Welcome back, everybody! We’ve got NFL Week 1 officially in the books and a lot to recap from ALL the action! My goal with this weekly piece is to provide you with the KEY ACTION items – waiver wire pickups, trade, add, drop, stash, buy, sell, start, sit, etc. – for your fantasy football team based on what happened the previous week. Let me do the work of scouring through the data so you can just follow my lead. As my college marketing professor always said, “Keep it simple, stupid.” The KISS mantra is at its finest.

Obviously, I’ll cite data and what I watched on film from the weekend’s past matchups, highlighting what matters most and what’s potentially just noise. I will make a strong effort to feature players coming off polarizing performances, as they are sure to be the ones fantasy managers have the most question marks about.

And I’d be more than happy to include certain tables where I see they fit and/or there is a demand.

Again, the idea behind the Fantasy Forecast has always been about identifying which players are running routes, seeing high snap shares, and earning high-value targets, as these tend to be precursors for future fantasy production. And sometimes, they don’t always appear in the normal box score.

Also new this year. An opening trade advice column and more graphics! Courtesy of FantasyPros in-house data scientist Sam Hoppen!

So, without further ado…let’s unveil the Fantasy Forecast for Week 2 to prepare our rosters for future success.

Time to ride the (Breece) lightning. Because the forecast calls for a SHOCKINGLY fun Week 2 slate.

Week 2 Fantasy Football Forecast

Jump ahead to check out my advice for each team using the table below!

 

Trade Advice

In this week’s trade advice column, I want you to consider the impact of Week 1. There are a lot of strong reactions to Week 1, even though we see things not carry over throughout the remainder of the season. Ergo, this is the week to be the most aggressive. We have one week of data, which is already causing a reshuffling of the player board. Be sure to consider the new player values based on one week, compared to their season-long expectation we spent months creating. I highly recommend using FantasyPros’ rest-of-season rankings to gauge the value of players post-Week 1. Think about how, if you redraft your entire team today, who would you target and fade based on the new rankings/perceptions? It’s a helpful way to approach thinking about trades ahead of Week 2. It also helps you recognize that certain players might have been bad bets at their season-long ADP but might now be worth the price of admission.

As for some thoughts on trades this week, elite TE is near the top of the list. All the elite TEs (tight ends with high ADPs) bombed in Week 1. Now, coming at a discount, you can take another stab at some upside without as much risk associated.

Week 1 "elite" TEs????

Travis Kelce KC: 3-34 (4 targets)

Sam LaPorta DET: 4-45 (5 targets)

Trey McBride ARI: 5-30 (9 targets)

Mark Andrews BAL: 2-14 (2 targets)

Dalton Kincaid BUF: 1-11 (2 targets)

George Kittle SF: TBD

Kyle Pitts ATL: 3-26-1 TD!!!

Evan Engram JAC: 1-5 (4…

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 9, 2024

My other approach this week is to not just think about players…think about which managers to target. Again, you can’t target TE-needy teams because almost everybody feels like they could use an upgrade.

Instead…approach the Puka Nacua, Chris Olave, Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Amon-Ra St. Brown manager about WRs. The Travis Etienne, Rachaad White, Jaylen Warren or Javonte Williams managers about RBs.

Think about how YOU can improve someone else’s roster first, then see how it can benefit you. Again, you can only make “swindles” in deals for so long. Finding a mutually beneficial trade will work best to make not just one trade but multiple trades in the long run.

Wide Receiver and Tight End routes run percentage (Week 1)

Running Back Snap Rates (Week 1)

Kansas City Chiefs

Buy Rashee Rice, Hold Xavier Worthy

Patrick Mahomes led the Kansas City Chiefs with his usual poise, completing 20 of 28 passes for 291 yards and a touchdown. However, he also threw an interception and finished with a 101.9 passer rating. Mahomes was not only efficient through the air but also chipped in 3 yards on two carries.

Rashee Rice emerged as Mahomes’ top target in Week 1, catching 7 of 9 targets for 103 yards, with an impressive 78 YAC. The second-year WR commanded a 32% target share while commanding all the short-underneath targets from Mahomes. It’s hard to see him not leading the Chiefs in most receiving categories for the 2024 season.

Xavier Worthy made the most of his limited targets, grabbing two receptions for 47 yards, including a 21-yard touchdown. Worthy added a 21-yard touchdown run on his lone carry. Worthy and Rice ran the same number of routes despite a severe target disparity.  I understand the urge to sell high on Worthy, given his two TDs on a very low volume number. But let’s zoom out. We have a first-round pick WR who came extremely close to scoring three TDs in his first NFL game. I think he will continue to be more involved as the season progresses, which is typically what we see from rookie WRs. In Week 1, Worthy still ran a route on 77 percent of dropbacks.

Noah Gray contributed 37 yards on three catches, while Travis Kelce added 34 yards on four receptions. Kelce led the Chiefs in routes run (84%) but had just a 14 percent target share. I think it’s clear that Rice will remain the primary underneath target for Mahomes, putting Kelce in a tougher position to produce unless he finds the end zone.

Isiah Pacheco was effective out of the backfield, catching two passes for 33 yards and piling up 40 YAC. On the ground, Pacheco was the lead rusher with 45 yards on 15 carries and one TD, though he struggled with only 3.0 yards per carry. More importantly, he played 80 percent of the snaps to Samaje Perine’s 15 percent. We shall see if that holds while Perine is more integrated into the offense.

The Chiefs will play the Bengals in Week 2.
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Baltimore Ravens

Add Isaiah Likely, Buy Mark Andrews

Lamar Jackson led the Baltimore Ravens to a solid offensive performance, completing 26 of 41 passes for 273 yards and a touchdown, finishing with a 90.8 passer rating. Jackson also showcased his trademark mobility, leading the team in rushing with 122 yards on 16 carries, averaging 7.6 yards per carry. Jackson seized 50 percent of the team’s rushing attempts but was also 1-for-8 as a passer in the red zone.

Derrick Henry contributed 46 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries (40% rush share) but was largely contained with a 3.5-yard average (+0.3 rushing yards above expectation per attempt). Henry failed to catch either of his two targets.

Isaiah Likely stood out in the receiving game, catching 9 of 12 targets (29% target share) for 111 yards, including a significant 72 yards after the catch (YAC). He was targeted thrice in the red zone.

Rashod Bateman (12% target share) and Justice Hill chipped in with Bateman grabbing two catches for 53 yards, while Hill caught six passes for 52 yards (19% target share) and added 63 YAC. Zay Flowers also made an impact with six catches for 37 yards on 10 targets (25% target share, two red-zone targets). Bateman was the air yards leader (120.5 air yards, 41%), while Flowers led the team in routes run (39, 94%) to go along with two red-zone targets.

Hill was heavily involved on third downs and out-snapped Henry 54 percent to 46 percent. Very similar to how we saw Henry deployed last season in conjunction with Tyjae Spears. He won’t be as effective in games where the Ravens are trailing. But when he’s a heavy favorite at home versus the Raiders (Week 2) that’s where he eats.

Mark Andrews was a non-factor in the opener, catching 2 passes for 14 yards on two targets (5% target share), while Nelson Agholor was limited to a single reception for six yards.

Andrews played 74 percent of the offensive snaps, slightly ahead of Likely’s 66 percent snap rate.  Andrews ran more routes than Likely but neither saw crazy route deployment overall. Jackson dropped back 52 times. Andrews ran a route on just 54 percent of those dropbacks. Likely ran a route on just 46 percent of the dropbacks. This isn’t elite tight-end usage for either player.

Now, I’ve looked at route participation for a few years, and these seem very low. Note that this season, I was looking to leverage NFL’s Pro Data Platform as it updates the fastest when looking at route data. But when I cross-referenced their route data with the Ravens to that of PFF and FantasyPoints, there was a noticeable difference. I suppose that it’s due to the overwhelming number of scrambles Jackson had per PFF (9). According to NFL Pro, Lamar Jackson scrambled at his third-highest rate (19.5%) in a single game since 2021. They slated him for 10 scrambles. And I estimate that during these scrambles, the receivers were not credited for routes. Just an FYI for those looking at NFL Pro data this season.

I’ll likely pivot back to PFF for full route numbers as that’s what Sam Hoppen used in the graphic above. I drew more accurate route data for the TEs, and Andrews came closer to the 70 to 75 percent range, with Likely hovering between 60 to 69 percent. Both are very good marks for TEs.

What to do with Mark Andrews

Regardless, let’s get to why you came here. What do we need to do with Mark Andrews? Famously (or infamously), I ranked Andrews as my TE1 entering this season. And I have him on a ton of my teams as a result. So, watching Thursday night was painful. And I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about how I can best recommend approaching the situation without dismissing Likely’s insane performance. After all, it’s easy for me just to say “buy low” as anybody would do after a guy they liked all draft season bombs in Week 1. But let’s dive deeper.

First off, Likely is not going away. That is a fact that I feel strongly about. All offseason, I can recall beat reports claiming how great Likely looked and how he and Jackson were building great chemistry. I am kicking myself for not buying more into that narrative and taking that more seriously in regards to Andrews. At least I bet the over on his Week 1 receiving props.

However, in those reports, there never seemed to be any concern about Likely’s breakout potential corresponding to a downfall with Andrews. Andrews was coming off an injury from last season and missed a lot of time leading up to Week 1 after suffering a minor injury in a car accident. Against the Chiefs, he was blanketed and double-covered constantly, in a horrible matchup against a Steve Spagnuolo defense that has shut down Andrews every single time they have played.

In five games versus the Chiefs, Andrews has gone over 22 yards and three catches once with zero TDs in all contests. Simply put, it was the stone-cold worst performance for a player on a prime-time game, and it was overemphasized because of how well Likely played. Still, the Ravens’ offense was not very efficient. Jackson completed one red zone pass on Thursday night despite eight attempts. Andrews has been Jackson’s GUY in the red zone throughout their time spent together, and he is also not that old. He just turned 29. We’ve seen numerous TEs be very productive well into their 30s.

If you blindly bought “low” on situations like Andrews, it would for sure be a net positive more often than not. And given the way the elite TEs played out in Week 1, I feel much less concerned about Andrews than I did initially after Thursday night.

The Ravens will play the Raiders in Week 2.
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Philadelphia Eagles

Hold Saquon Barkley, Sell Jalen Hurts

Well, the “concerns” about Saquon Barkley’s TD upside in the Eagles offense were quickly squashed in Week 1. He scored three touchdowns, one through the air and twice on the ground from inside the 10-yard line and 5-yard line. The former Giants totaled 8 red-zone touches, including two carries inside the 5-yard line.

Barkley was the clear workhorse for the Eagles, carrying the ball 24 times for 109 yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 34 yards. Barkley contributed to the passing game with 23 yards on two catches (6% target share). Kenneth Gainwell caught his lone target for 10 yards.

Jalen Hurts led the Eagles offense, completing 20 of 34 passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 80.3. Hurts also contributed on the ground, rushing 13 times for 33 yards, averaging 2.5 yards per carry. The only “concern” about Hurts was his lack of rushing TDs in this contest. The loss of center Jason Kelce was apparent on several plays, so fantasy managers need to temper expectations on the 15 rushing TDs he scored a year ago.

The passing attack was spearheaded by A.J. Brown, who turned in a dominant performance. Brown caught 5 of 10 targets for 119 yards, 29.4 percent target share, and 59 percent air yards share (111). Brown was explosive after the catch, adding 65 YAC to his total. DeVonta Smith was equally efficient, catching seven of eight targets for 84 yards, making the most of his opportunities with an impressive 52 YAC. Smith’s target share stood at 23.5 percent, providing a solid second option for Hurts.

The top two wide receivers both ran a route on 95 percent of the dropbacks, similar to their usage last year as every-down players. Goedert was behind at 65 percent as a middling tight end, with Barkley at a strong 57 percent for an RB.

The Eagles will play the Falcons in Week 2.
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Green Bay Packers

Add Tucker Kraft, Buy Jayden Reed, Josh Jacobs

Jordan Love led the Green Bay Packers offense with a solid performance, completing 17 of 34 passes for 260 yards, throwing two touchdowns but also one interception, finishing with an 83 passer rating. Love missed the last two plays of the game after suffering an injury.

He is expected to miss between three and four weeks, as the Packers did not put him on IR. However, LeFleur isn’t ruling him out of this week, although this seems like just gamesmanship than anything set in reality. Malik Willis will start in his place. Willis joined the Packers on August 26th in a trade for a 7th-round pick.

Love’s go-to receiver in Week 1 was Jayden Reed, who was explosive throughout the game. Reed caught four of six targets for 138 yards, including a massive 57 yards after the catch (YAC) and a highlight-reel 33-yard touchdown. Reed showed his versatility, adding a 33-yard run for a touchdown on his only rushing attempt. Reed commanded over 100 air yards and ran a route on 73 percent of the dropbacks.

Romeo Doubs was another key target, catching four passes for 50 yards on seven targets, though he didn’t find the end zone. Doubs (like many projected in the preseason) led the team in routes run (33, 89%).

Tight end Tucker Kraft contributed with two catches for 37 yards, including 31 YAC, making the most of his three targets. But it was no contest on who the Packers deployed as their TE1. Kraft singles, baby! Kraft ran 28 routes (76%) versus Musgrave’s eight (22%) in addition to earning two red-zone targets. But the snap differential was even more glaring: 96 percent snap share for Kraft versus Musgrave’s 25 percent. Kraft is the Packers’ TE1. Add him off waivers and cut Luke Musgrave.

Running back Josh Jacobs was also involved in the passing game, catching two passes for 20 yards on three targets. He ran a route on 54 percent of the dropbacks.

Christian Watson had three catches on five targets for just 13 yards, struggling to break loose for big gains. He did score in the red zone while running the same number of routes as Reed.

The WR usage was expected, with the top trio deployed as such with a flat target share across the board. Not sure there’s much of an action item, given the order in which the three Packers WRs were drafted. Aside from the fact that both Watson/Reed are both BUYs even after they scored in Week 1. From an eye test standpoint, Reed looked the best, followed by Watson.

Running Backs

Jacobs led the rushing attack on the ground with 84 yards on 16 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per attempt with five inside the red zone. Jacobs ran into a stacked box on just 6.3 percent of his carries. Last season, this number was at 21.5 percent. If the Packers force defenses into light boxes with their talented pass-catching group, we will continue to see an efficient Jacobs churn out yardage. Buy. Well, at least that was the case before Love went down. More to come.

Running back Emanuel Wilson made his presence felt in both the running and passing game, catching both of his two targets for 46 yards and adding 46 rushing yards on just four carries, including an 18-yard run. Wilson’s impressive outing (along with the team talking him up very early this offseason) paints a grim picture of what MarShawn Lloyd’s role could look like if/when he returns from his hamstring injury.

We know that Matt LaFleur wants to use multiple backs, so the split between Jacobs and Wilson wasn’t too surprising.  Still, Jacobs got pseudo bell cow usage with a 73 percent snap share and 18 touches to Wilson’s 24 percent and six touches. Only one time last season did a Packers RB earn a 73 percent or higher snap share. It’s happened just three times over the last two seasons.

Musgrave and Dontayvion Wicks were both targeted 2-plus times but failed to register any receptions. Wicks remains a distant WR4 on the depth chart. Nothing more than a bench stash at this point. With Love on the shelf, he can be dropped in 12-team leagues.

The Packers will face the Colts in their home opener in Week 2. Another potential shootout is on deck.

As for what managers need to do in the Packers QB situation… For me, it’s still to buy Reed. Through Week 1, he leads the NFL in receiving yards (138 receiving yards). I’m not saying this is sustainable, but it’s just a reminder of how great Reed is as a player. He is the “scheme touch” player in the Packers offense. I’m less concerned about his production with a backup QB. He might not even have to be someone you need to start anyway. The Love injury has opened a buying window for Reed. Take advantage.

As for Jacobs, I also think I’ll buy. A mobile QB under center might open up more lanes for Jacobs. And the matchup in Week 2 is divine versus the Colts’ run defense. In Mailk Willis, we trust.
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New England Patriots

Hold Rhamondre Stevenson

Jacoby Brissett managed the Patriots’ offense efficiently, completing 15 of 24 passes for 121 yards without throwing any touchdowns or interceptions and finishing with a passer rating of 75.2. Though he wasn’t asked to air it out much, Brissett leaned on the ground game to keep the offense moving.

The rushing attack was led by Rhamondre Stevenson, who was a workhorse with 25 carries for 120 yards (78% snap share) and a touchdown (two carries inside the 10-yard line), averaging 4.8 yards per carry with a long run of 17 yards. Brissett also contributed on the ground, running for 32 yards on seven carries, while Antonio Gibson added 18 yards on seven attempts.

In the passing game, tight end Austin Hooper led the way with four targets, catching two passes for 31 yards, including 19 yards after the catch (YAC), accounting for 17 percent of the team’s target share. He was targeted on 33 percent of his routes.

Tyquan Thornton was another key option, catching two of his three targets for 27 yards, making up 12.5 percent of the targets. K.J. Osborn was the most targeted receiver, leading the team with six targets, but he only managed 21 yards on three receptions, accounting for a team-high 25 percent target share. He also saw two red-zone targets with a 43 percent target rate.

Hunter Henry also caught two of three targets for 18 yards, representing a 12.5 percent target share. He ran a route on 83 percent of the dropbacks.

Demario Douglas added 12 yards on two receptions from three targets while leading the team in routes run (76%), while Stevenson was also utilized in the passing game, catching all three of his targets for six yards. Expect more three-down usage from Stevenson ROS, as he was highly involved in running routes out of the backfield (72%). Gibson really wasn’t much of a factor. Mondre is the engine of the Patriots offense.

Ja’Lynn Polk had a minimal role, catching his only target for six yards—62 percent route participation.

The Patriots will host Seattle in Week 2.
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Cincinnati Bengals

Buy Low (Everyone), Sell Zack Moss

Joe Burrow struggled to find his rhythm, completing 21 of 29 passes for just 164 yards without any touchdowns or interceptions, finishing with a modest passer rating of 86. Although his completion percentage was solid, Burrow had a tough day moving the ball downfield, failing to find the end zone and leading to an overall lackluster passing performance. Adding to the frustration, Burrow saw a potential Mike Gesicki touchdown overturned upon review, and a later fumble near the end zone cost the Bengals another scoring opportunity.

To add insult to injury, the Patriots defense wasn’t really getting after Burrow. They pressured him on only six of his 35 dropbacks (17%). Burrow just wasn’t making the throws he needed to move the ball.

Zack Moss was the primary bright spot for the offense, rushing nine times for 44 yards and a touchdown, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Moss drew two carries inside the 10-yard line on a 65 percent snap share.

Burrow added 15 yards on four carries, while Chase Brown chipped in with 11 yards on three carries. Brown sat at a 33 percent snap share.

Moss has won the first battle in the Bengals’ backfield, but I’m not sure the war is over. The Bengals’ offense was slow and sluggish in this game. Moss had multiple drops, and the team had two plays for 15-plus yards overall. If they want to change things up, we could see Brown get more involved to create juice in the offense. Sell Moss after the TD game.

In the passing game, Ja’Marr Chase was Burrow’s most reliable target, catching six of six passes for 62 yards, with 24 yards after the catch (YAC), leading the team with a 21 percent target share. He ran a route on 89 percent of dropbacks, a slight dip from last season. Makes sense, given his missed time this offseason. The Bengals are notorious for starting slow in September, so I’d buy low on their No. 1 WR after a disastrous Week 1 contest. This was Chase’s first action in a while, and he didn’t kill lineups despite the concerns about his availability.

Andrei Iosivas also had six targets, catching three passes for 26 yards and equaling Chase’s 21 percent target share. Iosivas ran a route on 100 percent of Burrow’s dropbacks. He also did not appear in the “Tyler Boyd” role, as he ran just 10 routes from the slot. Trenton Irwin was the primary slot WR. It is very possible that Iosivas will take a step back when Tee Higgins returns to the lineup.

Despite his overturned touchdown, Mike Gesicki caught three of his four targets for 18 yards, holding a 14 percent target share.

Tanner Hudson grabbed two of his three targets for 18 yards, and Zack Moss contributed with two catches on four targets for 17 yards (few drops). Chase Brown added 12 yards on three targets (catching all three), and Trenton Irwin caught one of two targets for 6 yards.

Overall, the Bengals’ offense had a frustrating day. Despite Moss’ success on the ground and Chase’s consistent play, Burrow’s passing struggles, turnovers, and missed scoring opportunities left the Bengals short of their potential.

The Bengals will look to bounce back against the Chiefs in Week 2.
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Minnesota Vikings

Sell Aaron Jones, Sam Darnold, Drop Ty Chandler

Sam Darnold led the Minnesota Vikings to an efficient offensive performance, completing 19 of 24 passes for 208 yards and two touchdowns, though he also threw an interception. Despite the turnover, Darnold finished with a strong 113.2 passer rating, managing the game well and distributing the ball to multiple playmakers.

Aaron Jones was the standout on the ground, rushing 14 times for 94 yards and a touchdown, averaging an impressive 6.7 yards per carry on a 55 percent snap rate. Jones caught two passes for 15 yards (two targets)—somewhat underwhelming pass-game usage for the Vikings RB.

Ty Chandler struggled to get going, rushing eight times for just 17 yards (35% snap share), while Darnold added three rushing yards on three carries. Myles Gaskin had a single carry for a loss of three yards.

Justin Jefferson was, as always, the focal point of the Vikings’ passing game, catching four of six targets for 59 yards and a touchdown. Jefferson accounted for a 25 percent target share in the passing game. Jordan Addison was also effective, catching all three of his four targets for 35 yards, but unfortunately, he left the game with an ankle injury, which limited his impact. Brandon Powell played the second-most WR snaps at 55 percent.

Tight end Josh Oliver contributed with 27 yards on two receptions, while Chandler also made his mark in the passing game with 25 yards on three catches, including 31 YAC on three targets. Jalen Nailor had a TD catch (47% snap share), with C.J. Ham tallied 11 yards on his two catches on two targets.

The Vikings’ offense operated smoothly under Darnold, leaning on the balanced running game led by Aaron Jones and distributing the ball efficiently through the air. Jefferson’s playmaking ability and Jones’ explosiveness on the ground were pivotal in keeping the offense moving forward, though the team will hope Addison’s ankle injury isn’t serious.

Johnny Mundt had three targets on a 53% snap share.

The Vikings had the fifth-hardest schedule entering 2024, but they had an easy start in Week 1. But that’s about as positive as it gets. Weeks 2-5 before their Week 6 bye week: Niners, Texans, Packers and Jets in London.

Note that Darnold (versus the Giants) was pressured on 42 percent of his dropbacks. Darnold and pressure are not a match made in heaven.

As mentioned, Minnesota will host the 49ers in Week 2. The Vikings won’t get to play the Giants every week.
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New York Giants

Buy Malik Nabers, Add Wan’Dale Robinson

Daniel Jones struggled throughout the game, completing 22 of 42 passes for 186 yards and no touchdowns while throwing two costly interceptions. His poor decision-making and inefficiency led to a passer rating of just 44.3, hampering the Giants’ ability to move the ball consistently. He went 1-for-6 passing in the red zone. The Jones-Giants relationship has become toxic, so I am unsure how long he will remain the team’s starter. Add Drew Lock in those SuperFlex formats. However, it might not be in Week 2, given that it is the Commanders’ defense.

soon https://t.co/CZChILkBC8

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 10, 2024

The ground game didn’t fare much better in Week 1, with Devin Singletary leading the rushing attack, gaining just 37 yards on 10 carries (3.7 yards per carry) on a 70 percent snap share. Jones added 15 yards on six carries but couldn’t provide much of a spark with his legs, either. Wan’Dale Robinson made the most of his only rushing attempt, breaking off a 14-yard run, while Eric Gray and Tyrone Tracy Jr. combined for eight yards on four carries. Tracy played just 21 percent of the snaps.

In the passing game, rookie Malik Nabers was the top performer, catching five of his seven targets for 66 yards, including 25 yards after the catch (YAC). He accounted for 17 percent of Jones’ pass attempts while running a route on 100 percent of the dropbacks on a 100 percent snap share. Robinson was also heavily involved, seeing a game-high 12 targets and catching six for 44 yards, with 10 YAC, making up 29 perrcent of the team’s target share (35% target rate). Robinson led the Giants with three red-zone targets. Jalin Hyatt was buried as the WR4. I would like to add Robinson if I am in a pinch while trading for Nabers ahead of the juicy matchup at the Commanders.

Darius Slayton added 26 yards on three catches from four targets as the WR3, while Theo Johnson caught one pass for 18 yards on four targets. It’s not all bad for the rookie. He played 86 percent of the snaps in his NFL debut, running a route on 76 percent of the dropbacks. If the Giants offense can function (who knows), Johnson could play a big role.

Devin Singletary contributed in the passing game with 15 yards on four catches (34 YAC). Eric Gray had a single catch for nine yards, and Tracy Jr. caught one pass for three yards on three targets.

The Giants’ offense struggled to find rhythm and consistency, largely due to Jones’ struggles in the passing game and their inability to generate explosive plays on the ground. Despite a solid performance from Nabers and Robinson’s heavy involvement, the Giants’ lack of execution ultimately stifled their offensive output.

The Giants are on the road in Washington in Week 2.
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Carolina Panthers

Sell (Everyone)

It was a tough outing for the Carolina Panthers as rookie quarterback Bryce Young struggled to get the offense going. Young completed just 13 of 30 passes for 161 yards while throwing two interceptions, finishing with a dismal 32.8 passer rating.

The Panthers’ rushing attack didn’t fare much better. Miles Sanders led the team with 22 rushing yards on five carries, averaging 4.4 yards per carry, but the offense lacked any real threat on the ground. Chuba Hubbard (he started and played 54 percent of the snaps) added 14 yards on six carries, while Bryce Young managed to run for 12 yards and a touchdown on four attempts. Mike Boone contributed seven yards on four carries, while Jonathan Mingo lost three yards on his only rushing attempt.

In the passing game, Adam Thielen was the most productive, catching three of four targets for 49 yards, with 18 yards after the catch (YAC), contributing to 13 percent of the target share. Jonathan Mingo was also involved, catching two of five targets for 40 yards, with a 17 percent target share. Xavier Legette led the team in targets with seven but only managed to haul in four catches for 35 yards, making up 24 percent of the team’s target share. He also was not targeted until the team was down 30-0. Legette saw four targets late into the 4th quarter—a lot of lifeless air yards (120).

WR Diontae Johnson caught two of his six targets for 19 yards (two red-zone targets). He was far from a full-time player running a route on just 69 percent of dropbacks. Odd. He was the only Panther we were drafting as a potential starter, and the lack of involvement is bizarre. Given that Johnson was jettisoned by the Steelers (who remain almost undefeated moving off WRs before it’s too late), DJ might not be worth holding onto.

Rookie tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders saw strong usage running a route on 69 percent of dropbacks. Played the most snaps among non-OL/QB Panthers players (73%).

Alas, it was all for naught.

The Panthers’ offense was plagued by poor execution and turnovers, as Bryce Young’s struggles and missed opportunities in the passing game left the team unable to generate sustained drives. Despite a few solid performances from Thielen and Mingo, the lack of explosive plays and overall offensive efficiency kept Carolina from finding the end zone. This game was over from the start, with the Panthers down 3-30 after the first half.

Carolina will host the Chargers in Week 2.
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New Orleans Saints

Buy Rashid Shaheed, Sell Alvin Kamara

Derek Carr led the New Orleans Saints to a commanding offensive performance, completing 19 of 23 passes for 200 yards and three touchdowns, finishing with an impressive 142.5 passer rating. Carr’s efficiency and poise were key in maintaining control of the game, as he spread the ball around to multiple playmakers.

Alvin Kamara paced the Saints’ rushing attack with 83 yards on 15 carries, averaging 5.5 yards per carry, including a long run of 17 yards. Kamara also found the end zone, scoring a rushing touchdown to cap off a strong performance on the ground. AK41 saw four carries from inside the 10-yard line. Kamara remained a factor in the passing game, catching five of his five targets for 27 yards.

Jamaal Williams added 38 yards on 11 carries, while Taysom Hill contributed 35 yards on five carries. Hill saw the second carry after Kamara and also came close to a red zone TD grab. Williams’ first carry came at the 11-min mark in the second quarter. He totaled nine carries from the end of the third through the fourth quarter with a rushing TD.

Carr chipped in with 13 rushing yards on two attempts.

In the passing game, Rashid Shaheed was the big-play threat, catching three of five targets for 73 yards, including a long touchdown reception to start the game. He was targeted on 29 percent of his routes and commanded over 100 air yards. I’ve noted in the past that Shaheed and Olave have posted similar numbers since entering the NFL, so I’d be all over Shaheed as the potential WR 1B in this new Klint Kubiak offense. Olave’s not dead yet (blow-out), but his debut versus Carolina isn’t ideal.

Tight end Foster Moreau also found the end zone, catching all 4 of his targets for 43 yards and a touchdown. Moreau was listed above Juwan Johnson on the Week 1 depth chart and was targeted on 36 percent of his routes. He also led the TE room with a 77 percent snap rate. Add Moreau if you need a TE in deeper formats.

Juwan Johnson added 26 yards on two catches from three targets and also scored a touchdown, while Jamaal Williams had 13 receiving yards on his lone target. Chris Olave was kept quiet, catching two of three targets for just 11 yards. They still ran a route on 88 percent of dropbacks, but it wasn’t used in the blowout victory.

Taysom Hill contributed with one reception.

New Orleans will head to Dallas in Week 2.
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Jacksonville Jaguars

Buy Travis Etienne, Buy Brian Thomas Jr., Add Tank Bigsby, Hold Christian Kirk

Trevor Lawrence completed 12 of 21 passes for 162 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 97.7.

Tank Bigsby was the standout in the backfield, rushing for 73 yards on 12 carries, including a 26-yard run, averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per carry. Travis Etienne also saw 12 carries but found less success, managing 44 yards at 3.7 yards per carry, with a long run of 11 yards. He scored and came close to a second TD but fumbled it through the end zone for a touchback. The Jaguars were on their way to going up 24-7 at the end of the third quarter. Tyreek Hill scored a long TD on the very next play for Miami’s offense. A 14-point swing in two plays.

Etienne earned all the red-zone carries for Jacksonville (4). He still has a stranglehold on the high-value touches in the Jaguars backfield and overall work (70% snap share). But give credit to Bigsby, who looked nothing like his rookie self. Definitely will be seeing a decent chunk of the carries in Jacksonville this season. Bigsby played 32 percent of the snaps.

In the passing game, Gabe Davis led with 62 yards on three catches from three targets while leading the team in routes run. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. was responsible for the team’s only receiving touchdown, catching all four of his targets for 47 yards. He was close to another TD in the end zone but was interfered with by CB Jalen Ramsey. They said on the broadcast that Ramsey was switching sides to match up more with Thomas. A lot of respect WAS thrown at the rookie WR.

Christian Kirk, on the other hand, had a quiet game, managing only one catch for 30 yards on four targets despite running a route on 85 percent of the dropbacks. He didn’t look great and was all out of sync with Lawrence. Note he missed a lot of time this offseason nursing a calf injury. He did see a bunch of downfield targets (32% air yards share, 50 air yards, which seems somewhat out of character for his usual underneath role in the offense.) I am concerned about Kirk as the true “alpha” in this Jaguars passing game. If Thomas is better than Ridley was last year (on his way), Kirk might struggle for consistent production. But Kirk bombed last year in Week 1, so I have to give it at least one more week before I jump ship.

Tight end Evan Engram was not involved in the passing attack, seeing four targets and catching just one pass for five yards, but still posted strong route participation numbers at 73 percent. Engram and Kirk are competing for the same types of targets, making it difficult for both to thrive simultaneously.

Travis Etienne also contributed to the passing game with 15 yards on two catches. He dominated the routes and targets over Bigsby.

The overall deployment of the Jaguars skill players was mostly expected, with Bigsby’s rushing role the main outlier.

Etienne and Rachaad White are in eerily similar situations. Both of their teams deployed them as absolute workhorses a year ago as they ranked first and second, respectively, in total snaps among RBs. As it stands right now (after Week 1), those snap shares seem very likely to decrease, given the presence of the other No. 2 RBs in their backfields. If they are valued similarly, I’ll still opt for Etienne, as I don’t think his job is in jeopardy. We’ve seen Bigsby flash before and fizzle out. If you have managers panicking about the split carries between Etienne/Bigsby, I’d be a buyer. White, I am less certain. More to come.

Jacksonville will host the Browns in Week 2.
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Miami Dolphins

Sell Raheem Mostert, Buy Jaylen Waddle. De’Von Achane

Tua Tagovailoa had an up-and-down day under center, throwing for 338 yards and one touchdown while completing 23 of 37 passes, finishing with a passer rating of 101. His ability to spread the ball to his playmakers powered the Miami Dolphins offense with explosive plays throughout the game. But he left plenty of big plays on the table.

In the running game, Jeff Wilson led the Dolphins with 26 yards on five carries, averaging 5.2 yards per carry, including a long run of 14 yards. De’Von Achane saw more action with 10 carries but managed only 24 yards, averaging 2.4 yards per carry. Achane found the end zone on the ground despite the modest rushing total, scoring a rushing touchdown. Tagovailoa also contributed with his legs, scrambling once for 11 yards, while Raheem Mostert struggled to gain much ground, rushing for just nine yards on six carries. Mostert had zero red-zone opportunities. Seemed like the coaching staff went to Wilson to spark the ground game late in the fourth quarter.

Per Next Gen Stats, Dolphins RBs totaled -44 rushing yards over expected. They were first in that category in 2023. Either the Jags have an elite run stuffing unit, or Miami has serious OL issues.

In the passing game, Tyreek Hill was electric, catching seven of 12 targets for 130 yards and one TD, including 85 yards after the catch (YAC). Hill consistently found open space, making defenders miss in the open field. Jaylen Waddle was also a big-play threat, catching all five of his targets for 109 yards with an impressive 41 YAC. He ran a route on 73 percent of the dropbacks.

De’Von Achane made a significant impact in the passing game as well, catching all seven of his targets for 76 yards (twice in the red zone) and an eye-popping 103 YAC, proving his versatility as a dual-threat back. Essentially, he operated as the Dolphins’ third wide receiver with a 32 percent target rate.

He did take a big hit toward the end of the game, so monitor his injury status.

Raheem Mostert contributed 10 yards on two receptions, while Jonnu Smith caught one pass for 7 yards. He played fewer snaps than Julian Hill. Durham Smythe was targeted three times but failed to secure a reception, and Braxton Berrios was held to a single reception for six yards on his two targets.

The Dolphins’ offense was explosive and balanced, with Tagovailoa leading the way through the air and Hill, Waddle, and Achane turning short passes into long gains. Miami’s ability to generate yards after the catch was the difference, as Hill and Waddle consistently made plays. At the same time, Achane’s versatility added another dimension to the attack, including his rushing touchdown.

Miami was clearly focusing on getting the ball to their three top playmakers, Hill, Waddle, and Achane.

Miami takes on Buffalo in Week 2 on Thursday Night Football.
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Houston Texans

Buy Nico Collins (and all Texans)

C.J. Stroud delivered another strong performance for the Houston Texans, completing 24 of 32 passes for 234 yards and two touchdowns, finishing with a passer rating of 115.9. Stroud showcased his accuracy and leadership as he spread the ball to a variety of targets, efficiently guiding the Texans’ offense.

According to Next Gen Stats, he picked apart the Colts’ defense with the quick passing game. He completed all but one of his 11 quick passes for 68 yards and two touchdowns. Stroud saw most of his production come against the Colts in zone coverage, completing 22 of 30 passes for 229 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts used zone coverage on 94.7 percent of Stroud’s dropbacks, the highest rate of zone coverage the Texans offense has faced in a game since at least 2018. Classic Gus Bradly Cover 3.

The Texans’ ground game was powered by Joe Mixon, who had a standout day, rushing for 159 yards on a whopping 30 carries, averaging 5.3 yards per carry. Mixon also found the end zone, scoring a rushing touchdown to cap off his impressive performance. He totaled four carries inside the 10-yard line.

Touch leaders in Week 1 NFL:

Joe Mixon – 33
Rhamondre Stevenson – 28
Saquon Barkley – 26
Bijan Robinson – 23
James Cook – 22
Kenneth Walker III – 22
Najee Harris – 21
Rachaad White – 21
Kyren Williams – 21
Alvin Kamara – 20#NFL #Week1 #FantasyFootball

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) September 9, 2024

Tank Dell contributed 19 rushing yards on two carries, including a 17-yard run, while Dameon Pierce added 16 yards on three carries. Stroud chipped in with 13 rushing yards on four scrambles.

In the passing game, Nico Collins led the way with six catches on eight targets (25% target share) for 117 yards, including 18 yards after the catch (YAC). Posted a team-high 27 percent target rate while finishing third in routes run (84%). Also led the Texans in air yards at 130 and air yards share (49%).

What I might have overlooked in my Collins fade this offseason was that he broke last season. Again, he was being drafted behind players who were all projections. Collins certainly had ambiguity regarding targets, etc., but I’m not sure how much more talent we need to see from him to be convinced he’s just going to be a great WR in this offense. He’s a human highlight reel.

Consider this stat from Next Gen Stats: Stroud’s 55-yard pass to Nico Collins had a completion probability of 16.6 percent, Stroud’s most improbable completion in his NFL career.

I’m sure Collins won’t always be the most consistent receiver in the Texans’ offense, but the highs he can deliver (like Week 1) make it worth it. Buy high.

Tank Dell added 40 receiving yards on three receptions from seven targets (87% route participation, 116 air yards), while Stefon Diggs was the star of the day in the red zone, catching six passes for 33 yards and hauling in both of Stroud’s touchdown passes on six targets. Diggs’ 25 yards after the catch played a significant role in his short-yardage touchdowns (3 red-zone targets inside the 10-yard line). He also ran the most routes at 89 percent. But he was not used downfield at all (4% air yards share). If there were a “sell-high” WR, it would be Diggs based on the TD scores. But I want as many pieces of this offense as I can get.

Joe Mixon also contributed to the passing game, catching three passes for 19 yards on three targets. Tight end Dalton Schultz caught all three of his targets for 16 yards. The Texans also spread the ball to Dare Ogunbowale, Brevin Jordan, and Xavier Hutchinson, each catching one pass for minimal gains.

Stroud’s efficient passing and Diggs’ two touchdown catches were complemented by Mixon’s dominant day on the ground, which included a rushing touchdown. The Texans’ balanced attack allowed them to control the game, with Stroud’s accurate passing and Mixon’s running keeping the offense on schedule.

The Texans will host the Bears on Sunday night football. I am looking to acquire any and all parts of this offense.
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Indianapolis Colts

Buy Michael Pittman Jr., Jonathan Taylor, Sell Alec Pierce

Anthony Richardson showcased his dual-threat abilities, leading the Indianapolis Colts to a dynamic offensive performance. Richardson completed 9 of 19 passes for 212 yards, throwing two touchdowns and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 101.2. He also made significant contributions on the ground, rushing six times for 56 yards, including a 19-yard run and a rushing touchdown.

Jonathan Taylor was the workhorse in the backfield (96% snap rate), rushing 16 times for 48 yards and scoring a key rushing touchdown, though he was largely held in check with an average of 3.0 yards per carry and a long run of seven yards. That Texans run defense is no joke. But who’s run defense is a joke? The Packers. Buy low on JT.

Both JT and A-Rich earned red-zone touches, with Taylor edging out his QB 4-2 in the red zone.

In the passing game, Alec Pierce was Richardson’s top downfield target, turning in a huge performance by catching all 3 of his targets for 125 yards, including a long touchdown reception that highlighted his big-play ability. Ashton Dulin also made an impact with his lone catch, taking it 54 yards to the house.

Michael Pittman Jr. was Richardson’s most targeted receiver (42% target share), catching four of eight passes for 31 yards, but could not break loose for significant yardage. A.D. Mitchell struggled to make an impact, catching only one of his five targets for two yards. Richardson missed Mitchell on multiple deep throws, which could have led to explosive plays. The rookie was involved whenever he ran a route, earning a 33 percent target rate while running a route on 75 percent of the dropbacks.

Tight ends Mo Alie-Cox and Kylen Granson were each targeted once but did not record any catches. Granson led the TE room in routes, FWIW.

Richardson’s ability to make plays both through the air and on the ground powered the Colts’ offense, with Pierce’s long touchdown and Taylor’s rushing score providing critical points. Despite some missed opportunities, particularly on deep throws to Mitchell, Richardson’s overall performance kept the Colts in control of the game.

The Colts will take on the Packers (led by backup QB Malik Willis) in Week 2.
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Tennessee Titans

Buy Tony Pollard

The Tennessee Titans had a tough outing with quarterback Will Levis, who struggled to find consistency. Levis completed 19 of 32 passes for just 127 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions, resulting in a passer rating of 52.5. His difficulties moving the ball through the air put the Titans’ offense in challenging situations throughout the game. Levis was pressured on nearly 50 percent of his dropbacks.

Tony Pollard led the rushing attack on the ground with 82 yards on 16 carries, including a 26-yard run on a 61 percent snap share. Pollard also found the end zone, scoring the Titans’ only rushing touchdown. Pollard was the Titans’ featured RB, and it was less than a 50/50 split, as the coaches suggested, leading up to the season.

Levis contributed 36 yards on four scrambles, with a long run of 15 yards. Tyjae Spears added 21 yards on four carries, and Treylon Burks struggled to make an impact, rushing twice for no gain.

In the passing game, Calvin Ridley was Levis’s most targeted receiver, catching three of seven passes for 50 yards, including 10 yards after the catch (YAC). Ridley accounted for a 22% target share in the offense while running a route on 92 percent of the dropbacks. He also saw 150-plus air yards (59%). It’s just like last season. All the expected yards. None of the production.

Tyler Boyd also caught three of five targets for 18 yards, making up 16 percent of the team’s targets. He was second in routes run (89%).

Chigoziem Okonkwo caught both of his targets for 15 yards with a TD, contributing six percent of the team’s targets, while Tony Pollard added 12 receiving yards on three catches from four targets (12.5% target share, 29% target rate). Okonkwo only ran a route on 55 percent of the dropbacks, so do not be swayed.

Nick Vannett was another contributor, catching 2 of 2 targets for 11 yards. Spears had 11 yards on four catches from four targets (12.5% target share), showing his versatility out of the backfield. He ran more routes than Pollard.

DeAndre Hopkins caught his lone target for 8 yards, and Treylon Burks made one catch for 2 yards on two targets. But it’s important to note that Burks played AHEAD of Hopkins, who was not 100 percent healthy after suffering a knee injury earlier this offseason. D-Hop ran a route in just 24 percent of the dropbacks…

Levis’s struggles with turnovers and the passing game limited the Titans’ offensive output. Pollard’s rushing touchdown and Ridley’s contributions through the air provided bright spots, but the overall offensive effort was hampered by the lack of consistent production and Levis’s mistakes.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Titans’ win probability was 89 percent after the start of the third quarter.

Tennessee will host the Jets in Week 2. Things are more likely to get worse before they get better for the second-year passer. That said, the Titans will likely lean on the ground game with Pollard leading the charge versus an exploitable Gang Green run defense.

Chicago Bears

Sell D’Andre Swift, Buy/Sell Keenan Allen

The Chicago Bears leaned on their defense and special teams to secure a victory despite a difficult day on offense. Quarterback Caleb Williams struggled to find a rhythm, completing 14 of 29 passes for just 93 yards, with no touchdowns or interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 55.7 and -16.1 percent CPOE.

The Bears’ running game didn’t fare much better, with D’Andre Swift leading the way, rushing 10 times for 30 yards, including a long run of 20 yards. He played 70 percent of the snaps with Roschon Johnson inactive—still just one target. Williams is not looking to check the ball down.

Williams added 15 yards on five carries, while Velus Jones Jr. had 11 yards on two carries, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt. Travis Homer and Khalil Herbert also contributed but were held to a combined 14 yards on four carries. Herbert played six snaps but did see his two carries in short-yardage situations. My concerns about Swift not seeing any high-value touches in this backfield came true in Week 1—a huge red flag.

In the passing game, D.J. Moore was the primary target, catching five of his eight targets for 36 yards, accounting for 28 percent of the team’s target share.

Keenan Allen was also heavily involved, seeing a team-high 11 targets but managing only four catches for 29 yards (38% target share) – 46 percent target rate per route run while running a route on 79 percent of the dropbacks.

He came up short twice in the red zone while also being seen limping off the field at one point during the contest. He easily could have scored.

Rome Odunze added 11 yards on one of four targets (14% target share, 85% route participation, 77% snap share), while Velus Jones Jr. caught his lone target for eight yards. Jones also saw the second backfield carry in the game behind Swift. Odunze is undergoing an MRI on his knee on Monday after he apparently injured it in Sunday’s game while blocking. It has been reported as a Grade 1 knee sprain.

Although he was inactive in Week 1, I’d expect Tyler Scott and/or DeAndre Carter to inherit the majority of WR snaps should Odunze miss any time. It’s an obvious boost for the other WRs and TEs. It makes Allen a nice trade target option for those looking for immediate production. If you have Allen as a WR3/4, I’d sell high on him with the Odunze news.

Cole Kmet had minimal involvement, catching one pass for 6 yards. D’Andre Swift and Gerald Everett also saw one target each, with Swift gaining no yardage and Everett losing a yard on his reception. Kmet’s usage was abysmal, as Everett ran a route on 64% of the dropbacks. Kmet was at 33%. Woof. He played fewer than 50% of the snaps.

Despite the offensive struggles, the Bears’ defense and special teams took control of the game. A key special teams score and a defensive touchdown gave the Bears the points needed to win. The offense played a secondary role in the victory, as the defense’s ability to generate points and the special teams’ contribution proved pivotal.

The Bears will play at Houston in Week 2.
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Arizona Cardinals

Buy Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner, Trey McBride. Add Greg Dortch

Kyler Murray led the Arizona Cardinals to a competitive offensive performance, completing 21 of 31 passes for 162 yards and one touchdown, finishing with a passer rating of 91.1. Murray was efficient, but the Cardinals’ offense struggled to find a rhythm at times, though they could move the ball effectively in key moments.

Murray was also a threat with his legs, rushing for 57 yards on five carries, averaging an impressive 11.4 yards per carry, with a long run of 29 yards.

James Conner provided the bulk of the groundwork, rushing 16 times for 50 yards, including a 20-yard burst, and scoring a crucial rushing touchdown. Conner handled three carries inside the 10-yard line as well.

Trey Benson added 13 yards on three carries, while Greg Dortch chipped in with a 4-yard rush.

In the passing game, Dortch was Murray’s top target, catching six of eight passes for 47 yards (70-plus air yards). He made up 26 percent of Murray’s total attempts, and in the game’s final play, Murray went deep to Dortch, though the attempt fell incomplete. Dortch operated as the WR3, but Murray often went to him on the field (35% target rate per route run).

Conner also contributed to the passing game, catching 3 of 4 targets for 33 yards, showcasing his ability as a dual-threat back. This pass-game usage was lacking for Conner last season, so seeing his receiving role increase is encouraging. With a great matchup on deck versus the Rams run defense, expect the Cardinals to keep feeding Conner.

Tight end Trey McBride saw the most targets, catching 5 of 9 passes for 30 yards, but struggled to create big plays (29.0% target share). Among the elite TE Week 1 performances, McBride’s is the least concerning, given his target volume and high-end route participation (third on the team in routes run). He also saw 76 targets and was a few passes away from a very productive outing.

Michael Wilson made his presence felt with a touchdown catch on his lone target (second in routes run), while rookie first-rounder Marvin Harrison Jr. had a quiet outing, catching just one pass for 4 yards on three targets. He also had a drop. His limited involvement was notable as the Cardinals could not integrate the talented rookie into the offense. It was not for a lack of playing time, as he led the team in routes run (33) at 95 percent. He was also wide-open at the end of the game. Many thought the horizontal raid would end after Kliff Kingsbury’s departure, but Murray was not productive going downfield. He completed just one of five attempts of 10-plus air yards. The Bills historically have been great at defending big plays, and they certainly did so in this matchup. They left a safety over the top for much of the game against Harrison. The Rams and their no-name defense that Jameson Williams destroyed on Sunday night football should be a better matchup for Harrison.

Emari Demercado added 26 receiving yards on two catches, all of them coming after the catch. Elijah Higgins had 12 yards on two catches from two targets.

While Murray’s dynamic playmaking and Conner’s rushing touchdown kept the Cardinals competitive, the offense struggled to connect on big plays downfield, particularly with rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. Wilson’s touchdown was a highlight. Still, the offense could not capitalize on key opportunities, including a deep shot to Dortch on the final play.

Arizona will host the Rams in Week 2.
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Buffalo Bills

Buy Keon Coleman, Drop Curtis Samuel, Buy Dalton Kincaid

Josh Allen delivered a standout performance for the Buffalo Bills, excelling through the air and on the ground. Allen completed 18 of 23 passes for 232 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing nine times for 39 yards and scoring two rushing touchdowns. His dual-threat performance propelled the Bills’ offense to a convincing win, finishing with a 137.7 passer rating.

James Cook led the ground attack with 19 carries for 71 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry with a long run of 15 yards. Allen’s mobility was also displayed, as he added both rushing touchdowns. Ray Davis contributed 13 yards on three carries, while Ty Johnson managed 7 yards on two carries before leaving the game with an injury.

More notably, although very much under the radar, Cook seized two carries inside the 10-yard line with one carry inside the 5-yard line. Allen scored both his rushing TDs from inside the 10-yard line.

Khalil Shakir was a key target in the passing game, catching all three of his passes for 42 yards, including a shifty touchdown score, with 31 yards after the catch (YAC), representing 13 percent of the team’s targets. He was second among the WRs in routes run at 70 percent. Mack Hollins also found the end zone, catching both his targets for 25 yards and a score. He ran a route on 67 percent of dropbacks.

Keon Coleman led the team in receiving yards and routes run (90%), catching four of a team-high five targets for 51 yards (22% target share). He was also the team’s air yards leader (95, 28%), and he had a strong 23 percent target rate.

James Cook was also active in the passing game, catching all three of his targets for 32 yards, showcasing his versatility.

Dawson Knox caught one of his two targets for 23 yards. Marquez Valdes-Scantling hauled in his only catch for 19 yards, while Curtis Samuel had two catches for 15 yards on two targets. Samuel was not involved with just eight routes run.

Ray Davis added 14 yards on one reception, and Dalton Kincaid caught one of his two targets for 11 yards. Kincaid was second on the team in routes run at 83 percent, but he wasn’t targeted until very late into the game. Regardless, the route participation is elite for a tight end. The theme of this week’s article is to buy low on the underwhelming elite tight ends.

Josh Allen’s performance, with two rushing touchdowns and two passing touchdowns to Shakir and Hollins, led the Bills’ offense to an efficient and balanced display. Keon Coleman and Cook provided key contributions in the passing game, while Allen’s rushing ability helped solidify the Bills’ victory.

The Bills will play Miami on Thursday night.
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Pittsburgh Steelers

Sell Najee Harris, Buy Jaylen Warren, George Pickens, Pat Freiermuth

The Pittsburgh Steelers managed to secure a victory without finding the end zone, relying solely on field goals to defeat their opponent. Quarterback Justin Fields had an efficient day, completing 17 of 23 passes for 156 yards, though he didn’t throw any touchdowns or interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 91.9. The offense moved the ball effectively but couldn’t break through in the red zone.

Najee Harris led the rushing attack, carrying the ball 20 times for 70 yards, averaging 3.5 yards per carry, with a long run of 20 yards. Fields added 57 rushing yards on 14 carries, consistently using his legs to keep drives alive. Cordarrelle Patterson chipped in with 13 yards on four carries (13% snap share), while Jaylen Warren, who was limited in his return from a hamstring injury, had seven yards on two carries. He played just 31 percent of the snaps. Would be looking to sell high on Harris as the current starter with Warren eating into his work upon his return to the starting lineup.

George Pickens had one rush for a loss of 10 yards. Arthur Smith overthinking again.

Fields (4) and Harris (5) combined for nine red-zone carries (two apiece, but neither was able to find the end zone).

Shocking nobody, the Steelers PROE (pass rate over expectation) was +13.2% in Smith’s debut as the Steelers OC.

In the passing game, Pickens was Fields’ favorite target, catching 6 of 7 passes for 85 yards, accounting for 30 percent of the team’s targets (35% target rate, 71% air yards share). Pickens didn’t even run his full sample of routes from last season (76%), making him an interesting trade target. Week 2 will be tough against Patrick Surtain, so be patient when trying to acquire Pickens.

Tight end Pat Freiermuth was also involved, catching 4 of 4 targets for 27 yards, making up 17 percent of the team’s targets. Posted strong route numbers at 76 percent.

Jaylen Warren contributed in the passing game as well, catching both of his targets for 13 yards. MyCole Pruitt had a minor contribution with nine yards on his lone catch from two targets. Najee Harris caught one pass for nine yards on two targets (41% route participation), while Calvin Austin III, Darnell Washington, and Van Jefferson were barely involved as receivers.

The Steelers’ inability to finish drives in the end zone was offset by a strong kicking game, as field goals were their only source of points. Despite the struggles in scoring, Fields’ efficient passing and the contributions from Pickens and Harris helped the Steelers move the ball, ultimately securing the victory through special teams.

Pittsburgh will head to Denver for Week 2.
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Atlanta Falcons

Hold Everyone (For Now), Add Ray-Ray McCloud

The Atlanta Falcons struggled offensively in their matchup. Quarterback Kirk Cousins completed 16 of 26 passes for 155 yards, throwing one touchdown and two interceptions for a passer rating of 59. The team moved the ball inconsistently, relying on short gains but failing to generate explosive plays.

Bijan Robinson led the ground game, rushing 18 times for 68 yards, averaging 3.8 yards per carry, with a long run of 13 yards. Tyler Allgeier chipped in with 21 yards on three carries and a long of 13 yards, while Cousins had one rush for no gain. Robinson handled the lone carry inside the 10.

In the passing game, Ray-Ray McCloud was the most productive receiver, catching 4 of 7 targets for 52 yards, accounting for 27 percent of the team’s total passing attempts with a 39 percent target rate.

Robinson was effective in the passing game as well, catching all five of his targets for 43 yards representing 19 percent of the team’s target share. He was a bell cow with an 89 percent snap rate. Allgeier sat at a lowly 13 percent. It was the first time Robinson surpassed an 80% snap share per Next Gen Stats.  As the Falcons’ schedule eases up look for Robinson to be a major benefactor.

Tight end Kyle Pitts was targeted three times, catching three passes for 26 yards with a TD, contributing 12 percent of the target share. Darnell Mooney and Drake London each had three targets, with Mooney catching one pass for 15 yards and London also catching one for 15 yards. Charlie Woerner caught his lone target for four yards.

London, Mooney, and Pitts ALL ran a route on 100% of Cousins’ dropbacks. Pitts played 96 percent of the snaps.

Cousins chose violence and threw it to McCloud anyway.  He only played 54 percent of the snaps.

Although I had my reservations about Drake London meeting the expectations of his high-end second-round ADP, this isn’t the time to sell. He will still have better games upcoming. Remember this time last year he also posted a Week 1 dud just to rebound in Week 2. That’s when you sell high on the Falcons hype.

Despite solid individual performances from McCloud and Robinson in the passing game, Cousins’ turnovers and the team’s inability to establish a consistent rhythm prevented the Falcons from sustaining long drives. The ground game was effective but couldn’t provide the spark the offense needed, and the team’s passing game was limited by Cousins’ mistakes.

The sky is falling with the Falcons after a tough Week 1. But there’s no denying that they should improve down the line with some more favorable matchups. As I wrote about when I first looked at the 2024 schedule, this was not going to be an easy start. The Steelers, Eagles, Chiefs, Saints and Buccaneers open the first five games for the Dirty Birds.

The Falcons will take on the Eagles Monday night in Philadelphia. But I am eyeing post-Week 3 as the stretch where they could open things up. My one concern is how run-heavy the Falcons were in Week 1. Per Kevin Cole, their PROE was -9.7%. Great for Bijan. Not for the WRs.
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Denver Broncos

Sell Javonte Williams, Add Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime

The Denver Broncos had a tough day offensively, with quarterback Bo Nix struggling to find success in the passing game. Nix completed 26 of 42 passes for 138 yards, throwing 2 interceptions and no touchdowns, resulting in a passer rating of 47.5. The Broncos offense was able to generate only one touchdown, which came on the ground from Nix himself. It was a predictably conservative approach from Nix. Per Next Gen Stats, Nix completed 21 of 27 passes under 10 air yards for 75 yards. He went 0-5 passing in the red zone for TDs.

Nix led the Broncos’ rushing attack with 35 yards on five carries, including a 23-yard touchdown run that accounted for Denver’s only score. Jaleel McLaughlin carried the ball 10 times but only managed 27 yards, while Javonte Williams had 8 carries for 23 yards (52% snap share). Seattle stacked the box on 50 percent of Williams’ rushing attempts.

Audric Estimé contributed 14 yards on two carries (fumbled), including a long run of 12 yards. Williams started but McLaughlin was involved throughout. Both guys were used in the red zone (although Denver wasn’t there much).

The ground attack for Denver was abysmal in Week 1 versus Seatle. Doesn’t help that LT Garrett Bolles was also injured during the game. Estimé’s fumble has bought more time for Williams as the starter, but the lack of juice from the Broncos’ run game and overall offense is very concerning.

Williams only ran a route on 41 percent of the dropbacks, while McLaughlin settled at 29 percent. The target rates were stark, with McLaughlin seeing a 41 percent target rate compared to Williams’ 11 percent.

Javonte’s lack of pass-game work is also a red flag. With the upcoming schedule – PIT, @TB. @NYJ – I’m not sure Sean Payton will stay patient enough with Williams if he falters in any way, even through tougher matchups. More than happy to “sell low” amid what could be a tough stretch of games for Denver.

In the passing game, Josh Reynolds led the team with eight targets, catching five passes for 45 yards, accounting for 19% of the team’s targets as the Broncos’ WR2 in usage, running a route on 84 percent of the dropbacks. Rookie Devaughn Vele was highly efficient, catching all eight of his targets for 39 yards, with 23 yards after the catch (YAC), representing 19 percent of the target share – a 31 percent target rate for the Day 3 rookie. He was the WR3 running a route on 61% of the team’s dropbacks.

Courtland Sutton was the most targeted player and ran the most routes, seeing 12 passes come his way, but he managed only four catches for 38 yards, contributing 29 percent of the team’s targets. 143 “prayer yards.” Nix throwing the ball downfield was no good. Why Denver elected to go away from the RB check-down game is beyond me.

Tight end Greg Dulcich caught 2 of 3 targets for 12 yards (7% target share). But it was clear that Dulcich was operating as the TE1 running a route on 69 percent of routes.

Fullback Michael Burton caught his lone target for three yards.

McLaughlin was involved in the passing game as well, catching 5 of 5 targets for one yard – a 42 percent target rate per route run.

Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Adam Trautman were each targeted once but didn’t record any catches, while Javonte Williams was targeted twice with a lone reception. Marvin Mims Jr. also went without a catch on his lone target – a 16 percent route participation. It’s over.

The Broncos’ offensive woes were highlighted by their inability to move the ball consistently through the air, with Nix’s rushing touchdown providing the lone bright spot. Turnovers and lack of production in the passing game ultimately led to a difficult day for Denver.

The Broncos will host Russell Wilson and the Steelers in Week 2.
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Seattle Seahawks

Add Geno Smith, Buy Kenneth Walker, Hold Seahawks WRs

The Seattle Seahawks leaned on a balanced offensive attack and contributions from their running backs to secure a victory. Quarterback Geno Smith completed 18 of 25 passes for 171 yards, throwing one touchdown and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 87.2. Ryan Grubb’s new offense was highlighted by Smith getting rid of the ball quickly. Smith got the ball out quickly averaging his third quickest time to throw (2.54 seconds) since joining the Seahawks in 2019 versus the Broncos. They also used motion on 79 percent of their offensive plays – a stark increase from 53 percent in 2023.

Though Smith had a solid performance, the running game and key plays from the backfield were pivotal in the Seahawks’ success.

Kenneth Walker III had an impressive day on the ground, rushing for 103 yards on 20 carries, including a 23-yard burst, and scoring a rushing touchdown on a 66 percent snap share. KW3 also earned the Seahawks two red-zone carries and two red-zone targets.

Zach Charbonnet also found the end zone on the ground, rushing eight times for 12 yards, while Geno Smith contributed 30 yards on four scrambles, including a 34-yard TD run.

In the passing game, Tyler Lockett led the way with six catches on seven targets for 77 yards, accounting for 28 percent of the team’s passing attempts (35% target rate), while DK Metcalf caught three of four targets for 29 yards while running a route on 93 percent of the dropbacks. Lockett ran the fewest routes among the trio of WRs and was the most productive on just a 54 percent snap rate.

Per Next Gen Stats, Pat Surtain shadowed Metcalf on 24 of his 25 routes (96%). Charbonnet was also effective through the air, catching two of three passes for 29 yards, including a receiving touchdown, contributing 12 percent of the target share.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught both of his targets for 19 yards (8% target share, woof), and tight end Noah Fant added 11 yards on two catches from four targets. Fant ran a route on 71 percent of the dropbacks but still couldn’t get it done.

JSN ran a route on 89 percent of dropbacks and still couldn’t get it done.

Walker also contributed to the passing game, catching two of his three targets for six yards.

Charbonnet’s versatility as both a runner and receiver, with touchdowns in both phases of the game, paired with Walker’s strong performance on the ground, allowed the Seahawks to control the tempo.

The Seattle Seahawks will head to New England in Week 2. Not the best matchup for a shootout. But Weeks 3 and 4? Let’s go. Matchups against the Dolphins and Lions.

Ergo, you have to hold this Seahawks WRs for those upcoming matchups.
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Washington Commanders

Add Zach Ertz, Buy Terry McLaurin, Add Luke McCaffrey 

Jayden Daniels powered the Washington Commanders offense with a dual-threat performance through the air and on the ground. Daniels completed 17 of 24 passes for 184 yards, finishing with a 93.1 passer rating, but it was his rushing ability that made the biggest impact. Daniels rushed 16 times for 88 yards and scored two crucial rushing touchdowns, averaging 5.5 yards per carry with a long run of 17 yards.

Brian Robinson Jr. complemented Daniels in the backfield, carrying the ball 12 times for 40 yards and one TD, while Austin Ekeler contributed 10 yards on two carries. One of Ekeler’s carries came inside the 20-yard line, but B-Rob saw two inside the 10-yard line. Daniels’ scores technically “took away” scoring opportunities from Robinson. Still, B-Rob led the backfield with a 56 percent snap rate compared to Ekeler’s 53 percent.

In the passing game, Ekeler was the most productive receiver, catching all four of his targets for 52 yards, with an impressive 54 yards after the catch (YAC), accounting for 17 percent of the team’s total passing attempts. Robinson was also a factor in the passing game, catching three of four passes for 49 yards with 50 YAC, making up 17 percent of the team’s targets. He was hyper-targeted, given he only ran seven routes.

Zach Ertz was a reliable target, catching three of his four targets for 28 yards (17% target share). Luke McCaffrey added 18 yards on three receptions from three targets, while Terry McLaurin was held to 17 yards on two catches from four targets (78 air yards, 59 percent air yards share, and 88% route participation). Ertz ran a route on 79 percent of the dropbacks.

McCaffrey was second with a 71 percent route run rate and snaps played.

Olamide Zaccheaus contributed 15 yards on his lone catch from three targets.

Jamison Crowder and J. Bates were each targeted once, with Crowder catching his pass for 5 yards.

Daniels’ two rushing touchdowns were the highlight of the game, as his dynamic ability to move the ball both on the ground and through the air kept the Commanders’ offense balanced. Ekeler and Robinson’s involvement in the passing game provided key support.

The Commanders will host the Giants in Week 2.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Add Baker Mayfield, Add Bucky Irving, Jalen McMillan, Sell Rachaad White

Baker Mayfield had a career day, leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a commanding offensive performance. Mayfield completed 24 of 30 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns, finishing with a stellar 146.4 passer rating, as the Buccaneers offense clicked from start to finish.

On the ground, Bucky Irving led the rushing attack with 62 yards on nine carries, including a 31-yard burst, averaging 6.9 yards per carry. Rachaad White struggled to find running lanes, managing just 31 yards on 15 carries (long of 15 yards), while Mayfield added 21 rushing yards on three scrambles.

White averaged -2.1 rushing yards over expectation per attempt – the second-worst mark in Week 1.

The Buccaneers starter still played 70 percent of the snaps to Irving’s 31 percent.

As I teased in the Jaguars’ section, the White/Irving split is somewhat concerning. White saw a 70 percent snap share or less one time last season. And it was in a game where he struggled immensely as a rusher averaging fewer than 2 yards per carry. Irving steps in immediately as a rookie and excels rushing in the new scheme orchestrated by new OC Liam Coen. Irving was handpicked by Coen during the NFL Draft as a plan to lessen White’s workload. And rookie RBs (especially Day 3 picks) don’t usually play this much.

I never felt truly “in” on White during draft season, although my rankings would not have dissuaded drafters away from him. White’s pass-catching is still top notch, but his continued struggles as a rusher are hard to ignore.

Given that Irving is my favorite RB to target off waivers this week, it makes me hesitant on White long-term. Don’t think he goes to zero due to the receiving, but the carries could shift dramatically if Irving is just more efficient in this rushing scheme. Keep in mind that other than being undersized and not overly athletic, Irving was a talented RB prospect from Oregon. His 3.11 yards per play rank in the top five in the class.

In the passing game, Chris Godwin led all receivers with 8 catches on 8 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown, accounting for a 27 percent target share and 30 percent target rate. White was also a key contributor in the passing game, catching all 6 of his targets for 75 yards, with an impressive 107 yards after the catch (YAC), making up 20 percent of the team’s targets with a 32 percent target rate.

Mike Evans had another standout game, catching 5 of his 6 targets for 61 yards and finding the end zone twice (three red-zone targets), representing 20 percent of the team’s passing attempts. He did the majority of his damage against Commanders CB, Benjamin St. Juste.

Godwin and Evans both ran a route on 82 percent of the dropbacks.

Jalen McMillan also contributed with a touchdown, catching one of his three targets for 32 yards. He almost caught another TD earlier in the game.

The volume wasn’t there, but McMillan was highly active – 88 percent route participation.

Trey Palmer added 19 yards on one catch from two targets, while Irving chipped in 14 receiving yards on two catches on three targets. Tight end Cade Otton was targeted twice, catching 1 pass for 5 yards. 88% route participation.

Mayfield’s four touchdown passes—two to Evans, one to Godwin, and one to McMillan—powered the Buccaneers’ offensive explosion. Godwin’s efficiency, combined with Evans’ knack for finding the end zone and White’s versatility in the passing game, kept Tampa Bay in control throughout the game.

The Bucs cornerbacks were devasted by injuries in this contest, setting them up for another shootout versus the Lions in Week 2.
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Las Vegas Raiders

Sell Zamir White, Add Alexander Mattison, Buy Brock Bowers

Gardner Minshew completed 25 of 33 passes for 257 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 95.1.

In the running game, Zamir White led the Raiders with 44 yards on 13 carries, averaging 3.4 yards per carry with a long run of 12 yards. He only played 38 percent of the snaps.

Alexander Mattison added 19 yards on five carries (60% snap share), while Minshew scrambled for five yards on three attempts. Jakobi Meyers also contributed with a 3-yard rush.

In the passing game, Meyers was efficient, catching all three of his targets for 61 yards (9% target share), including 21 yards after the catch (YAC). He ran a ton of routes (88%) but was not heavily targeted on a per-route basis.

Davante Adams was the top target, catching five of his six targets for 59 yards, accounting for 18 percent of the team’s passing attempts.

Rookie tight end Brock Bowers had a strong game, catching six of his eight targets for 58 yards, leading the team with a 21 percent target share and 31 percent target rate. Elite level usage for the rookie tight end, who also ran a route on 78 percent of the dropbacks.

Alexander Mattison was also active in the passing game, catching 4 of 6 targets for 43 yards and a score, with a remarkable 50 YAC (18% target share). He played a lot as the primary receiving back, running a route on 60 percent of the dropbacks. Note that rookie RB Dylan Laube was inactive, which gave Mattison a clear path to work on third downs.

Tre Tucker made an impact as well, catching 2 of 3 passes for 22 yards. He played a ton for a WR3, running a route on 83 percent of the dropbacks.

Tight end Michael Mayer caught 2 of 3 targets for 3 yards (40% route participation), while Zamir White contributed 2 yards on 2 catches from 2 targets. He only ran a route on 25% of dropbacks. Typical two-down grinder back that suffered in a negative game script.

LV will head to Baltimore off a 10-day rest in Week 2.
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Los Angeles Chargers

Sell J.K. Dobbins, Buy Josh Palmer

Justin Herbert led the Chargers to a balanced offensive performance, completing 17 of 26 passes for 144 yards, one touchdown, and no interceptions, finishing with a 92.5 passer rating. While Herbert’s passing yards were modest, he efficiently spread the ball around to multiple receivers.

The star of the day was J.K. Dobbins, who dominated on the ground with 135 rushing yards on 10 carries, averaging an impressive 13.5 yards per carry, including a 61-yard touchdown run that showcased his explosiveness. Per Next Gen Stats, Dobbins posted a career-high +98 rushing yards over expected. He scored from the 12-yard line and led the backfield with a 58% snap share.

Gus Edwards contributed with 26 rushing yards on 11 carries. Edwards had 3 red-zone carries to Dobbins’ 2. Dobbins had the lone carry from inside the 10.

In the first half, the carries/snaps favored Edwards, but Dobbins broke out in the second half. However, it should be noted that he was caught from behind on some of his long runs. Dobbins is explosive, but it’s clear that very top-notch gear is still lacking due to all the lower body injuries. As somebody who was pounding the table for Dobbins all offseason (and for someone who is just happy to see him healthy), I am thrilled with Week 1. But I want to be realistic.

As I discussed with @FBInjuryDoc, Edwin Porras, he suggested that Dobbins start strong (see Week 1) but fail to sustain production for the long haul. It pains me to write this, but as I loved Dobbins so much as a selection, but the sharp move might be just to cash out while you can. It’s possible Dobbins could have an outlier “Raheem Mostert 2023” season, but that’s not practical. At least put him on the trade block and see what bites.

In the passing game, Ladd McConkey led the team with seven targets, catching five passes for 39 yards (27% target share, 33% target rate), with a fourth quarter TD – 76 percent route run rate.

Quentin Johnston was another key contributor, catching 3 of his 5 targets for 38 yards, making up 19% of the target share. He was a starter running a route on 83% of the dropbacks.

Tight end Hayden Hurst had a solid outing, catching 2 of 3 targets for 33 yards (11.5% target share).

Hurst is the TE to own in LA (low bar) after he ran a route on 79 percent of the dropbacks.

Joshua Palmer added 15 yards on 2 receptions from 4 targets (0-for-2 in the red zone with no TDs), though he struggled to generate much yardage. He still was the Chargers route leader at 93% despite getting ejected in the fourth quarter.

Will Dissly caught his lone target for 13 yards.

J.K. Dobbins had limited involvement in the passing game, hauling in 2 passes for 4 yards. Gus Edwards was targeted once but did not record any receptions.

LAC will head to Carolina in Week 2.
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Dallas Cowboys

Sell Rico Dowdle, Add Brandin Cooks

Dak Prescott led a balanced Dallas Cowboys offense to victory, completing 19 of 32 passes for 179 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, finishing with a passer rating of 85.3. While Prescott didn’t put up huge passing numbers, the Cowboys’ ground game and key contributions from their top playmakers helped secure the win.

Ezekiel Elliott started and led the Cowboys’ rushing attack, gaining 40 yards on 10 carries and scoring the team’s lone rushing touchdown. Rico Dowdle added 26 yards on 8 carries, while CeeDee Lamb also chipped in with 25 rushing yards on 3 carries, including a long run of 12 yards.

Elliott also contributed in the passing game, catching 2 passes for 9 yards with 13 YAC, while Dowdle added a 6-yard reception on one target. Neither RB saw a lot of run as a receiver running routes out of the backfield.

Zeke scored on his lone carry from the 3-yard line. They split snaps near 50/50, with Zeke drawing a 51 percent clip to Dowdle’s 44 percent. It’s a full-blown committee which means we need an injury for a guy to truly emerge. Move on from Dowdle unless you have room on your bench for a high-end handcuff.

In the passing game, Lamb was Prescott’s favorite target, catching 5 of 10 passes for 61 yards. Lamb accounted for a 31 percent target share and over 110 air yards. Brandin Cooks was also heavily involved, catching 4 of 7 targets for 40 yards and one TD, representing 22 percent of the team’s targets with 83 percent route participation. He played the most WR snaps. His targets should be consistent with Ferguson sidelined.

Fullback Hunter Luepke made an impact, catching both of his targets for 18 yards. Tight end Jake Ferguson was another key contributor, catching 3 of 5 targets for 15 yards, while rookie Jalen Brooks caught his lone target for 18 yards. Ferguson left the game with an injury (confirmed later to be an MCL sprain). Jalen Tolbert caught one pass for 12 yards on 2 targets (69% route participation).

Kavontae Turpin was targeted once but did not record a reception.

Luke Schoonmaker would be expected to start in Ferguson’s absence but it might still be a committee.

Dallas will host the Saints in Week 2.
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Cleveland Browns

Sell Deshaun Watson, Buy Amari Cooper, Jerome Ford, Add Jerry Jeudy 

The Cleveland Browns offense had a tough outing, with quarterback Deshaun Watson struggling through the air. Watson completed 24 of 45 passes for just 169 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, finishing with a passer rating of 51.1. His inability to consistently connect with his receivers and turnovers hindered the Browns’ offensive production. He was constantly under pressure (45%) which led to six sacks. They had one first down in the first half. WOOF.

Jerome Ford led the Browns’ ground attack, rushing for 44 yards on 12 carries and 1 TD, averaging 3.7 yards per attempt on a 75 percent snap rate. There was no sign of D’Onta Foreman as a goal-line vulture with Ford seeing all the Browns’ carries from inside the 10-yard line. Foreman played one snap.

Watson chipped in with 39 rushing yards on five carries, including a long run of 16 yards. Pierre Strong Jr. contributed 10 yards on two carries.

David Njoku was the most productive pass-catcher, hauling in 4 of 5 targets for 44 yards, with an impressive 30 yards after the catch. But he also left with an injury (reported as a high ankle sprain). Tight end Jordan Akins added 27 yards on 3 receptions from 4 targets. Akins is a strong add in deeper TE formats. He has a long track record with Watson dating back to their days in Houston.

Jerry Jeudy was targeted 8 times (18% target share, 79% route participation, 115 air yards) but caught only three passes for 25 yards and 1 TD (two red-zone targets), while Ford was effective in the passing game, catching 6 of 7 targets for 25 yards (23% target rate). Strong contributed 20 receiving yards on two catches, while Amari Cooper had a quiet game, catching only 2 of his 9 targets for 16 yards (20% target share, 95% route participation). Watson missed him deep for a walk-in touchdown. He was targeted twice in the red zone. Over 100 air yards. You know what to do. Cooper’s boom-or-bust mantra remains undefeated. Buy. Low.

Elijah Moore was limited to 9 yards on 3 catches from 6 targets, and rookie Cedric Tillman caught his lone target for 3 yards. Moore operated as the clear-cut WR2 but couldn’t overcome the bad QB play.

The Browns will take on the Jaguars on the road in Week 2.
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Los Angeles Rams

Add Colby Parkinson, Sell Cooper Kupp, Add Demarcus Robinson, Jordan Whittington

Matthew Stafford had a busy day under center, completing 34 of 49 passes for 317 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, finishing with a passer rating of 85.2. While the Rams moved the ball well, they were dealt a significant blow when wide receiver Puka Nacua left the game with a knee injury and did not return. He reaggravated his preseason injury and has already been placed on IR.

Kyren Williams led the ground attack, rushing 18 times for 50 yards and a touchdown, while playing 91% of the offensive snaps. He was the focal point of the backfield, contributing in both the running and passing games. Ronnie Rivers, not Blake Corum (who played 0% of the snaps), served as the RB2, rushing 2 times for 16 yards. However, Williams struggled with his efficiency, posting 2.8 yards per carry and -1.1 rushing yards per attempt over expectation.

Cooper Kupp and Nacua each contributed a carry, with Kupp gaining 10 yards on 2 carries and Nacua adding 7 yards on 1 carry.

In the passing game, Kupp was the focal point, receiving a whopping 21 targets (43% target share), catching 14 passes for 110 yards and a touchdown (158 air yards and 54% air yards share). He played nearly every snap running a route on 98% of the dropbacks while commanding three red-zone targets.

With Nacua out, Kupp is slated for a billion targets for the next month. But how sustainable are 20-plus targets per game for a 31-year-old WR. Not to mention, Nacua will likely return at some point and the Rams OL is dealing with major injuries. At this moment, Kupp’s value may never be higher. Sell for the farm.

His ability to generate 42 yards after the catch (YAC) kept the Rams’ offense moving. Tyler Johnson was another key contributor, catching 5 of 7 targets for 79 yards with 66 YAC, accounting for 14% of the team’s passing attempts. He ran a route on 67% of the dropbacks as the Rams WR3.

Tight end Colby Parkinson, who played 88% of the offensive snaps, caught 4 of 5 targets for 47 yards, while wide receiver Demarcus Robinson, who played 92% of the snaps, added 42 yards on 4 receptions from 7 targets (14.3% target share, 82 air yards).

Parkinson saw elite level usage for a fantasy-viable tight end running a route on 82% of the team’s offensive dropbacks. Must target waiver wire tight end.

Nacua, before exiting with his knee injury, caught 4 of 4 targets for 35 yards. Williams also contributed to the passing game, catching all 3 of his targets for 40 yards. He did post a very low target rate (8%).

Rookie Jordan Whittington had a rushing TD negated by a penalty.

Stafford’s lone passing touchdown went to Kupp, who led the charge offensively, but Nacua’s injury and the team’s inability to finish drives hindered their chances of putting up more points. Despite the loss of Nacua, the Rams relied on their key playmakers—Kupp, Williams, and Robinson—to keep the offense balanced.

The Rams will play at Arizona (shootout on deck) in Week 2. They might be undermanned given the vast amount of injuries they suffered in Week 1 from Nacua, tackle Joseph Noteboom, G/C Steve Avila and Kevin Dotson. Head coach Sean McVay has already stated the team will look for offensive line help.

I’m selling Williams high off the snap share alone. This OL mess could be problematic, and I don’t expect Corum to be a total zero for the rest of the season. As for the Rams’ ancillary receiver to add in the wake of Nacua’s injury. It’s Robinson first. But then I will opt for the rookie Whittington over Johnson. Everything I read this summer about Whittington was his role was that of the primary backup to Nacua/Kupp. With a full week to prep, i’d expect him to have a larger role at the expense of Johnson.
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Detroit Lions

Buy Jameson Williams

Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions secured a hard-fought OT victory in their latest matchup, with Goff completing 18 of 28 passes for 217 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, resulting in a passer rating of 85. His ability to distribute the ball and lead the offense, despite the turnover, helped the Lions to a balanced offensive attack.

On the ground, David Montgomery dominated with 17 carries for 91 yards and a touchdown, including a long run of 21 yards. He averaged 5.4 yards per carry and was the clear workhorse in the backfield. Second-year RB Jahmyr Gibbs contributed 40 yards on 11 carries but struggled to find running lanes, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. He split snaps with Monty 50/50.

Per NFL’s next-gen stats, the Lions offense totaled 163 yards and 2 touchdowns across 31 carries resulting in a 67.7% rushing success rate, their highest in a game since Week 17, 2020, including the Ben Johnson era.

Montgomery generated a 70.6% success rate. He generated positive EPA on each of his 5 carries in overtime, totaling 45 yards and the game-winning touchdown (cashing the anytime TD bet).

The star of the receiving game was preseason hype machine, Jameson Williams, who exploded for 121 yards and a touchdown on 5 receptions from 9 targets, with a massive 69 yards after the catch (YAC). Williams’ big-play ability was on full display, as he constantly made defenders miss after the catch, accounting for a 32% target share and 117 air yards.

Jamo earned an 85% snap share, running a route on 94% of the dropbacks to go with a 62% air yards share. He’s a full-time player now and showcased Sunday night that’s he is going to break out in 2024. I was definitely skeptical about Williams’ potential in a crowded offense, but I think he’s put the entire NFL on notice. Don’t forget how great Williams was as a prospect, just to have his first two years derailed by injuries and a suspension.

Tight end Sam LaPorta also played a crucial role, catching 4 of 5 targets for 45 yards. His reliable hands were key for Goff in the short-to-intermediate passing game. Usage was still very solid, as he ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks.

Gibbs contributed as a dual threat, catching 4 of 6 targets for 34 yards, including 58 YAC, showcasing his ability to make plays in space. 33% target rate.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was quieter than usual, catching just 3 of 6 targets for just 13 yards on a 100% route participation, while Montgomery added 2 receiving yards on his lone target. The Sun God’s 6 targets were the lowest he’s seen in a game since Week 13 last season. That was the only time in 2023 he saw fewer than six targets. It never happened in 2022 in a game where St. Brown was fully healthy. It’s a buy-low situation, but chances are the Sun God manager won’t budge.

Brock Wright chipped in with a 2-yard reception on his only target.

The Lions’ offense was balanced, using both the run and pass effectively. Montgomery was the engine on the ground, while Williams made the highlight plays in the air. Despite Goff’s interception, Detroit managed to maintain control of the game and find the end zone when it mattered most.

Both RBs were used a ton near the red zone, each seeing 3 carries inside the 10-yard line.

They will host the Buccaneers in Week 2.
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New York Jets

Add Allen Lazard, Sell Tyler Conklin

The New York Jets faced a difficult game as their offense struggled to keep up after falling behind early. Aaron Rodgers completed 13 of 21 passes for 167 yards, throwing 1 touchdown but also 1 interception before being replaced by backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor, who entered late in the game after it was already a blowout in the fourth quarter. Taylor went 6 for 8, adding 36 yards and a touchdown to the Jets’ stat sheet.

In the backfield, Breece Hall led the Jets’ rushing attack with 16 carries for 54 yards (3.4 YPC), with a early TD rush from inside the 5-yard line. Braelon Allen and Tyrod Taylor each had one rushing attempt for 8 and 7 yards, respectively, with Allen coming in late in the game when the result was already decided. Hall still played 82% of the snaps overall.

Through the air, Allen Lazard was the primary target, commanding 9 targets (29.0%) and turning that into 6 catches for 89 yards and 2 touchdowns (one in garbage time). Lazard was the clear WR2 over Mike Williams. Lazard played 100% of the snaps to Williams’ 18% (9 snaps).

Garrett Wilson had a team-high 11 targets (35.4%) but only managed 6 catches for 60 yards despite leading the team in routes run. Breece Hall also contributed in the passing game with 5 targets (16.1%), converting 3 of those into 39 yards, including an impressive 45-yard catch and run. Braelon Allen had 1 target for 8 yards, and Tyler Conklin finished with 2 targets (6.5%) for 6 yards despite a 96% snap share.
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San Francisco 49ers

Add Jordan Mason, Buy Brandon Aiyuk, Sell Deebo Samuel 

The San Francisco 49ers handled their matchup with ease, leaning heavily on Jordan Mason, who started at running back due to Christian McCaffrey being declared inactive before the game. Mason played 81% of the offensive snaps and dominated the backfield with 28 carries for 147 yards (5.3 YPC), including a 24-yard run and a rushing touchdown. Deebo Samuel Sr. also contributed on the ground, taking 8 carries for 23 yards and scoring a rushing touchdown.

Brock Purdy managed the game efficiently, completing 19 of 29 passes for 231 yards, without throwing a touchdown or an interception.

In the passing game, Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samuel were the top targets. Jennings commanded 5 targets (17.2%) and caught all 5 for 64 yards, while Samuel also saw 9 targets (31.0%), catching 5 for 54 yards, including a notable 36 yards after the catch. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk chipped in with 3 targets (10.3%) for 2 receptions and 40 yards.

Tight end George Kittle was also involved with 5 targets (17.2%), turning them into 4 receptions for 40 yards (another elite TE bust). Kittle still led the team in routes run. Brandon Aiyuk had a quiet day, receiving 5 targets (17.2%) but only securing 2 catches for 28 yards. He played fewer snaps than he usually does at a 60% clip but still ran just as many routes as Samuel. Buy low. He had a predictably slow star, that some managers will hold against him.

Conversely, I’d sell high on Deebo Samuel. We do this same old song and dance with the 49ers players all the time. Samuel smashes when other guys are out or limited. But we know with his injury history the good times don’t always last.

Jordan Mason had one target but didn’t record a reception.
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