hit very often in the league’s most run-heavy offense.
George Pickens led in target share with 22% (7), hauling in five passes for 57 yards. He is second in the NFL in air yards share (49.9%). Always a buy-low WR if and when the Steelers need to let loose offensively.
Pat Freiermuth added 33 yards on four catches, with a 16% target share (five). Muth hit a season-high 88% route participation.
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Denver Broncos
Sell Javonte Williams | Add Troy Franklin, Tyler Badie, & Jaleel McLaughlin
Bo Nix handled the Broncos’ passing, completing 25 of 36 passes for 216 yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions, posting a passer rating of 85. He also contributed 47 rushing yards on nine carries and one rushing touchdown.
On the ground, Tyler Badie led the rushing attack, carrying the ball nine times for 70 yards, including a long run of 43 yards. Jaleel McLaughlin (five for seven yards and one TD) and Javonte Williams (five for 12) combined for 19 yards on 10 carries (51% snap rate).
McLaughlin replaced Williams on attempts inside the 5-yard line after Williams failed to score (although it looked like he broke the plane, he was not credited with the score). Williams finished with two attempts inside the 5-yard line. He also lost a fumble. After that fumble, Williams had one carry.
At least he did catch all four of his passes for 29 yards. McLaughlin only had one target on a 26% snap share.
Badie flashed a bit last week and showed out again in Week 3. Expect his snaps to increase in Week 4. He played 19% of the snaps against Tampa Bay. It’s not so much that he was used early but that he was GOOD. He ripped off a 43-yard run in the fourth quarter as Denver was looking to eat the clock.
Per Next Gen Stats, the interior of the Broncos offensive line – Ben Powers, Quinn Meinerz, and Luke Wattenberg – did not allow a single pressure against the Buccaneers’ pass rush. Tampa Bay did not have DT Vita Vea in this matchup.
In the passing game, Courtland Sutton led the team in targets with 31% (11), securing seven receptions for 68 yards and over 100 air yards.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey saw 22% of the target share (eight), catching six passes for 37 yards. Josh Reynolds contributed 36 receiving yards on two catches with 6% of the target share (two targets).
Troy Franklin also saw five targets, catching two for 11 yards. He got the nod over Devaughn Vele, who was seemingly a healthy scratch after logging full practices on Thurs/Fri leading up to Sunday. Franklin had a pair of red-zone targets during the game while being targeted on 42% of his routes.
Stock up for the rookie to see that he has usurped Vele on the depth chart.
I have to say that you need to take a lot of Broncos’ offensive usage with a grain of salt. Sean Payton is unpredictable. For example, although Lucas Krull was inactive, Greg Dulcich‘s route participation tanked. Marvin Mims ran a season-high in routes despite them winning nearly the entire contest. Tread lightly.
Denver will play at the Jets, Raiders, Chargers, Saints, and Panthers in their next five games.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sell Rachaad White & Baker Mayfield | Add Bucky Irving | Drop Jalen McMillan
Baker Mayfield led the Bucs’ passing attack, completing 25 of 33 passes for 163 yards, with one touchdown and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 83.3. On the ground, Bucky Irving took the lead in rushing with 70 yards on nine carries (7.8 yards per carry), but he didn’t find the end zone. Rachaad White added 17 rushing yards on six carries while playing a massive 74% snap share. He was also stuffed at the 1-yard line, which would have salvaged his fantasy day.
Irving’s snaps were relatively the same as the last two weeks (32%). Despite White’s struggles, the team has not reduced his snaps. However, this will likely change going forward. Todd Bowles has seen enough White rush attempts to realize Irving needs more carries. White still has value in PPR as a pass-catcher, but his rushing can’t be relied on. And Irving isn’t a zero in the passing game, either.
In the receiving game, Chris Godwin was the most targeted player, securing six of his nine targets for 53 yards, representing a 27% target share and 48% air yards share. Through three games, he ranks fifth in the NFL in target share (29%).
Cade Otton, the tight end, caught seven of his eight targets for 47 yards (27% target share). White contributed in the receiving game with five receptions for 18 yards on six targets (15% target share), while Mike Evans had two catches for 17 yards on three targets (9% target share). Irving also had three catches for 14 yards on three targets.
Per Next Gen Stats, Patrick Surtain shadowed Evans on 24 of his 34 routes (70.6%), allowing just one reception for 8 yards on a single target as the nearest defender in coverage.
Jalen McMillan has just an 8% target rate per route run this season. He needs an injury to be relevant.
Tampa will host the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4, followed by the Falcons, Saints, Ravens, and Falcons again.
Keep this in mind with Baker Mayfield: Per the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool, Tampa Bay has the worst schedule for QBs for the rest of the season.
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Green Bay Packers
Buy Josh Jacobs & Packers WRs | Add Emanuel Wilson & Tucker Kraft
Malik Willis led the Packers with 202 passing yards, completing 13 of 19 passes, including one touchdown and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 120.9. He also contributed significantly in the run game, rushing for 73 yards on six carries, averaging 12.2 yards per carry. Emanuel Wilson and Jacobs took on the bulk of the running back duties, with Wilson rushing for 50 yards on 12 carries and Jacobs adding 43 yards on 14 carries. Jacobs failed to score despite three more red-zone carries.
Eventually, touchdown regression will happen. He and Najee Harris are tied for the NFL lead in red-zone carries without a TD.
Wilson carved out a 41% snap share in Week 3. Jacobs only played 52% of the snaps. Jacobs’ snaps have dropped for three straight weeks.
In the receiving game, Christian Watson led with 67 yards and a touchdown on two targets, accounting for an 11% target share. Jayden Reed was the most targeted player, securing four of six targets for 50 yards (32% target share).
Emanuel Wilson contributed in the air with two receptions for 35 yards on two targets (10.5% target share) with a touchdown catch, while Tucker Kraft had 24 receiving yards on three targets (16% target share). Kraft left the game briefly but returned. He still dominated the snaps over Luke Musgrave. Kraft was also targeted at a 31% clip.
Romeo Doubs had one catch for 18 yards despite leading the team in routes run.
The Packers had to transform their identity on offense when Jordan Love got hurt. But he is expected to return in Week 5, making all Packers WRs great buy-low targets.
Reed is my favorite, as he looks like the clear target leader in the offense (team-high 21% target share).
The Packers will play the Vikings, Rams, and Cardinals in their next three contests.
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Tennessee Titans
Buy Tony Pollard & Calvin Ridley | Sell DeAndre Hopkins
Will Levis had an up-and-down performance, completing 26 of 34 passes for 260 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He finished with a passer rating of 92.8. Levis also contributed 12 rushing yards on three attempts. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears handled most of the rushing duties, though the ground game struggled, with Pollard gaining just 14 yards on six carries. Spears had just two carries for 7 yards. Pollard still dominated the snaps at 63% snap share.
DeAndre Hopkins led the team in the passing game with 73 yards and a touchdown on six receptions from seven targets and one TD, accounting for a 21% target share. Hopkins only ran a route on 50% of the dropbacks (same as Week 2) as the Titans limit the veteran’s snaps. If managers in your league believe this is his renaissance performance, sell high. Trusting any receiver (let alone one playing limited snaps) in this Titans passing offense is not something I’d recommend.
Tyjae Spears had a big game through the air, catching all four of his targets for 54 yards, giving him a 12% target share, and showing off his playmaking ability with 66 yards after the catch. He played a season-high 37% snap share, suggesting his ankle injury did not limit him.
Josh Whyle was another key contributor, with 43 yards on five targets (14.7% target share). Tyler Boyd added 33 yards on four targets (11.8% target share). Pollard caught three passes on four targets. Calvin Ridley only had one catch for nine yards on three targets. Ridley ranks 5th in air yards (355) this season. If you can flip Hopkins for Ridley straight up, pull the trigger.
The Titans will play the Dolphins in Week 4, followed by a Week 5 bye week.
Per the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool, Tennesse has the No. 1 schedule for WRs rest of the season.
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Miami Dolphins
Buy De’Von Achane
No sugarcoating this one. Skylar Thompson was bad. Thompson led the Dolphins with 107 yards on 13 of 19 passing, while Tim Boyle added 79 yards through the air on seven of 13 completions. Neither quarterback threw a touchdown in this game. Thompson left the game with an injury.
De’Von Achane handled 11 carries for 30 yards, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. Jaylen Wright contributed 17 rushing yards on two carries. Achane was a workhorse with a 74% snap share without Raheem Mostert available.
In the receiving game, Tyreek Hill was the primary target, catching three passes for 40 yards on five targets, which resulted in a 23% target share. Dee Eskridge hauled in one catch for 30 yards, while Achane contributed 28 receiving yards on three receptions (five targets). Jaylen Waddle caught four passes for 26 yards on five targets.
There were a few drops, but the lack of focus on Hill/Waddle/Achane is beyond me. Guys like Tanner Hudson (two) and Alec Ingold (three) were seeing opportunities…
As I pointed out last week, we wanted to hold or sell the Dolphins. Unfortunately, we got the worst-case outcome: Miami laid an egg in Seattle so much so that we could see Tyler Huntley start in Week 4.
You’re stuck with Waddle (bench) and Hill. The best advice I can give is to package them in a deal. However, I am still interested in Achane.
And after further consideration, I think I’d be a buyer of Hill given how far his price tag has fallen. I think Tua Tagovailoa returns this season, and that’s not necessarily the popular opinion.
Miami plays the Titans and Patriots before a Week 6 bye.
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Seattle Seahawks
Buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Sell Noah Fant
Geno Smith led the Seahawks with 289 passing yards, completing 26 of 34 passes with one touchdown and two interceptions.
Zach Charbonnet handled 18 carries for 91 yards and two TDs on the ground, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. He also added three catches for 16 yards. Charbonnet had three chances in red-zone rushing situations.
Kenny McIntosh added 11 rushing yards on three carries.
In the receiving game, D.K. Metcalf was the top target, catching four passes for 104 yards on six targets, which resulted in an 18% target share and 45% air yards share.
Noah Fant contributed 60 receiving yards on six receptions. However, he also did it on his lowest route participation (59%) of the season. We can’t trust it until we see some consistency.
Tyler Lockett hauled in five catches for 46 yards and one touchdown on eight targets, securing a 23.5% target share. Jaxon Smith-Njigba went three-for-three for 39 yards.
So, will Lockett and JSN switch off good and bad games every week?
I don’t think so. Again, going back to the usage. Smith-Njigba ran a route on a season-high of dropbacks (97%).
Seattle will play the Lions, Giants, and 49ers in their next three games. JSN in a shootout? Yes, please.
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Carolina Panthers
Buy Chuba Hubbard & Jonathon Brooks | Add Tommy Tremble & Xavier Legette
Andy Dalton put up an impressive performance, throwing for 319 yards on 26 of 37 passing with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He finished with a 123.6 passer rating and spread the ball effectively among his playmakers.
Dalton was efficient against the Raiders’ blitz and man coverage-heavy defense, per Next Gen Stats.
The Raiders blitzed Dalton on 59% of his dropbacks, more than double their blitz rate in Weeks 1 and 2 (25.4%); however, Dalton got rid of the ball in 2.02 seconds on average against the blitz to negate pressure. Dalton was most efficient against man coverage, completing 16 of 20 for 184 yards and a touchdown (+7.7% CPOE). Dalton also completed more passes of 10+ air yards (6) than Bryce Young did in Weeks 1 and 2 combined (5).
Chuba Hubbard finished with 21 carries for 114 yards against the Raiders, +33 rushing yards over expected, Hubbard’s second-most RYOE in a game in his career per Next Gen Stats.
Hubbard showed efficiency at 5.4 yards per carry. Hubbard had three chances in red-zone rushing situations. He was also targeted on 63% of his routes – the highest among any RB in Week 3.
Rookie Jonathon Brooks should make his return from the NFI list soon, but Hubbard won’t give up the RB1 job lightly. If you need RB production now, buy Hubbard and bank the points. That being said, given the schedule, there’s no reason you can’t look to acquire both Panthers RBs.
Per the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool, Carolina has the No. 3 schedule for RBs for the rest of the season.
Miles Sanders struggled, managing just 17 yards on seven carries.
Also, per Next Gen Stats, Diontae Johnson was targeted 14 times on 37 routes for eight receptions, 122 yards, and a touchdown, with most of his production coming against Raiders cornerback Jakorian Bennett.
Johnson was at his best on in-breaking routes on the day (6-of-8 receptions and 100 of 122 receiving yards). Johnson accounted for 56.8% of the Panthers team air yards for 109 targeted air yards – the next closest Panthers receiver finished with 43 targeted air yards. Bennett lined up against Johnson on 26 of his routes (70.3%), allowing four receptions for 55 yards on seven targets as the nearest defender.
Johnson was a standout, racking up a touchdown on eight receptions from 14 targets for a 38% target share. The Panthers receiver had four looks in the red zone, catching one for the score. He leads the NFL in red-zone targets (7) with only one TD reception.
Hubbard added 55 yards on five receptions from five targets (13.5% target share) and played a significant role in the passing attack with a TD catch.
Xavier Legette contributed 42 yards on two catches from three targets (8.1% target share) and a touchdown. Adam Thielen chipped in with 40 yards on five targets, catching three passes, while Tommy Tremble had 29 yards and a touchdown on three targets. Tremble played 86% of the snaps as the clear-cut TE1 for the Panthers.
Thielen got hurt at the end of his TD reception in the first half. Jonathan Mingo played more as a result, but Legette is the target off waiver wires. His role has stayed the same all three weeks, but he’s been targeted at a decent clip.
Carolina will face the Bengals in Week 4, followed by the Bears, Falcons, Commanders, and Broncos.
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Las Vegas Raiders
Sell Zamir White & Davante Adams | Add Alexander Mattison | Buy Brock Bowers
Gardner Minshew led the Raiders with 214 yards on 18 of 28 passing, throwing one touchdown and one interception. Aidan O’Connell contributed with 82 passing yards and one touchdown on nine of 12 completions in garbage time.
On the ground, Zamir White took 10 carries for 34 yards (10 short of Antonio Pierce’s goal) but struggled to find much room, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Minshew added 14 rushing yards on three carries. Alexander Mattison had the goal-line carry (again), leaving White with nothing to show for a great matchup-zero targets to Mattison’s three for 37 yards.
White played just 22% of the snaps. He is virtually useless as an early two-down back on a bad offense that the team takes out at the goal line. He played 14 snaps (less than his 14.5 rushing attempts prop).
Mattison played 44% of the snaps and is the better option for the rest of the season.
To showcase just how bad White has been: per Next Gen Stats, Zamir White’s -0.61 EPA per carry in 2024 is the fewest by any running back since 2016 (min. 30 carries).
The receiving game was led by Tre Tucker, who hauled in seven receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown on nine targets, commanding a 26% target share. Jakobi Meyers was also highly involved, catching seven passes for 62 yards on nine targets and commanding a 26% target share. He saw two passes come his way inside the 20-yard line, with one touchdown.
Brock Bowers (our last hope at TE) contributed 41 yards on three catches and four targets, and Davante Adams added 40 yards on four receptions from nine targets. Bowers had his lowest route participation (59%) in this game. Buy low.
Note that when AOC entered the game in the fourth quarter, the targets were Meyers (5), Bowers (1), Tucker (3), Mayer (1), Abdullah (1), and Adams (1).
When asked about his quarterback, Pierce told reporters he’s not ruled out a quarterback change heading into Week 4. He also said there could be some personnel changes based on ‘business decisions” some players made in Week 3’s loss. Are we about to go down a Davante Adams trade demands cycle?
Stay tuned. Las Vegas will face the Browns, Broncos, and Steelers over the next three weeks.
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San Francisco 49ers
Add/Hold Jauan Jennings | Buy Brandon Aiyuk
Brock Purdy had an impressive performance, completing 22 of 30 passes for 292 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions, boasting a 137.1 passer rating.
Jordan Mason led the ground attack with 19 carries for 77 yards, while Purdy added 41 rushing yards on 10 attempts. Mason received five carries inside the 20-yard mark.
In the receiving game, Jauan Jennings was the No. 1 target, hauling in 11 receptions for 175 yards and three touchdowns on 12 targets, which accounted for a 40% target share.
Brandon Aiyuk caught five passes for 48 yards on 10 targets, making up 33% of the team’s passing attempts with nearly 100 air yards.
Tight end Eric Saubert added 41 receiving yards on two catches. Mason also had two targets for 11 yards. Saubert took on the full-time role, playing 86% of the snaps. Again, in the horrible tight end landscape, it’s worth kicking the tires on George Kittle, presuming he can log some full practices this week.
We figured that Aiyuk would be the big winner in this matchup, but Jennings stole the show. He capitalized on catching his two red-zone targets for TDs. Aiyuk is sitting on five red-zone targets but still hasn’t scored-prime buy-low opportunity with the shine on Jennings. However, be careful with your approach. His Week 4 matchup against Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez also isn’t great.
There’s also an issue about how “back” Aiyuk is after his long contract hold-in. Per Next Gen Stats, the 49ers’ offensive weapons have struggled to generate separation this season, with receivers averaging the fewest yards of separation (2.9) of a 49ers offense in the NGS era and the 2nd-fewest in the NFL this season.
Trent Williams also left with an injury, but apparently, it was just cramping.
The 49ers face the Patriots and Cardinals in their next two games. Then it’s Seattle, KC, and Dallas before a Week 9 bye week.
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Los Angeles Rams
Sell Kyren Williams | Add Tutu Atwell
Matthew Stafford completed 16 of 25 passes for 221 yards and one touchdown, posting a passer rating of 105.6.
Kyren Williams led the rushing attack with 24 carries for 89 yards (3.7 YPC) and two scores, while Ronnie Rivers chipped in with nine yards on two carries. Williams played 90% of the snaps.
Williams also had two catches for 27 yards (two targets) and another TD. He received 10 carries inside the 20-yard mark. It was an unbelievable effort from the Rams RB, akin to a lot of his production last season. Still, the long-term outlook with the Rams is concerning, given the status of the OL. I think the safe move is to just cash out after a three-TD game that could easily be Williams’ peak performance of 2024. The Bears’ defense on the road could be a much tougher challenge. And Williams has not been efficient as a rusher this season. He’s in the bottom 10 in rushing yards above expectation per attempt (-0.9) this season.
In the receiving game, Tutu Atwell was the top target, catching four passes for 93 yards on five targets, which accounted for a 20% target share. Demarcus Robinson added 32 yards on one reception (four targets), while Jordan Whittington caught three passes for 28 yards (3 targets) with a 30% target rate per route run.
Colby Parkinson was targeted five times tying Atwell for the team lead (20%). The Rams TE played 100% of the snaps.
Tyler Johnson had three catches for 20 yards (four targets).
Robinson and Johnson have not scored a red-zone TD despite three red-zone targets a piece this season. Robinson played the most WR snaps, followed by Atwell, Johnson and then Whittington. Robinson also left some production on the table with 112 air yards.
The Rams will face the Bears and Packers before a Week 6 bye. LA desperately needs the bye week to get their roster healthy and closer to full strength.
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Arizona Cardinals
Add Michael Wilson & Elijah Higgins | Buy James Conner
Kyler Murray completed 21 of 34 passes for 207 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. His passer rating was 76.5.
In the ground game, Murray led with 45 rushing yards on five attempts, while James Conner was limited to 17 yards on nine carries. Trey Benson had just two carries for eight yards. Conner had one catch for eight yards. It was a tough matchup for Conner, and this was his worst of outcomes. However, he is still a bell cow and should rebound in a favorable spot at home in Week 4.
On the receiving side, Michael Wilson caught eight of his nine targets for 64 yards (27% target share), while Marvin Harrison Jr. added five catches for 64 yards on 11 targets (32% target share) and one TD. Per Next Gen Stats, Harrison Jr. hauled in four of his nine outside-the-numbers targets for 50 yards and a touchdown against the Lions. He also saw 186 air yards.
Greg Dortch also had 35 yards on three catches from six targets.
Trey McBride was limited to just three catches for 25 yards (six targets). He also suffered a head injury. Elijah Higgins would be next up if McBride misses Week 4.
Wilson would also see a larger portion of the target share after his nine-target performance.
The Cardinals’ next three games are against the Commanders, 49ers, and Packers. These are great matchups for the passing game to get back on track.
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Detroit Lions
Buy Jameson Williams
Jared Goff completed 18 of 23 passes for 199 yards, throwing two touchdowns and one interception. His passer rating was 113.6.
In the rushing attack, David Montgomery led the way with 105 yards on 23 carries (4.6 yards per carry) and one TD (two red-zone carries), while Jahmyr Gibbs added 83 yards on 16 carries (5.2 yards per carry). Gibbs added 20 receiving yards (hook and ladder) and a TD. Montgomery went 3-for-3 with 17 yards as a receiver. They split snaps nearly 50/50.
On the receiving side, Amon-Ra St. Brown caught seven of his eight targets for 75 yards and one touchdown (35% target share). Sam LaPorta had two catches on two targets for 36 yards. Brock Wright contributed 34 yards on four catches and five targets.
Jameson Williams had one catch for 9 yards on three targets. Williams is sitting on five red-zone targets but still hasn’t scored a red-zone TD.
Sam LaPorta was carted into the locker room before halftime. He was dealing with an ankle injury post Week 3 and was diagnosed with a low-ankle sprain. Expect Brock Wright (69% snap share) to pick up the slack in his absence. Given the bye week in Week 5, LaPorta may miss Week 4.
If LaPorta misses time, Williams can continue his production from Weeks 1-2. Buy low. He ranks sixth in air yards this season.
In deeper formats, Tim Patrick is getting run as the WR3.
Detroit plays Seattle before their Week 5 bye week. Then it’s Dallas, Minnesota, and Tennessee.
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Baltimore Ravens
Buy Mark Andrews & Zay Flowers
Lamar Jackson completed 12 of 15 passes for 182 yards and one touchdown, with a passer rating of 139.4. He also contributed 87 rushing yards on 14 attempts with a rushing touchdown.
Derrick Henry led the rushing attack with 25 carries for 151 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Justice Hill added 33 rushing yards on five attempts (also had two targets), while Zay Flowers had 3 rushing yards.
In the receiving game, Nelson Agholor had a big play, catching one pass for 56 yards on his only target. Charlie Kolar also contributed 30 receiving yards on one reception, and Rashod Bateman caught three passes for 28 yards on four targets, representing a 26.7% target share (4) with the only TD score.
Zay Flowers (3 for 20) had four targets. Isiah Likely (1 target) and Mark Andrews (1 target) were nonfactors in the run-heavy game plan. Henry had almost more receiving yards (23) than Flowers, Andrews and Likely combined (24).
Per Next Gen Stats, Lamar Jackson averaged 3.2 air yards per attempt in Week 3, his lowest mark in a game in his career.
Jackson completed 11 of 14 passes under 10 air yards for 169 yards; his only pass over 10 air yards resulted in a 13-yard touchdown to Rashod Bateman (two red-zone targets). As a result, Bateman commanded a 75% air yards share.
I hate to continue being the “defend Andrews guy,” but his lack of production is 100% related to the game script. Baltimore went super run-heavy. As a result, Andrews played just 33% of the snaps running a route on 35% of the dropbacks. He ran six routes. Andrews ran 38 in Week 1.
Nobody can produce on that little volume when your QB attempts 14 passes.
Meanwhile, Likely played 62% of the snaps and was also unproductive. However, I don’t entirely hate the idea of an Andrews/Likely swap. We’ve seen one of those guys have a great game this season (Likely). We know the upside if Andrews were to miss time. And given Andrews’ continued bizarre usage, maybe he isn’t entirely healthy.
Baltimore is another team that will be a constant tug of war. Games with leads, it’s the Derrick Henry show. But if they are trailing, you’ll see the WRs and TEs more involved.
At this point, Zay Flowers is the “safest” buy low, given his top-12 target share (27%). Against the Buffalo Bills, he should feast underneath.
As for Andrews, it should be another good matchup for him. Buffalo has been bad against tight ends this season.
They will face Buffalo, the Bengals, and Commanders in the next three games.
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Dallas Cowboys
Hold Rico Dowdle | Drop Ezekiel Elliott | Buy Jalen Tolbert | Sell Brandin Cooks
Dak Prescott completed 28 of 51 passes for 379 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions, with a passer rating of 91.9.
Rico Dowdle led the team in rushing with eight carries for 32 yards. Prescott added seven yards on two rushing attempts and one TD. Ezekiel Elliot had just three carries for six yards. Dowdle was used more as a receiver, with five targets and three catches for 24 yards. He led the backfield with a 46% snap rate.
Elliott fell to third in the pecking order of snaps – at just a 19% snap rate. It has dropped for three straight weeks.
In the receiving game, Jake Ferguson was Prescott’s primary target, leading the way with six receptions for 95 yards on 11 targets, which accounted for a 22% target share. He missed Week 2 but was not limited in his return.
CeeDee Lamb followed with four catches for 67 yards on seven targets (14% target share). KaVontae Turpin had a big 51 yards on three targets.
Jalen Tolbert also scored, commanding three catches for 42 yards on five targets. Brandin Cooks was third with six targets but caught two for 16 yards. Cooks seemed to have every opportunity for a bigger game but fell short of several productive plays. His ineffectiveness is a bad sign for his outlook. The routes dropped to a season-low mark as well-110 air yards into nothing.
The air yards might suggest Cooks as a buy-low, but Tolbert was right there with 103 air yards. I’ll side with the younger player who has surged the last two weeks.
They will play the Giants on Thursday night, followed by the Steelers and Lions.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Buy Xavier Worthy & Carson Steele
Patrick Mahomes completed 26 of 39 passes for 217 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. His passer rating was 87.2.
In the rushing game, Carson Steele led the team with 72 yards on 17 carries, averaging 4.2 yards per carry, while Samaje Perine contributed 25 yards on six carries. The rookie received six carries inside the 20-yard mark. Two attempts inside the 5-yard line. He has eight carries inside the red zone this season but hasn’t scored.
Perine was the primary receiver, with three catches on four targets for 15 yards. Steele caught one pass for two yards (two targets).
Steele was at 62% snaps versus Perine’s 38%. What was encouraging for Steele was his routes. He ran a route on 57% of the dropbacks, which was more than Perine.
All in all, Steele’s role was pretty close to what we’ve seen from Isiah Pacheco in the Chiefs offense
And he was productive in his first start as the feature guy. Per Next Gen Stats, Steele accumulated 60 of 72 rushing yards on runs between the tackles. Despite not gaining a single run of 10+ yards, Steele gained positive EPA on 12 of 17 carries while finishing with positive RYOE (+4). Steele also forced three missed tackles across 18 total touches on the night.
Despite not gaining a single run of 10+ yards, Steele gained positive EPA on 12 of 17 carries while finishing with positive RYOE (+4). Steele also forced three missed tackles across 18 total touches on the night. On the year, he leads all qualified rushers in rushing success rate (69%).
As a waiver wire add, undrafted player Steele doesn’t have the draft capital to warrant an expensive price tag. Because he didn’t score, I think he can be had much cheaper than what his role in Week 3 suggests his value should be. Also, there are many still concerned about Kareem Hunt. Stop.
His overall role was similar to the likes of Aaron Jones. But he won’t cost nearly that much to acquire as a player many got off waivers.
Rashee Rice dominated the receiving corps, catching 12 of his 14 targets for 110 yards (36% target share) and 1 TD (two red-zone targets). Rice ranks third in the NFL in target share (31.5%).
Travis Kelce was targeted five times, catching four passes for 30 yards with zero touchdowns. The usage/routes are there for Kelce, so it might be a matter of him being well past his prime at this point.
JuJu Smith-Schuster added 17 yards and a touchdown on two receptions.
Xavier Worthy had three carries for 13 yards. He was targeted four times, seeing two catches for 17 yards (both coming extremely quickly in the game). Worthy played fewer snaps than Smith-Schuster…but he did run more routes (74%) than JuJu’s 59%.
What are we doing KC?
Remember that Worthy is still a rookie, and Andy Reid has traditionally slow-played these guys. Don’t lose sight of the long-term upside while the Chiefs work through their offensive woes.
KC plays the Chargers and then takes on the Saints in Week 5 before a much-needed Week 6 bye week.
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Atlanta Falcons
Sell Kyle Pitts | Add Darnell Mooney | Buy Bijan Robinson
Kirk Cousins completed 20 of 29 passes for 230 yards with one touchdown and one interception. His passer rating was 89.7.
In the rushing game, Tyler Allgeier led the team with 32 yards on seven carries (two red-zone carries), while Bijan Robinson added 31 yards on 16 carries and one rushing TD but was held to 1.9 yards per carry. Robinson had four opportunities in the red zone.
For the third straight week, the Chiefs took away the opposing offense’s No. 1 weapon. B-Rob only caught two passes on two targets. Buy low (if possible).
Per the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool, the Falcons have the No. 1 schedule for RBs rest of the season.
Drake London was the top target, catching six of his nine targets for 67 yards (31% target share) and a score (three red-zone targets). London has six red-zone targets this season and two scores. His upside case was attached to TDs, and so far, he has delivered on that projection in the last two weeks. 23% target share overall this season.
Darnell Mooney added eight catches for 66 yards on eight targets. Kyle Pitts was efficient, catching two passes for 59 yards on five targets. He was tackled just short of the goal line.
Ray-Ray McCloud caught two passes for 17 yards (three targets) to go along with a rush of 20 yards.
The 3 WRs remained locked into their every-down roles, while Pitts saw mid-level tight end usage yet again, with just a 69% snap rate.
Atlanta plays the Saints, Buccaneers, Panthers, and Seahawks over the next three weeks. All in all, you want to be a buyer on the Falcons after a relatively (and somewhat unsurprising) slow start.
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Cincinnati Bengals
Hold Zack Moss | Buy Chase Brown & Tee Higgins
Joe Burrow was in great form, completing 29 of 38 passes for 324 yards and three touchdowns, with a passer rating of 127.5.
In the rushing game, Chase Brown led the team with 62 yards on seven attempts (8.9 YPC), while Zack Moss added 58 yards on twelve carries with a rushing TD. Burrow also chipped in with four yards on one rush.
Brown looked very explosive, but Moss was also solid in this contest. Both guys were involved in the receiving game. Moss caught five of six targets for 39 yards, while Brown went two for seven yards on three targets.
Moss played 76% of the snaps to Brown’s 24%. Brown saw a season-high nine touches, while Moss dominated the receiving usage and worked in the red zone with four touches.
As encouraging as it was to witness Brown’s increased usage and efficiency, Moss looked better than he had through the first two games. I still think he is a sell long-term, but I’m fine holding through another layup matchup against the Panthers in Week 4
Ja’Marr Chase was the star receiver with 118 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions from seven targets (18.4% target share). Andrei Iosivas followed with 52 yards on five catches from seven targets (18.4% target share).
Mike Gesicki contributed 47 yards from five targets and four catches, and Tee Higgins added 39 yards on three receptions from six targets (15.7% target share).
Despite Higgins’ full-time return to the lineup, Iosivas was still very involved, with a 77% snap share.
Higgins didn’t deliver, but he had opportunities to light up the box score in his first game back from injury. He saw two red-zone targets but didn’t score. As a boom-or-bust proposition (paired with a horrible Bengals defense) Higgins will have his spiked weeks in due time.
Rookie tight end Erik All – who the broadcast raved about the Bengals loving for the second straight week – was highly efficient, catching all four of his targets for 22 yards. He needs to be rostered in deeper formats.
After a 0-3 start, the Bengals need to turn things around really quickly. I expect the offensive to continue upward with Carolina, Baltimore, Giants, Browns, Eagles, and Raiders as their next slate of opponents.
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Washington Commanders
Buy Jayden Daniels | Hold Terry McLaurin | Add Noah Brown & Zach Ertz
Jayden Daniels had an uber-efficient game, completing 21 of 23 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns, with a passer rating of 141.7.
In the rushing game, Daniels also led the team with 39 yards on 12 carries.
The rookie quarterback broke out in Monday Night’s win over the Bengals. Per Next Gen Stats, Daniels completed +20.8% of his passes over expected, the highest CPOE by a qualified passer in a game this season. His two incompletions both came on deep pass attempts. Daniels, who entered the game averaging 4.6 air yards per attempt, doubled that mark against the Bengals with an average of 9.2 air yards per attempt.
Austin Ekeler had 35 yards on three attempts, including a long 24-yard run. Brian Robinson Jr. managed just 33 yards on 16 carries. Each player scored a rushing touchdown. Ekeler left the game with a concussion.
Robinson caught one pass for four yards compared to Ekeler’s two catches for 22 yards. But because of Ekeler’s injury, Robinson finished with a 75% snap share and three red-zone touches.
Terry McLaurin was the top receiver with 100 yards on four receptions from six targets (26.1% target share) and one touchdown, while rookie WR Luke McCaffrey added 44 yards on three catches and three targets. Zach Ertz contributed 38 yards on five targets, catching all five.
Ertz played 64% of the snaps and finished second on the team in routes runs. He was targeted at a 26% rate per route run.
Wide receiver Noah Brown also caught all three of his passes for 29 yards. But he was clearly the WR2 playing the second-most snaps (58%). He also fell just short of a score in the red zone.
The Commanders will play Arizona, Cleveland, and the Ravens in their next three games. From Weeks 7 to 8, it’s Carolina and Chicago.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Sell Christian Kirk | Buy Brian Thomas Jr. & Travis Etienne
Trevor Lawrence completed 21 of 38 passes for 178 yards, one touchdown, and one interception with a passer rating of 65.5. It was a disastrous performance for the Jaguars on Monday Night. Lawrence was constantly under duress.
Travis Etienne led the team in the rushing game with 68 yards on 11 carries (6.2 YPC). D’Ernest Johnson added 12 yards on two carries, while Tank Bigsby ran for nine yards on two attempts. ETN also caught four passes for 17 yards on six targets while playing 69% of the snaps.
What to do with Etienne? He feels like a sell-low player, but I’m still not convinced he’s losing out on opportunities in this backfield to other RBs. Given his suppressed price, he might be more of a buy than anything else. Houston’s run defense is traditionally great, but the Colts in Week 5 are a prime spot for him to go off.
Christian Kirk was the top receiver, catching eight of 10 targets for 79 yards (26% target share). Brian Thomas Jr. added 48 yards on five catches from nine targets (24% target share), and Gabe Davis chipped in with 29 yards on four receptions from six targets (16% target share).
As I alluded to all week, this was the spot for Kirk to see his targets rise. It was matchup-specific. So, the move is to “sell” Kirk after a double-digit target game and buy low on the rookie first-rounder.
Tight end Brenton Strange caught just two of his five targets for 12 yards, but he scored the Jaguars’ lone TD in the red zone.
The Jags will play Houston and Indianapolis over the next two games. The schedule is improving, which will help this offense get back on track.
Per the FantasyPros strength of schedule tool, Jacksonville has the No. 4 schedule for QBs rest of the season.
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Buffalo Bills
Buy James Cook | Hold Khalil Shakir | Add Ty Johnson
Josh Allen completed 23 of 30 passes for 263 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 142.1.
Per Next Gen Stats, Allen averaged +0.76 expected points added per dropback in the Bills 47-10 route over the Jaguars, his 2nd-highest mark by EPA in a game in his career (including playoffs).
In the rushing game, Allen led with 44 yards on six carries (7.3 YPC). James Cook added 39 yards on 11 carries (3.5 YPC) with a touchdown, while Ray Davis ran for 22 yards on seven carries (3.1 YPC) with another score later in the game. The Jaguars continue to be a defense to attack through the air and not on the ground.
Cook keeps scoring TDs (four more red-zone touches in Week 3) and looks GREAT doing so. But given the involvement of other Bills RBs and his quarterback around the goal line, managers might not view him as an elite or untouchable asset. Buy High.
Khalil Shakir led the receivers, catching all six of his targets for 72 yards (20% target share). James Cook had 48 yards on five receptions from four targets (13.3% target share), and Dalton Kincaid chipped in 41 yards on three catches from five targets (16.6% target share) with a touchdown on one of his two red-zone targets.
Per Next Gen Stats, Shakir finished with 72 receiving yards on six catches, including a 27-yard touchdown reception in which he gained +16 yards after the catch over expected.
Shakir was productive out of the slot, where he aligned for 18 out of 22 of his routes (82%) and caught all 5 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown. Shakir gained more yards after catch (77) than he had receiving yards (72) due to an average depth of target behind the line of scrimmage (-1.0).
After three weeks, I think it’s safe to proclaim Shakir as the Bills WR1. He takes advantage of every opportunity to the highest extent possible.
Rookie Keon Coleman caught his lone target for a 24-yard touchdown. Not much volume in the last two weeks for Coleman, and his routes/snaps dipped in Week 3.
Ty Johnson caught three targets for 28 yards and another touchdown.
A lot of Bills touchdowns to account for in their blowout win over the Jaguars.
Buffalo plays the Ravens and Texans for the next two weeks.
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