Let’s dive into Andrew Erickson’s fantasy football draft strategy for the middle rounds. He shares fantasy football draft tips and targets. And you can find his full perfect fantasy football draft strategy to dominate your competition.
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Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
Approach to Round 5
At the start of the middle rounds of drafts, you must come prepared with an optimal and flexible approach. Following up on a strong start is critical to your success. The player pool isn’t as strong as at the beginning of the draft, but the difference in hitting on the right guys in this range can make or break your roster. Don’t try to be perfect; get as many shots on the net as you can.
Four rounds deep, you have already drafted a good chunk of your team. This is your core. Your strategy may differ slightly depending on the foundation you built during the early portion of your draft. Ergo, if you already roster three strong running backs (or at least ones you spent high draft capital on) there’s virtually no need to address the position in any capacity. Depth, especially in leagues where you have access to the waiver wire, tends to be overrated in fantasy football.
The overarching approach to the middle rounds remains static for the most part regardless of what you already did. The focus is still on drafting the best player available (BPA). Too often drafters make the mistake of drafting for need in the middle-rounds – when the priority should be filling your roster with as many potential level jumpers or league-winners as humanly possible. Especially at the wide receiver position. Because it’s easy to find plug-in production (especially at running back) later on. Focus on drafting players that have difference-making upside in their range of outcomes.
The name of the game with wide receivers is to scoop up value in the middle-to-later portions of drafts, with the position counting for the biggest part of your roster in leagues that require you to start 3 WRs. Take advantage of WRs that fall in ADP, while other teams “reach” on running backs they think they need. The same goes for the reverse narrative. Take advantage of RBs that fall in ADP while others reach on subpar wide receivers they think they need.
You will be shocked how quickly the WR position dries up despite the false narrative that the position is deep every year. It’s not deep. If anything, it’s extremely diluted, which makes it much more essential you draft the remaining wideouts toward the start of the middle rounds. You’ll feel (and perform) much better knowing you aren’t trudging out WRs ranked outside the top 40 as your weekly WR3.
Wide receivers in the middle rounds tend to take massive leaps and vastly outperform their ADP. When in doubt, keep drafting WRs that have breakout potential. Chances are they all won’t hit…but all you need is one to hit big to reap the benefits. Draft rookie WRs. Aggressively.
Gravitate toward the pass-catchers in a high-powered offense with some target ambiguity versus the guy who has a more obvious high-end target floor in a bad offense. And do not shy away from the real-life No. 2 WRs…as these players often represent the best fantasy values because their ADPs are almost always suppressed as they aren’t their team’s “No.1.”
But be wary that you need to be price-sensitive to these WR2s. For example, last season, the most expensive WR2s – Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins – failed to live up to expectations.
The majority of cheaper real-life WR2s by ADP – Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, Jordan Addison, Courtland Sutton, Puka Nacua, Brandin Cooks, Romeo Doubs/Jayden Reed – were excellent value selections who drastically beat their ADPs.
Some of my favorite WR targets from rounds 5-9 (picks 50-100) include Rashee Rice, Amari Cooper, George Pickens, Xavier Worthy, Tank Dell, Calvin Ridley, Ladd McConkey, Tee Higgins, Chris Godwin, Diontae Johnson, Brian Thomas Jr. and Christian Watson.
In 2024 early drafts, some of the cheaper real-life No. 2 WRs include Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Jordan Addison, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Watson, Jameson Williams, Jakobi Meyers, Adonai Mitchell and Joshua Palmer.
Make sure you are getting the real-life No. 2 WR discount. Because you should be, or else it’s a bad deal.
In Round 5 specifically, you’ll want to bolster depth with the next tier of wide receivers and/or running backs. But do your best to push RB out as much as possible in this range coined the “RB Dead Zone.”
Try to go WR or even elite tight end first before another running back. Elite QBs may also be drying up at this point, so don’t be afraid to pull the trigger if a top-tier passer falls.
Round 5 Players to Target
Approach to Round 6
Many of the elite quarterbacks will be off the board before Round 6. If you desire a QB, draft whichever top-tier passer – if any – remains. The opportunity cost of drafting an elite quarterback is so much better in Rounds 5-7 versus Rounds 2-4.
And as always, don’t feel pressured to draft a signal-caller because there are still plenty of great options in the following rounds. Oftentimes one slips into Round 7 or 8, such as Kyler Murray or Jordan Love (Round 6 ADPs).
If there is a potential breakout running back/wide receiver available, continue to exhaust the remaining running backs and wide receivers available atop the 2024 fantasy football rankings.
Again, to hammer your edge at wide receiver, you need to hit on these discounted No. 2 WRs in the middle-to-late rounds as the actual difference-makers/level-jumpers. The RB Dead Zone and the WR Shred Zone are the same.
Another thing to consider is that scoring tends to be flatter. Again, you have the elite WRs at the top. Last season, the top five scorers were at 17+ points per game (PPG). They were also top-seven overall picks in ADP.
If you can draft a truly elite fantasy WR in rounds 1-2, as alluded to at the top, it’s worth it. But after the elite guys, we see things stagnate and scoring flatten. Wideouts ranked sixth to 20th fluctuate between 15.0 and 12.5 PPG. Receivers from the 21st to the 46th score between 12 and 9.5 PPG.
The significant point drop after the elite tier (top-five) indicates a flatter scoring curve for the wide receivers ranked sixth and beyond, up to WR48 (WR4 range). This flatter scoring curve implies the difference in fantasy output among the WRs in these lower tiers is less pronounced than the gap between the top five WRs and the rest.
Given this distribution, the data suggests it’s a viable strategy to wait on drafting WRs after the elite options are off the board, particularly in drafts where the value of securing top performers at other positions (such as running backs or quarterbacks who may have a steeper drop-off in scoring) could outweigh the benefits of selecting a WR outside the top five. The reasoning here is that you might still be able to draft WRs with similar scoring expectations later, allowing you to maximize value at other positions in the earlier rounds.
The standard deviation from WR6 to WR20 (0.84 points per game) is almost identical to WR21 to WR46 (0.92 points per game). The scoring is clustered around their group’s average and less spread out.
Ergo, non-elite fantasy WRs tend to just be fantasy WR2s. And low-end fantasy WR2s are just a massive tier that leaks into the WR4 range.
So it’s not really, WR1, WR2 WR3, etc. It’s more like elite, WR2 and WR4 as the 3 tiers of WRs based on last year’s scoring.
This supports the strategy of potentially waiting to draft WRs after the top performers are off the board, as the variance in performance increases, but it doesn’t drastically change once you move past the top 20 WRs.
If a WR in the middle rounds looks and smells cheap, they probably are. And the same goes for if you feel they are overvalued. They most likely are.
Because inherently the way WR scoring is, the guys with higher ADPs are more difficult bets to return on their ADP. They are preferred for a reason – upside arguments, etc. But there’s no denying you can always grab another WR a round later that will probably meet or potentially exceed a player before them in scoring.
However, you must acknowledge you can’t keep punting off the WR position because there is ANOTHER cliff after the WR4 tier. Eventually, you need to compile points at the position, even if it’s neutral or -EV selection at the time of drafting.
At least this is how the points were distributed last season.
Be firm and concise in creating three tiers for WRs, with an elite tier (potential for top-five scoring), a top-20 tier and then a 21-48 range tier where you can pick your flavor. Based on the site draft ADP you can mix up your WR exposure in this range.
For me, the top five WRs are clear as day. It’s not until we get to D.J. Moore that things start to taper off in the back-end WR2 range. And after we hit Calvin Ridley as my WR34, there’s a clear drop-off in the WR rankings with rookies entering the conversation.
Round 6 Players to Target
Approach to Round 7
Only once you’ve got a plethora of breakout WRs to work from do I permit you to dive back into the running back pool before we enter the double-digit rounds. I can guarantee you will feel better about overloading with WR breakouts than settling for an RB2 because you have to.
Because after WRs, breakout RBs are the next target in the middle rounds. Specifically, once the drafts enter the late RB2/early RB3 range (RB20-RB38) or RBs with a top-40 ADP.
That group presented the greatest hit rate for fantasy running backs.
Running backs that hit in this general range last season: James Conner, James Cook, D’Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, Rachaad White, David Montgomery, Isiah Pacheco, Brian Robinson Jr., Raheem Mostert and Kyren Williams.
Keep in mind that the majority of RBs in this range can be found in my Tier 4. Here are some of my favorites in 2024: James Conner, Tony Pollard, Jaylen Warren, Devin Singletary, Brian Robinson Jr., Chase Brown, Blake Corum and Javonte Williams.
You can find the full-tiered rankings in my 2024 fantasy football rankings.
Identify running backs with the potential to see/possess goal-line roles in high-scoring offenses. Pinpointing a team’s primary red zone back is an easy way to hit on a fantasy running back.
Last year’s examples? Kyren Williams, Raheem Mostert, Isiah Pacheco, Javonte Willaims, Gus Edwards
If you are low on the “starter” you should naturally be higher on the No.2 RB in the same backfield.
Didn’t believe in Cam Akers, Najee Harris, Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, Dameon Pierce or Alexander Mattison in 2023? You should have drafted Kyren Williams, Jaylen Warren, Chuba Hubbard, Zamir White, Devin Singletary or Ty Chandler.
Target impending free agent running backs. The biggest hits from 2023 include Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders and Jamaal Williams. Last year it wasn’t as successful, but I’d trust the process. Especially with almost the same crop of RBs likely playing on one-year deals again.
Notable free agents at the end of the 2024 season include J.K. Dobbins, Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, James Conner, Samaje Perine, Najee Harris (declined fifth-year option), Jaylen Warren, Jeff Wilson, Javonte Williams, Justice Hill, Chuba Hubbard, Kenneth Gainwell, Elijah Mitchell, Khalil Herbert, Cam Akers, Rico Dowdle, D’Onta Foreman and A.J. Dillon.
Target running backs on quality offenses (cumulative offensive ADP deemed above average).
How do you find league winners in fantasy football?
Draft players on good offenses✅
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 26, 2024
Aim for running backs on teams with no clear-cut starter ie. ambiguous backfields. This is where breakout running backs are often found.
Other major hitters were running backs that boasted pass-catching chops. Volume is and remains king. When in doubt, draft the guy who has a proven track record.
Do not prioritize running backs on offenses that have not yet proven to be above average while treading lightly on running backs that don’t have a lot of job security. With running backs, ask yourself: What would it take for RB “X” to lose the starting job?
Fade early-season opportunities in favor of late-season production when the weeks and points become more critical in specific formats. You need to strike a balance between early and late-season production.
Hitting on the right running back late can be the true difference-maker.
Round 7 Players to Target
Approach to Round 8
For the remaining onesie positions, you are once again playing the value game.
My favorite QBs to target in the middle rounds (picks 50-100) include Kyler Murray, Jordan Love and Jayden Daniels.
The same approach goes for the tight end position. By zero means am I willing to draft a tight end in the middle rounds that doesn’t have elite upside. And again, they need to fall into ADP. That’s why using tiered rankings is so critical to your success, as it helps you unearth draft values by preventing reaches.
“Stay out of the middle” at tight end.
The only tight ends I am actively targeting in the middle rounds (considering ADP) are Jake Ferguson, David Njoku and Brock Bowers. You miss out on that crop, keep on waiting. I recently got Dallas Goedert in a draft several rounds after his ADP as the last manager to draft a TE. If you miss out on an elite TE, kick back and wait.
Round 8 Players to Target
Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Check out the consensus 2024 fantasy football draft rankings from our experts.
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