Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 2 officially in the books and a lot to recap from ALL the action! My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.
Obviously, I’ll cite data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups, highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about.
And I’d be more than happy to include certain tables where I see they fit and/or there is a demand.
Again, the idea behind the Fantasy Forecast has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets, as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes, they don’t always appear in the normal box score.
Also new this year. An opening trade advice column and more graphics! Courtesy of FantasyPros in-house data scientist Sam Hoppen!
So, without further ado…let’s unveil the Fantasy Forecast for Week 3 to prepare our rosters for future success.
Time to ride the (Breece) lightning once again. Because the forecast calls for a SHOCKINGLY fun Week 3 slate.
- More Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Advice
- Weekly Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Start/Sit Advice
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Week 3 Fantasy Football Forecast
Jump ahead to check out my advice for each team using the table below!
| AFC EAST | AFC NORTH | AFC SOUTH | AFC WEST | NFC EAST | NFC NORTH | NFC SOUTH | NFC WEST |
| BUF | BAL | HOU | KC | DAL | DET | TB | SF |
| MIA | CLE | JAC | LV | PHI | GB | NO | LAR |
| NYJ | PIT | IND | DEN | NYG | MIN | ATL | SEA |
| NE | CIN | TEN | LAC | WAS | CHI | CAR | ARI |
Trade Advice
I want to voice a couple of points in this week’s trade advice column.
- If a player’s performance is too good to be true, it probably is. And vice versa. Is this player’s output over the last two weeks ACTUALLY who they are?
- Be open to the idea of “buying high” and “selling low.” Most trade analysis is always done using the buy low/sell high method, but if everybody knows this, is it really an approach that works in reality rather than theory?
We are two weeks in and can’t be as committed to our priors (for better or worse). When selling low, you need to consider what this player (or players) are doing to your roster. If they constantly force their way into your lineup to no success, it’s time to pivot. Save yourself by removing the temptation. Also, ask yourself, is this player a losing proposition in the aggregate? If so, go after a player with a winning proposition, even if it’s by the slimmest of margins.
Also, remember why you drafted that player in the first place. If it’s because you thought something else would transpire that hasn’t happened in two games, then you need to adjust expectations.
Ask yourself this. You’ve been disciplined enough to put the underwhelming player on your bench. Success. They can’t hurt you anymore. But then they have a good week. Now, the temptation has re-entered your mind to put them back into the starting lineup. But then they bust again. And the cycle continues.
If you don’t think a player can post strong back-to-back games, try to move off them. Those start/sit decisions will be YOUR greatest headache. Life is better without headaches.
I sometimes like selling low for other “low players” on another roster who are in a greater position of need to me.
Specifically, regarding WRs, I want to highlight how I strongly oppose selling low. Because the position is so volatile by nature, you’ll always get more bang for your buck after a spiked week. It’s a much better approach.
As for buying high, my advice is to be aggressive. Trade multiple strong assets for one elite asset. Get the best player in the deal while also providing the other manager with depth. Buy high if you have depth to deal with, especially with other top-heavy managers.
Sell low if you don’t need those players on your roster (even on your bench). If you drafted well in the late rounds, you might find that your 3rd-4th round pick is just sitting collecting dust. Trade him for a handcuff or some long-term stash.
Last but not least… buy rookies who continue to impress even if they are buried on depth charts. Any type of flash is worth stashing on your bench for middling production.
And look at the other manager’s roster before you rip off a bunch of trade requests. At least make it make sense why you are coming forward with a trade. Some teams are sitting at 0-2, or some are dealing with a ton of injuries. These are the teams with which to engage in trade talks.
Wide Receiver and Tight End routes run percentage (Week 2)
Running Back Snap Rates (Week 2)
Miami Dolphins
Hold/Sell Jaylen Waddle & Tyreek Hill | Avoid Jonnu Smith | Buy De’Von Achane
Tua Tagovailoa completed 17 of 25 passes for 145 yards, with one touchdown and three interceptions. He finished with a 56.7 passer rating.
No. 2 quarterback Skylar Thompson completed 8 of 14 passes for 80 yards but no touchdowns, earning a 73.5 passer rating.
Per Next Gen Stats, De’Von Achane led the Dolphins in both rushing (96 yards on 22 carries) and receiving (69 yards and a TD on seven receptions) while forcing nine missed tackles across 29 total touches. He played 62% of the snaps and earned four red-zone carries.
Achane had never had more than 22 touches in a game. Achane was more efficient as a receiver (+25 receiving yards over expected) than a rusher (-26 rushing yards over expected). The Dolphins’ lone touchdown on the night came on an Achane 5-yard flat route late in the first quarter.
In his NFL debut, Rookie Jaylen Wright struggled in the backfield, with five carries for just four yards. Raheem Mostert was inactive, and Jeff Wilson Jr. got hurt during the game.
Tight end Jonnu Smith caught six of his seven targets (19% target share) for 53 yards. He led the Dolphins in routes run. I’d like to make Smith a top waiver wire priority because of this usage, but there’s too much uncertainty with Miami’s QB situation to have faith in a fringe fantasy TE.
Jaylen Waddle had four targets (11% target share), catching all for 41 yards. He led the Miami WRs in snaps.
Tyreek Hill caught three of his six targets (17% target share) for 24 yards, including 25 YAC.
Grant DuBose caught one of his three targets for 13 yards, while Wilson and D. Smythe each had one reception for 12 and 8 yards, respectively. DuBose was the WR4 in snaps/routes behind Braxton Berrios.
Robbie Chosen was targeted four times, managing just one catch for 5 yards. Julian Hill saw two red-zone targets but did not score.
Buffalo’s defense limited Miami’s big-play offense. Just like they did last week in Arizona and how they have performed under head coach Sean McDermott.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Bills ran split-safety coverage on 31 of 43 dropbacks (72%), their 4th-highest mark in a game since 2018.
Obviously, the biggest concern for fantasy football managers is Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion. Given his long history of documented concussions, Miami could be without their starting QB for a while. Third-year QB Skylar Thompson is slated to start for the Dolphins in the meantime. He beat out Mike White during training camp to earn the QB2 job.
Thompson (a former 7th-rounder out of Kansas State) started in three games as a rookie, going 1-2 as the starter. (2-1 ATS). However, in his first start, he also got hurt, making him 2-0 ATS in his two full starts as a rookie, including one in the postseason at Buffalo.
But there was a stark difference in the fantasy production of Miami’s top playmakers, even if he was hyper-targeting Tyreek Hill.
So how can fantasy managers with Hill, Waddle, and Achane best approach this situation? For starters, Achane’s role in the underneath passing game makes me less concerned about him in the long term. If anything, I’d look to buy him LOW. Miami could lean more on the run game with a downgrade at quarterback.
As for Waddle/Hill, it’s tougher. Expecting Thompson to fuel both guys to weekly production is far-fetched. But those guys are still too talented not to have their share of spiked weeks (as almost all WRs do). I can’t recommend selling low (unless another manager gives you a decent deal for an out, such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba for Waddle, as an example) because there will be better times to sell high. Again, if you can get something for the Dolphins WRs without waiting for a bounce-back in Week 3, I am all for it.
Remember, we are citing Thompson’s numbers from when he was a 7th-round rookie quarterback. This is his third year in the Dolphins offense under Mike McDaniel. He beat out White to earn the QB2 job. It seems to me that he’s improved, and that shouldn’t go unnoticed. Miami’s offense is one of the few that isn’t so much QB-driven as it is scheme-driven. Thompson isn’t as good as Tagovailoa. But downgrading from Tua to him in the context of this offense will be felt less than in most offenses where they would lose their starting QB.
With more time to prepare for Seattle in Week 3 (a defense that has yet to face legitimate offensive threats through two games), I’m optimistic that we will get an above-average offensive performance from Miami. Mike Macdonald’s defensive scheme is tough to learn, and I think the Dolphins have the offensive weapons to create issues. Then, after they show out, you SELL with two ugly matchups and a Week 6 bye coming up. Hopefully, we can also get a clearer picture of Tagovailoa by then.
As noted, Miami plays Seattle in Week 3, followed by the Titans and Patriots before a Week 6 bye.
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Buffalo Bills
Buy James Cook, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid | Sell Josh Allen
Josh Allen completed 13 of 19 passes for 139 yards, throwing one touchdown with no interceptions. He finished with a 107.1 passer rating and averaged 7.3 yards per attempt.
James Cook dominated the ground game with 11 carries for 78 yards and two touchdowns, including a long run of 49 yards, averaging an impressive 7.1 YPC.
Similar to how Happy Gillmore learned how to putt to take his game to the next level, Cook has “learned” how to score TDs. He’s finally getting red-zone usage, which is going to put his fantasy production to the ceiling. In Week 2 of the 2023 season, Cook exploded. But he didn’t have the TDs to match the production. This year, he does. Buy high.
As a result, I think we see less of Josh Allen rushing TDs. Given the state of his receivers, I’m lower on Allen ROS compared to the remaining elite crop of fantasy QBs.
Rookie Ray Davis chipped in nine carries for 29 yards.
Khalil Shakir caught all five targets (26% target share, 29% target rate) for 54 yards, averaging 10.8 yards per catch with 12 YAC.
Ty Johnson was effective in the passing game, catching both of his targets (11% target share) for 33 yards.
Dalton Kincaid caught all four targets (21% target share) for 33 yards, showing his reliability as a tight end. However, he was out-snapped by Dawson Knox (53% vs 42%). After Kincaid was second on the team in routes run after Week 1, he finished third in Week 2. Still, 75% route participation is as strong as his 27% target rate per route run. I still think Kincaid is worth sending low-ball offers in a weak TE landscape.
James Cook also contributed in the air, catching one pass on one target for a 17-yard TD.
Curtis Samuel caught one pass on two targets for three yards, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Keon Coleman were held without receptions on their lone targets.
I’d buy low on Coleman after a tougher matchup. He still played the most snaps (91%) and ran the most routes among the Bills WRs. This was not a matchup that called for Josh Allen’s arm to be used in much capacity.
Buffalo plays the Jaguars on Monday Night Football in Week 3, followed by the Ravens and Texans.
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Indianapolis Colts
Buy Anthony Richardson | Add Josh Downs | Sell Michael Pittman Jr. & Adonai Mitchell | Hold Alec Pierce
The Indianapolis Colts offense struggled in this matchup. Quarterback Anthony Richardson completed 17 of 34 passes for 204 yards, one touchdown, and three interceptions, resulting in a 41.8 passer rating. Richardson also showcased his athleticism, rushing four times for 37 yards, with a long of 21 yards.
Per Next Gen Stats, Richardson completed 6 of 16 passes over 10 air yards for 100 yards, a touchdown, and three interceptions (one was on a Hail Mary attempt).
Jonathan Taylor led the ground attack with 12 carries for 103 yards (8.6 YPC), but he was held out of the end zone. He also contributed in the passing game with four targets, catching two passes for 32 yards, including a team-long 29-yard reception.
JT only played 52% of the snaps to Trey Sermon‘s 32%. Why he didn’t play more is beyond me against a weak Packers’ run defense. Sermon ran more routes than Taylor, with the Colts trailing from the get-go. Blasphemy from head coach Shane Steichen.
Alec Pierce was Richardson’s top target, seeing seven targets and catching five passes for 56 yards and one TD. Through two games, Pierce has emerged as Richardson’s go-to guy, with 160 air yards in Week 2 and 278 air yards through two games.
Adonai Mitchell also caught all four of his targets for 30 yards, while Michael Pittman had a quiet day, catching just three of seven targets for 21 yards. He was targeted deep in the end zone, but CB Carrington Valentine broke up the play.
Pittman ranks eighth in the NFL in target share through two games (28%). He was also in a similar position last season and rebounded in a big way.
Mitchell’s role could decrease with the return of Josh Downs, who was close to playing this week. Downs was a human hype piece during training camp and might be the missing cog that Richardson needs to get his passing back on track. It’s another reason to buy low on Richardson, coming off a poor performance.
Mo Alie-Cox made a big play with a 22-yard reception on his lone target, while tight ends Kylen Granson and Andrew Ogletree each saw two targets but did not contribute significantly. Overall, the Colts offense could not keep pace.
The Colts will play the Bears (a bad matchup), the Steelers (another bad matchup), and the Jacksonville Jaguars in their next three games. I think this passing game could continue to struggle at least over the next two games, making prior to Jacksonville the week to buy back into these suppressed Colts WRs and overall pieces.
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Green Bay Packers
Add Tucker Kraft | Buy Jayden Reed & Josh Jacobs
The Green Bay Packers secured a solid offensive performance led by backup quarterback Malik Willis, who completed 12 of 14 passes for 122 yards, one touchdown, and a 126.8 passer rating. Willis also contributed on the ground with six carries for 41 yards, including a long run of 19 yards.
Josh Jacobs was the star of the Packers’ ground game, dominating with 32 carries for 151 yards (4.7 YPC) and a long run of 34 yards. He lost a fumble in the end zone and had another 20-yard TD removed due to a holding penalty. He played 67% of the snaps.
He leads the NFL in red-zone carries without a touchdown score (7). This backfield had similar issues scoring last season in the red zone, so eventually, the regression is going to kick in.
Given his projected workload with Willis at QB, I’ll continue to acquire Jacobs wherever possible.
Jayden Reed also made an impact with two rushes for 37 yards, including a 22-yard run. Rookie MarShawn Lloyd added 15 yards on six carries. Lloyd was the second RB to touch the ball, but his big carry was wiped off the board due to a holding penalty. Emanuel Wilson ended up out-snapping Lloyd by 19% to 14%.
In the passing game, Romeo Doubs was the top target, catching all three of his targets for 62 yards. He earned a 65% air yards share.
Dontayvion Wicks had four targets, securing three catches for 26 yards and one TD. Tight end Tucker Kraft caught two of his three targets for 16 yards, while Jayden Reed also chipped in with nine yards on his two receptions. Kraft played 80% of the snaps as he continued his stranglehold on the Packers TE1 job.
Christian Watson had zero catches.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Packers offense used 11 Personnel on 78% of snaps in Week 1, their 2nd-highest rate in a game since the start of last season.
Luke Musgrave and Lloyd each had one reception, with Musgrave gaining 6 yards and Lloyd contributing 3 yards.
You likely weren’t starting any Packers WRs this past week, as you shouldn’t with Willis under center. The Packers are going to be super run-heavy until they get Jordan Love back.
In the meantime, buy low on these talented Packers WRs. With no bye weeks until Week 5, you should be fine trading for them, knowing you can stash them on your bench for the long haul.
The Packers will play the Titans in Week 3, followed by the Vikings, Rams, and Cardinals.
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New Orleans Saints
Add Foster Moreau | Buy Rashid Shaheed & Chris Olave | Sell Alvin Kamara
The New Orleans Saints put together a solid performance with Derek Carr under center, completing 11 of 16 passes for 243 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Carr spread the ball efficiently, leading the team to a strong offensive showing.
Dallas was unable to pressure Carr. Per Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys generated only six pressures on 17 passing dropbacks against Carr, resulting in a 35.3% pressure rate-the fourth-lowest in a game since the start of the 2023 season.
Alvin Kamara was the workhorse, carrying the ball 20 times for 115 yards, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, with a long run of 15 yards and three rushing TDs. He was supported by Jamaal Williams, who added eight carries for 39 yards, and Taysom Hill contributed three carries for 18 yards.
Rashid Shaheed was the standout receiver, catching all four targets for 96 yards and a touchdown. This man ran a route on 96% of the dropbacks. Shaheed is here to stay as an integral part of the Saints offense under new OC Klint Kubiak.
This is going to sound crazy, but Shaheed is the exact player to target as part of a “sell-low.” His stigma as a boom-or-bust WR has nobody believing in him. Believe. His new role in this offense is unlocking his ceiling. He is eighth in receiving yards through two games on nine targets.
Chris Olave saw six targets, catching four for 81 yards but no touchdowns with a 53% percent air yards share and 38% target rate per route run.
Alvin Kamara was also heavily involved in the passing game, catching two of his three targets for 65 yards and one TD.
Kamara’s four TD performance is just another addition to his list of insane fantasy outings for one of the all-time great RBs to play in the last 10 years. But here’s a friendly reminder about Kamara: He started very strong last year as well, RB6 in points per game in Weeks 3-9. He then fell to RB17 in Weeks 10-18.
I acknowledge his receiving usage thus far (20% target share) is great. Still, the TDs amid potential middling rushing efficiency for an older RB and questionable OL could be problematic down the stretch.
Kamara has already scored as many TDs (5) as he has averaged over the past two seasons. I think this is an easy sell-high window.
Taysom Hill caught one target for minimal yards. He was taken to the hospital for a chest injury, but the injury appeared not to be overly serious.
For the second straight week, Foster Moreau played the most TE snaps. He also had a 26-yard TD reception called back because of a penalty.
The Saints play the Eagles at home in Week 3, then play the Falcons, Chiefs, and Buccaneers in their next three games.
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Dallas Cowboys
Sell Rico Dowdle
Dak Prescott completed 27 of 39 passes for 293 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 78.3.
Rico Dowdle led the ground attack with seven carries for 30 yards, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. He started and had the first carry. Ezekiel Elliott carried the ball six times for 16 yards. Deuce Vaughn had four rushes for 11 yards. Dowdle contributed to the passing game, too, catching four of five targets for 29 yards.
The snaps were 43 percent for Dowdle, 40 percent for Elliott, and 14 percent for Vaughn. Elliott ran the most routes.
It’s an ugly 3-way committee that nobody can have success with. To make matters worse, Zeke still looks to be the preferred candidate for red-zone usage. They played Elliott less to let Vaughn play more in Week 2.
Sell Dowdle after he “started” in Week 2.
CeeDee Lamb had seven targets, catching four for 90 yards and one TD, including a long of 57 yards.
Jalen Tolbert was the most targeted player with nine targets, catching 6 for 82 yards (over 100 air yards). He looked good for a player who was hyped up during the offseason, and his role increased dramatically from Week 1, going from 69% route participation to 89% in Week 2.
Tight end Luke Schoonmaker was also involved, catching all six targets for 43 yards. He only played 40% of the snaps but was heavily involved. If Jake Ferguson misses another week, he could fill a role.
Brandin Cooks saw two targets, catching both for 19 yards.
Elliott, Jalen Brooks, Vaughn, and Turpin also contributed small gains, though no touchdowns were scored through the air.
With the Cowboys continuing to underwhelm in the ground game, I’d speculatively add Dalvin Cook in deeper formats. Maybe he gets more run with nobody currently running away with the Dallas RB1 job.
They will host the Ravens in Week 3, followed by the Giants, Steelers, and Lions.
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Los Angeles Chargers
Sell Quentin Johnston | Buy Ladd McConkey | Drop Josh Palmer
Justin Herbert completed 14 of 20 passes for 130 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 100. Per Next Gen Stats, Herbert was nearly perfect against the Panthers when passing from a clean pocket, completing 13 of 14 for 115 yards and both touchdowns (+21.7% CPOE). However, he got hurt on a sack and will be further tested.
Running back J.K. Dobbins was the star on the ground, rushing 17 times for 131 yards (7.7 YPC) with a long of 43 yards, scoring a touchdown. Like last week, the move still remains to sell high for the injury-prone Dobbins. But if you don’t get anything worthwhile, just continue to ride the wave of the NFL’s leading rusher. Tougher matchup on deck versus the Steelers.
Gus Edwards contributed with 18 carries for 59 yards, though he was kept out of the end zone.
The backfield was a 50/50 split in snaps, but Edwards was more involved than in Week 1. He was not effective, though-second-to-last in rushing EPA through 2 games.
Herbert added 18 yards on six carries, and Hassan Haskins had three rushes for 11 yards (garbage time).
Quentin Johnston led the receiving corps with six targets, catching five for 51 yards, including two touchdowns. He operated as the WR1, with Josh Palmer entering the game with a knee injury.
Will Dissly caught all three of his targets for 29 yards.
Ladd McConkey caught two of his four targets for 26 yards, while Palmer added two catches for 19 yards (two targets). McConkey’s routes were fewer than QJ’s in Week 2, but he was still targeted at a 27% clip.
They have identical target shares through the first two games. I think you know where my lean is. Go for the rookie.
Hayden Hurst and J.K. Dobbins also made minor contributions, with one reception each. Hurst dominated the routes (77%) among the Bolts tight ends.
Herbert’s two touchdowns went to Johnston, who was effective as a top target. Dobbins dominated the game on the ground, with a big play to help set the tone for the Chargers’ offensive success.
LA will play at the Steelers in Week 3, followed by the Chiefs, and a Week 5 bye week.
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Carolina Panthers
Buy Diontae Johnson & Jonathon Brooks | Add Andy Dalton
The Carolina Panthers continued to struggle offensively in Week 2, with Bryce Young completing 18 of 26 passes for 84 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception.
Per Next Gen Stats, Young did not complete a single pass over 10 air yards in a 26-3 blowout loss at home to the Chargers. Young attempted only two passes over 10 air yards despite trailing on every one of his dropbacks. Woof.
His poor performance had a trickle-down effect.
Running back Chuba Hubbard led the ground game with 10 carries for 64 yards (6.4 YPC), including a long of 23 yards. He played a 58% snap share (similar to Week 1). Miles Sanders was less effective, carrying the ball seven times for 20 yards (2.9 YPC).
Hubbard was also active in the passing game, catching four of five targets for 12 yards.
Young also added 6 yards on one carry.
Tight end Tommy Tremble was targeted four times, catching three passes for 23 yards, with 17 yards after the catch.
Adam Thielen was targeted three times, catching all two for 20 yards. Diontae Johnson had six targets but only caught three for 15 yards. Johnson has three red-zone targets this season and zero touchdowns. He had a 49% air yards share in Week 2 because Young generated just 75 air yards passing.
Johnson and Thielen both played 94% of the snaps. Still didn’t matter.
This offense is so sad with Young playing quarterback.
The Panthers’ head coach, Dave Canales, took action on Monday by benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton.
I honestly expect that based on the Panthers’ current offensive personnel, we will see a much better offense with Dalton under center. In his one start last season for the Panthers, Dalton threw for 361 yards and two TDs.
Young has been the problem with the offense, not the supporting cast that has improved from last season. He has no pocket awareness and never looks to throw the ball downfield.
Buy low on the Panthers, i.e., WR Diontae Johnson and RB Jonathon Brooks (who may return soon from the NFI).
And be sure to add the Red Rifle in Superflex 2QB formats.
Carolina will face the Raiders in Week 3, followed by the Bengals and Bears.
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Cleveland Browns
Add D’Onta Foreman | Sell Jerome Ford | Buy Amari Cooper
The Cleveland Browns had a rough day offensively, with Deshaun Watson completing 22 of 34 passes for 186 yards, no touchdowns, and a passer rating of 78.8.
Jerome Ford led the Browns’ backfield, rushing seven times for 64 yards (9.1 YPC) with a long of 36 yards. Ford caught one target for 0 yards. He only ran a route on 29% of the dropbacks. It was a big decline from his Week 1 usage, where he was heavily involved in the passing game, running 36 routes versus 11 in Week 2.
D’Onta Foreman added 42 yards on 14 carries (3.0 YPC), with his longest run going for nine yards. Foreman started this game as the Browns wanted to get him more involved (38% snap share) after he barely played in Week 1. He also drew the carries in the red zone for the Browns.
Watson chipped in with 20 yards on five carries (4.0 YPC), including a 9-yard rush. Pierre Strong had one rush for -5 yards.
Jerry Jeudy led the Browns in receiving, with six targets, five receptions, and 73 yards (12.2 YPC), including 10 YAC. Elijah Moore was heavily involved, catching 6 of 8 targets for 44 yards (7.3 YPC) with 21 YAC.
David Bell caught all three of his targets for 27 yards before leaving with an injury. Cedric Tillman looks like the WR4 on the depth chart. Tillman caught one of two targets for two yards.
Amari Cooper had another quiet game, catching three of eight targets for 11 yards. He dropped another pass that could have been a TD. Womp.
He’s fifth in air yards (278). He has 27 receiving yards so far this season. Something has to give here.
TE Jordan Akins caught his lone target for 10 yards while playing 49% of the snaps.
Pierre Strong was targeted twice with a reception but also dealt with a hamstring injury.
D’Onta Foreman caught his one target for 9 yards.
The Browns will play the Giants at home in Week 3 followed by Raiders, Commanders, and Eagles.
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Jacksonville Jaguars
Buy Christian Kirk & Brian Thomas Jr. | Hold Travis Etienne Jr. | Add Brenton Strange
Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars struggled offensively, with Lawrence completing 14 of 30 passes for 220 yards, no touchdowns, and a passer rating of 71.5. Per Next Gen Stats, Trevor Lawrence generated his lowest CPOE (-11.2%) in a game since Week 2, 2023, against the Chiefs. The quick passing game has not been there without Evan Engram or an effective Christian Kirk.
Travis Etienne led the ground game with 13 carries for 52 yards (4.0 YPC), including a long of 20 yards with one rushing touchdown. Etienne was involved in the passing game, catching three of four targets for 6 yards. (Target Share: 13.3%). He was back to a 73% snap share.
Trevor Lawrence contributed 45 rushing yards on two carries (22.5 YPC), including a 33-yard run.
D’Ernest Johnson added 26 yards on five carries (5.2 YPC). He played 28% of the snaps. Tank Bigsby fumbled on special teams and left the game with an injury (shoulder) after taking a huge hit.
Brian Thomas Jr. was the most productive receiver, catching two of his four targets for 94 yards (23.5 YPC), including 25 yards after the catch. (Target Share: 13.3%). I love Thomas long-term, but I hate Week 3 versus Buffalo for the Jaguars’ big-play specialist.
Jaguars No. 2 tight end Brenton Strange was targeted six times, catching three passes for 65 yards (21.7 YPC), including 16 YAC. (Target Share: 20%). Strange saw great TE deployment running a route on 72% of dropbacks with 119 air yards to boot and a 27% target rate.
Starting tight end Evan Engram was ruled out after warmups. TE Luke Farrell caught both of his targets for 13 yards.
Gabe Davis caught three of seven targets (two in the red zone) for 43 yards (14.3 YPC) with 15 YAC. (Target Share: 23%)
Christian Kirk had three targets but ended the game with -1 receiving yard on just one catch. (Target Share: 10%). Kirk did have a TD wiped off the board due to an illegal shift penalty.
I’d buy low on Kirk. We don’t know how long Engram will miss, and two bad games to open the year have tanked Kirk’s value. The Jaguars offense has not played well, and a lack of Kirk probably hasn’t helped. Given how the Bills look to limit big plays, this is a layup spot for Kirk to have a marquee double-digit game as Jacksonville looks to get back on track.
The Jags will play Buffalo, Houston, and Indianapolis over the next three games.
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New England Patriots
Buy Rhamondre Stevenson | Add Hunter Henry & Ja’Lynn Polk
The New England Patriots leaned heavily on the ground game in their Week 2 matchup, as Antonio Gibson led the charge with 11 carries for 96 yards (8.7 YPC) and a long of 45 yards.
Rhamondre Stevenson contributed 21 carries for 81 yards (3.9 YPC) and a long of 18 yards, providing solid production throughout the contest. His role as a workhorse isn’t going away, and I love the matchup on deck versus the Jets in Week 3.
Stevenson was involved in the passing game as well, catching two of five targets (18.5%) for nine yards. His 72% snap rate was just a slight downgrade from Week 1.
Antonio Gibson caught his only target for seven yards.
K.J. Osborn caught one of two targets (7.4%) for 7 yards. Austin Hooper caught one pass for 5 yards on his only target.
Jacoby Brissett completed 15 of 27 passes for 149 yards and one touchdown through the air, posting a passer rating of 83.7.
Hunter Henry was the standout receiver, catching eight of 12 targets (44.4% target share) for 109 yards and a touchdown, with an impressive 66 YAC and 84% snap share as the No. 1 target on the Patriots TE-centric offense.
Ja’Lynn Polk caught two of his three targets (11.1%) for 12 yards and one TD, and a 62% route participation in Week 1 increased to 69% in Week 2. He played ahead of Tyquan Thornton and DeMario Douglas. Polk is steadily on the incline. Stash him.
Brissett targeted WRs on just five of his pass attempts.
The Patriots will face the Jets, 49ers, and Dolphins in their next three games.
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Seattle Seahawks
Buy Jaxon Smith-Njigba | Hold D.K. Metcalf & Zach Charbonnet
The Seattle Seahawks came away with a strong offensive performance in Week 2, led by Geno Smith, who completed 33 of 44 passes for 327 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, posting a passer rating of 103.1. Chef Geno was COOKING.
Zach Charbonnet had 14 carries for 38 yards (2.7 YPC) and a rushing TD, struggling to find room on the ground. Charbonnet also contributed in the passing game, catching five of five targets (11.4%) for 31 yards, including 34 YAC. Kenneth Walker was inactive and could be out for multiple weeks.
Geno Smith added five carries for eight yards (1.6 YPC), primarily scrambling when necessary.
DK Metcalf dominated the target share with 14 targets (32% of Smith’s attempts), converting 10 receptions into 129 yards and one touchdown.
He had a long TD grab.
Per Next Gen Stats, Patriots CB Christian Gonzalez shadowed DK Metcalf, aligning across from him on 36 of 44 routes (82%), with just six of those routes in press coverage (17%).
Metcalf was targeted seven times against Gonzalez, coming away with just three receptions for 24 yards. Metcalf caught all 7 of his targets against other defenders for 105 yards & a TD.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba saw the highest target share at 16 targets (36%), catching 12 passes for 117 yards, proving to be a reliable weapon underneath and in the middle of the field with 41 YAC. He was targeted early and often. And more importantly, he has broken out of the part-time usage that hampered him as a rookie. He has a full-time role and is breaking out before our eyes.
Nearly 170 total air yards with the targets coming for JSN.
Keep this in mind regarding JSN: Last year, he had a high target rate per route run (compared to the other Seattle WRs). And now that he’s running more routes, the targets are following.
Buy high. It’s no coincidence that one of Smith’s best games came when Smith-Njigba was HEAVILY involved.
Per Next Gen Stats, Smith recorded most of his production in Week 2 in the short passing game, completing 28 of 31 passes under 10 air yards for 201 yards.
Tyler Lockett caught both of his targets (4.5%) for 15 yards. Was last week just a mirage of vintage Lockett?
Jake Bobo also had two targets (4.5%), catching both for 15 yards. Noah Fant caught one pass for 14 yards on three targets (7%).
Laviska Shenault Jr. added one catch for 6 yards on his only target (2.3%).
Seattle will host the Dolphins in Week 3, followed by the Lions, Giants, and 49ers.
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Minnesota Vikings
Sell Aaron Jones | Add Jalen Nailor & Ty Chandler
The Minnesota Vikings showcased a balanced offensive effort in their Week 2 matchup, led by quarterback Sam Darnold, who delivered through the air and on the ground. Darnold completed 17 of 26 passes for 268 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 109.1.
Ty Chandler had an impressive game on the ground, rushing 10 times for 82 yards (8.2 YPC), including a long run of 25 yards.
Aaron Jones contributed nine rushes for 32 yards (3.6 YPC) but lost a fumble, while Sam Darnold chipped in with five carries for 32 yards (6.4 YPC). He played more than in Week 1 (61% snap share), while Chandler’s snap rate remained the same at 35%. His first carry came more than halfway through the second quarter.
I don’t think the box score accurately portrays Jones as the RB1. Still, it’s a friendly reminder that Chandler has a role in this Vikings offense and that Jones isn’t the most reliable RB over a 17-game span. After a hot start, I’d be looking to cash out sooner rather than later on Jones.
The Texans are also a no-joke run defense.
Per Next Gen Stats, Houston allowed Bears running backs to gain more yards than expected on just one of 16 rushes (6.3%), their lowest rate of runs over expected since 2018. In 2023, the Texans allowed -270 RYOE to opposing running backs, the fewest in the NFL and the 3rd-fewest over the last six seasons.
Justin Jefferson dominated in the passing game, leading the team with seven targets (27%) and catching four passes for 133 yards, including 59 yards after the catch (YAC) and a 97-yard touchdown. He also left the game with a quad injury, but it’s not considered serious. Kevin O’Connell said he will be listed as day-to-day and is expected to play in Week 3.
Jalen Nailor saw four targets (15.4%) and secured three receptions for 54 yards with a TD, with 8 YAC. He played nearly the entire game with a 93% snap share. 2 red-zone targets while running a route on 100% of the dropbacks. He should play a full-time role as long as Jordan Addison remains sidelined.
Jones was targeted six times (23.1%) and hauled in five catches for 36 yards, including a massive 61 YAC.
Trent Sherfield had two targets, catching one for 17 yards and 13 YAC.
Brandon Powell was also targeted twice and caught both passes for 16 yards.
Johnny Mundt saw three targets and caught two passes for 12 yards.
The Vikings had the fifth-hardest schedule entering 2024, but they had an easy start in Week 1. In Week 2, Darnold was impressive. But it gets tougher. Weeks 3-5 before their Week 6 bye week: The Texans, Packers, and Jets in London.
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San Francisco 49ers
Buy Brandon Aiyuk & George Kittle | Hold Jordan Mason | Sell Deebo Samuel | Add Ricky Pearsall & Jauan Jennings
The San Francisco 49ers had a strong offensive showing in their Week 2 matchup, with Brock Purdy leading the way under center. Purdy completed 28 of 36 passes for 319 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception, with a passer rating of 101.3.
Jordan Mason was the workhorse back for San Francisco, rushing 20 times for 100 yards, including a long run of 22 yards (5.0 YPC). 81% snap share and six red zone carries.
Brock Purdy contributed 12 rushing yards on two attempts, while Isaac Guerendo and Deebo Samuel Sr. (two carries) combined for negative rushing yardage.
Samuel Sr. led the receiving group with 10 targets (28%), securing eight receptions for 110 yards and 19 yards after the catch (YAC). Like I said last week, Samuel is running pure right now with CMC out and Aiyuk returning slowly.
But I spoke too soon, as Deebo is expected to miss a few weeks with an injury. Injury regression is hitting this 49ers team right in the mouth after they were the NFL’s healthiest team in 2023.
George Kittle was also heavily involved, catching seven of his eight targets (22.2%) for 76 yards and one TD, including 48 YAC, proving to be a dangerous weapon after the catch. Kittle was carted into the locker room due to cramping. He should be more involved with Samuel sidelined.
Brandon Aiyuk saw five targets (14%, twice in the red zone), catching four passes for 43 yards with 3 YAC. He has four red-zone targets so far this season but zero TDs. However, his WR1 role returned in Week 1, as he ran a route on 93% of the dropbacks. He should see a major bump in production with Samuel sidelined.
Jauan Jennings was targeted four times (11.1%) and caught two passes for 37 yards. Add him as he looks to fill in the Samuel role. Also, look for Ricky Pearsall in deeper formats as a stash.
Eric Saubert saw two targets, catching both for 26 yards.
Kyle Juszczyk was targeted five times and had three receptions for 19 yards.
Chris Conley and Jordan Mason each had one target but were largely limited in the passing game.
The 49ers face the Rams, Patriots, and Cardinals in their next three games.
Blow-up game for Aiyuk coming against the LA defense.
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New York Giants
Hold Malik Nabers
Daniel Jones completed 16 of 28 passes for 178 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with a passer rating of 100.
Devin Singletary was the primary back, rushing 16 times for 95 yards (5.9 YPC) with a TD and a long run of 22 yards. Singletary was targeted once (3.6%), catching his only pass for 0 yards. But he was bellcow, earning a 79% snap share.
Daniel Jones also contributed with five carries for 32 yards, showcasing his dual-threat ability.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. added two yards on his lone carry.
Rookie Malik Nabers dominated the target share with 18 targets (64% TARGET SHARE and nearly 200 air yards), catching 10 passes for 127 yards, including a touchdown and an impressive 85 yards after the catch (YAC). He had another drop toward the end of the game, but the game plan was so clear to feed the rookie WR.
Per Next Gen Stats, Nabers was targeted on 18 of his 26 routes (69% target rate), hauling in 10 receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown. Three of his targets were in the red zone.
That is bonkers usage for the rookie. Even if the QB isn’t perfect, Nabers has a supremely high floor with this type of volume coming his way. Usually, in outlier situations like this, I’d recommend selling high on a player like Nabers. But rookie WRs have the chance to be league winners, and I don’t want to sell for anything but a king’s ransom. Just put him on the trade block and see what offers come in. You might get a strong overpay. Again, we are talking about the Giants No. 1 WR. Conversely, I wouldn’t try to acquire Nabers now for the reasons I just listed. A trade is likely way too pricy.
Darius Slayton was targeted four times (14.3%), catching three passes for 33 yards and providing key yardage in the intermediate passing game.
Wan’Dale Robinson also contributed with four targets (14.3%), catching two passes for 18 yards. But he scored and cashed the anytime TD bet. Woo!
New York will play at Cleveland in Week 3, followed by Dallas, Seattle, and Cincinnati.
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Washington Commanders
Buy Brian Robinson Jr. | Sell/Hold Jayden Daniels | Add Zach Ertz
The Washington Commanders showcased a balanced offensive attack led by quarterback Jayden Daniels, who completed 23 of 29 passes for 226 yards and no touchdowns or interceptions, earning a 99.1 passer rating.
The Kliff Kingsbury horizontal raid continued in Week 2. Per Next Gen Stats, Daniels got the ball out quickly, completing 23 of 29 passes for 226 yards while averaging 2.33 seconds to throw.
Brian Robinson led the ground game with 17 carries for 133 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per carry and a long run of 40 yards. 60% snap rate to Ekeler’s 43%. Bigger gap than in Week 1.
Jayden Daniels also contributed with his legs, adding 10 carries for 44 yards (4.4 YPC). He took more big hits. I knew this was his issue at LSU, and he seemed always to pop back up. But I’d be prepared with another QB if I rostered Daniels. Or consider flipping him for Richardson straight up after the Colts QB had a down week in Week 2.
Keep in mind that Daniels has not been used as a downfield passer despite that being one of his best attributes in the college ranks.
Austin Ekeler chipped in eight carries for 38 yards, maintaining a steady 4.8 yards per carry. Both Commanders’ RBs earned four carries inside the 20-yard line.
B-Rob had three inside the 10, to Ekeler’s two. Robinson also ran more routes than Ekeler. It’s a great matchup for the Commanders’ ground game in Week 3 versus the Bengals.
Zach Ertz was Daniels’s top target, catching four of four targets (14% of Daniels’ attempts) for 62 yards, including 16 YAC. He ran a route on 84% of the dropbacks. If you need a tight-end body, you could do worse than Ertz.
Noah Brown caught all three of his three targets (10%) for 56 yards, making big plays. He is still very much buried in the WR pecking order.
Austin Ekeler also contributed in the passing game with three receptions on three targets (10.3%), accumulating 47 yards, including an impressive 57 YAC.
Terry McLaurin had the highest target share with eight targets (28%) but only caught six passes for 22 yards, with 11 YAC. Woof.
Dyami Brown caught two of four targets (13.8%) for 17 yards. Two red-zone targets. He and Luke McCaffrey each ran a route on 61% of the dropbacks.
Olamide Zaccheaus caught three of three targets for 14 yards.
The Commanders will play the Bengals on MNF in Week 3, followed by Arizona, Cleveland, and the Ravens.
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New York Jets
Buy Breece Hall | Hold Garrett Wilson | Add Braelon Allen
Aaron Rodgers completed 18 of 30 passes for 176 yards, with two touchdowns and a passer rating of 98.7.
Breece Hall led the ground game with 14 carries for 62 yards (4.4 YPC), including a long run of 30 yards. He was held to just nine rushing yards in the first half.
Rookie Braelon Allen followed with seven carries for 33 yards (4.7 YPC), with a long of 20 yards and a rushing TD. They took Hall out after he caught a pass in the red zone, and Allen scored on the next red-zone attempt.
Garrett Wilson was targeted six times (20% target share), catching four passes for 57 yards but no TDs despite playing 96% of the snaps. Wilson has three red-zone targets so far but zero TDs this season. I don’t think we’ve seen this Jets offense truly hit its stride. However, the time is not now to buy. The schedule for Wilson is not good for the next six weeks. The Patriots (Christian Gonzalez), Broncos (Pat Surtain), Vikings, Bills, and Patriots again.
Given the Jets’ late bye week in Week 12, Wilson might be a better trade target a few weeks from now as NY’s offense gets more live reps with Rodgers.
Breece Hall also saw significant action in the passing game, with eight targets (27%), catching seven passes for 52 yards and a GREAT touchdown with a 38% target rate per route run.
Braelon Allen contributed four targets (13.3%), catching two passes for 23 yards and one TD, adding 24 YAC. Both Allen’s scores came inside the red zone.
Note that he AND Hall were in the backfield on Allen’s TD reception. It was a fake to Hall that the defense bit HARD on to open up a wide-open TD grab for Allen.
The snaps were 72% for Hall and 35% for Allen. Hall was at an 82% snap rate in Week 1.
Mike Williams was targeted once (3.3%), catching one pass for 19 yards. He made a nice sideline grab and played more than in Week 1 (65%).
Allen Lazard was targeted four times (13.3%), catching two passes for 11 yards. He operated as the WR2.
Tyler Conklin caught his only two targets (6.7%) for 10 yards. He plays all the snaps (93%) but is not part of the Jets offensive plans.
Malachi Corley was targeted once (3.3%), catching one pass for 4 yards. Jeremy Ruckert was targeted three times (10%) but did not record a reception.
I guarantee people are freaking out about Allen’s TDs as “hurting” Hall. Note that Hall was in a 50/50 committee for nearly half the season last year and finished as the RB2 in PPR. Buy.
The Patriots are next on Thursday night.
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Tennessee Titans
Buy Tony Pollard & Calvin Ridley
The Tennessee Titans struggled to find consistent rhythm offensively, led by quarterback Will Levis who completed 19 of 28 passes for 192 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 84.2. Per Next Gen Stats, Levis was pressured on 60% of his dropbacks.
Tony Pollard led the ground game with 17 carries for 62 yards (3.6 YPC), with a long run of 15 yards. 67% snap share. Tony Pollard saw 6 targets (21.4%), catching 5 passes for 40 yards, and adding 27 YAC.
Tyjae Spears added six carries for 20 yards (3.3 YPC). He was dealing with an ankle injury and had a 33% snap share.
Will Levis showed his mobility with four carries for 38 yards (9.5 YPC), including a 21-yard run.
Calvin Ridley had one carry for 10 yards for a TD.
Calvin Ridley was targeted six times (21.4% of passing attempts), catching four passes for 77 yards, including 18 YAC and one TD.
Per Next Gen Stats, Levis’ 40-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Ridley had a 16.5% completion probability, the most improbable completion of Levis’ NFL career.
Ridley actually had an earlier chance at a long TD grab that he came up just short of catching.
Through two games, Ridley leads the NFL in air yards (300). The QB play leaves much to be desired, but Ridley sees ridiculous usage in Brian Callahan’s offense.
Tyler Boyd was targeted five times (18%), catching two passes for 26 yards.
Chigoziem Okonkwo had three targets (10.7%), catching three passes for 16 yards.
Josh Whyle was targeted twice (7.1%), catching 2 passes for 13 yards.
Tyjae Spears caught both of his two targets (7.1%) for 11 yards.
DeAndre Hopkins had two targets (7.1%), catching one pass for 9 yards. He played more snaps, but is still being brought along extremely slowly.
Treylon Burks had one target (3.6%) but did not record a reception.
The Titans will host the Packers in Week 3, followed by the Dolphins and a Week 5 bye week.
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Las Vegas Raiders
Buy Brock Bowers| Add Alexander Mattison | Sell Davante Adams, Zamir White, Jakobi Meyers
The Las Vegas Raiders leaned on quarterback Gardner Minshew, who completed 30 of 38 passes for 276 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 94.7. Despite efficient passing, the Raiders’ rushing attack struggled, managing only 24 total rushing yards from their lead back.
Zamir White led the rushing game with nine carries for 24 yards (2.7 YPC), with a long of 8 yards.
He ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing EPA through two games. Sell.
Alexander Mattison had four carries for one yard and one TD. He was used at the goal line instead of White. I fully expect Mattison to take over this backfield sooner rather than later.
Davante Adams dominated in the receiving game, seeing 12 targets (32% target share), catching nine passes for 110 yards, and adding 14 YAC plus a TD score (three red-zone targets).
With Minshew at the helm, it will be a bumpy ride with Adams. Anytime he booms, he should be placed firmly on the trade block. The target volume has been there both weeks for Adams in the Raiders’ quick, short passing game, but I could see him suffering greatly in less favorable game scripts (such as the ones coming up in the next few weeks) for the Raiders.
Brock Bowers was also heavily involved, catching all nine of his targets (24% target share in the first two weeks) for 98 yards and 40 YAC, with a 32% target rate per route run while running a route on 65% of the dropbacks.
Jakobi Meyers caught four of his five targets (13% target share) for 29 yards. No WR is doing fewer with their routes than Meyers. Meyers has an 11.3% target rate per route run as Adams/Bowers command the lion’s share of opportunities in the Raiders passing attack.
Zamir White contributed in the passing game with four targets (10.5%), catching three passes for 14 yards and a notable 27 YAC. He played 63% of the snaps, with Mattison at 22%.
Tre Tucker caught both of his two targets (5.3%) for 13 yards and 19 YAC.
Michael Mayer was targeted once and had one reception for 11 yards.
The Raiders will face the Andy Dalton-led Panthers in Week 3, followed by the Browns, Broncos, and Steelers.
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Baltimore Ravens
Sell Derrick Henry | Buy Mark Andrews & Zay Flowers
The Baltimore Ravens leaned on Lamar Jackson through the air, with the quarterback completing 21 of 34 passes for 247 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, earning a passer rating of 81.4.
Derrick Henry led the rushing attack with 18 carries for 84 yards (4.7 YPC) and a long run of 29 yards and 1 rushing TD. But this was a grim way to start the game. In the first half, Henry had five rushing yards on seven carries. Two games in, and I am not exactly thrilled with how Henry has rushed behind the Ravens offensive line.
Lamar Jackson used his legs for 45 rushing yards on five carries, including a 25-yard long.
Justice Hill added four carries for 22 yards (5.5 YPC), with a long of 14 yards.
Zay Flowers was the focal point of the passing game, receiving 11 targets (32% target share) and catching seven passes for 91 yards and 1 TD, including 22 YAC.
The one constant in the Ravens’ offense through two games has been Flowers, who has a 27% target share.
Mark Andrews was targeted five times (15% target share) and brought in four receptions for 51 yards, with 16 YAC, a 63% snap share, and 73% route participation.
Isaiah Likely hauled in two of his three targets (9%) for 26 yards. He was held to a 49% snap share and sub-50% route participation. Very unusual for the Ravens to put the “Likely genie” back in the bottle after unleashing him in the season opener.
Rashod Bateman caught all three of his four targets for 40 yards.
Nelson Agholor caught one of his three targets (9%) for 13 yards.
Derrick Henry contributed to the passing game with one catch on one target for 12 yards.
Justice Hill also added two catches for 10 yards on two targets. Hill also out-snapped Henry for the second straight game. If Baltimore continues to play in more back-and-forth contests, Herny’s production will remain super volatile. Perhaps there’s a sell-high opportunity ahead of a matchup versus the Cowboys.
They will face Dallas, Buffalo, and the Bengals in the next three games.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers leaned on Baker Mayfield, who completed 12 of 19 passes for 185 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, posting a passer rating of 90.9. Despite the low volume, the offense made the most of its opportunities with explosive plays from key receivers.
Baker Mayfield led the team in rushing, with 34 yards on five carries (6.8 YPC) with a long run of 12 yards.
Bucky Irving managed seven carries for 22 yards (3.1 YPC), while Rachaad White struggled to get going, gaining just 18 yards on 10 carries (1.8 YPC). He left the game for a portion with a groin injury but returned to action. He still played 71% of the snaps, but the injury may have contributed to his lack of production.
Irving played 35% of the snaps, a slight increase from Week 1.
Chris Godwin had an outstanding day, receiving eight targets (42% target share) and catching seven passes for 117 yards, including a massive 64 yards after the catch.
Mike Evans was targeted six times (32 target share percentage), catching three passes for 42 yards and no touchdowns.
Jalen McMillan caught one of his two targets (15.8%) for 21 yards.
Rachaad White caught his one target (5.3%) for 5 yards.
Cade Otton was targeted twice (10.5%) but failed to record a reception-96% route participation.
Chris Godwin was the go-to receiver, racking up significant yards after the catch, including a long reception that helped move the chains. Through two weeks, he ranks third in the NFL in target share (33%).
Tampa will host the Denver Broncos in Week 3, followed by the Eagles and Falcons.
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Detroit Lions
Sell Sam LaPorta | Buy Jameson Williams
The Detroit Lions fought hard offensively but faced difficulty in finding the end zone despite high yardage from key players. Jared Goff led the passing attack, completing 34 of 55 passes for 307 yards, but threw two interceptions. Goff attempted 13 red-zone passes, but Todd Bowle’s defense locked the Lions out in the red zone.
Goff leads the NFL in red-zone pass attempts without a red-zone TD thrown (19).
Jahmyr Gibbs was the most effective back, with 13 carries for 84 yards (6.5 YPC), including a long run of 24 yards.
David Montgomery added 35 yards on 11 carries (3.2 YPC) and scored a rushing TD.
Jameson Williams ran once for 15 yards, while Jared Goff chipped in 2 rushes for 5 yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown dominated the target share, receiving 19 targets (35% target share), catching 11 passes for 119 yards with 32 YAC. 2 red-zone targets. He was seen hobbling after the game, but he should be okay.
Jameson Williams was heavily involved with 11 targets (20%), reeling in five catches for 79 yards. He was targeted four times in the red zone. He is tied with Courtland Sutton for the red-zone targets this season without a red-zone TD score.
David Montgomery caught all four targets (7.3%), turning them into 35 receiving yards.
Kalif Raymond was targeted four times (7.3%) and grabbed three catches for 27 yards.
Jahmyr Gibbs caught all seven targets (12.7%), though he only managed 22 receiving yards.
Sione Vaki recorded one reception for 17 yards on two targets.
Sam LaPorta and Tim Patrick saw three targets (5.5%), recording two catches each for 13 and 12 yards, respectively. LaPorta’s snaps were not limited.
Unless the St. Brown injury is serious, I am not sure LaPorta will break out of his funk anytime soon. Jameson Williams showed that his Week 1 performance is no fluke. He is a staple part of the offense. And through two games, LaPorta has been hurt the most. Unless one of the WRs or RBs goes down, I am afraid LaPorta isn’t going to turn things around. His 11.8% target rate is a bottom-5 mark for TEs this season. And the red-zone targets that went to LaPorta last season are now finding their way into Jamo’s path.
Not to mention, the Cardinals have been strong against TEs through two games this season.
Per Next Gen Stats, Aidan Hutchinson generated a team-high five pressures on 23 pass rushes in Week 2 (21.7% pressure rate), including 4.5 sacks. Hutchinson totaled three sacks in the first quarter alone.
The Lions will play at Arizona in Week 3, followed by the Seahawks and a Week 5 bye week.
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Los Angeles Rams
Sell Colby Parkinson & Kyren Williams | Add Jordan Whittington
Matthew Stafford completed 19 of 27 passes for 216 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 94.1.
Blake Corum handled eight carries, picking up 28 yards (3.5 YPC) with a long run of 9 yards in the blow-out loss. 15% snap share in total garbage time.
Kyren Williams contributed 12 rushes for 25 yards (2.1 YPC), with his longest run being 9 yards. He did score a rushing touchdown. He played 79% of the snaps.
Williams also caught four passes on five targets (18.5%), contributing 27 receiving yards, including a massive 32 YAC.
Williams was listed as a sell last week and got by with the TD. I don’t think he will be as lucky with the Rams’ offense struggling to move the ball with all their injuries. It’s possible he gets enough volume to survive, but the overall offensive struggles will hurt his total output, especially with all the OL injuries. I’d sell off the high snap share and TD score.
Demarcus Robinson was Stafford’s top target, catching two of his four targets (14.8%) for 50 yards. He has the most trust of Stafford and is likely the top plug-in option for fantasy football.
Tutu Atwell saw four targets (14.8%) as well, recording three receptions for 48 yards, though he had -1 YAC.
Cooper Kupp was targeted six times (22.2%), hauling in four catches for 37 yards. Kupp left the game with an ankle injury. Only played 52% of the snaps. He is expected to miss significant time and could be a candidate for IR.
Jordan Whittington had two targets, catching both for 22 yards, with 27 YAC. 50% snap share. He is the Rams WR I have the most interest in for the long haul. Most unknown upside that you can keep on your bench for next to nothing.
Tyler Johnson saw three targets and recorded two receptions for 20 yards, including 13 YAC. He operated as the WR2.
At this point in their NFL careers, we know who Robinson and Johnson are. Whittington is in a full-time role and should take over in the slot (Kupp’s role). The rookie played the majority of his snaps from the slot in Week 2.
Colby Parkinson caught one of his two targets for a 12-yard gain. Through two games, Parkinson has the league’s lowest target rate per route run among TEs (10.8%).
The Rams will face the 49ers, Bears, and Packers before a Week 6 bye. LA desperately needs the bye week to get their roster healthy.
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Arizona Cardinals
Buy Trey McBride | Hold/Sell James Conner
The Arizona Cardinals delivered a dominant performance in Week 2, led by an outstanding outing from quarterback Kyler Murray, who completed 17 of 21 passes for 266 yards and three touchdowns, posting a stellar perfect passer rating of 158.3.
James Conner was the workhorse on the ground, racking up 122 yards on 21 carries (5.8 YPC), with a long run of 22 yards and one rushing TD. Conner is on a heater, as he does when healthy. However, the Lions do represent a tough matchup on the ground for Arizona. With these older veteran RBs – with injury records – practice due diligence by seeing what they go for on the trade block.
Kyler Murray chipped in with five rushes for 59 yards (11.8 YPC), including a 26-yard long run.
Emari Demercado broke off a big run for 41 yards, totaling 46 yards on two carries.
Trey Benson struggled to find space, managing 10 yards on 11 carries (0.9 YPC).
Marvin Harrison Jr. led the way with eight targets (38.1%), catching four passes for 130 yards and TWO touchdowns. Interestingly enough, he could have scored even more points, having come up short twice in the red zone.
But needless to say, the one-week “buy-low” window for MHJ is long gone.
Trey McBride caught all six targets (29%) for 67 yards. Among TEs through two games, McBride leads the NFL in target share (29%). Buy low.
Michael Wilson was targeted twice (9.5%) and caught both for 31 yards, adding 8 YAC.
Elijah Higgins caught his only target for 18 yards for a TD.
Greg Dortch was targeted twice (9.5%) and caught both for 11 yards, adding 11 YAC.
Trey Benson and James Conner each had one target, with Conner catching his for 2 yards.
The Cardinals will play the Lions, Commanders, and 49ers in their next three games.
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Cincinnati Bengals
Buy Ja’Marr Chase | Sell Zack Moss | Hold Chase Brown | Add Jermaine Burton
The Cincinnati Bengals fell just short of victory in their Week 2 matchup, with Joe Burrow delivering an efficient performance, completing 23 of 36 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns. He finished with a passer rating of 103.7.
Zack Moss led the backfield with 12 carries for 34 yards, averaging 2.8 yards per carry. He played 80% of the snaps. Moss was targeted once for 13 yards and had five red-zone carries with zero TDs.
But Chase Brown had a productive day on limited touches, carrying the ball four times for 31 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per carry (including a 28-yard rush and 6-plus yard rushes on the remaining three carries).
I hate to beat a dead horse here, but Moss hasn’t been inspiring with his usage thus far. I think Cincy might switch things up in the backfield if Moss doesn’t improve. Sell Moss and hold Brown.
Alexander Mattison’s role as RB1 for the Vikings was unmatched through two weeks in 2023. We all know how that ended up.
Joe Burrow also scrambled for nine yards on six attempts.
Mike Gesicki was the Bengals’ top receiver, catching seven of nine targets (25% target share) for 91 yards, with 56 yards after the catch (YAC).
Rookie Jermaine Burton made the most of his two targets (5.6% target share), catching one for 47 yards. The Bengals need him without Tee Higgins. Add him in deeper formats.
Ja’Marr Chase caught four of five targets (13.9% target share) for 35 yards, including 19 YAC. The Chiefs force offenses to look elsewhere than their primary weapons.
Chase was horrible the first two weeks of the 2023 season. Rinse and repeat, folks.
With the Washington Commanders on deck, I cannot think of another bigger blow-up spot in fantasy football than Chase versus this atrocious Commanders secondary.
Rookie TE Erick All grabbed four of four targets (11.1% target share) for 32 yards, adding 15 YAC.
Drew Sample contributed with three receptions on three targets (8.3% target share) for 28 yards.
Andrei Iosivas had two catches for 7 yards on four targets, but both went for TD scores.
Trenton Irwin caught one of six targets (16.7% target share) for 5 yards. He was targeted five times in the red zone (four times inside the 10). Those targets will almost certainly revert to Chase next week.
I expect the Bengals to heat up with Carolina, Baltimore, Giants, and Browns as their next slate of opponents.
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Kansas City Chiefs
Add Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, Kareem Hunt | Buy Xavier Worthy | Hold/Sell Travis Kelce
Patrick Mahomes completed 18 of 25 passes for 151 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 80.6.
Isiah Pacheco led the ground attack with 19 carries for 90 yards, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, including an 11-yard run. He did suffer an ankle injury, and it did not appear initially to be serious. However, as he was seen with crutches post-game, fantasy managers should prepare for the worst.
Reports are surfacing that he fractured his fibula, setting him to miss a lot of time (6-8 weeks)
Patrick Mahomes scrambled for 29 yards on four attempts.
Carson Steele added seven carries for 24 yards and was second in the backfield with a 22% snap share.
Rashee Rice was Mahomes’ primary target, catching 5 of 6 targets (24% target share) for 75 yards, with 47 YAC and 1 TD.
Justin Watson made the most of his two targets (8% target share), catching both for 22 yards, including 10 YAC.
Pacheco was also targeted five times (20% target share), catching five passes for 21 yards, including 41 YAC.
Xavier Worthy caught 2 of 4 targets (16% target share) for 17 yards, adding 24 YAC. He ran a route on 69% of the dropbacks. Route participation was down from Week 1, but he still had a similar volume. With Marquise Brown out the rest of the regular season, buy low on Worthy after a down contest.
Jared Wiley caught his only target for 7 yards.
Travis Kelce saw limited involvement and caught one of three targets (12% target share) for 5 yards. There is no snap count limit here, folks (91%). He has two red-zone targets but zero TDs this season.
I’m not sure what other excuses we can make for Kelce. He has a great role and is seemingly healthy. The TDs will come attached to Mahomes, but the yardage/receptions numbers won’t move the needle. I’d sell after he posts a strong TD game.
Samaje Perine and Wanya Morris each caught their lone targets, with Morris scoring. Perine played 14% of the snaps.
Without Pacheco, I’d project for Steele to see work near the red zone and on early downs, with Perine also sprinkling with base work in addition to passing downs. Steele had two carries from inside the 10-yard line in Week 2.
I’d imagine Perine gets the initial crack (given his veteran presence), so I’d look to add him first.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire deserves some love in deeper formats but is currently on the NFI list. Perhaps an IR stash candidate you can sneakily add on waivers.
Kareem Hunt is also visiting the Chiefs. I wouldn’t be overly concerned about Hunt (similar to the Dalvin Cook signing in Dallas), so focus on Steele/Perine first.
However, in deeper leagues, Hunt needs to be stashed just in case.
In Week 3, the Chiefs will play the Falcons, followed by the Chargers and Saints, before a bye week in Week 6.
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Pittsburgh Steelers
Buy Jaylen Warren & George Pickens
Justin Fields managed the game efficiently, completing 13 of 20 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions, earning a passer rating of 97.3.
Per Next Gen Stats, Justin Fields faced the highest blitz rate of his career against the Broncos in Week 2 (64.3%).
When blitzed, Fields completed nine of his 13 pass attempts for 83 yards and a touchdown (+11.0% CPOE).
Najee Harris was the primary workhorse with 17 carries for 69 yards (4.1 YPC), including a long run of 11 yards. Despite strong red zone usage in the first two weeks, he has yet to find the end zone.
Jaylen Warren added 42 yards on nine carries (4.7 YPC), showing explosiveness with an 11-yard run.
Warren out-snapped Harris in Week 2 from 48% to 45%. Warren seemingly looks back to full health, making him a GREAT buy low target.
Warren was also efficient in the passing game, catching both of his two targets (10% target share) for 19 yards and gaining 20 YAC. Najee Harris caught one of two targets for 5 yards.
Justin Fields was also active on the ground, scrambling eight times for 27 yards (3.4 YPC) with a long run of 16 yards.
Cordarrelle Patterson had a limited role, carrying two times for 3 yards.
Pat Freiermuth was a reliable target, catching all four of his targets (20% target share) for 39 yards, including 13 YAC. His usage on routes remained high at 73%.
George Pickens caught two of four targets (20% target share) for 29 yards, contributing with 6 YAC.
At a quick glance, it’s easy to write this stat line as “Pat Surtain treatment.” Not quite. Pickens had a 51-yard catch (with Surtain in coverage) wiped away due to a holding penalty away from the play.
He has another TD call nullified because of OPI on Van Jefferson. Fields also missed him deep twice. Buy low.
Van Jefferson caught two passes(10% target share) for 14 yards.
Calvin Austin III caught one of his two targets for 6 yards.
Darnell Washington scored on his lone catch from the 5-yard line.
The Steelers will face the Chargers, Colts, and Cowboys in their next three games.
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Denver Broncos
Sell Javonte Williams
The Denver Broncos struggled offensively in their Week 2 matchup. Bo Nix underperformed, completing 20 of 35 passes for 246 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions. Nix finished with a passer rating of 55.2.
Nix contributed on the ground with four carries for 25 yards, averaging 6.3 yards per carry, including a long run of 13 yards. He leads the Broncos in rushing yards.
Javonte Williams was largely ineffective, rushing 11 times for 17 yards, averaging just 1.5 yards per carry. Two red-zone carries for not much production.
Tyler Badie had one carry for 16 yards, while Jaleel McLaughlin added 6 yards on three carries. McLaughlin (like Williams last week) had one touch in the second half.
Josh Reynolds was the most productive receiver, catching four of five targets (14% target share) for 93 yards, including 27 yards after the catch (YAC). He looked fantastic in his second game.
Lil’Jordan Humphrey hauled in four of five targets (14% target share) for 50 yards. He played the second-most WR snaps.
Javonte Williams was at least a factor in the passing game, catching all five of his targets (14.3% target share) for 48 yards with 48 YAC. He played 66% of the snaps.
Sell high. This Sean Payton backfield is impossible to project weekly. One week it’s Williams, the next it’s McLaughlin, etc.
Courtland Sutton caught one of four targets (11% target share) for 26 yards. Three of his targets were in the red zone.
Per Nex Gen Stats, Joey Porter Jr. lined up across from Courtland Sutton on 23 of his 35 routes (65.7%), holding Sutton to just one reception for 26 yards on a single target as the nearest defender in coverage.
Avoiding the Steelers CB1 is going to be something to monitor this season.
Greg Dulcich was targeted heavily but caught just 3 of 8 targets (23% target share and 31% target rate per route run) for 16 yards with 12 YAC. Still TE1, but horrible QB play.
Marvin Mims Jr. had one catch for 10 yards on two targets.
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Houston Texans
Buy Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell | Sell Dalton Schultz | Add Cam Akers
C.J. Stroud completed 23 of 36 passes for 260 yards, with one touchdown and 0 interceptions, finishing with a 94.7 passer rating and 7.2 yards per attempt. He struggled with accuracy, completing just 63.9% of his passes.
Cam Akers led the Texans’ backfield with seven carries for 32 yards, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 13 yards. But he also lost a fumble at the goal line and had just one target. Dameon Pierce was inactive.
Joe Mixon struggled to find much running room, carrying nine times for 25 yards (2.8 YPC). He did leave the game at one point with an ankle injury.
Mixon contributed in the passing game, catching all 3 of his targets (8% target share) for 25 yards.
Tank Dell showed some versatility with three rushing attempts for 16 yards. He also came up just short on a long TD throw from Stroud.
Dare Ogunbowale managed two carries for 3 yards. Ogunbowale caught both of his two targets for 20 yards, providing some support in the passing game.
Nico Collins was the standout performer, catching 8 of 10 targets (28% target share) for 135 yards and a touchdown, averaging 16.9 yards per reception with 47 YAC. Dude is the unquestioned alpha in this offense. Buy high.
Fading Collins because of target competition is easily my biggest L in fantasy through two weeks. And not buying enough into his 2023 body of work. Luckily, I keep profiting from betting his weekly receiving prop OVERs.
Stefon Diggs had six targets (17% target share), catching 4 passes for 37 yards.
Both Diggs and Dell underwhelmed in Week 2, and have posted modest target rates (bottom-50) through two games.
However, given a matchup against the blitz-heavy Vikings in Week 3, I’d expect both guys to be more involved as Stroud’s quick outlet. If I have to pick one, I do prefer Diggs given his low average depth of target. Also, I prefer that my undersized WRs not take a bunch of handoffs.
Dalton Schultz was targeted three times (8% target share), catching 2 passes for 21 yards. He owns the second-lowest target rate per route run (10.9%) among TEs so far in 2024.
Cade Stover and Brevin Jordan had minimal involvement, catching one pass each, while Tank Dell was held to -3 receiving yards on his lone reception.
Houston will play the Vikings, Jaguars, and Bills over the next three weeks.
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Chicago Bears
Buy D’Andre Swift & D.J. Moore | Add Khalil Herbert
The Chicago Bears struggled offensively in Week 2, with Caleb Williams underperforming and no touchdowns scored in the game.
Williams completed 23 of 37 passes for 174 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 51. He completed 62.2% of his passes, an average of 4.7 yards per attempt.
It was the good/bad combination of Williams that we saw at USC. He’s an elite playmaker who gets into trouble when he holds onto the ball for too long. Per Next Gen Stats, Williams was most efficient as a passer when getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds in Week 2.
Williams finished 15 of 18 for 95 yards on quick passes (+4.2% CPOE) and 8 of 19 for 79 yards and two interceptions when holding for longer than 2.5 seconds (-11.2% CPOE). Houston blitzed the rookie QB on nearly 42% of his dropbacks (20), the highest rate in the DeMeco Ryans era per Next Gen Stats. Williams struggled against the blitz, completing only 3 of 12 attempts for 15 yards and an interception.
Caleb Williams contributed 44 rushing yards on five attempts, with an 8.8-yard average per carry, including a 24-yard run.
D’Andre Swift was held to just 18 rushing yards on 14 carries (1.3 yards per carry), with a long of 7 yards. He played 66% of the snaps.
The Texans’ run defense is picking up where it left off last season. Per Next Gen Stats, Houston allowed Bears running backs to gain more yards than expected on just 1 of 16 rushes (6.3%), their lowest rate of runs over expected since 2018. In 2023, the Texans allowed -270 RYOE to opposing running backs, the fewest in the NFL and the 3rd-fewest over the last six seasons.
Travis Homer and Khalil Herbert combined for nine rushing yards on three attempts. Herbert did score from the red zone (as the Bears’ preferred short-yardage back). Herbie only played 9% of the snaps with Swift’s RB1 role locked in.
D.J. Moore was the primary receiver, catching six of his 10 targets (27% target share) for 53 yards, including 51 YAC. With a 28% target share in two games, the big game will eventually come from the boom-or-bust Moore. I like his odds against the Colts, Rams, and Panthers to post some strong spiked weeks.
Rome Odunze was a big-play threat, catching two of five targets (13.5% target share) for 33 yards, averaging 16.5 yards per reception, with 15 YAC.
Moore played 99% of the snaps to Odunze’s 94% rate.
DeAndre Carter caught three of four targets (11% target share) for 32 yards, with 14 YAC. He had a bigger role with Keenan Allen (heel) inactive.
Cole Kmet had five targets (13.5% target share) and caught four passes for 27 yards. His snap share increased dramatically from the week prior, going from sub-50 % to 77%. He also ran more routes than Gerald Everett.
D’Andre Swift was targeted five times (13.5% target share) and caught four passes for 14 yards.
Herbert caught two targets for 4 yards, and Gerald Everett had minimal involvement, catching two of three targets for one yard.
The Bears will face the Colts, Rams, and Panthers over the next three weeks.
The matchups alone give me some faith that the Bears offense can have a resurgence of sorts. Even though I don’t love Swift, the team is committed to him as the starter, and he should see a decent run with these upcoming favorable matchups. Be sure Khalil Herbert (Bears’ red zone back) isn’t available on any waiver wires.
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Philadelphia Eagles
Hold DeVonta Smith | Add Britain Covey | Sell Jahan Dotson
The Eagles offense had a mixed performance in Week 2, led by quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Jalen Hurts completed 23 of 30 passes for 183 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 88.6.
The Falcons did not pressure Hurts whatsoever.
Per Next Gen Stats, Hurts was pressured on just six of his 35 dropbacks (17.1%)-the 2nd-lowest pressure rate he’s faced in a game in his career.
Saquon Barkley was the workhorse back, rushing 22 times for 95 yards (4.3 YPC) with a long of 11 yards. Hurts added 85 rushing yards on 13 carries (6.5 YPC), with a long run of 23 yards.
Kenneth Gainwell had two carries for 6 yards.
DeVonta Smith led the team with 10 targets (33% target share), catching seven passes for 76 yards (10.9 YPC) with 19 yards after the catch (YAC). As long a A.J. Brown is sidelined Smith is a locked-and-loaded fantasy WR1.
Dallas Goedert had four targets (13% target share), catching all 4 for 38 yards (12.7 YPC) with 10 YAC-97% snap share.
Britain Covey was targeted six times (20% target share), catching six passes for 23 yards (3.8 YPC) with 13 YAC. He only played 32% of the snaps, but Hurts was looking his way often. Covey played ahead of both Johnny Wilson and Parris Campbell.
Jahan Dotson did what he did in Washington-played a ton (79% snap share) with nothing to show for it. He had one target on 26 routes.
Saquon Barkley added four receptions on five targets (17% target share) for 21 yards with 10 YAC. He also played a whopping 90% of the snaps.
Per Next Gen Stats, Barkley forced 10 missed tackles on 26 touches in his second game with the Eagles, finishing with over 100 scrimmage yards (95 rushing yards and 21 receiving yards) for the second time in as many games. His nine missed tackles forced are the most by any ball carrier in Week 2.
Philly will play at New Orleans in Week 3, followed by the Buccaneers and a bye week in Week 5. Expect A.J. Brown to be out with his hamstring injury until at least Week 6.
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Atlanta Falcons
Buy Bijan Robinson | Sell Kyle Pitts | Add Darnell Mooney
The Atlanta Falcons offense had an improved and solid performance behind quarterback Kirk Cousins in their Week 2 matchup, which ended up with a comeback victory.
Kirk Cousins completed 20 of 29 passes for 241 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions, finishing with a 117.2 passer rating.
Per Next Gen Stats, Cousins was 5 of 6 for 70 yards and a touchdown on the final drive, completing +26.2% of his passes over expected (compared to -4.3% entering the drive). On the night, Cousins did not complete a single pass from outside the tackle box (0 for 1), but he moved around more in the pocket than in Week 1, averaging 5.0 yards per dropback against the Eagles (compared to a career-low 3.1 yards per dropback against the Steelers).
Bijan Robinson continued to impress, rushing 14 times for 97 yards (6.9 YPC) with a long run of 19 yards on a 75% snap rate. 6.9 yards per attempt is the second-best mark of his career.
No. 2 Tyler Allgeier was also effective. He had nine carries for 53 yards (5.9 YPC) and a long run of 15 yards (also had one catch for 12 yards). Four of his nine carries came inside the red zone. Two of Bijan’s red-zone touches came inside the 6-yard line, so no need to overly panic.
Per Next Gen Stats, Robinson took a majority of his carries from under-center formations, finishing with nine carries for 78 yards on under-center runs (77.8% success rate).
Robinson ran into a stacked box on just 7% of his rushing attempts. A Sean McVay special to get lighter defensive fronts, courtesy of heavy 11 personnel usage.
He hasn’t scored yet this season, but it’s so clear that he is the engine that runs this offense. The buying window is still there for Robinson, who could easily be the RB1 when the dust settles.
Darnell Mooney led the team with seven targets (24% target share), catching three passes for 88 yards, including a long of 41 yards for a TD and 35 YAC. However, Mooney was open for chunk gains early in the contest as well. 100% snap share and over 120 air yards. As Cousins gets more comfortable and back fully from the Achilles, I anticipate Mooney to be the biggest benefactor. His speed separates him from the rest of the Falcons’ receiving corps.
WR69 ADP? Blasphemy.
Drake London also had seven targets (24% target share), catching six passes for 54 yards, with 19 YAC and the game-winning TD at the end of the game. He wasn’t creating elite separation but using his great hands at the catch point-97% snap share.
Ray-Ray McCloud had five targets (17% target share), catching three passes for 42 yards. He’s not going away as part of this offense. He has a 100% snap share.
Bijan Robinson contributed to the passing game with four catches on five targets (17% target share) for 25 yards.
Kyle Pitts was targeted four times, catching three passes for 20 yards. Pitts scored in Week 1, while the other two Falcons’ top receivers scored in Week 2. He played 74% of the snaps, a decrease from Week 1’s 96%. His routes were also down at the expense of McCloud.
This is somewhat concerning, given that Pitts’ role could fluctuate weekly. Tight end is a wasteland, so it’s not so easy to just drop him. But perhaps the excitement about the Falcons’ offense could make him part of a sell-high deal.
All in all, this is what we expected from the Falcons offense heading into the season. They used more play action than in Week 1, with T.J. Watt not wreaking havoc in the Falcons’ backfield.
The Falcons’ final drive will be a foundational block on which the team can build on as they take on the Super Bowl champions in Week 3.
Atlanta will host the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 3, followed by the Saints, Buccaneers, and Panthers.
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